Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warrenton, OR

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 9:00PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 10:25 AM PDT (17:25 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 5:19AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 258 Am Pdt Wed Jul 17 2019
In the main channel.. - general seas...3 to 4 ft through Wednesday night. - first ebb...strong ebb around 545 am Wednesday. Seas near 6 or 7 ft. - second ebb...around 545 pm Wednesday. Seas near 6 ft. - third ebb...strong ebb around 630 am Thursday. Seas near 9 ft with breakers likely.
PZZ200 258 Am Pdt Wed Jul 17 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure briefly returns today. A front moves through on Wed. High pressure will build offshore late in the week for a return to a more typical summer pattern which continues next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrenton, OR
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location: 46.17, -123.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 171651
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national service portland or
917 am pdt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis A frontal system will result in light rain spreading
southward across the area today and tonight. Drier and cooler air
arrives behind the front. Then warmer weather is expected for the
weekend.

Short term Today through Friday... Water vapor satellite imagery
reveals an unusually strong jet stream stretching across the lower
gulf of alaska that is taking aim at southern british columbia and
washington state. Models have initialized a 160-170 kt jet off the
coast, which will weaken as it pushes inland over the next 12-24
hours, but even then it may end up outside what has been observed
over washington state this time of the year via a 30 year naefs
reanalysis climatology. Closer to the surface, an extensive area of
clouds composed of multiple decks is apparent over the northeast
pacific via visible satellite imagery. The bulk of these clouds
are forming in an area of weak warm advection, which will slowly sag
southward across the area today. This should result in areas of
drizzle and light rain spreading southward across the area this
afternoon and evening. There may be just enough westerly flow to
produce some rain shadowing in the western portions of the willamette
valley, though. With relatively high precipitable water values,
hourly rainfall rates could peak in the 0.1"-0.2" hour range across
the most favored west facing slopes in the coast range, particularly
in tillamook county and points northward near the coast.

Between drier air pushing in behind a trailing cold front tonight and
a lowering subsidence inversion, expect rain chances to decrease
rather markedly late tonight into Thursday morning. Continuing
onshore flow on Thursday should should result in high temperatures
topping out a few degrees below average.

Another shortwave trough will swing around the parent gulf of alaska
trough and brush the region Thursday night into Friday morning. This
could result in some light showers streaming onto our north coast
during this time so will likely add at least some mentionable pops
with the afternoon forecast package. In addition, it will keep high
temperatures several degrees below average on Friday.

It should also be noted that dewpoints should drop closer to more
typical levels around 50f, which should result in Thursday and
Friday feeling much less muggy than the past week or so. Neuman

Long term Friday night through Tuesday... No changes... Previous
discussion follows... A high pressure ridge builds over northwest
oregon and southwest washington through Monday. This will keep
conditions fairly clear and dry through the weekend with warming
temperatures. Models are hesitating a little bit regarding exactly
how warm it will get, so didn't end up changing temperatures much at
all. Hopefully models will get into better agreement over the next 24
hours. The ridge begins to weaken Monday night as an upper trough
approaches from the northwest. However, will only see a little bit in
the way of cooling by Tuesday. Overall, the long term looks dry and
seasonably warm. Bowen

Aviation A warm front along the SW washington coast is
resulting in mostly MVFR conditions for the north coast, with
ceilings flirting with ifr. The rain and MVFR conditions will
extend further south along the coast, impacting ktmk, konp and
possibly k6s2 by 18z. The MVFR-ifr conditions will linger along
the coast into this evening and through tonight as a weak cold
front replaces the warm one around 0z.

Inland areas... The warm front will bring MVFR conditions for the
sw washington cascades and extreme north cascades this afternoon
around 20z and possibly impacting k4s2 and kttd.VFR will likely
remain in the willamette valley most of today with the best
possibility for MVFR conditions this evening and tonight.

Forecast soundings suggest the ceilings tonight will be around
1500 to 2500 ft.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR prevailing with 4000-7000 ft ceilings
this morning. Ceilings of 3500-4000 feet will become more
dominant this afternoon after 22z when a weak warm front moves
across the area. There is a better chance for MVFR ceilings
around 1500-2500 feet tonight after 0z as a dissipating cold
front moves inland from the coast. South winds this morning
should become sw-w around 0z. Showers will end early Thursday
morning withVFR returning. ~tj

Marine Buoy #46029 shows marginal small craft winds this
morning with a warm front supporting the current small craft
advisory. Seas are a mix of wind waves and a small (3 feet) long
period (18 sec) southwest swell. The waters south of pacific city
will briefly gust 21-25 kt later this afternoon, but do not
anticipate these stronger gusts to reach south of newport. ~tj
from previous discussion sent at 256 am... High pressure begins
to rebuild offshore on Thursday and strengthens for the weekend.

This will result in a return to northerly winds through early
next week. Gusts of 25-30 kt can be expected for the weekend with
the strongest winds beyond 10 nm offshore.

Seas start in the 3 to 4 ft range, then build to around 8 feet
Thursday morning. Seas will be choppy as this system passes with
the potential for square seas on Thursday morning. Seas will
stay above 5 ft through the weekend. The larger seas are a
product of the increased wind wave height from the short wave
system that moves through Wednesday night into Thursday but also
from a swell out of the NW that will be the dominant swell
throughout the forecast time period. -bphillips mh

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or out 60
nm.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm pdt this afternoon for coastal
waters from cascade head or to florence or out 60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 8 mi56 min S 6 G 8.9 63°F 69°F1013.2 hPa
46096 11 mi166 min 63°F
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 11 mi56 min 61°F6 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 30 mi36 min SSW 18 G 19 63°F 63°F6 ft1013.1 hPa (-0.3)63°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 37 mi62 min SSW 16 G 21 62°F 67°F1012.7 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 39 mi56 min 65°F5 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 42 mi62 min 67°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR2 mi31 minS 132.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist61°F60°F97%1013.1 hPa

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Last 24hr5W5W7W7W11W9W10W8W9W8W4W5SW3SW5SW5SW6S5S6S6S6S7S10S12S13
1 day agoSW6SW4W4W5SW6SW10SW10SW12SW11SW9SW8SW5SW4CalmSW3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W4
2 days agoN4N5N9NW8NW13NW12NW12NW8W9NW10NW9NW6W3SW5SW3N8SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmSW5SW6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon
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Warrenton
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Wed -- 01:36 AM PDT     8.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:40 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:19 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:41 AM PDT     -1.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:10 PM PDT     7.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:29 PM PDT     2.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:52 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.48.28.37.45.83.920.3-0.8-1-0.21.33.156.476.75.84.63.52.72.73.64.9

Tide / Current Tables for Chinook, Baker Bay, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.