Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Warrenton, OR
November 30, 2023 3:19 PM PST (23:19 UTC)
Sunrise 7:30AM Sunset 4:30PM Moonrise 7:18PM Moonset 11:13AM
PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 202 Pm Pst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Friday morning...
.hazardous seas warning in effect from Friday morning through late Friday night...
In the main channel..
General seas..6 to 7 ft building to 10 to 12 ft Friday evening.
First ebb..Strong ebb current of 5.67 kt at 621 pm Thursday. Seas 7 to 8 ft.
SEcond ebb..Ebb current of 2.56 kt at 706 am Friday. Seas 11 to 12 ft.
Third ebb..Ebb current of 5.09 kt at 701 pm Friday. Seas 10 to 12 ft.
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Friday morning...
.hazardous seas warning in effect from Friday morning through late Friday night...
In the main channel..
General seas..6 to 7 ft building to 10 to 12 ft Friday evening.
First ebb..Strong ebb current of 5.67 kt at 621 pm Thursday. Seas 7 to 8 ft.
SEcond ebb..Ebb current of 2.56 kt at 706 am Friday. Seas 11 to 12 ft.
Third ebb..Ebb current of 5.09 kt at 701 pm Friday. Seas 10 to 12 ft.
PZZ200 202 Pm Pst Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A cold front will continue moving through the waters tonight, with southerly winds gradually strengthening. Friday and into the weekend, a series of systems will maintain southerly to westerly winds with building winds and seas. Overall, a very active weather pattern is expected for the latter part of the week and into the start of the upcoming week.
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A cold front will continue moving through the waters tonight, with southerly winds gradually strengthening. Friday and into the weekend, a series of systems will maintain southerly to westerly winds with building winds and seas. Overall, a very active weather pattern is expected for the latter part of the week and into the start of the upcoming week.
Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KPQR 301730 AAA AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 929 AM PST Thu Nov 30 2023
Updated Aviation Discussion
SYNOPSIS
A big pattern change is on the way as a pair of atmospheric rivers bring heavy rain and Cascade snow to the area Thursday through the weekend. There is the potential for a third atmospheric river early next week, however uncertainty is very high with this system.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...Mid to upper level clouds continue to fill in ahead of an approaching Pacific frontal system.
Near the surface, winds are still calm which continues to limit mixing producing degraded air quality in the central and southern Willamette Valley. The Air Quality Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM Thursday and will likely not need an extension as transport winds/low-level mixing will begin to rapidly increase, improving air quality shortly thereafter as the low level front moves inland.
The latest suite of hi-res model guidance is in good agreement regarding the onset of rain with this system, suggesting light to moderate rain will begin at the coast and over the coastal mountains Thursday morning before pushing into the interior lowlands of southwest WA/northwest OR during the late morning and early afternoon. Rain should reach the Cascade foothills around Noon. For the mid and upper slopes of the Cascades (elevations above 3000 ft), precipitation will fall in the form of snow as snow levels look to hover around 3000 ft before falling to around 2500 ft Thursday night.
As such, accumulating snow will occur at pass level and will impact travel conditions along portions of US26, ORE22, US20, and ORE126.
Anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected for elevations above 3000 ft from Thursday through Thursday night. Travel conditions over the passes will degrade even more thereafter as a relatively stronger system brings heavy Cascade snow Friday into the weekend.
This system is discussed below in the long term discussion and the hydrology discussion. -BKM/TK
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...The long term discussion is highlighted by a very wet/active weather pattern as a series of at least two atmospheric rivers impacts the region. The first atmospheric river, albeit a weak one with IVT values around 250-300 kg/ms, is set to arrive early Friday morning and continue through Friday night. The current forecast produces a 24 hour QPF starting at 4 AM Friday around 0.5" in the southern Willamette Valley and close to an inch along the I5 corridor in Cowlitz County. Areas in the Coast Range, particularly those north of Newport, will see 1-2" and the Cascades will receive 3-4" with up to 5" of QPF across the south Washington Cascades. Snow levels will be around 3000 ft which will result in high snow accumulations across the Cascades. Snow accumulations between 3000-4500 ft will see 8-12" and elevations above 4500 ft will see 20-30" with 40-50" possible in the south Washington Cascades. This will make travel extremely difficult for those attempting to travel over the Cascade passes. Winds will also gust up to 55 mph at times over the high Cascades. This will reduce visibilities even more as blowing snow combines with falling snow.
There is still quite a bit of variability within the ensembles and unless the wettest solutions verify hydro impacts will be minimal Friday/Friday night as river levels leading into this event will be relatively low.
Wet conditions continue Saturday into Sunday as a moderate atmospheric river pushes into the area immediately behind Friday/Friday night's system, bringing more heavy snow to the Cascades and heavy rain elsewhere. Snow levels will be on the rise through out the day Saturday but the will remain low enough to produce another 4-6" across the midslopes and 8-15" for the highest elevations from early Saturday morning through the afternoon.
Therefore, the Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday through 4 PM Saturday above 3000 ft.
Aside from dangerous travel conditions over the Cascade passes during this time, flooding concerns will begin to increase along rivers, creeks, small streams, and in urban areas with poor drainage as river levels will already be elevated leading into the second round of heavy precipitation. Forecast rain amounts and the potential for flooding are discussed below in Hydrology discussion.
Lastly, there is the potential for a third atmospheric river early next week. However uncertainty with this system is very high as models struggle to find where the atmospheric river will make landfall. Given river levels will be elevated leading into this potential event, will need to watch future model guidance closely for increasing confidence. -BKM/TK
HYDROLOGY
With heavy rain in the forecast this weekend into early next week, river levels will be on the rise. River flooding potential is still uncertain due to a considerable degree of model spread regarding QPF amounts for both the weekend system and the potential system early next week. This variability is mainly due to uncertainty regarding the location of the axis of heaviest rain, but also due to some uncertainty regarding the intensity of precipitation. With such an extreme degree of model spread, it is very difficult to determine if river flooding will occur in a deterministic sense. Regardless, the Weather Prediction Center has put all of SW Washington, NW Oregon in a Marginal Risk from Sunday morning through Monday morning. A marginal risk means there's at least a 5% chance of exceeding local flash flood guidance. The Marginal Risk continues Monday morning through Tuesday morning for areas in the higher terrain north of a line between Lincoln City and Mt Hood as another atmospheric river moves inland.
Given the high uncertainty involved, it is best to message the chance of river flooding probabilistically using HEFS guidance. While the latest HEFS guidance is showing around a 5% chance mainstem rivers will reach flood stage through early next week, there is at least a 10-20% chance coastal rivers/rivers draining the Coast Range will reach minor or even moderate flood stage. To view current and forecast river stages, as well as HEFS guidance, visit https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=pqr
Lastly, minor urban flooding is also possible this weekend, especially in areas with poor drainage. If you have gutters and/or storm drains that still need to be cleared out, now is the time. Any motorists with travel plans this weekend should also allow extra time for their commute as hydroplaning will be a risk. -TK
AVIATION
18Z TAFs...Current satellite imagery and observations as of 17Z Thursday show a mixture of VFR to LIFR conditions across the forecast area as a front starts to move across the region. As the front moves eastward through the TAF period. Expect increasing precipitation, which could be heavy at times and therefore impact visibility. Also, there will be a mixture of flight conditions, but expect predominately MVFR/VFR conditions (60-80% probability)
expected through the majority of the TAF forecast. Winds will become more southerly as the front approaches, then become westerly behind this first front. Expect breezy winds along with coast with gusts up to 25 kt. A second, stronger front is expected to start cross the region around 10Z-12Z Friday. Precipitation rates are expected to increase as well as stronger winds with gusts up to 30 kt along the coast starting around 10Z Friday.
Gusty winds up to 25 kt possible for inland locations around 12Z-17Z Friday as well with the second front.
** The new Aviation Weather Center website is live. The new website can be found at aviationweather.gov **
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mixed flight conditions with predominately MVFR/VFR conditions (60-80% probability) through the TAF period expected as a series of fronts moves across the forecast area.
Increasing precipitation, which could be heavy at times could impact visibility. A second, stronger front is expected to start cross around 12Z-14Z Friday with gusty winds up to 25 kt possible from 12Z-16Z Friday.
MARINE
A cold front will move through the waters Thursday, strengthening southerly winds to Small Craft criteria through at least Thursday afternoon. Seas at the same time will gradually build towards 7-9 ft by Thursday evening. Friday and into the weekend, a series of systems will move through the waters, resulting in a very active weather pattern through the start of the upcoming week. For the system arriving Friday, winds could gust up to 35-45 kt across the waters; therefore, a Gale Warning has been issued from Friday morning to Friday afternoon. Later this weekend, there still remains a 50-60% chance of wind gusts exceeding 40 kt over the waters. In addition, seas will also build towards 14-17 ft starting Friday through early next week as the active weather pattern persists. -Alviz/42
BEACH HAZARDS
- High Sneaker Wave threat Saturday-Tuesday
A high sneaker wave threat will be present along the OR and WA coasts starting this Saturday and continuing through at least next Tuesday. The cause is a series of systems coming from the central Pacific Ocean and moving towards the Pacific NW. Expect wave heights to slowly build towards 14-17 ft with a dominant period of 13-15 seconds.
It is important to not focus on the highest wave heights as a representation of peak sneaker wave threat; the period between the waves is almost more important as it represents the energy being carried by the swell. Sneaker waves will drive up further on the beach, when compared to waves of similar height. This can potentially catch beachgoers off guard. In addition, waves can easily lift and move large logs on the beach and knock people/pets off of jetties. Therefore, have issued a Beach Hazard Statement along our CWA's entire coast starting early Saturday morning and through at least early Tuesday morning. -Alviz/42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM PST Saturday for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.
Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Cascade Foothills in Lane County.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for South Washington Cascades.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM PST Saturday for South Washington Cascades.
PZ...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Friday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 929 AM PST Thu Nov 30 2023
Updated Aviation Discussion
SYNOPSIS
A big pattern change is on the way as a pair of atmospheric rivers bring heavy rain and Cascade snow to the area Thursday through the weekend. There is the potential for a third atmospheric river early next week, however uncertainty is very high with this system.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...Mid to upper level clouds continue to fill in ahead of an approaching Pacific frontal system.
Near the surface, winds are still calm which continues to limit mixing producing degraded air quality in the central and southern Willamette Valley. The Air Quality Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM Thursday and will likely not need an extension as transport winds/low-level mixing will begin to rapidly increase, improving air quality shortly thereafter as the low level front moves inland.
The latest suite of hi-res model guidance is in good agreement regarding the onset of rain with this system, suggesting light to moderate rain will begin at the coast and over the coastal mountains Thursday morning before pushing into the interior lowlands of southwest WA/northwest OR during the late morning and early afternoon. Rain should reach the Cascade foothills around Noon. For the mid and upper slopes of the Cascades (elevations above 3000 ft), precipitation will fall in the form of snow as snow levels look to hover around 3000 ft before falling to around 2500 ft Thursday night.
As such, accumulating snow will occur at pass level and will impact travel conditions along portions of US26, ORE22, US20, and ORE126.
Anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected for elevations above 3000 ft from Thursday through Thursday night. Travel conditions over the passes will degrade even more thereafter as a relatively stronger system brings heavy Cascade snow Friday into the weekend.
This system is discussed below in the long term discussion and the hydrology discussion. -BKM/TK
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...The long term discussion is highlighted by a very wet/active weather pattern as a series of at least two atmospheric rivers impacts the region. The first atmospheric river, albeit a weak one with IVT values around 250-300 kg/ms, is set to arrive early Friday morning and continue through Friday night. The current forecast produces a 24 hour QPF starting at 4 AM Friday around 0.5" in the southern Willamette Valley and close to an inch along the I5 corridor in Cowlitz County. Areas in the Coast Range, particularly those north of Newport, will see 1-2" and the Cascades will receive 3-4" with up to 5" of QPF across the south Washington Cascades. Snow levels will be around 3000 ft which will result in high snow accumulations across the Cascades. Snow accumulations between 3000-4500 ft will see 8-12" and elevations above 4500 ft will see 20-30" with 40-50" possible in the south Washington Cascades. This will make travel extremely difficult for those attempting to travel over the Cascade passes. Winds will also gust up to 55 mph at times over the high Cascades. This will reduce visibilities even more as blowing snow combines with falling snow.
There is still quite a bit of variability within the ensembles and unless the wettest solutions verify hydro impacts will be minimal Friday/Friday night as river levels leading into this event will be relatively low.
Wet conditions continue Saturday into Sunday as a moderate atmospheric river pushes into the area immediately behind Friday/Friday night's system, bringing more heavy snow to the Cascades and heavy rain elsewhere. Snow levels will be on the rise through out the day Saturday but the will remain low enough to produce another 4-6" across the midslopes and 8-15" for the highest elevations from early Saturday morning through the afternoon.
Therefore, the Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday through 4 PM Saturday above 3000 ft.
Aside from dangerous travel conditions over the Cascade passes during this time, flooding concerns will begin to increase along rivers, creeks, small streams, and in urban areas with poor drainage as river levels will already be elevated leading into the second round of heavy precipitation. Forecast rain amounts and the potential for flooding are discussed below in Hydrology discussion.
Lastly, there is the potential for a third atmospheric river early next week. However uncertainty with this system is very high as models struggle to find where the atmospheric river will make landfall. Given river levels will be elevated leading into this potential event, will need to watch future model guidance closely for increasing confidence. -BKM/TK
HYDROLOGY
With heavy rain in the forecast this weekend into early next week, river levels will be on the rise. River flooding potential is still uncertain due to a considerable degree of model spread regarding QPF amounts for both the weekend system and the potential system early next week. This variability is mainly due to uncertainty regarding the location of the axis of heaviest rain, but also due to some uncertainty regarding the intensity of precipitation. With such an extreme degree of model spread, it is very difficult to determine if river flooding will occur in a deterministic sense. Regardless, the Weather Prediction Center has put all of SW Washington, NW Oregon in a Marginal Risk from Sunday morning through Monday morning. A marginal risk means there's at least a 5% chance of exceeding local flash flood guidance. The Marginal Risk continues Monday morning through Tuesday morning for areas in the higher terrain north of a line between Lincoln City and Mt Hood as another atmospheric river moves inland.
Given the high uncertainty involved, it is best to message the chance of river flooding probabilistically using HEFS guidance. While the latest HEFS guidance is showing around a 5% chance mainstem rivers will reach flood stage through early next week, there is at least a 10-20% chance coastal rivers/rivers draining the Coast Range will reach minor or even moderate flood stage. To view current and forecast river stages, as well as HEFS guidance, visit https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=pqr
Lastly, minor urban flooding is also possible this weekend, especially in areas with poor drainage. If you have gutters and/or storm drains that still need to be cleared out, now is the time. Any motorists with travel plans this weekend should also allow extra time for their commute as hydroplaning will be a risk. -TK
AVIATION
18Z TAFs...Current satellite imagery and observations as of 17Z Thursday show a mixture of VFR to LIFR conditions across the forecast area as a front starts to move across the region. As the front moves eastward through the TAF period. Expect increasing precipitation, which could be heavy at times and therefore impact visibility. Also, there will be a mixture of flight conditions, but expect predominately MVFR/VFR conditions (60-80% probability)
expected through the majority of the TAF forecast. Winds will become more southerly as the front approaches, then become westerly behind this first front. Expect breezy winds along with coast with gusts up to 25 kt. A second, stronger front is expected to start cross the region around 10Z-12Z Friday. Precipitation rates are expected to increase as well as stronger winds with gusts up to 30 kt along the coast starting around 10Z Friday.
Gusty winds up to 25 kt possible for inland locations around 12Z-17Z Friday as well with the second front.
** The new Aviation Weather Center website is live. The new website can be found at aviationweather.gov **
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mixed flight conditions with predominately MVFR/VFR conditions (60-80% probability) through the TAF period expected as a series of fronts moves across the forecast area.
Increasing precipitation, which could be heavy at times could impact visibility. A second, stronger front is expected to start cross around 12Z-14Z Friday with gusty winds up to 25 kt possible from 12Z-16Z Friday.
MARINE
A cold front will move through the waters Thursday, strengthening southerly winds to Small Craft criteria through at least Thursday afternoon. Seas at the same time will gradually build towards 7-9 ft by Thursday evening. Friday and into the weekend, a series of systems will move through the waters, resulting in a very active weather pattern through the start of the upcoming week. For the system arriving Friday, winds could gust up to 35-45 kt across the waters; therefore, a Gale Warning has been issued from Friday morning to Friday afternoon. Later this weekend, there still remains a 50-60% chance of wind gusts exceeding 40 kt over the waters. In addition, seas will also build towards 14-17 ft starting Friday through early next week as the active weather pattern persists. -Alviz/42
BEACH HAZARDS
- High Sneaker Wave threat Saturday-Tuesday
A high sneaker wave threat will be present along the OR and WA coasts starting this Saturday and continuing through at least next Tuesday. The cause is a series of systems coming from the central Pacific Ocean and moving towards the Pacific NW. Expect wave heights to slowly build towards 14-17 ft with a dominant period of 13-15 seconds.
It is important to not focus on the highest wave heights as a representation of peak sneaker wave threat; the period between the waves is almost more important as it represents the energy being carried by the swell. Sneaker waves will drive up further on the beach, when compared to waves of similar height. This can potentially catch beachgoers off guard. In addition, waves can easily lift and move large logs on the beach and knock people/pets off of jetties. Therefore, have issued a Beach Hazard Statement along our CWA's entire coast starting early Saturday morning and through at least early Tuesday morning. -Alviz/42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM PST Saturday for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.
Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Cascade Foothills in Lane County.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for South Washington Cascades.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM PST Saturday for South Washington Cascades.
PZ...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Friday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA | 37 mi | 50 min | S 13G | 44°F | 49°F | 29.82 | ||
| 46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) | 38 mi | 54 min | 53°F | 6 ft | ||||
| 46278 | 42 mi | 50 min | 53°F | 5 ft | ||||
| TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR | 42 mi | 50 min | 52°F | 29.87 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
No data
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KAST ASTORIA RGNL,OR | 2 sm | 24 min | calm | 3 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 43°F | 43°F | 100% | 29.82 |
Wind History from AST
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Warrenton
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:29 AM PST 7.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:36 AM PST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:33 AM PST 3.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:12 AM PST Moonset
Thu -- 02:12 PM PST 8.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM PST Sunset
Thu -- 07:17 PM PST Moonrise
Thu -- 09:30 PM PST -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:29 AM PST 7.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:36 AM PST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:33 AM PST 3.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:12 AM PST Moonset
Thu -- 02:12 PM PST 8.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM PST Sunset
Thu -- 07:17 PM PST Moonrise
Thu -- 09:30 PM PST -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.1 |
| 1 am |
| 4.9 |
| 2 am |
| 6.4 |
| 3 am |
| 7.2 |
| 4 am |
| 7.2 |
| 5 am |
| 6.5 |
| 6 am |
| 5.5 |
| 7 am |
| 4.5 |
| 8 am |
| 3.8 |
| 9 am |
| 3.8 |
| 10 am |
| 4.5 |
| 11 am |
| 5.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 7.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 8.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 8.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 8.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 7.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 5.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chinook, Baker Bay, Washington, Tide feet
Portland, OR,
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