Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cathlamet, WA

SHORT TERM
Now through Wednesday Night...Radar imagery and mesoanalysis as of 3 PM PDT depicts northwest flow aloft with isolated showers across portions of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Most of the shower activity has been north of Tillamook along the coast and north of Aurora in the Willamette Valley. Expect these showers to taper off throughout the afternoon with clearing skies.

Tonight, calm winds and mostly clear skies will lead to colder overnight temperatures via efficient radiational cooling.
Tuesday morning low temperatures are forecast between 33 to 36 degrees across most areas west of the Cascades except along the coast and inner Portland Metro Area. These colder temperatures along with sufficient surface moisture will lead to an increased potential for frost formation, especially over grasses and elevated metal surfaces. The current Frost Advisory remains in effect between 12 AM to 9 AM Tuesday for all areas west of the high Cascades, except for the coast and inner Portland Metro.
Urban heat island effects are likely leading to those warmer forecast temps in the Portland Metro Area.

Meanwhile, the original Frost Advisory in the Upper Hood River Valley has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning, also in effect from 12 AM to 9 AM Tuesday. Tuesday morning lows in this area are forecast between 28 to 32 degrees. The probability for a hard freeze occurring (temps falling below 28 degrees) in this area is around 5-15%. The coldest temperatures are forecast above 1000 feet elevation, between Odell and Parkdale. Take steps now to protect sensitive outdoor plants from the cold. To prevent water pipes from freezing, wrap or drain or allow them to drip slowly.

The frost/freeze threat should end by mid-morning Tuesday as daytime heating progresses. The upper level pattern turns into dry northerly flow, with ridging building over the NE Pacific and a shortwave trough dropping into the Intermountain West. No precipitation expected in our area with this shortwave trough.
High confidence for temperatures warming up into the mid 60s across the Willamette Valley tomorrow and low 70s by Wednesday with mostly sunny skies as upper level ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest. -Alviz


LONG TERM
Thursday to Sunday...Conditions generally remain warm and dry on Thursday as the upper level ridge progresses eastward. Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the week, with inland highs forecast to peak in the mid to upper 70s.
Probabilities for reaching 80 degrees or warmer are around 15-35%, mainly for the Portland Metro Area.

A pattern shift arrives Thursday night into Friday, as the majority of ensemble members from the GEFS, EPS, and GEPS are in agreement of an upper level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. There is still some uncertainty with the exact track and magnitude of the low, however, there is increasing confidence for a return of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation chances toward the end of the week. On Friday, NBM probabilities for 24 hour precipitation ending 5 AM Saturday of 0.25 inch or greater is around 15-30% along the coast and Willamette Valley, and around 40-60% for the Coast Range and Cascades. Cooler temps and precipitation chances remain through Sunday as broad troughing progresses through the Western U.S. -Alviz

AVIATION
Going through the rest of tonight and Tuesday expect mainly VFR conditions as northwest flow turns northerly aloft.
Satellite currently indicates some low cloud cover building along the west slopes of the Cascades this evening which is a feature we'll need to keep a close eye on. The subsection of high resolution guidance which shows this development suggest these likely meander further westward near/after sunrise which would drop KTTD down to MVFR CIGs for a period of time - potentially PDX and KUAO as well. High confidence in widespread VFR CIGs /VIS midday through the afternoon hours at all sites. Winds remain onshore at less than 10 kt, becoming light and variable overnight.
Expect these winds to increase along the coast and in the central/southern Willamette Valley for Tuesday afternoon with gusts up to 18-25 knots possible.

PDX AND APPROACHES...High confidence VFR CIGs hold through most of the overnight hours. We'll have to watch 12-18z for low clouds over the west slopes of the Cascades to potentially drift westward near the terminal while dissipating. Would give PDX a ~40% chance to see at least an hour of MVFR CIGs during the period. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail. -Schuldt

MARINE
Strong high pressure offshore along with a surface level thermal trough developing and strengthening over the southern and central Oregon coast will maintain northerly winds across all waters through the middle of the week. Central Oregon coastal waters will see increasing winds this evening into Tuesday morning with gusts of 20-25 kts at times. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for zone PZZ273. As the thermal trough strengthens over the coast, these winds are expected to spread north along the northern Oregon and southern Washington coastal waters late Tuesday into Wednesday night, with gusts 25-30 kts possible at times. Have added a Small Craft Advisory for zones PZZ253, PZZ252, and PZZ272 starting 2 PM Tuesday. The northern OR, southern WA zones may need a Small Craft Advisory at some point but gusty winds aren't expected to persist in these zones tomorrow. Strongest winds are expected to ebb and flow diurnally, strongest in the late afternoon to overnight hours, backing off in the morning hours. Seas are expected to persist around 6 to 8 ft around 10 seconds through the middle of the week.
-Batz/HEC

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for ORZ104>109-113>119- 123>125.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for ORZ121.

WA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for WAZ203>205-208.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ252-253-272.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ273.