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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 322 Am Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Thursday night - .
In the main channel -
General seas - 3 to 4 ft building to 5 to 6 ft Thursday morning.
First ebb - Ebb current of 5.57 kt at 537 am Wednesday. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 3.55 kt at 558 pm Wednesday. Seas 5 ft.
Third ebb - Strong ebb current of 5.7 kt at 604 am Thursday. Seas 6 to 7 ft.

PZZ200 322 Am Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Weak low pressure over the waters will turn winds more westerly Wednesday. The next frontal system arrives Thursday, returning gusty southwesterly winds that will result in small craft advisory conditions.

FXUS66 KPQR 241031 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 330 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will weaken and shift eastward through Wednesday; meanwhile a weak Pacific frontal system will approach the Pac NW coast. Drizzle will be possible along the coast by Wed morning, but inland areas will likely see rain hold off until Wed night or Thu morning as the next, better organized frontal system approaches the coast. This frontal system will mark the beginning of a prolonged period of cool and unsettled weather, with snow possible down to the Cascade passes as soon as Thu night/Fri morning.

SHORT TERM
Wednesday through Friday night...Satellite observations from 2-3:30am Wednesday showed high clouds beginning to increase across southwest WA and northwest OR in response to a weak cool front approaching the coast. In addition to the high clouds, a low marine stratus deck was beginning to fill in at the coast. This stratus deck will deepen between 4-10am Wednesday morning as the aforementioned cool front approaches. Model soundings continue showing the marine layer rapidly deepening to over 1-1.5 km at that time, which will be deep enough to support some light drizzle and/or light rain. A broken marine stratus deck will briefly attempt filling in over the far south Willamette Valley/Lane County Cascade foothills Wednesday morning given the southwest-northeast oriented marine push in place. This low cloud layer will be shallow and broken enough to clear out for the afternoon according to the HRRR/model soundings, however high clouds will be on the increase once low clouds lift. As such, the high temperature forecast has continued to trend cooler. The deterministic NBM is no longer showing highs near 70 degrees over the inland valleys like it did 24 hours ago; the latest run is showing highs in the low to mid 60s (50s at the coast). The probability for highs of 70F or warmer have decreased from 5-25% to 1-5%.

Clouds lower/thicken in earnest Wednesday night as a fairly well organized (but weak) low pressure system approaches the Pac NW coast, along with its attendant warm front. Rain becomes likely throughout the forecast area late Wed night/early Thu morning, with PoPs increasing to 100% across the entire area by Thursday afternoon. With total precipitable water values in the 0.8-1.0" range, precipitation will probably be modest despite decent forcing. The NBM mean is suggesting the lowlands will receive 0.60-0.75" of rain by 5am Friday, with QPF in the mountains ranging from 0.75-1.5" south of Highway 20 and 1-2" to the north. QPF amounts are also near 2" along the west slopes of the north Coast Range. So, after about two weeks of relatively dry weather, this system will be a beneficial rain maker for the valleys. After this warm front moves through, the associated upper trough and low pressure will settle in near the Pac NW, pushing a weak cold front through and allowing for some cold advection later Thursday into Friday. NBM probabilistic guidance shows a 50/50 chance of snow levels lowering to the Cascade passes by 5 AM Friday, so any snow for the passes themselves will probably be wet with a very low snow-to-liquid ratio. The higher ski resort elevations above 5000 ft should see a few inches of snow, but advisory-level accumulations of 6 inches or more will likely be relegated to elevations above 6000 ft. For the lowlands, the upper trough will maintain slow moving rain showers, with about a 10-15% chance of enough instability to support a thunderstorm or two (best chance in south Willamette Valley/Lane County Cascade foothills according to the latest NBM thunder probabilities). Temperatures will be considerably cooler Thursday and Friday with widespread highs in the 50s across the lowlands. The probability for highs above 60F is at 1-5% on Thursday and 10-30% on Friday (except around 1% at the coast). -TK/Weagle


LONG TERM
Saturday through Tuesday night...The long term forecast is highlighted by a prolonged cool and wet weather pattern as a series of Pacific fronts send several rounds of showers over the area this weekend and well into next week.

The majority of 00z ECMWF/GFS ensemble members bring in another upper low/trough with a reinforcing shot of cool air, maintaining the possibility of late season snow for the Cascade passes and above into early next week. For the lowlands, expect cool and showery weather more reminiscent of early April rather than the end of April. The deterministic NBM suggests high temps will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s across inland valleys each day and mid 50s along and near the coast. Depending on the amount of clearing each night, the air mass may become cold enough to support patchy frost formation.
However, chances appear quite slim for frost most nights. The probability for low temps of 35F or colder (which would support frost formation) is generally <5%, except Tuesday morning when probabilities increase to 10-25% from Longview to Castle Rock, Salem to Eugene, and in Hillsboro and Battle Ground. Probabilities are highest over the Upper Hood River Valley at 25-40%. Overall confidence is low regarding the frost potential as the outcome will be highly dependent on exact cloud cover conditions. -TK/Weagle

AVIATION
Satellite imagery and terminal observations as of 09z Wed show MVFR marine stratus along the coast and high clouds moving in from an approaching weak front. Weak lift in the marine stratus may bring areas of drizzle along the coast through 13-14z Wed. Expect mostly MVFR cigs along the coast today as the marine layer holds on. Light rain increases along the north Oregon coast throughout the day, but is not expected to impact visibility. VFR thresholds prevail for Willamette Valley terminals, with cigs gradually falling to low-end VFR throughout the day as the weak front moves inland. Winds across all terminals will generally be west/southwest and under 10 kt.

After 00z Thu, guidance suggests a 40-60% chance of IFR cigs or lower along the coast as the next frontal system approaches.
Meanwhile, probabilities for MVFR cigs or lower for Willamette Valley terminals increase to 20-40% after 06z Thu.

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
The AWOS at KMMV is still out of commission. As it is not maintained locally by the National Weather Service, there is no estimated time of repair.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR thresholds throughout the TAF period with cigs gradually falling to low-end VFR thresholds throughout the day. 20-30% chance of MVFR cigs or lower between 06-12z Thu as the next frontal system approaches. Winds today will generally be westerly and under 10 kt. -Alviz

MARINE
Relatively quiet conditions prevail across the waters today (Wednesday) as the region remains in a lull before the next frontal system arrives. Models show a weak front pushing through the waters this morning, which will result in winds backing to a more westerly/southwesterly direction. Because this passing front is so weak, winds are generally not expected to exceed 10-15 kt today. Seas will also remain around 4-5 ft.

Wednesday night to Thursday, the next frontal system arrives over the waters, resulting in widespread southwesterly gusts to 25-30 kt. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all waters including the Columbia River Bar beginning early Thursday morning and lasting through at least early Friday morning. High resolution guidance also suggests a 30-50% chance of occasional gale force gusts of 34 kt or greater during the peak frontal passage between 12-4 PM PDT Thursday. Due to the sporadic nature and low confidence for gale force gusts, a Gale Warning would not be warranted. Expect seas to build slightly on Thursday to around 6-8 ft.

Looking ahead into the weekend and early next week, marine conditions will be characterized by a series of relatively weak frontal systems.
NBM guidance suggests a less than 5% chance of wind gusts exceeding 34 kt across the waters in the long term forecast. -Alviz

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ210-251>253-271>273.

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Warrenton
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Wed -- 01:47 AM PDT     8.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:18 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:34 AM PDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:56 PM PDT     7.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:18 PM PDT     2.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:34 PM PDT     Moonrise
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