Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 2:57 PM   Moonset 2:34 AM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 246 Pm Pdt Fri May 17 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - 4 to 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft Saturday afternoon.
First ebb - Ebb current of 3.09 kt at 112 pm Friday. Seas 6 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 3.68 kt at 157 am Saturday. Seas 5 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 3.05 kt at 206 pm Saturday. Seas 5 ft.

PZZ200 246 Pm Pdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure over the coastal waters and will continue through the weekend before the next front arrives Monday night into Tuesday.

FXUS66 KPQR 180402 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 901 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024

Updated Aviation Discussion

SYNOPSIS
Dry and cool weather for the rest of the day with pleasant onshore winds easing into tonight. Another shortwave trough pushes over the area Saturday into Sunday morning, but precipitation is minimal. Potential for more active weather starting Tuesday.

SHORT TERM
Now through Sunday...Maintaining zonal flow through the rest of today with little to no actionable weather.
Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s with winds decreasing in the Columbia River Gorge and ranges as onshore winds ease. Winds are expected to stay northwesterly through this evening. Tonight, temperatures will drop to the low 40s and winds will become light and northerly.

A shortwave trough will move southeast into the region Saturday and last through Sunday morning. With the low located north over central Washington, will experience the southern band of precipitation, resulting in minimal precipitation mostly in SW Washington. Guidance suggests a 30-50% chance of measurable precipitation for Saturday in SW Washington and north of Tillamook, and only a 10-20% chance from Portland to Salem. With 850mb air mass aloft expected to be around -2 degree C, expect temperatures to cool a degree or two. As the trough exits the region Sunday, a ridging pattern will develop and persist through early next week.

LONG TERM
Monday through Thursday...Warm conditions in the low 70s Monday. A potentially robust and organized trough will drop from the Gulf of Alaska into our region midweek, some time between Tuesday and Wednesday morning. The 500mb long range ensemble clusters suggest the trough arriving Wednesday morning/afternoon while NBM suggests Tuesday morning/afternoon.
This storm has potential to bring more precipitation than we have seen as of late. Ensemble member guidance suggests around 0.3 inch for 24 hour precipitation for inland valleys, with chances around 10-20% to exceed this value. Some members do suggest potential for precipitation accumulation to reach 0.5 inch, however there is not enough convergence to be certain (20-30% of members suggest 0.50 inch). Overall, there still is quite a bit of variation in the intensity and the timing. Either way, expect lingering showers Wednesday and then dry weather Thursday.
-JH

AVIATION
VFR conditions prevail across most of the airspace.
Guidance indicates VFR conditions prevail through Saturday for inland areas, but with a 10-20% chance for MVFR cigs from 10Z-20Z Sat. Coastal areas expected to remain VFR as well but with a 25-45% chance for MVFR cigs north of KTMK from now through around 20Z Sat. Will see a gradual increase in precipitation chances across north Oregon/south WA coastal area and along the Cascades starting around 18Z Saturday. Precipitation could result in brief periods of MVFR conditions. Winds will generally remain out of the northwest sustained between 5-10 kt.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR flight conditions through Saturday. There is around a 15% chance for MVFR from 10Z-20Z Saturday. Winds will generally remain out of the northwest sustained between 5-10 kt. /42

MARINE
North to northwest winds continue over the waters tonight as high pressure remains over the waters with a thermal trough along the south Oregon coast. Strongest winds occurring south of Newport (zones PZZ253,273) where pressure gradient tightest. Seas will be rather steep and choppy through tonight due to a fresh northwest swell around 7 to 9 ft with a dominant wave period between 7 and 9 seconds. Seas gradually subside and the periods increases Saturday to reduce choppiness.

High pressure over the upcoming weekend will result in a typical summertime northerly flow regime with wind gusts peaking in strength during the afternoon/evening hours each day. The strongest winds will occur over the southern zones where marginal small craft advisory level wind gusts to 25 kt are possible (20-40% chance on Saturday increasing to a 30-70% chance on Sunday and Monday).

The next frontal passage of any significance is set to arrive Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing rain and a shift to westerly winds. However, wind gusts look to generally stay around or below 20 kt as the pressure gradient associated with this frontal passage appears rather weak. The exception to that is over the northern outer waters where isolated small craft advisory level gusts to 25 kt are possible (20-50% chance). /mh-TK

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ251>253- 271>273.

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