Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warrenton, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:29PM Monday October 14, 2019 3:16 AM PDT (10:16 UTC) Moonrise 6:23PMMoonset 7:08AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 230 Am Pdt Mon Oct 14 2019
In the main channel.. - general seas...around 5 ft tonight then 4 ft this afternoon through Tue morning. - first ebb...around 545 am this morning. Seas to 7 ft. - second ebb...around 6 pm Monday. Seas to 6 ft. - third ebb...around 615 am Tue. Seas to 5 ft.
PZZ200 230 Am Pdt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will remain over the through Mon evening. The first in a series of frontal systems will move through the waters Tue afternoon. Stronger fronts will follow the latter half of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrenton, OR
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location: 46.17, -123.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 140403 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
903 pm pdt Sun oct 13 2019
aviation discussion updated.

Synopsis Mostly dry weather is expected through Monday. High
pressure will build into the region tonight with areas of fog and
low clouds forming overnight, especially in the valleys. Areas of
fog will linger into mid-morning on Monday, but will clear for a
sunny and seasonable october afternoon. Clouds will increase on
Tuesday as the first in a series of frontal systems approaches the
pacific northwest coast. This will mark a shift toward a much more
active and wet weather pattern for the middle to latter part of the
week.

Short term Tonight through Wednesday... The upper level trough that
moved through the region last night into this morning will move east
of the area tonight. High pressure aloft and at the surface will
build across the region tonight and Monday. Time-height cross
sections show a fairly moist boundary layer throughout the
willamette valley that persists through about 18z Monday. With the
low level moisture and light winds, expect to see a mix of fog and
low stratus in the valleys late tonight into early Monday morning.

The low clouds and fog should clear by midday, giving way to a
mostly sunny afternoon on Monday. High temperatures on Monday will
be 3 or 4 degrees warmer on Monday with temperatures at the coast
near 60 and in the lower to mid 60s inland.

The ridge of high pressure will transit the area Monday with the
ridge axis over the northern rockies on Tuesday. The first in a
series of storms will approach the region late Tuesday. Nwp models
have slowed the progression of this front with the front moving into
the coastal region Tuesday night into early Wednesday. another
slightly stronger front will follow on it's heels later Wednesday.

Tw

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday... Models and their
ensembles are in good agreement a series of shortwave troughs will
slide east-southeastward across the pacific northwest during the
second half of the work week. This will result in a multi-day
stretch of wet weather. While no one day looks unusually wet,
rainfall amounts will likely add up over time. Based on the GEFS and
ec, it appears an additional 0.50-2.00" of rain on top of Tuesday
night Wednesday's rain will be possible in the willamette valley
Wednesday night through Saturday with an additional 1-3" along the
coast and an additional 2-5" rain in the coast range and cascades.

Given these rainfall amounts will be spread out over several days,
mainstem river flooding appears unlikely at this point... Even at our
most flood prone rivers including the grays river at rosberg.

Nonetheless, rivers will certainly be on the rise and the weather
will be reminiscent of many past november days.

It should be noted that subtle differences exist between models and
various ensemble members in timing and amplitude of upper level
shortwave troughs so there is still some uncertainty on when showers
will be more or less numerous across the region. Nonetheless, there
is at least some indication Thursday afternoon or evening could see
a spike in rain coverage as an occluding front drops southeastward
into the region. In addition, it appears the region will be on the
edge of the 500mb cold pool Wednesday night and again on Thursday
night or Friday so there will be a risk for a thunderstorm or two
over the northern waters, and perhaps even inland, but there remains
enough uncertainty to leave it at that for now.

Pressure gradients will also be favorable for breezy to windy
conditions along the coast late Wednesday and Thursday, but at this
point models suggest wind fields should be weak enough to
prevent any high wind issues along the coast.

Finally, wet weather may very well continue into Sunday, but models
and their ensembles suggest it's less likely than Saturday so pops
were maintained in the chance to low end likely range per nbm
guidance for now. It should be noted that the some of the recent
operational ec and GFS runs do suggest an atmospheric river riding
up and over the shortwave ridge building across the eastern pacific
could take aim at the pacific northwest late Sunday and beyond so
that will be worth monitoring, particularly given the rain
anticipated to fall this week. Neuman

Aviation Cigs breaking up and clearing through about 10z Monday,
then expect MVFR stratus formation inland. Developing light offshore
wind should keep the central coast around onp clear andVFR next 24
hours. May see ifr "bog fog" develop at kast with wind direction off
the water at low tide around 14z Monday. Expect conditions across
the board to lift toVFR and clear between 18z and 20z Monday.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions expected through 12z Monday
with clearing skies. After about 12z, MVFR conditions appear likely
to develop with a low stratus layer.VFR conditions then expected to
return after 18z to 20z Monday and continue through 06z Tuesday.

Bowen

Marine North to northwest post-frontal winds gusting to 25 kt
continue well away from shore, generally more than 15 nm from the
coast. In addition, northwest swell around 10 ft has moved closer to
shore than anticipated and isn't subsiding quite as quickly as
forecast. For these reasons, have extended the small craft advisory
in time to 11 pm pdt Sunday as well as in space to include the
nearshore waters in addition to the offshore waters. Still expect
winds and seas to decrease later tonight below 25 kt and 10 ft,
respectively. The remainder of the previous discussion follows. Bowen
the weather pattern becomes much more active beginning Tuesday, and
continuing into next weekend. Beginning Tuesday night and continuing
into Saturday expect winds gusting to 20 to 30 kt as a series of
front move east across the waters. At this point, the Wednesday
system appears to be the strongest, and some gale force gusts with
this system may not be out of the question. Seas are likely to build
above 10 ft by Tuesday evening, and expected to build as high as 15
to 20 ft from late Wednesday into Friday, which will be the biggest
seas since spring.

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt this evening for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 8 mi47 min Calm G 1 50°F 58°F1018.1 hPa
46096 11 mi97 min 54°F
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 11 mi47 min 54°F5 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 30 mi87 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 58°F9 ft1018.1 hPa (+0.0)45°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 37 mi47 min E 6 G 7 46°F 55°F1018.6 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 39 mi47 min 59°F7 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 42 mi47 min 53°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR2 mi22 minESE 410.00 miOvercast45°F43°F93%1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE4CalmE3SE3SE3CalmNW5NW7NW10NW10NW11NW10NW7NW6W5SW3CalmCalmCalmSE4SE3E3E4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4CalmCalmCalmNW3N5NW5W7CalmW33E5W4CalmSE5CalmE3Calm
2 days agoE5--E8E9CalmE8E11E13E12E10E9E8E8NE6E54SE4CalmE4SE3CalmSE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon
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Warrenton
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Mon -- 02:13 AM PDT     7.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:31 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:07 AM PDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:08 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:12 PM PDT     8.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:22 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:41 PM PDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.36.77.47.15.94.42.81.71.11.52.74.46.27.58.27.86.64.72.81.30.30.10.92.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chinook, Baker Bay, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.