Munising, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Munising, MI

June 16, 2024 8:05 AM EDT (12:05 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 9:46 PM
Moonrise 3:21 PM   Moonset 1:40 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LSZ249 /o.con.kmqt.ma.w.0021.000000t0000z-240613t1800z/ 144 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024

.a special marine warning remains in effect until 200 pm edt - .
for the following areas - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Marquette to munising mi - . Munising to grand marais mi - .
at 144 pm edt, a severe Thunderstorm was located near pictured rocks national lakeshore, moving east at 30 knots.
hazard - .wind gusts 34 knots or greater and large hail.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. Large hail could result in structural damage.
locations impacted include - . Miners castle, grand sable dunes, pictured rocks national lakeshore, and grand island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.
&&
lat - .lon 4663 8615 4653 8642 4638 8664 4671 8676 4683 8609 4663 8602 time - .mot - .loc 1744z 256deg 32kt 4665 8627
hail - .>.75in wind - .>34kts

LSZ200
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Munising, MI
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Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 161158 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 758 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Possible strong to severe thunderstorms this evening/tonight and Monday. Primary threat tonight: large hail.

- Very warm early in the work week, with frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 536 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Widespread rain showers have been lighting up the radar mosaic all night, and lightning has now increased to the southwest on current imagery as a warm front advances toward Upper Michigan. This morning's convective activity is in association with a shortwave trough currently situated over central Iowa and is expected to be non-severe as it spreads across Upper Michigan in the WAA corridor.

After this initial round, shortwave ridging will result in a lull in activity around mid-day. But, focus then quickly turns to a boundary that will be making its way across Minnesota and into far northwest WI that will be the source of decent low-level convergence later in the day. The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will be dependent on how well the environment can destabilize after this first round of showers and thunderstorms. And, this will likely not come until later in the day/evening when boundary layer heating peaks. With 0-6 km bulk shear approaching 30kts and MUCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg to the southwest per forecast soundings, the west/southwestern portions of Upper Michigan will need to be closely monitored from Mon 00Z to 06Z when that aformentioned boundary makes its way across Upper Michigan. And, as 700-500 mb lapse rates approach 6-8C/km, the primary threat will be large hail.

With early round of rain, did back off on temperatures a bit for today with maximums in the upper 70s/low 80s (west and central interiors) to low 70s (east). And, as usual, cooler near the lakeshores with upper 60s/low 70s. Overnight lows will be be warm and muggy in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 503 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Active weather continues through the extended period as troughing deepens over the western U.S. and ridging amplifies over the Eastern Seaboard. This pattern will cycle very warm and moist air over us early in the work week, in addition to many chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout. With strong shearing and abundant CAPE in the atmosphere, some severe weather could occur early this week.
More details follow below.

As the Great Lakes region remains situated in between the high- amplitude ridge and digging western trough Monday through Tuesday, southerly flow continues to pump in a warm, moist airmass with dewpoints well into the 60s and even above 70F Monday and Tuesday.
Monday will start off with rain chances as a subtle shortwave tracks through the area. Convection will be most likely across the western UP, closer in proximity to the weak wave as well as the frontal boundary that will be stalled out just to our west. Early on, shear is rather limited, and though we will be plenty unstable given such high dewpoints, lower to midlevel capping is apparent in soundings.
An early start to our convection may also limit destabilization.
That said, will not rule out some hail in morning/early afternoon convection if we can realize the full potential of the ~1000j/kg of CAPE analyzed over the area. Showers and storms will also have the impact of limiting temperatures over the western UP to the 70s, while the eastern half of the UP stands a better chance of reaching the lower to mid 80s. Will note that guidance is really struggling to come into agreement on the spatial extent of PoPs for the daytime, with some models showing a far greater eastward expansion than others.

Most of the UP should dry out Monday evening as the shortwave exits northward and the eastern ridge begins to build NW-ward again. That said, the western UP is not out of the woods as theta-e advection increases overnight on the nose of an impressive 40-50kt LLJ that will be directed into the Upper Midwest. Quite impressive CAPE in excess of 1000j/kg and bulk shear in excess of 40kts indicate a potential for strong elevated convection overnight, with the main risks being hail and gusty winds. Will also note a potential for heavy rain, given PWATS in excess of 1.5in and a potential for training storms ahead of a very slowly-moving front. Very important caveat: the front remains well off to our west, and guidance continues to just graze the western UP and western Lake Superior with PoPs.

Dry weather is looking likely across most of the UP through Tuesday while the frontal boundary stalled out over MN finally begins to slowly creep eastward. Under sunny skies, temperatures climb even higher than on Monday, possibly peaking in the 90s in many locations during; it's not out of the question that we could set a heat record or two come Tuesday as ensemble guidance shows temperatures around the 99th percentile of modeled climatology. If there is one upside, southerly winds will be fairly elevated given the tight pressure gradient over the area; expect gusts around 20-25mph for much of the UP.

The aforementioned frontal boundary crawls over the Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday, and looks to stall out just to our south into Thursday. Expect additional rain shower and thunderstorm chances as this moves through, with temperatures cooling close to normal. As more zonal flow moves over us with weak high pressure setting up shop over northern Ontario and the Northern Plains, expect to see the rain and thunderstorm chances continue as shortwaves continue to ride the upper-level flow across our area. A more trough-ey pattern sets up next weekend, and though details on track, timing, and strength of any particular features remain uncertain, this will in general keep rain chances in through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 758 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Deteriorating conditions through mid-morning at all TAF sites with plenty of fluctuation throughout the early afternoon as showers and isolated thunderstorms move through the UP. By mid-morning, though, anticipate MVFR/IFR to be the prevailing flight categories, but abrupt drops to LIFR cannot be ruled out, either, which just happened at CMX. In addition, will carry low level wind shear threat at all TAF sites through this morning. By early afternoon, anticipate a lull between rounds of showers/storms before a boundary comes through later today. Depending on how much the environment destabilizes, there will be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening into tonight. There could be brief improvement to MVFR/VFR around mid-afternoon, but this is low confidence and should be short-lived before falling back to MVFR/IFR. In addition to the LLWS threat, southerly surface winds will be strong with gusts up to 24 kts through the day.

MARINE
Issued at 503 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Winds generally out of the southeast this morning continue to gust up to 20-25kts across the eastern and north-central portions of the lake, but gusts increase to 25-30kts across the eastern half of the lake this afternoon while winds turn more southerly. In addition, some southerly gusts up to 30 knots will be possible along the south Lake Superior nearshores throughout the day, with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots being possible near Grand Marais and Munising during the afternoon hours. Winds weaken to 20 knots or less by late Sunday afternoon/evening and remain that way until Tuesday, when some southerly winds of 20 to 25 knots could be seen across much of the lake. Light winds of 20 knots or less returns Tuesday night and could remain through the rest of the week.

Several rounds of showers and storms are expected today through Tuesday with a frontal boundary stalled out over MN eventually moving through the area by midweek. Some severe weather is possible over the lake, particularly over the west, Monday through Monday night; the primary severe threat is hail, followed by winds. In addition, while significant wave heights look to be generally 4 feet or less over the next several days, we could see wave heights get up to 4 to 6 feet over the eastern half Sunday given the stronger southeast to southerly winds.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
KP53 4 mi69 minS 8 57°F 29.9154°F
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 37 mi47 minS 18G21 29.80
45211 42 mi39 min 48°F 42°F2 ft
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 44 mi85 minSE 8.9G13 58°F 29.99
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 53 mi85 minSE 12G16 62°F


Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KP0 sm9 minvar 06G16--57°F54°F88%29.88
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Wind History graph: P53
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Marquette, MI,




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