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LSZ249 Expires:202310052329;;563699 Fzus73 Kmqt 052319 Mwsmqt
marine weather statement national weather service marquette mi 719 pm edt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz248-249-266-052329- /o.can.kmqt.ma.w.0066.000000t0000z-231006t0000z/ 719 pm edt Thu oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled...
the affected areas were... Huron islands to marquette mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Marquette to munising mi...
the Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat...lon 4677 8728 4691 8674 4647 8712 4645 8727 time...mot...loc 2318z 252deg 17kt 4685 8696 4666 8713

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 100818 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 318 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SHORT TERM
(Through today)
Issued at 317 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2023

Key Messages:

- NW flow lake effect snow showers linger thru today, mainly into areas east of Marquette, but snow accumulations will only be 1 to 3 inches.
- Cooler today, but temperatures just falling back to around normal for this time of year.

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show yesterday's shortwave that produced rain over much of Upper MI has raced nne to e of James Bay.
A second shortwave is currently moving e across northern Lwr MI.
This wave generated the second round of rain/snow that moved into Upper MI and then changed to just snow. With the wave shifting away from the fcst area, deeper moisture is beginning to depart, resulting in a sharp weakening of pcpn into western Upper MI recently. This drying has also been sufficient across portions of western Upper MI to remove ice nucleation aloft, resulting in -fzdz for a time in the Houghton area per KCMX ob and webcams in Houghton.
Other MDOT webcams over the w and the KIWD ob indicate -fzdz is also occurring at times. Temps are currently in the mid 20s to lwr 30s F.

Models show 850mb temps holding generally in the -9 to -11C range today, sufficient for LES with Lake Superior sfc water temps averaging 5 to 6C. However, deeper moisture will continue to exit from w to e thru this morning, and inversions are expected to fall to 3-5kft w and generally 5-6kft e. The DGZ will be above the inversion w and mostly above the lake induced convective layer e, resulting in lower SLRs, likely on the order of 10-15 to 1. Put it all together, and LES will be on the light side. Given the poor LES parameters w, -shsn will mostly end over western Upper MI by aftn.
There may yet be some more spotty -fzdz early, but with snow already on the roads, the impact of any -fzdz on travel conditions will be minimal. To the e, expect nmrs -shsn e this morning to become scattered early this aftn. Snow accumulations will be on the order 1 to 3 inches from 08z to early evening. High temperatures today will be mostly in the upper 20s to lwr 30s F.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2023

Key messages:

- Next shortwave/cold front brings gusty west winds especially to Lake Superior/Keweenaw late Monday night/Tuesday.
- Another gusty wind day is expected Thursday.
- Other than near normal temperatures Sunday and Tuesday, above normal temperatures will continue through the upcoming week with 15- 25 degrees temperature departures above normal Thursday into next weekend.
-No widespread, significant system snowfalls across Upper MI over the next 10 days.

Any remaining light LES will diminish over the eastern areas Sunday evening. Min temps will range from the mid to upper teens over the interior west half to the lower 20s elsewhere.

Ridging overhead on Monday will yield a tranquil December day with highs expected in the lower 30s under partly sunny skies. The next shortwave will dive southeast through south central Canada into northern Ontario and Upper MI later Monday night. WAA/isentropic ascent ahead of this wave should lead to some light snow developing across the north and east Mon evening/night, followed by west northwest flow lake effect for Tuesday as 850mb temps drop to around -16C. The dry air mass moving in behind the front and quick moving nature of the trough will keep lake effect snow accumulations in check, mostly in the 1-4 inch range...highest east. The tight pressure gradient accompanying the front will lead to gusty west winds of 30 mph across much of the area and perhaps as high as 40 mph over the Keweenaw. These gusty west winds will make the fcst mid 20s to lower 30s high temps feel even chillier...especially given how mild its been so far this early winter.

Anomalously strong ridging returns mid to late next week with a fcst +300m 500 mb height anomaly and +25C 850 mb temp anomaly setting up over the Upper Great Lakes signaling a significant warming trend.
The ECMWF EFI also suggests the potential for anomalously warm max temps. Not out of the question that record highs for Thursday near 50F could be threatened, especially if there is any sunshine. In addition, tightening pressure gradient on norther side of ridging over the OH Valley and strong warm advection will produce gusty west/southwest winds on Thursday. 92H winds are in the 50-60 knot range, so mixing will determine how gusty winds actually get.

Some modest cooling will occur by early next weekend but temperatures will remain above normal, with a more substantial very brief cool down around the 18th.

The prospect of a green Christmas for a significant portion of the U.P. is a distinct possibility.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1158 PM EST SAT DEC 9 2023

MVFR/IFR flight restrictions can be expected at all TAF sites through daybreak. Fluctuation between these 2 flight categories will be most prevalent through daybreak as visibilities change with snowfall intensity. At this point, all TAF sites have transitioned from rain to snow. All of this is in association with a mid-level low quickly following behind an earlier surface low that has since exited the region. Expect conditions to become predominantly MVFR around daybreak at CMX and SAW and even earlier at IWD as snow tapers off. Also, winds have become strong out of the northwest with sustained speeds in the 12 to 15 kt range, gusting to 24 kts.

MARINE
(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 311 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2023

Outside of a few remaining gale force gusts over the eastern Lake early this morning, winds will diminish this afternoon through Monday morning. Winds will ramp up again Monday afternoon/evening ahead of and then behind another cold front. Westerly wind gale force gusts perhaps as high as 40kts will be possible from late Monday evening through Tuesday. After a lull on Wednesday, expect another gale on Thursday with winds up to 40 knots from the southwest over much of the Lake. Winds will diminish below 25 knots by Friday through most of next weekend.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for MIZ001>004.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for MIZ009.

Lake Superior...
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for LSZ162.

Gale Warning until 5 AM EST early this morning for LSZ244-245- 264.

Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ248-249-265-266.

Gale Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for LSZ263.

Gale Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for LSZ264.

Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for LSZ265.

Gale Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night for LSZ266.

Gale Watch from late Monday night through Wednesday morning for LSZ267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

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