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FXUS63 KMPX 041806 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1206 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

KEY MESSAGES
- A few light snow showers or flurries still possible later today and tonight, but minimal impacts expected.

- Highs in the 50s still likely along and south of I-94 in MN Wednesday and Thursday.

- More seasonable temperatures next weekend, and the forecast continues to trend dry.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 257 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

TODAY AND TOMORROW...Light winds and some low level moisture led to areas of fog across the region this morning. This was radiation fog, so it visibility should start to improve as southerly winds increase later this morning ahead of a shortwave trough, and the fog transitions to more of a stratus deck. This shortwave trough should produce some light snow showers or flurries as it passes through the region, but measurable precipitation is unlikely except possibly along the Minnesota River Valley in southwest Minnesota, and also in western Wisconsin Monday night as another area of precipitation will redevelop. Rain/snow is the most likely precipitation type, becoming more snow Monday night. By Tuesday the system will have moved east, so expect dry conditions with clearing skies and light northerly winds.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...An impressive warm up will commence on Wednesday and last through the end of the work week as an area of lee-side warmed air develops over the High Plains, and moves eastward across the Upper Midwest. We increased afternoon highs above the blended guidance, with most locations expected to be in the 40s, and 50s on Thursday. Record highs are within reach. Forecast highs are at 49 at KEAU, 51 at KMSP, and 48 at KSTC, and records are 49 at KEAU, 54 at KMSP, and 53 at KSTC.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A fairly strong storm system will track across Canada, and this will escort a trailing cold front with small chances for rain/snow through the Upper Midwest which will cool off temperatures back into the 30s for highs, and upper teens for lows this weekend and early next week.
Meanwhile another large system will develop over the Ohio River Valley, but this too will most likely miss us to the southeast.
As the previous discussion mentioned, no significant weather systems expected anytime soon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1206 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Stratus blankets the area once again, though there is a clearing line in the stratus over western MN that is obscured on satellite by mid level clouds ahead of the shortwave currently up by Bismark. How far east this clearing makes it is a bit uncertain, but it does look to have enough umph behind it to get to at least AXN & MKT to go along with RWF. As for that shortwave, best chance of some light snow tonight based on RAP forecast soundings is at EAU, which is where the entire atmospheric column becomes saturated (all other terminals are battling a dry layer below 8k ft). This wave will also bring IFR/MVFR cigs back into western MN, though delayed the arrival of those cigs several hours based on the lack of lower clouds upstream in the Dakotas. Clouds will be clearing out on Tuesday, but that doesn't really look to happen in earnest until after 16z Tuesday.

KMSP...You can't completely rule out snow this evening between roughly 1z and 6z, though that chance does not warrant a mention in the TAF at this point. CIGS have been slowly trending up through the morning, so still do expect MVFR cigs this evening, though a return to IFR cigs looks likely tonight. We're still far out for the clearing Tuesday afternoon, but based that timing on what we see from the HRRR, though the 15z RAP forecast sounding keeps the cloud layer saturated into Wednesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind SSW 15G25 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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