Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 9:22 PM Moonrise 3:24 PM   Moonset 3:06 AM

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LSZ249 Expires:202405122228;;102540 Fzus73 Kmqt 122220 Mwsmqt
marine weather statement national weather service marquette mi 620 pm edt Sun may 12 2024
lsz248-249-265-122228- /o.can.kmqt.ma.w.0002.000000t0000z-240512t2245z/ 620 pm edt Sun may 12 2024
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Huron islands to marquette mi - . Lake superior west of line from manitou island to marquette mi beyond 5nm from shore - . Marquette to munising mi - .
the Thunderstorm has weakened and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters, although there could still be a stray lightning strike or two occurring from shot point eastward in the next half hour.
&&
lat - .lon 4648 8702 4644 8724 4648 8739 4658 8751 4664 8750 4663 8729 4657 8728 4659 8713 4662 8704 4661 8695 4657 8690 4655 8683 4660 8674 4642 8678 4640 8690 time - .mot - .loc 2216z 278deg 31kt 4652 8722

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 181113 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 713 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

-Breezy south winds and very warm temps in the 70s and 80s today ahead of a cold front that will bring scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms. The strongest storms may contain small hail.

-Borderline elevated fire weather expected this weekend with breezy conditions today then very dry with light winds on Sunday.

-More rain chances early to middle of next week as a series of disturbances moves across the area in a developing warm and moist southerly flow.

UPDATE
Issued at 713 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

The forecast remains on track this morning, with a few showers and rumbles of thunder re-developing across far western Lake Superior.
These may graze our western shores through the morning. Otherwise, temperatures this morning hover in the 40s and 50s across most of the morning, though some spots in the western UP managed to stay above the 60 degree mark this morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Morning RAP analysis shows midlevel troughing digging into the Northern Plains, extending out from deep low pressure centered over Lake Winnipeg. An embedded vort max and co-located surface low are apparent over the Dakotas. Water vapor imagery reveals drier midlevel air immediately behind this. Warm, more moist air continues to be pumped into the Upper Midwest as we remain comfortably in the warm sector, with with robust SSW flow courtesy of a 40-50kt LLJ directed into the region. A few rain showers linger across the western UP and over Lake Superior with an initial weak shortwave moving through. However, another round of convection is expected to move over western Lake Superior and possibly scrape the western UP as the exit region of the jet slides eastward. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible. Otherwise, skies remain mostly clear across the eastern half of the UP, but cloud cover is apparent to the west and across Superior with this spotty convection.
Temperatures across the eastern UP are falling into the 40s and lower 50s, but to the west, with more cloud cover and southerly downsloping winds, temperatures are coming in much warmer with lows expected to range in the mid and even upper 50s.

As we head into the daytime hours, morning convection largely stays offshore with a sunny start expected for most of the UP. 850mb temperatures climbing up to 14-16C will yield highs well into the 70s to lower 80s across much of the area. The Lake Michigan shoreline will be cooler with southerly onshore flow; temperatures there may struggle to get out of the 60s. The tightening pressure gradient ahead of the Plains system, along with deepening mixing during the daytime hours, will produce gusty southerly winds with most of the area gusting up to 20-25mph during the afternoon. Where southerly flow is downsloping, particularly across Gogebic and Ontonagon counties, higher gusts around and in excess of 30mph are possible (hi-res ensemble guidance up to 70% chance for such gusts).
Windy conditions in combination with hot temperatures will lead to borderline elevated wildfire potential. The area of uncertainty remains the depth of mixing, with the hi-res guidance favoring deeper mixing compared to the global models. As of right now, continued to favor pockets of RH dropping to near 30%, but if the deeper mixing can play out, even lower values will be possible.

Meanwhile, the shortwave over the Dakotas will swing into MN by the afternoon and eventually into northern Ontario this evening. An associated cold front quickly moves through the UP this evening, touching off another round of convection. Simulated reflectivity continues to favor a narrow line of showers/storms reaching our western shores around 21Z, reaching M-95 by 02-03Z and quickly moving eastward out of the UP between 06-08Z. MLCAPE will be up to 500-1500j/kg just ahead of the front, with around 30-40kts of bulk shear indicating the potential for some strong to marginally severe storms. The main threats with this setup would be hail and gusty winds. The area of greatest concern would be the western half of the UP; by the time the front reaches even the central UP, we'll have run out of daylight and will be stabilizing. As far as rain totals ensemble guidance favors a quick 0.10-0.20in of rain for the most part, but there is a chance (30-40%) for heavier amounts up to a half inch in any heavier downpours.

Skies quickly clear from west to east behind the front while winds shifting over to the west turn calm. Expect lows ranging in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the area.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

After a continued warm and very dry day on Sunday, the focus then shifts to a couple of widespread rain events for early/mid next week before a transition to a period of below normal temperatures by late week.

Beginning Sunday, surface ridging and its associated much drier air mass will take hold in the wake of tonight's frontal passage.
Abundant sunshine and light winds will result in deep mixing into extremely dry mid-levels during the day. For example, the 18z NAM fcst soundings valid at 18z Sunday over several of the interior west half sites show -30C or drier dew points at nearly 800 mb or approximately 5 kft AGL. Fortunately, surface dew points won't mix that low, but by incorporating the local mixed dew point tool I did cut back on Td values resulting in min RHs closer to 20% across the interior portions of the cwa. The good news is light winds generally 10 mph or less should ease fire wx concerns. Lake breeze activity should limit fire wx concerns along the shorelines due to cooler temps in the 60s and higher RHs. Expect max temps reaching near 80F over much of the interior west half and mid to upper 70s over the interior east half.

Models advertise a mid-level trough amplifying over the western CONUS early next week. Periodic shortwaves in a warm/moist sw flow developing ahead of the western CONUS trough will bring more rounds of showers into the area early to mid next week. The first of these shortwaves moves through late Sun night into Monday bringing the initial batch of showers and isolated t-storms for early next week. Models show this system tapping into Gulf moisture with PWATs increasing to around 1.5 inches by midday Monday. This increase in moisture along with increasing isentropic ascent should lead to widespread wetting rain across much of the cwa.
Ensemble probabilities show much of the area (except maybe the tip of the Keweenaw) with a 40-60% chance of seeing 0.5 inch of rain from this system with the greatest chances south central.
After a period of drier weather Monday night into Tuesday morning, the next shortwave moves through Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday spinning up a 985-990 mb sfc low which tracks over the far western portion of the fcst area late Tue night into Wed. With PWAT values again increasing to nearly 1.5 inches along with increasing isentropic ascent, PVA and upper diffluence fcst with the shortwave, expect widespread rainfall across the area. EPS probabilities again show a 40-60% chance for getting half an inch of rainfall from this system with the greatest chances southeast and west.

Despite the midweek system lifting north and east of the area, models indicate wraparound moisture behind it could support lingering isolated to scattered showers for late week (Thu-Fri) as temperatures trend cooler than normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 713 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR will prevail thru this fcst period at IWD/CMX/SAW. An approaching cold front will lead to a 2-4hr window for rain showers beginning at IWD and CMX by early evening at reaching SAW after 00z.
Some thunder will be possible, especially at IWD and CMX. Expect gusty southerly winds today with gusts of 20-30kts possible.

MARINE
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Stable conditions will lead to light winds of generally 20 knots or less prevailing over the lake into early next week, except for some 20-25 kt southeast gusts today over the east half ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms are possible today into tonight as the cold front marches across the lake. These storms may contain small hail, gusty and erratic winds, and frequent lightning.
More thunder chances return late Sun night into Monday and then again late Tuesday into Tuesday night as a series of disturbances track northeast across the Upper Great Lakes region. Models and ensembles indicate winds will ramp up Tue night into Wed as a stronger low pressure center tracks across the western and northern portions of the lake. Ensemble probabilities show a 40-60 pct chance of gale force gusts to 35 knots late Tue night into Wed across western and northern sections of the lake.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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