Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sault Ste. Marie, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 260307 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1007 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1007 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Low pressure center continues to slowly exit eastward out of Lake Huron and away from Michigan late this evening. Deep cyclonic flow and ample moisture on the backside of this system continues to produce areas of light snow . which is in the process of mixing with some light drizzle/freezing drizzle as mid level moisture begins to diminish. Areal coverage of precip increased for a few hours this evening . mainly across NE Lower Michigan . in response to a spoke of energy and surface trough/reflection pivoted around the low and thru that region. Coverage and intensity of precip has steadily diminished over the past hour or so as this feature exits east with the parent low. Another weak trough will swing thru our CWA overnight . likely producing another uptick in POPs but this time across western sections of our CWA Overall. expect chances of light snow/drizzle/freezing drizzle will continue overnight . as will low stratus and areas of fog. Temps will only cool a few degrees overnight . with low temps mainly in the lower 30s. Some slippery spots may develop on wet surfaces as temps drop to freezing overnight.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 314 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

. Light wintry mix of precipitation tonight .

High impact weather potential: Nothing too significant tonight . although may see a glaze of ice accumulation in periods of freezing drizzle.

Pattern synopsis: Upper level low pressure continues to make slow northeast progress across southeast lower Michigan this afternoon . with its attendant and much less impressive surface reflection located vicinity Sault Ste Marie. Deeper moisture rotating back west on north side of upper level low is kicking off a fairly widespread area of drizzle and light rain, even mixed with snow at times, across the southeast third of our area. Otherwise, a saturated sub H8 layer below relatively dry mid levels is resulting in pockets of mist and drizzle across the remainder of the region. With all advection processes non-existent, temperatures have gone much of nowhere in the last 24 hours or so, with current readings still running in the mid and upper 30s.

Southeast Michigan upper low reaches vicinity central Lake Ontario by sunrise Sunday as its surface reflection slowly deepens on its journey into southwest Quebec. Decaying "wrap-around" Atlantic moisture plume and development of weak cold air advection will continue to result in a light wintry mix of precipitation tonight (into Sunday as well) across the Northwoods.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing light wintry precipitation and attendant hazardous driving potential.

Details: Not expecting a whole lot to change heading through this evening with plenty of low clouds and areas of drizzle/light snow continuing with passing areas of deeper moisture. Development of weak cold air advection and return of somewhat better moisture through the column should theoretically support more bonafide precipitation chances later tonight (turning more to snow . with minimal accumulations). Per hi-res guidance soundings, still definitely have some concern for loss of ice nucleation at times, at least continuing the threat for drizzle. Temperatures expected to drop near to a bit below freezing by later tonight across most areas, raising concern for patchy freezing drizzle and some attendant hazardous driving conditions. Not overly confident on the exact details or amount of ice accretion . but definitely enough of a concern to warrant a mention in our latest hazardous weather products.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 314 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Lake effect snow Sunday, possible drizzle mixed in .

Pattern Synopsis:

The period begins with the vertically stacked system currently overhead departing the Great Lakes into Quebec. A subtle shortwave/speed max could rotate around the upper-level low into the area on Sunday. Weak, somewhat transient ridging enters Monday ahead of a second shortwave moving across northern Michigan Monday night. At the surface, high pressure across central Canada builds into the Great Plains on Monday. This will help create NW surface flow across the area between the two systems.

Forecast/Details:

Sunday: Ongoing precipitation is expected Sunday morning across much of the area with wrap around moisture from the system centered to the east. This will likely be falling as snow with some drizzle mixed in. With mainly NW/WNW flow expected on the backside of the cyclone, this precipitation will likely see some lake enhancement with the fetch across Lake Superior/Lake Michigan and potentially transition fully to lake effect precipitation by Sunday afternoon. Ascent aloft could provide additional support with the previously mentioned shortwave moving across Michigan during the day.

Forecast soundings show inversion heights of the saturated near- surface layer just short of 850mb/1km at -8 C. However, the profile is saturated well past this up to 3km with the aforementioned synoptic help, along with a portion of this layer being colder than - 10 C. This could allow ice crystals formed above the inversion to help seed snow production near the surface to fuel lake effect snow. Large flakes/dendrites aren't particularly favored as forcing largely rests outside of the DGZ, but warmer temps near the surface could allow for more aggregation of flakes. Additionally, drizzle/freezing drizzle is possible at times where more marginal moisture lies. Nonetheless, an area of near 3" of snowfall is possible across NW lower with more widespread lighter amounts elsewhere. More northerly winds come Sunday night, shifting the focus of potential lake effect precipitation. Favorable moisture and subsidence aloft also departs as ridging moves in, likely ending snow/drizzle/freezing drizzle Sunday overnight.

Monday night: The majority of Monday appears quiet as near-surface moisture is at a premium. However, sufficient moisture to support additional lake effect snow/freezing drizzle chances arrives by Monday night. Water temperatures across northern Lake Michigan are anticipated to remain near 5 C into the beginning of the week at the least, which will help instability/forcing. Winds are expected to be relatively weak, but uniform from the NW and should remain long enough to induce lake effect snow/freezing drizzle.

Otherwise, above normal temperatures are expected to continue into next week. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday are expected to be near freezing with slightly higher numbers closer to the lakes. overnight lows will be in the low to mid 20s for most.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 314 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

A mostly quiet work week is expected across the area as no major systems are anticipated to impact the Great Lakes. A subtle shortwave looks move overhead Tuesday, aiding northwest flow to continue aforementioned lake effect snow into the day given ample moisture is in place. Some freezing drizzle could be possible if cloud ice struggles to form. Otherwise, surface high pressure sets in across a fairly large swath of the continent from central Canada/Hudson Bay down into the Great Plains/mid-Mississippi Valley through a large portion of the forecast period. Chances for precipitation later in the week will become more clear with time, but this surface pattern should largely mute rain/snow chances. Little change is expected in temperatures across northern Michigan during the period as highs hover around the freezing mark heading into the following weekend, which is about 5 degrees above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 617 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Low pressure currently centered over Lake Huron will continue to slowly push eastward away from Michigan thru Sunday. Ample moisture and deep cyclonic flow on the backside of this low will maintain a solid IFR overcast across Northern Lower Michigan thru Sunday night. Overall vsbys will remain MVFR/IFR thru this period as well thanks to widespread fog Waves of light mixed precip. will also continue to impact our region thru Sunday. Winds will become W/NW AOB 10 kts tonight . and then strength to 10 to 20 kts on Sunday.

MARINE. Issued at 314 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Light winds into this evening will increasing in speed overnight as they become northwest behind departing low pressure. Northwest winds, at times gusty, will continue through Sunday . slowly diminishing Sunday night. Small craft advisory conditions expected later tonight into Sunday for at least some of our nearshore waters.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 AM to 11 PM EST Sunday for LHZ347- 348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 AM to 11 PM EST Sunday for LMZ323- 342-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . MR MARINE . mb

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI	2 mi	57 min	Calm G 1	33°F			1006.1 hPa	33°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI	4 mi	57 min	WSW 6 G 7
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI	13 mi	57 min	W 1.9 G 4.1
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI	15 mi	57 min	Calm G 1.9
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI	17 mi	57 min	W 4.1 G 7
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI	39 mi	57 min	E 1.9 G 1.9	32°F	34°F		1005.4 hPa	32°F
WFPM4 - Whitefish Point, MI	40 mi	47 min	WNW 1 G 2.9	34°F			1005.4 hPa

Wind History for Little Rapids, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sault Ste. Marie, MI	3 mi	32 min	W 4	0.50 mi	Fog	34°F	33°F	97%	1006.2 hPa
Sault Ste Marie, Chippewa County International Airport, MI	16 mi	31 min	W 4	0.25 mi	Fog	33°F	33°F	100%	1006.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KANJ

Wind History from ANJ (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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