Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Naselle, WA
March 29, 2024 4:31 AM PDT (11:31 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:56 AM Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 11:58 PM Moonset 7:36 AM |
PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 250 Am Pdt Fri Mar 29 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am pdt this morning - .
In the main channel -
General seas - 10 to 13 ft subsiding to 5 ft Saturday morning.
First ebb - Ebb current of 5.2 kt at 734 am Friday. Seas 10 to 13ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 3.03 kt at 754 pm Friday. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 5.04 kt at 813 am Saturday. Seas 5 ft.
PZZ200 250 Am Pdt Fri Mar 29 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - An area of low pressure off the coast continues to weaken and shift southward today with winds and seas gradually improving. A more summer-like northerly wind pattern develops tonight into the weekend continuing into early next week. However, expect a more active pattern to return around Wednesday of next week.
Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 291017 AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 317 AM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
Drying out on Friday as a low pressure system offshore begins moving southward towards central California, allowing weak high pressure to build into the area. High pressure will then bring an extended period of warmer and drier weather this weekend through early next week. A mid-week frontal system will then bring a return to cool and wet weather Wednesday into Thursday.
SHORT TERM
Friday morning through Sunday night...Isolated rain showers and a few Cascade snow showers lingered over the area early Friday morning as a vertically stacked low offshore remained in place around 200 miles west of the Olympic Mountains. However, this low was beginning to retrograde westward as it interacted with another low centered around 500 miles west of Eureka, CA. Model guidance suggests this low will absorb the low west of the Olympics Friday afternoon while tracking southward towards central California. As this occurs, showers will diminish across southwest WA and northwest OR from east to west, ending along the south WA/north OR coast last (most likely between 9-11am according to the latest CAM guidance). That said, the aforementioned low moving towards the central CA coast will send some wrap around moisture towards the Oregon Cascades/foothills and Eugene-Springfield area, resulting in another period of showers Friday afternoon and evening. Locations to the north of Eugene should stay mainly dry, especially to the north of Salem where little to no rain will occur. This last round of showers to the south will diminish Friday night, setting the stage for dry weather across all of western WA and northwest OR on Saturday. With plenty of sunshine expected through the day as weak high pressure builds in, expect temperatures to moderate quite nicely in the afternoon with highs most likely in the mid 60s. However, cannot rule out highs in the upper 60s (5-10% chance, best chance across the Portland/Vancouver metro). Either way, temps will be running around 4-7 degrees above normal for this time of year, as average high temps for the end of March are in the upper 50s.
Temps look to be a couple of degrees cooler on Easter Sunday due to some degree of morning cloud cover, albeit still above normal as sunny conditions during the afternoon should allow temps to quickly rise into the lower 60s. In addition to the cloud cover Sunday morning, cannot rule out a stray sprinkle or shower as a weak upper level impulse embedded within northerly flow pushes southward across the area. NBM PoPs are <15% though, so most locations will stay completely dry.
It's also worth mentioning that areas of frost are possible Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night in the Cascade valleys, Upper Hood River Valley, Coast Range and Willapa Hills. This is due to favorable conditions for radiational cooling as light winds and mostly clear skies help temps dip into the low to mid 30s. The Willamette Valley and interior lowlands of southwest WA will likely be a bit too warm for frost, aside from outlying rural areas and typical cool spots such as Hillsboro, Battle Ground, and Corvallis.
These locations have a higher chance of falling to 35F or colder at 20-50%. Will hold off on issuing frost/freeze headlines as the growing season is not in full swing quite yet; we typically wait until the beginning of April to begin issuing frost/freeze headlines when conditions warrant. However, anyone living in the aforementioned zones with sensitive outdoor vegetation should bring their plants inside or take other measures to protect your plants from frost if possible. -TK
LONG TERM
Monday through Thursday night...The beginning of April still looks to start off dry with warmer than normal temps. The grand ensemble mean shows a southwest-northeast oriented ridge axis moving over the Pacific Northwest on Monday before shifting east of the Cascades on Tuesday. Models and their ensembles are generally showing high temps running anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Model spread for high temps via the NBM 1D Viewer ranges from the mid 60s to lower 70s on Monday and mid 60s to mid 70s on Tuesday. If a full day of sun were to occur, then observed temps would likely end up close to the high end of that range, as is often the case this time of year due to bias corrections applied to the NBM. Typically, these bias corrections improve the deterministic temperature forecast.
However, that is not always the case, mainly during the spring months when temps are quickly warming following a cooler weather pattern, or in the fall when temps first begin to get chilly. However, decided not to nudge towards the NBM 90th percentile as confidence is not high regarding the cloud cover forecast. Models suggest low-level onshore flow will be in place, but differ a bit on the exact strength. Depending on the strength of onshore flow, inland morning cloud cover will be a possibility, which would limit high temps from reaching the NBM 90th percentile despite afternoon sun. Right now, the NBM and GFS soundings suggest some marine stratus will attempt pushing inland overnight, which would tend to keep highs closer to the deterministic NBM based on previous experience. Nevertheless, even the deterministic NBM is rather warm for this time of year with inland highs in the mid 60s on Monday and around 70F on Tuesday.
Forecast highs are in the upper 50s to lower 60s at the coast where conditions will be cloudier with light onshore winds.
Confidence remains high for relatively cooler and wetter conditions Wednesday into Thursday as the next Pacific frontal system moves inland. Nearly every single ensemble member from the GEFS, EPS, and CMC show at least some QPF with this system, but differ on the exact timing. These timing differences help explain why NBM 6-hr PoPs only peak between 50-75% instead of 80-90% or higher. Exact rain amounts with this system are also uncertain; the probability of at least 0.25" QPF in a 24-hr period peaks Wednesday night/Thursday morning at 20-30%, except 30-50% along and near the coast and in the Cascades.
Snow levels look to fall to 1500-2000 feet behind this system in the wake of a cold frontal passage, resulting in post-frontal valley rain showers and mountain snow showers on Thursday. There is around a 10% chance snow levels briefly fall as low as 500 feet Thursday morning, but would not expect accumulation to occur give the showery nature of the precip, relatively warm ground temps and above freezing surface temps. -TK
AVIATION
All sites are reporting VFR conditions early this morning and while high resolution guidance continues to favor a 15-30% chance for MVFR conditions(sub-3kft cigs) until around 15-18z today, weakening showers slowly retrograding north- northwestward will keep this threat minimal, especially at inland terminals. Otherwise, confidence is high VFR cigs/vis persist through the rest of the period as a ridge of high pressure begins to build into the Pacific Northwest tonight into Saturday. As a result of this pattern change expect a northerly wind switch this afternoon into Saturday morning as well.
* Note: The observations out of KONP are generally limited to wind and pressure at this time. Periodically cloud cover, vis, and present wx are reported but are unreliable.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions are heavily favored through the TAF period as showers continue to shift out of the vicinity of the terminal. Expect winds around 5 to 10 knots out of east- southeast to continue into the midday hours before switching more northerly by this evening. /Schuldt
MARINE
The upper-level low pressure system responsible for our active and unsettled conditions the last several days will continue to rapidly weaken and shift southward today resulting in slowly decreasing winds and seas. Expect seas around 12 to 15 feet this morning subsiding to 8 to 11 feet by this afternoon – winds follow a similar trend as well. Tonight through the weekend models continue to show excellent agreement in the development of a more summer-like weather pattern as a positively tiled ridge of high pressure moves over the Pacific Northwest. Northerly winds increase then persist across the waters during this period with high confidence(70-90%) in northerly gusts reaching into the 20 to 30 knot range tonight through early Sunday before lightening to 10 to 20 knots Monday and Tuesday. Looking ahead, models suggest the return of a more active weather pattern late Tuesday and Wednesday, although there remains continued uncertainty as to the exact timing and impacts. That said, it does appear the probability for gale force winds stay rather low with the first disturbance Wednesday and Thursday – there’s only a 5-10% chance to meet or exceed 33 knot gusts across the outer waters. /Schuldt
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ251>253- 271>273.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 317 AM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
Drying out on Friday as a low pressure system offshore begins moving southward towards central California, allowing weak high pressure to build into the area. High pressure will then bring an extended period of warmer and drier weather this weekend through early next week. A mid-week frontal system will then bring a return to cool and wet weather Wednesday into Thursday.
SHORT TERM
Friday morning through Sunday night...Isolated rain showers and a few Cascade snow showers lingered over the area early Friday morning as a vertically stacked low offshore remained in place around 200 miles west of the Olympic Mountains. However, this low was beginning to retrograde westward as it interacted with another low centered around 500 miles west of Eureka, CA. Model guidance suggests this low will absorb the low west of the Olympics Friday afternoon while tracking southward towards central California. As this occurs, showers will diminish across southwest WA and northwest OR from east to west, ending along the south WA/north OR coast last (most likely between 9-11am according to the latest CAM guidance). That said, the aforementioned low moving towards the central CA coast will send some wrap around moisture towards the Oregon Cascades/foothills and Eugene-Springfield area, resulting in another period of showers Friday afternoon and evening. Locations to the north of Eugene should stay mainly dry, especially to the north of Salem where little to no rain will occur. This last round of showers to the south will diminish Friday night, setting the stage for dry weather across all of western WA and northwest OR on Saturday. With plenty of sunshine expected through the day as weak high pressure builds in, expect temperatures to moderate quite nicely in the afternoon with highs most likely in the mid 60s. However, cannot rule out highs in the upper 60s (5-10% chance, best chance across the Portland/Vancouver metro). Either way, temps will be running around 4-7 degrees above normal for this time of year, as average high temps for the end of March are in the upper 50s.
Temps look to be a couple of degrees cooler on Easter Sunday due to some degree of morning cloud cover, albeit still above normal as sunny conditions during the afternoon should allow temps to quickly rise into the lower 60s. In addition to the cloud cover Sunday morning, cannot rule out a stray sprinkle or shower as a weak upper level impulse embedded within northerly flow pushes southward across the area. NBM PoPs are <15% though, so most locations will stay completely dry.
It's also worth mentioning that areas of frost are possible Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night in the Cascade valleys, Upper Hood River Valley, Coast Range and Willapa Hills. This is due to favorable conditions for radiational cooling as light winds and mostly clear skies help temps dip into the low to mid 30s. The Willamette Valley and interior lowlands of southwest WA will likely be a bit too warm for frost, aside from outlying rural areas and typical cool spots such as Hillsboro, Battle Ground, and Corvallis.
These locations have a higher chance of falling to 35F or colder at 20-50%. Will hold off on issuing frost/freeze headlines as the growing season is not in full swing quite yet; we typically wait until the beginning of April to begin issuing frost/freeze headlines when conditions warrant. However, anyone living in the aforementioned zones with sensitive outdoor vegetation should bring their plants inside or take other measures to protect your plants from frost if possible. -TK
LONG TERM
Monday through Thursday night...The beginning of April still looks to start off dry with warmer than normal temps. The grand ensemble mean shows a southwest-northeast oriented ridge axis moving over the Pacific Northwest on Monday before shifting east of the Cascades on Tuesday. Models and their ensembles are generally showing high temps running anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Model spread for high temps via the NBM 1D Viewer ranges from the mid 60s to lower 70s on Monday and mid 60s to mid 70s on Tuesday. If a full day of sun were to occur, then observed temps would likely end up close to the high end of that range, as is often the case this time of year due to bias corrections applied to the NBM. Typically, these bias corrections improve the deterministic temperature forecast.
However, that is not always the case, mainly during the spring months when temps are quickly warming following a cooler weather pattern, or in the fall when temps first begin to get chilly. However, decided not to nudge towards the NBM 90th percentile as confidence is not high regarding the cloud cover forecast. Models suggest low-level onshore flow will be in place, but differ a bit on the exact strength. Depending on the strength of onshore flow, inland morning cloud cover will be a possibility, which would limit high temps from reaching the NBM 90th percentile despite afternoon sun. Right now, the NBM and GFS soundings suggest some marine stratus will attempt pushing inland overnight, which would tend to keep highs closer to the deterministic NBM based on previous experience. Nevertheless, even the deterministic NBM is rather warm for this time of year with inland highs in the mid 60s on Monday and around 70F on Tuesday.
Forecast highs are in the upper 50s to lower 60s at the coast where conditions will be cloudier with light onshore winds.
Confidence remains high for relatively cooler and wetter conditions Wednesday into Thursday as the next Pacific frontal system moves inland. Nearly every single ensemble member from the GEFS, EPS, and CMC show at least some QPF with this system, but differ on the exact timing. These timing differences help explain why NBM 6-hr PoPs only peak between 50-75% instead of 80-90% or higher. Exact rain amounts with this system are also uncertain; the probability of at least 0.25" QPF in a 24-hr period peaks Wednesday night/Thursday morning at 20-30%, except 30-50% along and near the coast and in the Cascades.
Snow levels look to fall to 1500-2000 feet behind this system in the wake of a cold frontal passage, resulting in post-frontal valley rain showers and mountain snow showers on Thursday. There is around a 10% chance snow levels briefly fall as low as 500 feet Thursday morning, but would not expect accumulation to occur give the showery nature of the precip, relatively warm ground temps and above freezing surface temps. -TK
AVIATION
All sites are reporting VFR conditions early this morning and while high resolution guidance continues to favor a 15-30% chance for MVFR conditions(sub-3kft cigs) until around 15-18z today, weakening showers slowly retrograding north- northwestward will keep this threat minimal, especially at inland terminals. Otherwise, confidence is high VFR cigs/vis persist through the rest of the period as a ridge of high pressure begins to build into the Pacific Northwest tonight into Saturday. As a result of this pattern change expect a northerly wind switch this afternoon into Saturday morning as well.
* Note: The observations out of KONP are generally limited to wind and pressure at this time. Periodically cloud cover, vis, and present wx are reported but are unreliable.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions are heavily favored through the TAF period as showers continue to shift out of the vicinity of the terminal. Expect winds around 5 to 10 knots out of east- southeast to continue into the midday hours before switching more northerly by this evening. /Schuldt
MARINE
The upper-level low pressure system responsible for our active and unsettled conditions the last several days will continue to rapidly weaken and shift southward today resulting in slowly decreasing winds and seas. Expect seas around 12 to 15 feet this morning subsiding to 8 to 11 feet by this afternoon – winds follow a similar trend as well. Tonight through the weekend models continue to show excellent agreement in the development of a more summer-like weather pattern as a positively tiled ridge of high pressure moves over the Pacific Northwest. Northerly winds increase then persist across the waters during this period with high confidence(70-90%) in northerly gusts reaching into the 20 to 30 knot range tonight through early Sunday before lightening to 10 to 20 knots Monday and Tuesday. Looking ahead, models suggest the return of a more active weather pattern late Tuesday and Wednesday, although there remains continued uncertainty as to the exact timing and impacts. That said, it does appear the probability for gale force winds stay rather low with the first disturbance Wednesday and Thursday – there’s only a 5-10% chance to meet or exceed 33 knot gusts across the outer waters. /Schuldt
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ251>253- 271>273.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 | 19 mi | 65 min | 52°F | 12 ft | ||||
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA | 23 mi | 43 min | SSE 9.9G | 45°F | 52°F | 29.86 | ||
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA | 38 mi | 55 min | SE 7G | 43°F | 52°F | 29.82 | ||
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) | 39 mi | 35 min | 51°F | 10 ft | ||||
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) | 46 mi | 35 min | 52°F | 13 ft |
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No data
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KAST ASTORIA RGNL,OR | 16 sm | 36 min | SE 05 | 8 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 45°F | 41°F | 87% | 29.83 |
Tide / Current for Naselle River, 4 miles above swing bridge, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Naselle River
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:38 AM PDT 11.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM PDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:36 AM PDT Moonset
Fri -- 11:39 AM PDT 0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:00 PM PDT 8.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:41 PM PDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:20 PM PDT 3.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:38 AM PDT 11.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM PDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:36 AM PDT Moonset
Fri -- 11:39 AM PDT 0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:00 PM PDT 8.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:41 PM PDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:20 PM PDT 3.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Naselle River, 4 miles above swing bridge, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet
12 am |
4 |
1 am |
6.1 |
2 am |
8.4 |
3 am |
10 |
4 am |
10.9 |
5 am |
11 |
6 am |
10.3 |
7 am |
8.6 |
8 am |
6.3 |
9 am |
3.8 |
10 am |
1.9 |
11 am |
0.7 |
12 pm |
0.5 |
1 pm |
1.7 |
2 pm |
3.8 |
3 pm |
5.8 |
4 pm |
7.4 |
5 pm |
8.5 |
6 pm |
8.9 |
7 pm |
8.5 |
8 pm |
7.2 |
9 pm |
5.6 |
10 pm |
4.3 |
11 pm |
3.7 |
Paradise Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:29 AM PDT 10.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM PDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:36 AM PDT Moonset
Fri -- 11:18 AM PDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:51 PM PDT 8.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:41 PM PDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:59 PM PDT 3.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:29 AM PDT 10.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM PDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:36 AM PDT Moonset
Fri -- 11:18 AM PDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:51 PM PDT 8.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:41 PM PDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:59 PM PDT 3.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Paradise Point, Long Island, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet
12 am |
4.3 |
1 am |
6.4 |
2 am |
8.4 |
3 am |
9.8 |
4 am |
10.5 |
5 am |
10.5 |
6 am |
9.5 |
7 am |
7.7 |
8 am |
5.4 |
9 am |
3.1 |
10 am |
1.4 |
11 am |
0.5 |
12 pm |
0.7 |
1 pm |
2.2 |
2 pm |
4.2 |
3 pm |
6 |
4 pm |
7.3 |
5 pm |
8.2 |
6 pm |
8.5 |
7 pm |
7.9 |
8 pm |
6.5 |
9 pm |
5 |
10 pm |
3.9 |
11 pm |
3.5 |
Portland, OR,
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