Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Warrenton, OR

SHORT TERM
Now through Thursday morning...A frontal system continues to move east through the area, bringing widespread rain through the region until early Thursday morning. Expect total rainfall accumulations around 0.25 to 0.50 inch in the valley lowlands, 0.50 to 0.75 inch along the coast, and 1.00 to 1.25 inch in the Coast Range and Cascade foothills. Latest probabilistic guidance suggests a 40-50% chance to exceed 0.50 inch for the valley lowlands, a 40-50% chance to exceed 0.75 inch along the coast, and 30-50% chance to exceed 1.25 inch in the Coast Range and Cascade foothills.

Snow returns to the Cascades, with 4 to 8 inches more snow accumulation expected through early Thursday morning (heaviest during late Wednesday). Guidance has trended lower in probabilities, with NBM suggesting a 20-40% chance to exceed 4 inches of snowfall and HRRR suggesting a 40-60% chance to exceed 6 inches by early Thursday morning. While guidance probabilities have lowered, the expected range of snowfall accumulations will still likely be impactful to Cascade passes.
As a result, will maintain the current Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades, which is currently set to end on 4 AM Thursday.

The Upper Hood River Valley (above 1000 ft) has the potential for freezing rain accumulation up to 0.10 inches this morning, but have refrained from issuing an advisory as current guidance gives rather low confidence/probabilities in freezing rain.
Specifically, there is a 10-30% chance for freezing rain accumulation up to 0.10 inch this morning around the Parkdale area. Will keep an eye on the Upper Hood River Valley and latest model updates this morning.

Winds along the coast begin to increase this morning, with gusts up to 50 mph expected during the morning, then decreasing gusts up to 40 mph by the afternoon and up to 30 mph by tonight.
Inland locations (generally in the Willamette Valley) will also see elevated southerly winds, highest in the afternoon with gusts up to 40 mph expected. The Columbia River Gorge will see easterly wind gusts up to 35-45 mph this morning, then shift southwesterly in the afternoon and decrease into early Thursday morning. To give some context, these increased easterly winds in the Gorge are supported by a -5 to -6 mb pressure gradient from Troutdale to the Dalles. The southerly winds within the Willamette Valley are supported by a pressure gradient around -5 to -6 mb from Portland to Eugene. ~Hall

LONG TERM
Thursday Afternoon through Tuesday...Models and their ensembles remain in good agreement of upper level ridging building over the region later this week. Expect a mostly dry day on Thursday. But with clouds, temperatures only warm into the lower 50s. Most clusters keep the area dry on Friday, although there is around a 40% chance that a front is able to push rain back into southwest Washington and far NW Oregon by Friday afternoon. Temperatures are likely to continue the gradual warming trend into the mid to upper 50s into the weekend and early next week.

Light rain showers late Friday into Saturday turns to heavier rain later in the weekend as the next weather system will likely be associated with a moderate and strong atmospheric river, potentially persisting through Monday. Both the GEFS and the European Ensemble suggests mean PWAT amounts of around 1.1-1.2 inch now. Uncertainty remains with where the band of heavier moisture sets up. The highest chances of IVT values > 500 kg/m/s (of around 70-90%) have shifted slightly southward, according to the CW3E IVT landfall tool, to much of the central and northern Oregon coast. Although latest HEFS forecasts show a 5-15% chance of local tributary rivers reaching minor flood stage, will need to monitor the flashier rivers as we get closer to Sunday. /DH

AVIATION
Widespread VFR continues with light precipitation across the airspace. A cold front crossing the region around 15Z-17Z Wednesday will bring MVFR conditions with gusts up to 30 kt across the airspace. Also, there will be a LLWS threat as southerly winds increase aloft while surface winds remain E/SE.
Rain tapers to showers behind the front around 21Z Wednesday to 02Z Thursday along with flight conditions gradually improving back towards VFR.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly VFR with light precipitation through around 17Z Wednesday. Afterwards, rain will continue, but expect MVFR conditions to develop along with LLWS as a cold front moves through the region. Around 00Z Thursday expect more showery precipitation and conditions improving back towards VFR. /42

MARINE
A frontal system moving onshore through the afternoon is resulting in southerly wind gusts up to 45 kt across all waters.
Therefore, have maintained the current suite of Gale Warnings across all waters. However, the cold front looks to be moving slightly faster than originally forecasted. So, have shortened the Gale warning for the inner waters and they are expected to subside towards Small Craft conditions by this afternoon. Seas 10 to 14 ft through the afternoon and will slowly subside towards 9 to 11 ft by tonight and remain there through at least Friday.

Another frontal system will enter the waters late Friday/Saturday and will likely (45-60% probability) of southerly Gale force gusts up to 45 kt. Seas are also expected to build towards 12 to 14 ft. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact timing and strength, but models are in good agreement with both Gales and sea heights at this time. /42

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 AM PST Thursday for ORZ126>128.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for WAZ211.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ210.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM PST Thursday for PZZ210-251>253.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for PZZ251>253.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ251>253.

Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ271>273.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST Thursday for PZZ271>273.