Monday, February17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Munising, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 6:18PM Monday February 17, 2020 7:28 AM EST (12:28 UTC) Moonrise 3:34AMMoonset 12:39PM Illumination 37% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ249 133 pm edt Mon sep 30 2019 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Grand marais to whitefish point mi... Green bay north of line from cedar river mi to rock island passage... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Lake superior from grand marais mi to whitefish point mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border... Marquette to munising mi... Munising to grand marais mi... At 133 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 33 nm northwest of minneapolis shoal to 24 nm northwest of grand sable dunes, moving east at 35 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. This strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds to around 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive. && lat...lon 4694 8523 4663 8559 4663 8615 4653 8642 4637 8665 4643 8677 4639 8690 4596 8695 4592 8688 4577 8691 4581 8712 4595 8696 4640 8690 4649 8702 4703 8642
LSZ249 Expires:201909301830;;590789 FZUS73 KMQT 301733 MWSMQT Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 133 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 LMZ221-LSZ249>251-266-267-301830-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Munising, MI
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location: 46.38, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 171207 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 707 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 505 AM EST MON FEB 17 2020

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a broad mid/upper level trough from north of Hudson Bay into the northern CONUS. A vigorous shortwave trough and upper level jet was moving out of Wyoming into Plains. At the surface, low pressure was located over northeast Nebraska with an inverted trough extending into the easter Dakotas. Mid clouds were increasing over MN and WI with increasing WAA ahead of the trough. Clear skies overnight have allowed temps to drop into the -10 to -20 range inland.

This morning into the early afternoon, expect clouds will continue to increase along with southerly winds as the trough move into MN. Temps should quickly rebound with readings into the upper 20s to around 30 by mid afternoon.

Late today through tonight,

The models were in good agreement that the strengthening shortwave trough and associated 130+ kt upper level jet will move in from the west bringing the inverted sfc trough through the western Great Lakes. This will result in widespread snow for the region. The models have also trended slower with the arrival of the snow and toward slightly lower amounts.

Moderate isentropic lift and 700-300 mb qvector conv with decent moisture inflow 2-3 g/Kg available) ahead of the trough could support some moderate snow accumulations over the central and eastern U.P. with QPF of 0.25-0.50 could result in 3 to 6 inch snowfall amounts, highest for the counties bordering Lake Mi and the Bay of Green Bay. SLR values should remain around 10/1-14/1 with only a relatively shallow DGZ around 8k to 10k ft below the greatest vertical motion.

There may be a brief period of fzdz over the west half as the mid level moisture departs overnight. However, little if any icing is expected.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 435 AM EST MON FEB 17 2020

Another warm-up is coming . but you'll have to wait until Friday. A progressive pattern this week begins with a building ridge across the NE Pacific that forced the downstream trough across the central CONUS. This trough holds the developing sfc low that is progged to lift north from the Central Plains through the Great Lakes region tonight into tomorrow. Behind this low, an arctic air mass will be pulled in as sfc high pressure sets up across the Midwest giving Upper Michigan a prolonged period of NW flow and LES. The Pacific ridge moves into the Canadian Rockies before traversing east to central NOAM Thursday. Heights begin to rise on late Wednesday night into Thursday, cutting off any leftover LES as high temperatures climb into the 30s by Friday. These positive height anomalies look to remain across the central CONUS into next week, with above normal temperatures expected.

Starting Tuesday, a sfc low will be lifting through the Great Lakes region as arctic air begins to wrap around with increasing winds from the NW. By 18Z Tuesday, models suggest 850mb temps will have fallen to near -18C as the LES machine turns on across the NW wind snow belts. At the same time, high pressure drops into the Northern Plains from Canada keeping a tighter pressure gradient. With some decreasing stability as colder air funnels into the region and modest height rises, will remain on the breezy side across Upper Michigan through Tuesday night . especially along the Lake Superior shoreline. High-res models peg a fair amount of LES between 12Z Tues and 06Z Wed as temperature profiles are cold, but not too cold, and the drier arctic air has not fully overtaken the UP. Model soundings support this idea as well with much of the column through the DGZ and inversions lifting to as high as 5kft. Hesitant to throw a forecast amt at this moment as there are some slight differences in model timing of drier air as some profiles suggest an inverted V sounding with drier air blo the cloud base. Though wouldn't be out of the question for LES amounts, outside of the low pressure system amts, to reach 3 to 5 inches across the west and 3 to 6 from Munising to Grand Marais between Tuesday and Wednesday.

As the aforementioned Pacific ridge pushes east through NOAM, a mid- level ridge pushes into Upper Michigan starting on Wednesday evening. As the Northern Plains high pressure continues to drop south and then east of the region through the day on Thursday, winds back to the SW as the ridge moves in and WAA begins. Medium range models are in decent agreement with this ridge as they suggest high temperatures on Friday climb into the mid-30s. As heights continue to rise and WAA continues through Friday, models suggest high temperatures increase a little more heading into Saturday with a chance at 40 for parts of Upper Michigan. Heading into Sunday, there remains some uncertainty wrt troffing through Canada as the EC and GFS have come closer together since yesterday morning's models with the GEM remaining colder and developing a deeper trough across the Great Lakes region. The EC keeps some troffing over the Great Lakes region, but 850mb temps still remain near 0C.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 702 AM EST MON FEB 17 2020

Mid clouds will gradually thicken and lower with MVFR cigs expected this afternoon with increasing low level WAA and moisture advection. Snow will then develop late this afternoon west into the evening central dropping conditions to IFR tonight, especially at KSAW and KCMX. There is lower confidence that IFR will develop at KIWD.

MARINE. (For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 505 AM EST MON FEB 17 2020

As a low pressure system moves toward the region Monday, winds will turn more southerly and increase to 30 knots over the east half of Lake Superior, then become northwest gales to 35 knots behind the low Monday night into Tuesday. Wednesday through Thursday, winds will remain 20-25 knots over the lake.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ006-007-014-085.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ005.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon to 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ Tuesday for MIZ010>013.

Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . JLB LONG TERM . JAW AVIATION . JLB MARINE . JLB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP53 4 mi32 min SSW 5.1 -7°F 1023.9 hPa-11°F
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 37 mi58 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 9°F 1021 hPa2°F
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 44 mi48 min SSW 6 G 8 11°F 1023.4 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 53 mi48 min ESE 12 G 14 22°F 1022 hPa

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Munising - Munising Lakeshore Observation, MI4 mi32 minSSW 5 mi-7°F-11°F82%1023.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP53

Wind History from P53 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11
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NW9NW12NW6NW15
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N9N10NW7NW3W3CalmS5S8S8S9S8S8S9S8S6S7SW5
1 day agoS13
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5S7SW6S5S7S7S8SW11SW7S7W8N13
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2 days agoS7SE6SW7W3W6S9S7S10
G18
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G26
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.