Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warrenton, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 4:27PM Friday December 13, 2019 4:32 AM PST (12:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:07PMMoonset 9:17AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 240 Am Pst Fri Dec 13 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
In the main channel.. - general seas...16 to 18 ft this morning gradually decreasing to 10 to 12 ft by midday Saturday. - first ebb...around 515 am Friday. Seas near 21 ft with breakers. - second ebb...very strong. Around 515 pm Friday. Seas near 17 ft with breakers. - third ebb...around 6 am Saturday. Seas near 14 ft with breakers possible.
PZZ200 240 Am Pst Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak surface low pressure will move southeastward towards california Saturday before weak high pressure shifts across the waters on Sunday. Offshore flow will likely develop early next week before a front brings increasing winds and seas again late next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrenton, OR
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location: 46.17, -123.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 131119 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 318 AM PST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. An active weather pattern will continue today as a strong jet stream remains directed at Oregon. Northwest flow aloft this weekend will maintain low chances for showers. High pressure returns early next week and then weakens by mid-week.

SHORT TERM. Friday through Sunday . Satellite loop shows a broad arching jet over Oregon that extends toward the Hawaiian Islands. The forecast area split by two weather environments. North of the jet a cool and unstable air mass supporting showers. To the south lay a west to east front southern Oregon. A low will move west to east along the front today bringing more stratiform precipitation. Snow for the Lane county Cascades will pick up again as the low slides inland this morning. Model QPF indicating probably enough for another 6 to 10 inches above 5000 ft with a few inches down to about 4000 ft. The north Oregon and south Washington Cascades will be in snow showers and accumulation are expected to be less. The snow level will continue to drop, reaching around 2500 ft by Sat morning. By then precipitation chances have diminished.

Thunderstorm chances continue today for the north Oregon/south Washington coastal waters and inland as far as the coast range and Willapa Hills. Forecast soundings for Astoria show thin CAPE through the afternoon up to the -20C level. SREF 12 hr calibrated thunderstorm probability indicates best chance for thunderstorm will be this morning. So far no lightning strikes detected over the last 6 hours or so. Other guidance like the HREF 4 hour calibrated thunderstorm probability is lower and more over WA than Oregon.

Cyclonic northwest flow aloft Saturday will maintain unsettled conditions over the area, but model QPF is is low. Coastal areas and mountains stand the best chance for showers. On Sunday and upper ridge builds offshore but enough cyclonic northwest flow aloft remains over the area for some mention of precip. /mh

LONG TERM. Sunday night through Thursday . Operational models and respective ensembles are in good agreement showing the upper ridge gradually drifting east early next week. The 500 mb cluster analysis based off the 00Z model runs valid 00Z Tue show good agreement with the ridge axis just off the coastline. Will likely need to consider air quality issues early next week, but this does not look like an extended ridging pattern. The ECMWF ensembles suggest the upper level ridge will shift east Wed as an upper level low approaches the north California coast. This results in a return to a split-flow pattern. However, it appears a more consolidated upper level flow returns late next week. Weishaar

AVIATION. A weak low pressure making landfall near the California/Oregon border around midday today will bring light rain and some IFR and MVFR flight restrictions to our southern taf sites today. Elsewhere, partial clearing and decreasing winds this morning will result in a mix of VFR, MVFR and IFR conditions as fog and low clouds try to develop between 12-18z Friday. Temperatures aloft will continue to remain cold so instability should limit how long fog and low clouds stick around after 18-20z Friday. Nonetheless, expect conditions to deteriorate once again beginning between 00-06z Friday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . An unstable showery weather pattern will lead to primarily VFR conditions with occasional MVFR conditions through 00z Saturday. There is a chance IFR conditions will temporarily develop between 12-18z Saturday. Winds may be weak enough and there may be enough clearing that fog and low clouds try to develop and produce more a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions beginning between 00-06z Saturday and continuing through 18z Saturday. /Neuman

MARINE. A weak surface low pressure will make landfall along the Oregon/California border today. This will decrease pressure gradients across the area and result in decreasing winds. Another weak low pressure will then drop southeastward towards the Oregon/California border on Saturday. This track should keep winds below advisory thresholds.

A weak front will then push towards the region late Sunday into early Monday, but impacts look to be limited. High pressure will then build over the Inland Northwest and likely result in offshore flow developing during the first half of next week. A stronger front looks to push towards the waters on Thursday. A developing surface low pressure in its wake could bring a period of stronger winds and higher seas late next week.

A large westerly swell of 16 to 18 ft with a dominant period of 15 to 16 seconds will slowly ease this afternoon and evening. Expect seas to drop down below 10 ft Saturday afternoon or evening. Seas should then hover a few feet on either side of 10 ft for much of next week. However, higher seas could happen if the stronger scenarios with the developing low pressure pan out. /Neuman

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Winter Storm Warning until noon PST today for Cascades in Lane County.

WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.Columbia River Bar-coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 8 mi45 min SSE 5.1 G 8.9 45°F 46°F1020.2 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 11 mi33 min 49°F18 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 30 mi43 min SSW 9.7 G 14 49°F 49°F17 ft1020 hPa (+0.0)45°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 37 mi57 min SSE 8 G 8.9 46°F 48°F1019.8 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 38 mi33 min 50°F19 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 42 mi57 min 50°F1021.1 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR2 mi38 minS 56.00 miFog/Mist45°F43°F93%1020.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE6E6E5E7E5E6E6E4SE3E3CalmE3E4E4E3E4CalmCalmE3E5E4E4E4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon
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Warrenton
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Fri -- 02:15 AM PST     7.58 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:23 AM PST     3.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:16 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:10 PM PST     9.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:29 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:06 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:19 PM PST     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.56.97.67.36.45.14.13.53.64.467.68.99.59.27.95.83.51.50-0.7-0.50.62.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chinook, Baker Bay, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.