Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:53 PM Moonrise 10:12 PM   Moonset 6:09 AM

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LSZ249 115 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Marquette to munising mi - . Munising to grand marais mi - .
at 114 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. The leading edge of these Thunderstorms were located over shelter bay, moving east at 20 knots.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
&&
lat - .lon 4648 8702 4647 8712 4654 8714 4669 8651 4653 8642 4640 8663 4640 8671 4643 8677 4640 8690

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 252021 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 421 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Borderline elevated fire weather conditions continue this afternoon with minimum relative humidities around 20-25 percent across much of the area and wind gusts remaining mainly below 15 mph.
- Borderline to elevated fire weather conditions are expected Friday as RHs dip into the mid 20 to 30%, temps get into the mid 50s to low 60s, and S to SE'rly winds gust up to as high as 25 mph over the higher elevations and downslope areas.
- Two low pressure systems, one this weekend and another into early next week, bring rain showers and thunderstorms across our area. More of the rainfall arrives with the second low.
- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday, with the greatest chances over the south central and east.
The severe weather threats are marginally severe hail and winds.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 323 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

RAP analysis shows the high pressure is currently centered over southern Ontario, extending over the Great Lakes Basin with mid level ridging over the Plains and a trough over the southwestern U
S
WV imagery shows a significantly dry air mass over the CWA which is yielding clear skies and warmer than normal temps. With the high pressure shifting east through tonight, southeast flow will continue to keep the east cooler. An easterly wind component has been observed along Lake Superior, resulting from the lake breeze component, keeping those along the immediate lakeshore cooler. Highs in the east are expected to peak in the upper 40s to mid 50s this afternoon with low 50s to low 60s over the west; some mid 60s are possible in the far west where there is downsloping flow. Mixing has lowered RHs into the 20% range this afternoon save for areas with onshore flow off Lake Michigan, but luckily wind gusts are expected to continue mainly below 15 mph as winds aloft are also light. This will continue borderline elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon over the east and into the early evening hours over the west. Be mindful of burn restrictions.

The trough over the southwest takes a negative tilt tonight as it lifts northeast into NE/KS. With sfc high pressure and mid level ridging still over the Great Lakes, the dry weather under clear skies continues. While better subsidence will be located well east of the UP, radiative cooling should bring lows into the mid 20s to upper 30s with colder temps in the east. Light southeast winds continue, stronger over the west where there is downsloping. Model soundings indicate that the nocturnal inversion layer should prevent stronger winds aloft from mixing down until late tonight/early Friday morning over the far west, keeping gusts mainly below 20 mph until Friday morning. Meanwhile, a low pressure system set to impact the UP this weekend associated with the trough will be developing in the lee of the central Rockies.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 402 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The high pressure moves out Friday and gives way to a more active period this weekend through next week, with rain showers and thunderstorms moving into the far west as soon as late Friday afternoon/early Friday evening. There is a marginal risk for some severe weather Saturday as showers and thunderstorms continue across our area while the low pressure system moves into Lake Superior.
Behind this low, a second low pressure system brings more showers and thunderstorms back across the region early next week. While it looks like we will receive a quick reprieve from rainfall come next Tuesday, more shortwave lows look to impact our area by the end of the extended period.

The dry weather continues into the first half of Friday as the high pressure responsible continues to leave the area for the Atlantic off of the New England coast. In it's wake, a 986mb low over the Central Plains lifts towards Lake Superior throughout the day, increasing cloud cover across the U.P. by the afternoon hours. With the sun being out even into the early afternoon hours over the west though, and with the antecedent dry air conditions near the surface, thinking the RHs will bottom out to the mid 20 percents to around 30 percent across the interior areas of the U.P. by early Friday afternoon. In addition, with winds increasing from the south to southeast ahead of the approaching low to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the higher elevations and downslope areas, we could see borderline to elevated fire weather conditions across the area Friday as temps will be fairly similar to today. Therefore, follow all burn restrictions put out by your local DNRs on Friday. As the warm front of the low starts moving into the far west Friday afternoon, we begin seeing some showers and thunderstorms developing. As the antecedent dry air in the lower levels finally gives way to the precipitation aloft, the rain showers and thunderstorms spread into the rest of the U.P. from west to east throughout the rest of Friday night. As the low's center looks to enter into far western Lake Superior Saturday morning, a dry slot behind the warm front looks to move over our neck-of-the-woods. This will reduce the shower and thunderstorm activity across the area Saturday morning, and could even open up some spots of sunshine in the cloud cover. Should we see some patches of sunshine in the clouds Saturday, then expect the chances for severe weather to increase, particularly across the south central and east. Currently, most of the CAMs has severe thunderstorms missing our CWA to the south and east of us. However, with MUCAPEs around 1000 J/kg in the GFS and 2000 J/kg in the NAM, and with 0-6 km bulk shear being around 50 kts, severe weather is certainly a possibility up here Saturday (10 to 15% chance of seeing marginally severe hail and/or wind). The only limiting factor will be the uplift; thus, if we get some breaks in the clouds Saturday, expect our severe weather chances to increase. In addition to the severe weather, we could also see some heavy rainfall in some isolated spots, even though the model consensus keeps the heaviest precipitation amounts out of our area Saturday through Saturday night. Therefore, while it is certainly not expected, there is a small chance (20 to 30% chance)
that some low-lying poor drainage areas could see some localized flash flooding should multiple storms pass over.

A quick reprieve from the precipitation could (30 to 40% chance) come early Sunday morning before more rainfall moves over the area the rest of Sunday through Monday as a second low pressure system lifts through the Upper Midwest. While bulk shear values are greater Sunday, there is almost no CAPE to work with. Therefore, no severe weather is expected Sunday through Sunday night as the warm front passes through our area. That being said, the models do show higher QPF totals, with many areas possibly receiving over an inch of rainfall. Therefore, this second low pressure system is the one most likely to bring a soaking rainfall to our area these next several days. In addition, I'm thinking the chances for flash flooding will be ever so slightly higher over the poor drainage areas. As we move into Monday and Monday night, the cold front of the low moves through Upper Michigan, bringing additional rainfall to the area.
Given that we would then be under the warm sector of the low ahead of the cold front, with 0-6 km bulk shears near 45 kts and MUCAPEs currently near 500 to 1000 J/kg, severe weather could (10% chance)
be a possibility Monday. The rainfall finally leaves the east Monday night as weak ridging builds in from the west.

We look to get a quick reprieve from the rainfall next Tuesday as high pressure ridging quickly slides through the Upper Midwest.
However, model guidance brings a shortwave low from the Northern U.S. Rockies back across us come Tuesday night/Wednesday. As we look ahead beyond the extended period, it appears that an active weather pattern will continue, as the CPC still has above normal chances for precipitation and above normal chances for temps for the 8 to 14 day period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

With high pressure currently centered over southern Ontario shifting east toward southern Quebec, VFR conditions will continue at all sites through the 18Z TAF period. Winds will be generally light through most of tonight, mainly staying under 10 kts. Late tonight, increasing winds above nocturnal inversion may lead to conditions approaching LLWS criteria at IWD/CMX. Opted to add this into the IWD TAF where there is the highest confidence; will continue to monitor this with future TAF issuances. High clouds move in Friday morning ahead of the next system with some gusty south to southeast winds up to 20-25 kts.

MARINE
Issued at 421 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Light winds of generally 20 knots or less continue the rest of this afternoon through tonight before winds increase from the southeast to 20 to 30 knots across the eastern lake Friday (east winds 20 to 25 knots over the western lake by the evening). The higher winds continue into Saturday, with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots being possible over the far eastern lake near the international border Friday evening and again Saturday morning. As a low pressure moves into Lake Superior Saturday, expect the winds to calm down to 20 knots or less again. However behind the low, a second low begins lifting towards the Upper Midwest. This causes winds to veer to the northeast, with gales up to 40 knots being possible over the far western lake Sunday afternoon and evening. As the low's center lifts through Lake Superior Monday, the winds veer towards the south as they decrease to 20 to 25 knots. As the low's cold front moves through Monday and Monday night, expect winds to pick up from the west to 20 to 25 knots, before dying down to 20 knots or less again by Tuesday as weak ridging moves back over the area.

Thunderstorms are possible over the lake from Friday evening to Monday night.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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