Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Munising, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:18AMSunset 5:04PM Sunday December 8, 2019 3:31 PM EST (20:31 UTC) Moonrise 3:22PMMoonset 4:11AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ249 133 pm edt Mon sep 30 2019 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Grand marais to whitefish point mi... Green bay north of line from cedar river mi to rock island passage... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Lake superior from grand marais mi to whitefish point mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border... Marquette to munising mi... Munising to grand marais mi... At 133 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 33 nm northwest of minneapolis shoal to 24 nm northwest of grand sable dunes, moving east at 35 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. This strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds to around 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive. && lat...lon 4694 8523 4663 8559 4663 8615 4653 8642 4637 8665 4643 8677 4639 8690 4596 8695 4592 8688 4577 8691 4581 8712 4595 8696 4640 8690 4649 8702 4703 8642
LSZ249 Expires:201909301830;;590789 FZUS73 KMQT 301733 MWSMQT Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 133 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 LMZ221-LSZ249>251-266-267-301830-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Munising, MI
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location: 46.38, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 081727 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1227 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 409 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2019

While temperatures across the Upper Peninsula have climbed above freezing, for the most part, this morning the gusty south-southwest winds definitely make it feel much colder out. Winds across the area have gusted upwards of 25 to 30 mph inland from the Great Lakes, with 35 to 40 mph gusts near the shoreline of Lake Michigan and locations along the Lake Superior shoreline east of Marquette. Otherwise, a cloudy start to the day with upper-level clouds continuing to stream northeast across the area. Upstream of the region, a cold front continues to push into northwest portions of Minnesota, with shallow moisture surging in along and behind the front.

Through this afternoon, ahead of the approaching cold front minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion remain possible for locations susceptible to southwest winds/waves from Big Bay de Noc over to Seul Choix Point. Otherwise, southwest winds will start to relax later this morning.

As the cold front drops southeast across the Upper Peninsula, winds will become northerly and gusty, especially over the Keweenaw Peninsula. The shallow moisture trailing along and behind the front will push into the area bringing with it light precipitation, later this morning across the west and this afternoon across the central and east. The complicated nature of the precipitation today through this evening will be what form it takes. Initially, temperatures should be warm enough to support drizzle, but as lift increase and the strong cold air advection works in behind the front precipitation will likely switch over to a mixture of snow and freezing drizzle. Confidence isn't high in regards to what the predominant precipitation type will end up being this afternoon and evening, as forecast soundings show the depth of the shallow moisture varying in time, leading to uncertainty as to whether or not ice nucleation will be reached. It is very possible that locations across the higher terrain out west and in the north- central will see some additional lift/cooling due to upsloping northerly winds, which may favor more snow than freezing drizzle. Given the sharply colder air expected to move in behind the front, will temperatures falling throughout the afternoon across the west and central, thinking light snow will be enough to make for slick, icy spots alone. Throwing freezing drizzle into the mix, did opt to issue an SPS to highlight the potential impacts for those out traveling today/tonight.

Tonight, winds will become northeasterly as a surface low gets organized well to our south. This northeast flow will continue to allow light precipitation to impact much of the west and central, especially areas susceptible to upslope northeast flow. Any locations with lingering freezing drizzle should switch over to mostly all snow across the west and north central as colder air starts to move into the area around midnight or so. By around 4am EST on Monday morning, deeper moisture looks to arrive to locations out west, resulting in an uptick in snow intensity. This will be the start of the next widespread snow maker, see the long-term forecast discussion for more details about how things are looking for Monday.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 500 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2019

A quasi-zonal mid/upper level pattern will become more amplified this week as a ridge builds along the West Coast with a deep downstream trough from Hudson Bay into the north central CONUS. This will allow Arctic air to plunge into the Great Lakes with much below normal temperatures by the middle of next week. Moderation is expected toward the end of the week as the colder air lifts into eastern Canada and flow again becomes more zonal with milder Pacific air moving into the region.

Mon, the models have trended slightly northward and are in relatively good agreement with the development of a sfc low that lifts through north central lower Michigan. As a result, the heavier pcpn has also shifted a bit to the northwest compared to previous forecasts. Strengthening fgen in the right entrance region of a 250-300 mb jet stream from northern Ontario into northern Quebec and 700-300 mb qvector convergence ahead of the mid level trough is expected to bring a large area of light snow to the region. The overall QPF ranges from 0.20-40 over the west to 0.10-0.20 over the south and east. The snow totals will be boosted by lake enhancement in the ne to n wind snowbelts where the combination of stronger forcing and deeper moisture will occur as 850 temps drop near -15C late in the day. Although there is some uncertainty with SLR values, with values from around 15/1 to possibly 20/1 snow totals in the 4 to 7 inch range are expected over the northwest half, especially where low level convergent nne flow is strongest, near IWD and north central. An advisory has been issued to cover the expected snow, with a mention of mixed pcpn (fzdz) early central.

Tue-Thu morning, Much colder air will move in as CAA strengthens from Tue into Tue night. Models fairly consistent showing 850 mb temps dropping to around -25C by Tue night into Wed morning which will favor moderate to heavy LES for the nw-wnw wind favored locations Tue night into Wed. Highs Wed will only reach into the single digits over the interior west and the low teens east with double digit below zero readings expected interior portions of the west Wed night. Wind chill values could also approach advisory criteria (around -25) late Tue night and Wed night/Thu morning for a few spots over the interior west half.

Thu-Sun, Models indicate the pattern deamplifying toward the end of next week with the mid-level trough and cold Arctic air lifting into eastern Canada and a more moderating Pacific zonal flow setting up across the northern Conus and Upper Great Lakes region. Models hint at a few shortwaves moving through which could bring chances for some light snow late Thu into Sat. The GFS seems to be an outlier with the strength of the shrtwv and light snow potential moving through on Thu. There is slightly better model/ensemble agreement with the potential for a shrtwv moving in for Saturday that could bring light snow with some LES as slightly colder air moves in toward Sun. Expect high temps toward the end of the week (Fri-Sat) to rebound closer to normal with readings into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1226 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2019

MVFR ceilings at KIWD/KSAW will drop down to IFR over the next couple of hours as winds become northerly behind a cold front currently over the western UP. IFR ceilings are likely to persist through the forecast period at these sites. KCMX is currently experiencing IFR ceilings but low end MVFR conditions should prevail later today/tonight. Have mentions of drizzle along and just behind the front, switching over to a freezing drizzle/light snow mix and then eventually all snow late tonight. Precipitation will remain light through most of tonight. As temperatures drop behind the cold front, it is possible that very minor accretion of ice could occur on untreated surfaces before precipitation becomes all snow.

Aviation conditions will further deteriorate through Monday morning as widespread moderate snow is expected to impact all terminals. Visibility will likely drop below LIFR thresholds at times.

MARINE. (For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 222 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2019

South to southwest gales of 35-40kts continue across the far eastern Lake Superior and the nearshore zones east of Marquette and over to Whitefish Point. Given ship reports in the area showing solid 35 to 40 knot gales and models looking to hang onto these stronger winds through 12-15z, did opt to issue a gale headline earlier this morning as it appears the winds look to hold on a bit longer than originally anticipated. By mid to late morning, winds across the lake will to around 20 knots, followed by a cold front passage later this morning through this afternoon. Immediately following the cold front passage, winds will become northerly 25 to 30 knots across much of the lake. Not out of the question that there could be a few gale force gusts along and immediately behind the cold front across the north central. Tonight through Monday morning, winds become northeast between 20 and 30 knots, with the strongest winds expected to funnel down the western arm of the lake into the Duluth area. By mid-day Monday, winds remain 20 to 30 knots, but winds start to become northerly as a low pressure system tracks lifts northeast across lower Michigan.

As this low tracks over Lake Huron Monday night, arctic air will spill across the lake with northwest winds between 20 and 30 knots. Expect this colder, more unstable airmass to linger across the lake through the end of the week. Tuesday through Thursday, winds will predominately be westerly, between 20 and 30 knots. A few gale force gusts cannot be ruled out at times Tuesday through Thursday, especially on higher platforms. This sharply colder air mass will also allow moderate freezing spray to develop after the initial cold front passage early on in the week. As much colder air works down on Wednesday, it continues to look like heavy freezing spray will develop.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ014.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ Monday for MIZ001>005-009-084.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ013.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MIZ010- 011.

Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ248-250.



SHORT TERM . Ritzman LONG TERM . JLB AVIATION . KCW MARINE . Ritzman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP53 4 mi36 min SW 5.1 37°F 1006.7 hPa29°F
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 37 mi44 min NNW 6 G 12 34°F 1006 hPa30°F
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 44 mi52 min W 12 G 16 38°F 1006.8 hPa
GRIM4 44 mi22 min N 20 G 24 35°F 1006.7 hPa33°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 53 mi30 min WSW 11 G 16 38°F 1007.5 hPa

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Munising - Munising Lakeshore Observation, MI4 mi96 minSW 7 mi37°F28°F70%1006.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP53

Wind History from P53 (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW9
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2 days agoSW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmW5NW16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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