Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warrenton, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:45PM Thursday February 20, 2020 3:00 PM PST (23:00 UTC) Moonrise 5:56AMMoonset 2:52PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 244 Pm Pst Thu Feb 20 2020
In the main channel.. - general seas...4 to 6 ft through Friday. - first ebb...around 245 pm Thursday. Seas to 7 ft. - second ebb...around 315 am Friday. Seas to 7 ft. - third ebb...strong ebb around 330 pm Friday. Seas to 8 ft.
PZZ200 244 Pm Pst Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure through Sat afternoon. A front along the leading edge of a 990 mb low in the eastern gulf of alaska will move over the waters late Sat night through Sun.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrenton, OR
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location: 46.17, -123.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 201118 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 311 AM PST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Varying degrees of high pressure over the region will bring cool nights, mild days and mainly dry weather during the next week. The main exception to this will be on Sunday into Sunday night when a storm system will likely bring valley rain and mountain snow to the region.

SHORT TERM. Today through Sunday . Water vapor satellite imagery this morning reveals a closed low pressure dropping southward off the California coast while shortwave ridging over the Inland Northwest shifts over the Rocky Mountain states. Southerly flow aloft and some accompanying high levels clouds are spreading over the region this morning as a result. Expect additional waves of mid and high level clouds to traverse the region today as broad lift slides across the Pacific Northwest in advance of a weak shortwave trough currently near 135W. Otherwise, expect conditions to remain mild and dry through Friday. It should be noted that there are some indications that marine stratus offshore will consolidate over the next 24 hours and push onshore so the coast may become more socked in low clouds.

Models continue to trend weaker with the first front pushing towards the region on Saturday. Have continued the trend of reducing PoPs, but still have some slight chance PoPs across our far northern zones to account for uncertainty. Models still suggest a stronger frontal storm system will impact the area on Sunday. As a result, have kept likely to categorical PoPs in the forecast during this time. Snow levels appear likely to fall below the Cascade passes on Sunday. However, the southern extent of the main shortwave trough and 500mb cold pool do result in some uncertainty in how much snow the Cascades will receive in the post frontal airmass Sunday into Sunday night. Anywhere from advisory level 6-12" to just a few inches seem on the table at this point. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Sunday night through Wednesday . Models and their ensembles are in good agreement the shortwave trough impacting the Pacific Northwest on Sunday will slide eastward and be replaced by shortwave ridging. This will result in decreasing showers and clouds across the area Sunday night into Monday. There is strong consensus the Pacific Northwest will then be under the influence of a shortwave ridge for much of next week. This will bring cool nights, high temperatures near average and mainly dry weather. Various operational and ensemble members do suggest a shortwave trough will try to slide into the ridge towards the middle of next week and potentially bring light precipitation to the area. However, there's very little consensus on how this might take shape and when exactly it will occur among model and ensemble guidance. As a result, the NBM slight chance PoPs towards the end of the long term forecast seem reasonable given the pattern and uncertainty. /Neuman

AVIATION. VFR conditions to prevail through Thursday as offshore flow persists. High cirrus clouds push into the area through Thursday morning. Gusty east winds continue through the Gorge and Coast Range gaps, but will start to weaken after 18Z Thursday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR conditions next 24 hours. Gusty east winds expected to decrease after 18Z. /42

MARINE. Offshore low-level flow pattern will continue over the waters through Thursday. A thermally-induced surface trough will continue to weaken through Thursday, but isolated gusts to 25 kt in the coastal terrain gaps remain possible through Thursday afternoon. Overall winds will begin to subside Thursday morning and continue to diminish through Friday before staying around 5 to 10 kt through Saturday.

The next weather system reaches our waters Saturday morning. Operational runs are suggesting that this system will likely bring solid small craft wind speeds to the waters by late Saturday. The 06Z GFS and 06Z ECMWF show boundary layer wind speeds of 25 to 30 kt late Saturday night through Sunday. High pressure returns early next week.

Seas will hover between 5 to 8 ft through Friday night. Seas then exceed 10 ft Saturday as a fresh swell moves into the waters from the system mentioned above. Guidance continues to lower the overall sea heights with each new run, the ENP and spectral guidance are keeping seas in around 10 to 12 feet through the weekend and into the start of next week. /42

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . None.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nm offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 8 mi48 min N 8 G 13 54°F 43°F1021.8 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 11 mi30 min 48°F4 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 30 mi70 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 49°F 48°F6 ft1022.8 hPa (+0.0)39°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 37 mi48 min Calm G 1.9 56°F 47°F1022.7 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 38 mi30 min 49°F6 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 42 mi48 min 49°F1022.5 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR2 mi65 minNE 910.00 miFair56°F34°F44%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10SE12E4SE8E6E3E4E7E6E6E5E7E8E7E8E6E8E8NE5NE7NE5NE8NE9NE9
1 day agoNE12E11NE11NE7NE10NE10E7NE12E5E8E7E8E9E7E9E9E73E6NE6E14
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2 days agoNW7NW7W8W4--S3SE3E4CalmSE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalm--E3CalmCalmE5E11NE11NE14NE14

Tide / Current Tables for Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon
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Warrenton
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:39 AM PST     3.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:56 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:11 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:39 AM PST     8.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:52 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:47 PM PST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:48 PM PST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.96.25.34.33.53.445.16.37.58.38.47.76.44.72.91.20.1-0.20.41.83.55.36.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chinook, Baker Bay, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.