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LSZ241 Expires:202310060000;;562980 Fzus73 Kmqt 052307 Mwsmqt
marine weather statement national weather service marquette mi 707 pm edt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz240-241-263-060000- 707 pm edt Thu oct 5 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters...
the areas affected include... Black river to ontonagon mi... Lake superior from saxon harbor wi to upper entrance to portage canal mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border including isle royale national park... Saxon harbor wi to black river mi...
at 707 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 11 nm east of devils island to near chequamegon bay, moving east at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will remain over mainly open waters.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
&&
lat...lon 4667 9043 4717 9010 4719 8952 4680 8956 4678 8976 4663 9001 4656 9034 4656 9044

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 102006 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 206 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

KEY MESSAGES
- Relatively colder night ahead tonight.

- Temperatures will remain close to normal to start the work week with a warm up expected for Thursday and Friday. Not much in the way of precipitation chances until the end of this week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday

A relatively quiet period lies in store from this afternoon through Monday, as upper ridging slides into the area. So far today, persistent low cloud cover has kept temperatures in the area relatively cool, with most not reaching the low 30s.

Cloud trends will be the main thing to watch going into the overnight hours, as cloud cover overnight will largely dictate the overnight low temperatures, especially . Thus far, many models still suggest clearing skies across the area, but low clouds have not budged since this morning despite the large- scale subsidence.
There are some hints that clearing may start in the north overnight as winds subside and lake enhanced clouds diminish.
Between the cooler start this afternoon, potential clearing, fresh snow pack, and light winds, kept the much colder temperatures in place across the region. If clearing occurs early enough, the cold spots will likely end up in the well into the single digits before sunrise.

Monday, quiet conditions continue under high pressure. Expect clear skies with plenty of sunshine and relatively mild near- normal temperatures for December, with highs in the lower 30s.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday Mostly dry conditions are expected for majority of the extended period with the next chance for precipitation forecast to arrive at the end of this work week. Temperatures will trend seasonal to begin the week with a warm up coming Thursday and Friday.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure will dominate the area through the early and middle parts of the upcoming work week. Far northern WI may get some stray areas of light snow as a clipper system moves through Ontario Monday night into Tuesday, however, the GFS and ECMWF have consistently keep the vast majority of the snow with this system well north of the area. SW winds are expected to become breezy Tuesday morning and afternoon due to a tightening pressure gradient as the aforementioned clipper system moves toward eastern Canada and high pressure pushes up into the western Great Lakes region. Additionally, mixing to around 900mb could bring some gusts of 30-35 mph to the surface Tuesday afternoon and evening. A second period of gusty SW winds is forecast for Thursday as the pressure gradient again tightens over WI. With the steady SW winds Thursday temperatures may warm into the 40s for most areas which is 10-15 degrees above climatology.

Friday through the end of the extended period...While there is uncertainty about the timing it looks like a cold front will sweep through WI sometime Friday. There will be a chance for some rain with this frontal passage, but the suite of global ensemble models (EPS, GEFS, and CMCE) currently has QPF under 0.10" so a washout is unlikely. There is more uncertainty about a potential system moving through the area Saturday. The most recent ECMWF has a shortwave associated with the southern steam of a split flow regime passing through during the day Saturday, however, this feature has not shown up in the GFS which is indicating another round of high pressure building in for the weekend.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1148 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

A fairly persistent low cloud deck will keep MVFR ceilings in place across the region through the afternoon and evening. Most of the area will see dry conditions during this time, with the exception of areas right along the Upper Peninsula border where a few flurries remain possible through the evening hours as well.

Tonight, have trended sky cover cloudier, which would keep MVFR ceilings in place through Monday morning. Still have some potential for some partial clearing overnight for portions of northern WI, but confidence was low on this, so kept mostly overcast conditions in place. Clearing will return to the region late Monday morning.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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