Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sault Ste. Marie, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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Fxus63 kapx 150030 afdapx area forecast discussion national weather service gaylord mi 830 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019 Near term (through tonight) issued at 239 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019 Lake effect winding down... high impact weather potential: none. Pattern synopsis forecast: vertically stacked low pressure has migrated into james bay this afternoon with cyclonic flow and pocket of cold air across the region finally loosing it's grip on the northern great lakes region. But sufficient over water instability (16c to 20c delta t's), moisture flux off the lakes and daytime "heating" continues to produce loosely banded to cellular lake clouds and showers across the region with the focus now through the tip of the mitt m-32 corridor. Mostly rain at this point, although here at the office we are still getting some mixed rain snow showers at times, within the heaviest convective cells. Deep cyclonic flow will continue to lose it's grip tonight as short-wave ridging begins to build into the region. Low level (850 mb) temps further modify to a few degrees below 0c this evening and go above 0c for most of the northern lakes region by Tuesday morning. With loss of daytime heating and low level flow backing toward southwest, ongoing lake effect showers should focus more into the tip of the mitt straits region heading into the evening before eventually winding down completely. Otherwise, outside of the lake effect... We should loose a good bit of cloud cover this evening particularly across the E S parts of the forecast area. Some thicker mid and high cloud cover begins to return later during the overnight hours. But this will set the stage for temperatures dipping into the low 30s for a good part of the region. Short term (Tuesday through Thursday) issued at 239 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019 high impact weather potential: slight chance of thunderstorms across northern lower michigan Tuesday. Pattern synopsis forecast: by early Tuesday morning, vertically stacked low pressure centered across northern ontario today will have shifted well off to the northeast across quebec as attention turns to an incoming clipper system set to dive across the region Tuesday through Tuesday night. Strengthening low pressure and attendant deepening wave aloft are expected to trek overhead through this time frame before exiting east of the region by Wednesday morning. A renewed shot of cold air is expected in its wake with lake effect showers anticipated at times through at least midweek, primarily downwind of lake superior & michigan. Primary forecast concerns challenges: pops through the forecast period. By early Tuesday morning, the aforementioned clipper system is expected to be situated across west-central wi with isentropically driven showers spreading eastward across lake michigan into far western reaches of the forecast area. Forecast soundings suggest top- down moistening initially struggles across much of the region early Tuesday morning before ramping up significantly late morning midday with showers becoming likely through this time frame, most widespread across the tip of the mitt into eastern upper. By late afternoon into the evening hours, the system's cold front is expected to be sweeping west to east across northern lower as the center of low pressure treks nearly directly overhead. As was alluded to by the prior forecaster, simple dynamics of this system may allow for a few rumbles of thunder, especially across northern lower, despite a lack of instability. Given the placement of a 120+ kt jet streak, nearly 50 kts of 500 mb wind, and 60-65 knots of effective bulk shear - suppose there's an outside chance of some gusty winds mixing down to the surface in any convection and or heavier showers. Otherwise, the cold front is expected to clear the forecast area near or just after midnight with strong cold air advection to follow. Gusty northwest winds (gusts 20-30 mph) will become the rule Wednesday morning through much of the day with renewed precip chances as wrap around moisture on the back side of the departing system combines with ample lake induced instability to kick of additional precip across much of the area. Precip should gradually

transition to more natural lake effect variety by Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as synoptic moisture begins to exit stage right... Most numerous in northwest flow lake belts of eastern upper and NW lower. Wouldn't be entirely surprised to see a few more nocturnal snow flakes in the interior higher terrain, but not expecting much in the way of impact. Lake effect showers may linger into Thursday morning, although warming low levels and depleted background synoptic moisture will certainly hinder the organization and frequency of showers before warm air advection takes over in full force Thursday afternoon ending all precip chances across northern michigan. High temperatures Tuesday in the upper 40s to low 50s for most, although will likely feel 5-10 degrees cooler than that given cloudy showery breezy conditions. A couple of degrees cooler for Wednesday's highs, but again expected to feel several degrees cooler than that. High's in the low 50s Thursday with more sunshine expected to prevail area-wide late in the day as warm air advection takes over. Long term (Thursday night through Monday) issued at 239 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019 high impact weather potential: minimal. A brief reprieve from the active weather is set to return Thursday night through Friday as high pressure becomes centered across the ohio valley aiding to provide quieter sensible weather and moderating temperatures into the upcoming weekend. Latest long range trends suggest a weak mid-level wave and attendant surface boundary sliding across northern michigan Saturday, perhaps with enough support moisture to bring scattered showers back into the forecast. However, with little impact, focus turns to early next week as ensemble guidance suggests a storm system developing across the central plains before trekking northeast toward the upper mississippi valley western great lakes. While the details remain muddy and low confidence at this time, the potential returns for more wet and windy weather as early as late Sunday through early next week. Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening) issued at 800 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019 vfr aviation weather conditions will prevail across the northern mi terminals through much of the 00z TAF valid time. Clouds will increase in coverage, thicken, and lower during the day Tuesday as a clipper system pushes across the great lakes. Some rain showers are expected with the clipper as well, especially Tuesday afternoon. May see conditions degrade to MVFR during the rainfall, and especially later in the afternoon as the cold front associated with the system starts to move into the area. Marine Issued at 239 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019 gusty west to southwest winds continue into early evening before diminishing. Still a few marine locations reporting gusts and or waves near small craft criteria. But those will subside by early evening. Quieter weather for tonight. But southerly winds become establish on Tuesday and there may be another period of small craft advisory winds waves later in the morning and during the afternoon. But bigger attention turns to late Tuesday night through Wednesday as another strong storm system swings through the region. Westerly to northwesterly gale force gusts look increasing likely on lakes michigan and huron during that time, and thus plan to hoist a gale watch. Apx watches warnings advisories Mi... None. Lh... Gale watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for lhz347>349. Lm... Gale watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for lmz323-342-344>346. Ls... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lsz321. Near term... Ba short term... Mg long term... Mg aviation... Pb marine... Ba

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI	2 mi	49 min	SSW 4.1 G 5.1	40°F	55°F		1014.7 hPa	36°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI	4 mi	49 min	W 9.9 G 13	45°F	55°F		1013.5 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI	13 mi	49 min	SSW 1.9 G 2.9	37°F	56°F		1014.7 hPa	35°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI	15 mi	49 min	WSW 2.9 G 4.1		52°F		1015.1 hPa
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI	17 mi	49 min	WSW 2.9 G 5.1	41°F			1014.3 hPa
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI	39 mi	49 min	W 4.1 G 4.1	40°F	56°F		1015 hPa	36°F
WFPM4 - Whitefish Point, MI	40 mi	39 min	W 5.1 G 8	39°F			1014.6 hPa
SRLM4	48 mi	49 min	WSW 11	44°F	52°F			37°F

Wind History for Little Rapids, MI

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SW13 G29

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sault Ste. Marie, MI	3 mi	24 min	WSW 4	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	42°F	35°F	76%	1015.3 hPa
Sault Ste Marie, Chippewa County International Airport, MI	16 mi	23 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	34°F	32°F	92%	1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KANJ

Wind History from ANJ (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.