Tuesday, March31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warrenton, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:41PM Tuesday March 31, 2020 11:37 AM PDT (18:37 UTC) Moonrise 10:05AMMoonset 1:18AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 242 Am Pdt Tue Mar 31 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am this morning to 1 pm pdt this afternoon...
In the main channel.. - general seas...around 9 ft through Tuesday night. - first ebb...around 10 am Tuesday. Seas to 12 ft with breakers likely. - second ebb...around 1030 pm Tuesday. Seas to 9 ft. - third ebb...around 11 am Wednesday. Seas to 8 ft.
PZZ200 242 Am Pdt Tue Mar 31 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A low near vancouver island will drift south off the wa coast today then inland over the north oregon coast Wed. High pressure strengthens offshore by Thu. A developing low could approach the waters from the west on Fri, but likely head south of the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrenton, OR
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location: 46.17, -123.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 311630 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 928 AM PDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Updated Short Term/Aviation/Marine Sections

SYNOPSIS. A complex upper low will produce rain and snow showers through at least Wednesday. The showers will be convective with isolated thunderstorms possible at times, and likely contain small hail. By Thursday showers are expected to decrease with a bit milder temperatures, but a chance for rain returns at the end of the week as additional upper troughs approach the Pacific NW.

SHORT TERM. Today through Thursday (UPDATED) . Morning water vapor imagery revealed a large, complex upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia. The trough contains multiple 500 mb low pres centers. The most notable low center for the Pacific Northwest was located over the north tip of Vancouver Island. Cascade ODOT web cams show packed snow over the major highway passes this morning. Small-scale impulses coming from the Vancouver Island upper low will continue to rotate through southwest Washington and northwest Oregon for the next couple of days. There will be some degree of orographic enhancement into the Cascades today due to west low and mid-level flow. Although not very robust, on the order of 15-20 kt at 850 mb, this should maintain frequent snow shower activity today. The NBM suggests another 2 to 5 inches for the Cascades by 00Z Wed. Will likely extend the snow advisory through the afternoon, even though the expected additional amounts are not up to advisory criteria. The major Cascade passes will continue to be snowpacked.

Snow levels this morning are around 2000 to 2500 feet, based on the Astoria profiler and other webcams. The NAM indicates 500 mb temps of -30 to -34C across the northern third of the CWA this afternoon. Un-modified model sounding for KAST shows some skinny CAPE beginning around midday, with low-level lapse rates 7-8C. These moderate lapse rates combined with some surface heating will result in a small possibility of thunderstorms, mainly for the north half of the forecast area. A more common occurrence will likely be small hail or graupel in heavier showers. Shower activity will wane after sunset with the loss of solar heating. However, snow levels tonight and Wed will remain on the low side, down to 1500 feet tonight through Wed morning. The upper low slides south tonight and Wed, which will provide extra dynamics for another active shower day Wed. Weishaar

Models generally agree that the main upper trough axis moves south of the region Wednesday night, leaving the area under a continued cool northerly flow aloft. Low levels will tend to remain unstable especially with daytime heating Thursday, but the deep instability will be gone as mid and upper levels warm in response to rising heights aloft. This should end any threat of thunderstorms Wednesday night, but chances for showers will continue through Thursday with the shallower instability.

LONG TERM. Thursday night through Monday . Models in reasonably good agreement through Saturday, then as they have been doing recently, diverging more significantly after day 5. Thursday night and Friday models generally keep the region under a northwest cyclonic flow aloft, although with heights aloft rising. The limits low level instability to a shallower layer, but coupled with a weak shortwave rotating through keeps a threat of showers across most of the region. A secondary low coming from the north Pacific trails Friday night and Saturday, but appears likely to move inland to the south of the forecast area. This brings some threat for rain to the region, with the best chances across the south part of the forecast area. Yet another upper low dropping south from the Gulf of Alaska comes on the scene late in the week, but the track of the low varies considerably amongst the models, which necessitates keeping middle of the road pops for Sunday through Monday. With a longwave trough lingering through the end of the week and into early next week, expect daytime temperatures to remain below normal with snow levels remaining below Cascade passes.

AVIATION. Post frontal showers will continue through the evening along with an increasing chance for thunderstorms with small hail across most of the area after 18Z Tuesday thru 03Z Wednesday. Predominately VFR conditions with occasional MVFR cigs in the 2000 to 3000 ft range thru this evening. Showers ease this evening with VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the overnight hours. However, may see spotty MVFR cigs return after 08Z Wednesday.

PDX AND APPROACHES . Shower continue throughout today and decrease this evening. VFR conditions with occasional MVFR cigs around 2500 to 3000 ft into the evening. Thunderstorms with small hail are possible 18Z Tuesday thru 03Z Wednesday. Showers ease into the evening with VFR conditions expected to prevail during the overnight hours. Possibility for spotty MVFR cigs after 08Z Wednesday. Wind generally out of the southwest 10 kt, but gusts to 20+ kt possible if thunderstorms near terminals.

MARINE. Winds gusting to 20-25 kt range this morning will increase a little this afternoon and evening as another trough moves to the waters. Winds ease from north to south on Wednesday as a weak low moves over the waters. Wind also turn to the northwest later Wednesday as high pressure strengthens offshore. Weak troughs will continue to drop south over the waters through late in the week to weaken the high pressure. Models are showing a developing low undercutting this weak ridge and approach from the west on Friday. This has the potential to impact our waters, but numerical output is suggesting that the low will continue a southeastward track towards the Oregon/California border. /mh

Seas start out around 10-12 ft today and gradually drop below 10 ft Wednesday the lay down to around 5 ft Thursday through late in the week.

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.

WA . Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for South Washington Cascades.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for Columbia River Bar.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nm offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 8 mi49 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 1017.7 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 11 mi37 min 48°F9 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 30 mi47 min WNW 9.7 G 16 43°F 48°F10 ft1018.4 hPa (+2.1)36°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 37 mi55 min WSW 5.1 G 7 42°F 47°F1017.6 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 38 mi37 min 49°F11 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 42 mi49 min 47°F1019.3 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR2 mi42 minWSW 910.00 miOvercast45°F37°F77%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon
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Warrenton
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Tue -- 02:17 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:42 AM PDT     7.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:56 PM PDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:44 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:01 PM PDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.74.65.877.87.97.46.24.731.81.10.81.11.92.944.95.55.85.64.94.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chinook, Baker Bay, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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