Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Munising, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 8:48PM Thursday April 22, 2021 9:24 AM EDT (13:24 UTC) Moonrise 2:07PMMoonset 4:05AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ249 Expires:202011100515;;599698 Fzus73 Kmqt 100415 Mwsmqt Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette Mi 1115 Pm Est Mon Nov 9 2020 Lsz248-249-265-266-100515- 1115 Pm Est Mon Nov 9 2020
.showers producing gusty winds over the waters... The areas affected include... Huron islands to marquette mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Lake superior west of line from manitou island to marquette mi beyond 5nm from shore... Marquette to munising mi... At 1112 pm est, doppler radar indicated a narrow line of showers, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These showers were located along a line extending from 14 nm northeast of granite island to 8 nm south of presque isle, moving east at 20 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty west winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and torrential rainfall as these showers pass. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these showers pass. && lat...lon 4649 8703 4644 8726 4649 8741 4651 8745 4687 8708 4686 8651 4663 8660 4664 8664 4656 8663 4640 8670 4643 8677 4640 8690
LSZ249


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Munising, MI
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location: 46.38, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 221045 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 645 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 507 AM EDT THU APR 22 2021

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery showing very little cigs this morning as most of the low level cloud deck has pushed east and south out of the Upper Michigan area, with northerly flow aloft at 500mb bringing cirrus clouds overhead from Ontario. Surface high pressure and subsidence have begun to move into the region as the upper level ridge, in addition to isentropic and adiabatic warming aloft, are slowly occurring. Weak pressure gradients currently over the Great Lakes have resulted in light winds overnight also. The mostly clear skies earlier this evening into the morning hours have allowed temperatures to decrease into the middle and upper teens across the interior west of Upper Michigan. As the morning hours continue, expect the overnight lows will level off as the adiabatic warming at 850mb will slowly reach the surface through weak mixing, especially after sunrise.

Expect mostly sunny to clear conditions today with the upper level ridge axis propagating toward the northern Great Lakes. Temperatures are likely to warm quickly as surface winds from the sw creep up to 10-15mph by this afternoon, creating some local terrain downslope enhancements near the northern shorelines adjacent to Lake Superior. 850mb temperatures will reach between 0C to 3C for the west half, and 0C to -3C for the east half. This will lead to warmer temperatures the further west you travel by this afternoon during the diurnal maximum timeframe. However, as we get warmer this afternoon with highs cresting the 50 degree mark for several areas nearshore, and the mid to upper 50s for the interior portions of Upper Michigan, the land breeze effect is likely to cool things off by late afternoon for several areas.

The upper level ridge axis will be over the Northern Great Lakes overnight, resulting in warmer temperatures aloft, and assisting with elevated surface temperatures. 850mb temperatures will warm to levels between +2C to +5C overnight. This will translate into overnight lows staying above freezing for several areas. The northern half of Upper Michigan could remain near 40 degrees overnight because of local w to sw winds creating additional downslope compression effects and adiabatic warming, especially the Keweenaw and northern shorelines of Marquette/Baraga counties. Areas further to the west near Ontonagon/Gogebic counties will begin to see high level cloud cover creep into the area tonight and into early Friday morning on the backend of the departing upper level ridge. This will be also due to the approaching shortwave disturbance to impact the region later into the forecast periods.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 441 AM EDT THU APR 22 2021

Progressive split flow pattern with the northern jet branch dominant over the Upper Great Lakes will result in generally cool and unsettled weather over the area from late this week into the weekend. A mid-upper level trough will then amplify over the western CONUS early next week inducing a downstream ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS. The sw flow aloft into the Upper Great Lakes between these features while leading to warmer weather next week, will also result in a baroclinic zone/frontal boundary setting up across the region bringing more opportunities for rainfall early into especially the middle of next week.

Beginning Friday, despite an increase in mid-level cloud cover ahead of an approaching weak shortwave from the west, NAM model soundings indicate deep mixing and steep lapse rates through 750mb with an inverted-v signature. Model guidance suggests highs in the mid 50s possible, and the very dry air in the lower 200mb will likely work against weak forcing from the shortwave to limit shower activity to isolated coverage at best over mainly far western zones. Deep mixing of drier air to the sfc will likely lower dew points into the mid to upper 20s over the interior resulting in min RHs in the 25 to 35 percent range, lowest central and east.

The better chances for pcpn will come on Saturday as a shortwave rides along the cold front moving across the area. Fgen along the boundary will support a band of showers moving into the western U.P. in the morning and then progressing into the central and eastern U.P. in the afternoon and evening before pcpn exits the eastern U.P. late evening or early overnight. NAM and GFS soundings still indicate a phase change from rain to snow through the day behind the frontal boundary. At this time only light snow is expected of half an inch or less. Tightening gradient behind the front with a low developing over eastern Ontario Sat evening could lead to breezy north winds Sat night, especially over the east half of the cwa. NAM and ECMWF indicate a surge of CAA behind the front with H85 temps falling to -10C or colder which could maybe support some flurries into the eastern cwa into Sunday morning. High temps on Saturday will range from the upper 30s to around 40F west behind the cold frontal passage to around 50F south central and east ahead of the front.

High pressure ridge moving over the area will result in dry weather on Sunday with sunny skies most of the day. Expect highs mostly in the 40s. Model solutions begin to vary into the Sun night into Monday time frame. The GFS showing its familiar bias of likely ramping up isentropic lift too quickly from the south and west in response to shortwave energy lifting ne from the western CONUS trough into the western Plains. As a result, the GFS already brings showers into the western and central fcst area Sunday night while the other models hold off on showers until Monday.

Signals are there though for a warm period early next week as a trough digging into the western CONUS will amplify a ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS. The resulting sw flow aloft and WAA will bring a warmer air mass into the Upper Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday. 850mb temps on Monday climb to around 5C, and then increase to 10-13C by Tuesday. However, warming will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and a moderating se flow off Lake Mi at the sfc. Expect highs Monday in the mid to upper 40s east half and across the Keweenaw to the lower to mid 50s west and southwest. Highs will be a bit warmer on Tuesday ranging in the mid 50s to lower 60s most locations. Increasing Gulf moisture in a southerly flow will bring PWAT values up to 1-1.4 inches by midweek or around 150% of normal for this time of year. The increasing moisture along with the approach of a shortwave and associated sfc low and frontal boundary lifting northeastward from the Southern Plains will bring increasing chances of rainfall, especially Tue night into Wed.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 642 AM EDT THU APR 22 2021

VFR flight conditions will prevail at all terminals through the 18Z period. West to southwest winds will increase later today during the afternoon through overnight hours, primarily at KCMX. IWD and SAW will stay near 12 knots or less through today.

MARINE. (For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 256 AM EDT THU APR 22 2021

Winds will be around 20 kts or less across the lake through this evening. Gusts of 20-30 kts over the central half of the lake are possible overnight Thursday due to a weak upper level disturbance moving over the lake through early Friday morning. Wind gusts of 20- 25 kts for the remainder of Friday can be anticipated, before dissipating to 20 kts or less Friday night through Saturday morning. On Saturday evening, a weather system will approach the northern Great Lakes. The surface low will lead to strengthening NW winds to around 20 to 30 kts on the east half of the lake Saturday night. Winds are expected to diminish below 20 kts Sunday morning into Sunday night before increasing again to 30 to 30 knots on Monday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . None. Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . BW LONG TERM . Voss AVIATION . BW MARINE . BW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP53 4 mi28 min WNW 6 36°F 1015.5 hPa15°F
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 37 mi54 min W 6 G 11 34°F 1014 hPa11°F
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 44 mi44 min WSW 9.9 G 13 33°F 1015.2 hPa
GRIM4 44 mi34 min W 8 G 9.9 37°F 1014.2 hPa22°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 53 mi44 min W 15 G 17 36°F

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Munising - Munising Lakeshore Observation, MI4 mi28 minWNW 6 mi36°F15°F42%1015.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP53

Wind History from P53 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7NW11NW4NW8N8
G16
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NW9NW9NW5NW5CalmS5S5S6S5S6S6S7S6SE6S5W6
1 day ago----N17
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N10N13N14N14N11N10N11NE11N10NW7NW3
2 days agoNW15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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