Monday, November18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Beach, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:40PM Sunday November 17, 2019 11:28 PM PST (07:28 UTC) Moonrise 9:21PMMoonset 12:16PM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 206 Pm Pst Sun Nov 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm to 11 pm pst this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect Monday morning...
In the main channel.. - general seas...around 6 ft through Monday. - first ebb...around 745 pm Sunday. Seas near 11 ft with breakers likely. - second ebb...around 845 am Monday. Seas near 10 ft. - third ebb...around 845 pm Monday. Seas near 11 ft.
PZZ200 206 Pm Pst Sun Nov 17 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A cold front is moving across the waters this afternoon and. Another frontal system is expected Monday and Tuesday. High pressure and north flow Tuesday night and Wednesday becomes offshore on Thursday. Weak low pressure is expected for Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Beach, WA
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location: 46.37, -124.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 180429 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
828 pm pst Sun nov 17 2019
updated: for evening aviation section

Synopsis Showers will taper off tonight leaving a several hour
break between systems. More widespread rain is expected Monday and
Monday night as a pacific low pressure system tracks eastward across
the pac nw. Post-frontal showers will linger into Tuesday,
especially in the higher terrain. A few inches of snow are possible
Monday night and Tuesday for the cascade passes as cooler air moves
in. Dry weather then returns Wednesday and persists through the rest
of the work week.

Short term Tonight through Wednesday... The frontal system has
sheared apart as it neared the coastline today. The upper portion is
now well away from the area while the surface portion is just now
crossing the coastline. As such, will continue to see shallow,
orographically driven, showers persist through the early evening.

The shearing appears to have occurred just as the heavier rain band
affecting the olympics earlier neared pacific county today. Rain
amounts so far seemed to peak on average near one-third of an inch
with isolated amounts near 0.50". Today's QPF decreases rapidly to
the south and east, as the moisture transport weakens considerably
while the front devolves into a loose baroclinic zone over western
oregon this afternoon and evening. Tonight should be mostly cloudy
and mild with some areas of fog due to the damp low level air mass.

Very little has changed for the forecast following tonight. The
position of the baroclinic zone tonight will have significant
implications on our weather Monday and Monday night, as a compact
but vigorous low pressure system approaches and moves onshore into
the pac nw. This system has moved about 5 degrees east to near
42n 150w and is beginning to tap into the above-mentioned
atmospheric river extending n-ne from hawaii while moving quickly
eastward. While no model depicts this low as being particularly
strong, would not be surprised if they are a bit on the weak side
due baroclinicity associated with it. For now, most guidance brings
this low onshore within 100 miles of astoria as a 1000-1005 mb low,
with some sort of secondary low dropping southward and swinging
onshore just behind it. Strong winds appear unlikely with this
system, even if the low strengthens 4-8 mb more than presently
expected. Even the strongest ensemble members suggest gusts topping
out around 45 mph along the coast and 30-35 mph inland as the low
moves onshore Monday afternoon and or evening.

The upper low moves inland Monday night, but that trailing upper
low vort MAX drops south along the western flank of the low Tuesday
and forms a new low as it continues diving south along the coastline
and into california. This will keep some chance of rain continuing
through most of the day Tuesday. The differing details of the models
will ultimately determine just how much rain fall and how long it
will fall, but amounts do not seem to be all that impressive once
the initial low passes by Monday night. Rain amounts through Tuesday
continue to increase with successive model runs. The bulk of the
rain arrives Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Amounts still
look to peak around 1-1.5" for the coast coast range, 0.30-0.70" for
the interior low lands, and 1.00-1.50" for the cascades with local
1.75-2.00" across the south washington cascades. Snow levels will
start off well above the cascade passes Monday, but may lower enough
for a slushy inch or two of snow on the passes Monday night and
Tuesday. Tuesday night clears out but not quite fast enough to see
temperatures significantly cool. Wednesday looks to be a pleasant
mid-fall day. jbonk weagle

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday... A rex blocking pattern
will continue dry weather Wednesday through at least Friday. The
models suggest that the rex block will break down by Friday, but
historically models have underestimated the resilience of blocking
patterns, and would not be surprised if the upper ridge over the
pacific NW keeps a front expecting to approach on Saturday well
north of the portland forecast area through at least Saturday. With
that said, have left slight chance to chance pops across sw
washington and extreme NW oregon Saturday night and Sunday when some
of the models forecast a front to spread rain across the area. The
drier air mass will make fog development less likely late in the
week despite fairly light overnight winds. Radiation cooling will
likely result in near freezing temperatures Thursday through
Saturday mornings and possibly into Sunday morning if the upper
ridge keeps the expected front to the north. ~tj

Aviation... Little if any change in the overall conditions tonight,
as region under weak high pressure. Widespread MVFR inland, with mix
of MVFR and ifr along the coast. This will persist into Mon am,
though CIGS inland will lower to low MVFR and ifr later this evening
and overnight. Next front will be approaching on mon, with rain
spreading along the coast around mid-day, and inland to the cascades
in the afternoon. Overall, slow improvement to higher end MVFR by
afternoon for most all areas.

Kpdx and approaches... Persistent MVFR cigs, with some patchy fog, for
tonight into Mon am. However, good bet CIGS will lower to around or
just under 1000 ft later this evening to just after midnight, and
persist well into Mon am. CIGS lift back to MVFR for Mon afternoon,
with rain increasing after 21z. rockey.

Marine Marginal small craft conditions for winds and seas
across the northern waters this afternoon in the wake of a
front. The winds will diminish and seas subside below small craft
criteria tonight. Then a slightly stronger front will return
small craft advisory conditions Monday afternoon and night.

Gusty northwesterly winds behind the front may keep small craft
conditions through Tuesday. Winds ease by Wed as a surface
trough sets up along the coast. Offshore winds are likely
Wednesday night and Thursday.A weak surface pressure gradient
supports light and variable winds on Friday.

Seas around 10 ft today, drop a foot or two tonight. A fresh
northwest swell 10-12 ft builds tu, and subsides below 10 ft
Wednesday night.

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 4 pm pst this afternoon for waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10 to 60
nm.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Monday to 1 am pst Tuesday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm to 11 pm pst this evening for
columbia river bar.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 11 am pst Monday for columbia
river bar.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 11 mi28 min 52°F7 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 19 mi58 min NNE 5.1 G 6 52°F 51°F1021.6 hPa
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 24 mi58 min E 4.1 G 5.1 1022.2 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 28 mi38 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 53°F8 ft1022.1 hPa (-1.4)52°F
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 35 mi58 min 52°F8 ft
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 37 mi52 min Calm G 1 50°F 52°F1021.9 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR17 mi33 minENE 310.00 miOvercast52°F52°F100%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SW11
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SW8SW10SW6W6CalmCalmCalmE5NE3
1 day agoS4E4CalmSE3SE3E3CalmCalmE3E4CalmE5CalmE8E4NE3CalmW4NE3CalmCalmE3SE3Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Tarlatt Slough, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Tarlatt Slough
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Mon -- 06:14 AM PST     7.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:08 PM PST     3.98 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:58 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:40 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:10 PM PST     8.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:32 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.72.64.56.17.37.97.87654.344.45.97.58.58.98.786.64.83.11.7

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Canby, Jetty A, Columbia River, Washington
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Fort Canby
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:17 AM PST     6.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:05 AM PST     4.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:58 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:03 PM PST     7.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:40 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:32 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:55 PM PST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.22.64.15.46.46.96.76.25.44.84.64.75.36.177.77.97.66.54.831.50.60.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.