Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 11:14 PM   Moonset 6:28 AM

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LSZ322 /o.exp.kapx.ma.w.0003.000000t0000z-240423t1915z/ 312 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
.the special marine warning will expire at 315 pm edt - .
the affected areas were - . St. Marys river point iroquois to e. Potagannissing bay - .
the Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
&&
lat - .lon 4652 8417 4653 8413 4650 8411 4644 8414 4637 8414 4633 8411 4629 8412 4628 8424 4635 8425 4645 8431 4649 8428 4650 8425 4654 8420 time - .mot - .loc 1912z 281deg 18kt 4639 8377 4632 8443

LSZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 261848 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 248 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

-- Elevated fire danger early this evening.

-- Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms return tonight.

-- Low but non-zero chance for severe thunderstorms Saturday evening into the overnight, particularly across northwest lower Michigan.

-- Shower and thunderstorm potential at times Sunday into Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Pattern synopsis:

The larger CONUS pattern has ridging in the east and troffing in the west, with numerous individual impulses rotating through the base of the trof over the Four Corners region and ejecting out into the Plains and eventually the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure over southern Nebraska will move to northern Wisconsin by Saturday morning. A warm front extending from the low will lift through northern Michigan on Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Elevated fire danger continues through sunset with low relative humidities and gusty surface winds. Rain chances begin this evening over southwest parts of the CWA, increasing in coverage as it spreads northeast through the rest of northern lower and eastern upper overnight. This convection will be mostly showers, but isolated embedded thunder is possible. The last several model runs have implied a break in the precipitation Saturday morning, but latest runs are not so clear on this point. What is clear is that once the warm front passes, temperatures will rise sharply. Highs on Saturday will be mainly in the low to mid 70s across northern lower, with the potential for some overachieving sites to make a run at the upper 70s. Highs will be generally in the 60s across eastern upper.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Decaying area of low pressure set to pass into the upper Great Lakes with time Saturday night, with attendant surface cold frontal boundary orienting itself parallel to a WSW to ENE shear vector, which will slow its south and eastward progression, and eventually stall over Michigan later Saturday night. This will bring about a window of shower and storm chances Saturday evening into the early overnight hours across portions of northern lower Michigan, with a non-zero severe risk to accompany it. Looking ahead, additional shortwave impulses are set to pass through the region Sunday into Monday, riding the stalled frontal boundary until more of a split flow regime builds and the baroclinic zone driving the convective outbursts upstream of us becomes disheveled. Surface high pressure builds in for Tuesday before another wave works into the region closer to midweek, bringing a return of rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Saturday Night Severe Potential: At this time yesterday, an uncertainty riddled forecast offered myriad of solutions across the Northwoods as to how things evolved, ranging from minimal impact to higher end impacts. Can begin to say with a little better confidence that the forecast trend is leaning more toward the lower end of impacts across the region. Unfavorable timing and an overall lack of appreciable instability will likely be detrimental to any well organized convection materializing across the region. Moisture transport from the southwest likely fails to become rich enough to juice things up to the point of overpowering a capping inversion aloft, and thus suppressing deeper convective development. That's not to say things couldn't materialize without a stout forcing mechanism. In this case, the surface low and associated frontal boundary will be in a deteriorating state as it progresses toward northern Michigan. In addition, better instability and moisture looks to hold to our south and west where better synoptic support also lies. As of now, parameters for instability are still enough to potentially generate some storms, mainly over NW lower Michigan where slightly better surface dewpoints should be able to drive higher CAPE as the front advances, but latest CAMs are very bear-ish on initiating anything deeper and organized. At this juncture, best storm chances favor north and west of a Houghton Lake to Alpena line, with particular focus on the Grand Traverse Bay region south to Cadillac and Manistee. Any storms that do fire and become slightly more organized could be on the stronger to low-end severe levels, with primary hazards being large hail and perhaps some gustier winds, especially if any bowing segments manage to materialize materialize in an environment featuring 200+ SRH and 40+kts of bulk shear parallel to the boundary. In addition, lower storm coverage suggests that heavy rain potential will be highly localized into locales that actually manage to bag a storm, with training convection trending less likely.

Rest of the Period: Stalled frontal boundary will remain lazily draped over the Great Lakes State to close out the weekend. The front begins to be forced back northward as another low pressure center over the Plains advances north and east into Minnesota, bringing back rain chances later Sunday into Sunday night. Much like the previous system, this are of low pressure will become weaker and more disheveled as it pivots eastward toward the upper Great Lakes region, and will feature even worse timing for convective development, so severe potential is likely not on the cards at this time.



AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
VFR cigs/vsbys will continue through the evening. As the first of several disturbances approaches northern Michigan terminals, scattered showers will develop over the southwest late in the evening, then become more numerous and overspread the region overnight into Saturday morning. This will bring MVFR cigs/vsbys to the region, with IFR cigs around daybreak further north.
Isolated thunder is possible with these showers, but probabilities are too low to mention in the TAFs. Conditions will improve later Saturday morning, but another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected just beyond the end of this aviation period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ346-347.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ341-342.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.

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