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LSZ322 Expires:202310021000;;359838 Fzus73 Kapx 020903 Mwsapx
marine weather statement national weather service gaylord mi 503 am edt Mon oct 2 2023
lsz321-322-021000- 503 am edt Mon oct 2 2023
.the st marys river system has been reopened to vessel navigation...
the united states coast guard in sault ste marie has reopened the st marys river system to navigation. The dense fog which affected the river system earlier in the day has now dissipated...allowing for safe navigation once again.
lat...lon 4653 8413 4619 8408 4606 8395 4612 8382 4612 8363 4599 8344 4593 8354 4601 8409 4602 8406 4614 8416 4613 8425 4619 8434 4631 8427 4645 8435 4640 8458 4644 8496 4652 8463 4645 8448 4651 8438 4649 8427

LSZ300
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FXUS63 KAPX 021708 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1208 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 853 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Lingering early morning snow has exited off to the east. Inherited forecast remains on track with partly to mostly sunny skies expected to prevail today. For more details, see the near-term discussion below.

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Lingering Snow Early this Morning

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

Pattern Synopsis:

A southwesterly jet currently remains draped across the Mississippi Valley and the southern Great Lakes as longwave troughing works across the Great Plains today. Weak surface low pressure will slide along the St. Lawrence River and dissipate with time into this afternoon as favorable advections have been cut off for a time. As the aforementioned trough lifts over the Mississippi Valley tonight, it will provide favorable forcing to support a second weak cyclone that will trek into the southern Great Lakes early Sunday morning.

Forecast Details:

Ongoing snow will continue across our southeast counties for the next few hours before exiting over Lake Huron by mid-morning.
Snowfall will remain light with additional accumulations expected to stay around 0.5" or less. After this snow moves out, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures look to warm into the mid 30s to low 40s south of the bridge with slightly cooler conditions anticipated across eastern upper. Lows are expected to dip back into the 20s tonight as our next round of snow chances encroach on the CWA from the south late tonight/early Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snow potential Sunday.

Pattern Synopsis: A wave ejecting into the central Plains from troughing centered over the Rockies will be inducing a subtle ridging response over Michigan. The troughing will quickly encompass the Great Lakes region as the wave and associated developing cyclone progresses eastward into the Great Lakes region late Saturday night into Sunday. The result will be the transport of deeper moisture northward through an associated corridor of theta-e advection ahead of the system. Following the passage of the system, residual wrap- around moisture should linger over northern Michigan Sunday night into Monday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Widespread accumulations (how much?)
Sunday and any lingering precip potential into Sunday night.

Ongoing surge of deeper moisture will result in precip to be developing or ongoing across the mbL to CAD corridor. Continuing the thoughts of the previous forecast cycle, looks like this precipitation shield spreads from southwest to northeast across the CWA through the morning hours, primarily in the form of snow as a 1000-1005mb surface low passes through the Toledo, OH area and into Lake Erie. Resulting guidance soundings show the dominant precipitation type largely being snow across much of the CWA, with the best dynamics and deeper moisture (and thus, the favored area of "heavier" precipitation totals) being across northern lower. Subtle low level warm layer likely leads to more rain mixing in across areas closer to Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay (namely south / east of an Alpena to Gladwin line). Guidance seems to be coming into a little bit more of an agreement on the track and strength of the system
and in terms of QPF
heaviest QPF of 0.30 - 0.50" across northern lower is expected. Given wetter SLRs (8-10 to 1 ratios), it is somewhat supportive of guidance probs of 35-45% to see 2"+ of snow across interior northern lower (sub 10% probs for 4"+). Lower totals are expected closer to the lakes owing to potential for rain mixing in... and lower totals expected the closer one get to the Bridge (and points north) owing to lesser moisture concentration.
Still not expecting anything that may meet advisory criteria, but nonetheless, sticking snowfall and the wet nature of the snow may lead to the development of slushy / sloppy road surfaces through the day Sunday across interior northern lower (of greatest concern is the US 127 / I-75 corridor from roughly Houghton Lake to Indian River).

Looking beyond the snow during the day Sunday, activity will turn less steadier and snowy as deeper moisture dwindles as the system moves east into Lake Ontario. Issues may arise as low level moisture could be slow to diminish. This may lead to a prolonged window of drizzly conditions (and perhaps some light snow) as moisture doesn't really reach into the DGZ to generate snowflakes. Could see some lingering issues from this into Sunday night and maybe even early Monday before high pressure build into the southern Great Lakes and effectively cuts moisture out of the low levels. Temps Sunday in the lower 30s across the interior and eastern Yoop; near 40 along the lakes. Lows Sunday night in the teens and 20s. Highs Monday in the low-to-mid 30s.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Another shot at accumulating snow Monday night into Tuesday.

Primary focus of the long term period will be the potential for a quick moving clipper system to pass through the upper Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday. Still a little bit of uncertainty with guidance in regard to this system, but nonetheless, the airmass looks plenty cold enough to generate a widespread accumulating snow chance across the region... the question becomes "where"? As of now, my highest confidence choice just based off pattern recognition favors areas south of the Bridge (perhaps even well south, toward Manistee / West Branch and points south) with this area of snow...
though this will have to be resolved in the coming forecasting cycles.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Primarily VFR conditions expected to continue area-wide this afternoon. However, as low pressure passes by to our south tonight into Sunday, increasing chances for MVFR and eventually IFR CIGs will be the rule from south to north tonight into Sunday morning. Snow will accompany this system, especially during the day Sunday with IFR to localized LIFR VSBY restrictions becoming likely.



MARINE
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Occasional small craft winds and waves may linger for a few more hours this morning near Saginaw Bay. Otherwise, conditions on the northern Great Lakes nearshore waters look to remain below advisory criteria into Sunday.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

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