Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Naselle, WA

SHORT TERM
Now through Tuesday Night... A colder night is expected tonight as clear skies, light winds, and high pressure create ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Temperatures are expected to dip into the 33-36 degree range across much of the interior, particularly in sheltered valleys and outlying rural areas. This will set the stage for patchy frost formation late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Highest probabilities for temperatures at or near freezing (50-90%) are focused on the central and southern Willamette Valley, the Upper Hood River Valley, the Cascade foothills, and portions of the Coast Range.

Areas with lower confidence for frost - including the Cowlitz Valley and other marginal locations, still show a 20-40% probability of reaching frost thresholds. The coast and much of the Portland/Vancouver metro are expected to remain above 36 degrees, though some fringes (such as Battle Ground and Hillsboro) may briefly approach colder temps.

Sensitive outdoor vegetation should be protected tonight with covers or moved indoors where possible. With relatively high confidence in frost formation tonight for inland valleys, excluding Portland and Vancouver, the currently issued Frost Advisory will remain. Another cold night is possible Tuesday night, although slightly warmer air may keep low temperatures 2-3 degrees higher, especially in western zones. Any lingering frost risk Tuesday night will likely be confined to the Upper Hood River Valley and higher elevations of the southern Willamette Valley and Cascade foothills.

High temperatures will trend upward through midweek. Expect highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s today and Tuesday, warming into the upper 60s and low 70s by Wednesday under dry and mostly sunny conditions.
~Hall

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Saturday night...
A warm and dry pattern will persist through midweek, with the ridge aloft peaking on Wednesday. Most valley locations will reach the upper 60s to mid 70s, with ensemble guidance showing only minor spread in high temperatures. By Thursday, the ridge begins to weaken as a Pacific trough approaches. Model solutions diverge on timing and intensity, but NBM guidance shows highs ranging from the low 70s (10th percentile) to the low 80s (90th percentile) depending on the progression of the frontal system.
As of now, looks like Thursday may be the warmest day of the week. Above-normal temperatures are expected across the board.

Precipitation chances increase late Thursday into Friday as the system moves inland. Ensemble guidance from the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS all suggest measurable rainfall, though the timing remains variable. Rain could begin as early as Thursday evening in some solutions, while others delay onset until Friday evening. NBM probabilities for at least 0.25 inches of rain from 5AM Friday to 5AM Saturday range between 25-50% for most areas, with the highest values focused on the Cascades and Coast Range. Cooler and more unsettled weather is expected to continue into the weekend.
~Hall

AVIATION
Expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period as northwest flow persists aloft. Lingering light showers continue into Monday morning, generally along and north of a line from Clatsop County to Clackamas County. CIGs generally remain at or around 3.5-5kft through the period excluding KONP which will hold onto MVFR CIGs until ~12z Monday. Probabilities for MVFR CIGs inland are only around 10-30%. However, probabilities for MVFR ceilings across the area increase if rain showers move overhead.
With some clearing currently developing over the central and southern Willamette Valley, we'll also have to watch for patchy sunrise fog development. However, confidence in placement and timing is low at this time as model guidance only indicates around a 10% chance of fog. Winds remain generally less than 10 kts, although gusts around 20 knots appear likely at KONP Monday afternoon.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Expecting generally low end VFR CIGs through the overnight hours with occasional MVFR CIGs in showers. Expect CIGs around 2.5-4kft gradually raising above 4-5kft by later Monday afternoon. A few showers are possible through 20z Monday, which could bring CIGs below 3kft. Winds stay fairly light from the west to northwest, generally less than 10 knots. -Schuldt/HEC

MARINE
Strong high pressure offshore along with a surface level thermal trough developing and strengthening over the southern and central Oregon coast will maintain northerly winds across all waters through the middle of the week. Central Oregon coastal waters will see increasing winds this evening into Tuesday morning with gusts of 20-25 kts at times. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for zone PZZ273. As the thermal trough strengthens over the coast, these winds are expected to spread north along the northern Oregon and southern Washington coastal waters late Tuesday into Wednesday night, with gusts up to 30 kts possible at times. Strongest winds are expected to ebb and flow diurnally, strongest in the late afternoon to overnight hours, backing off in the morning hours. Seas are expected to persist around 6 to 8 ft around 10 seconds through the middle of the week. -HEC

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for ORZ104>109-113>119-121-123>125.

WA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for WAZ203>205-208.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ273.