Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sault Ste. Marie, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 070722 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 322 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 323 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

. Showers/storms today in spots .

High impact weather potential: Low. A few stronger storms possible in ne lower MI this afternoon.

Low pressure is well to our north, transiting Hudson Bay. An associated cold front drapes down across central Superior and western upper MI. Multiple clusters of showers/t-storms are occurring ahead of this front. Precip trends are the primary concern.

Presently, there are sct showers and isolated storms in eastern upper MI, on down to Beaver Isl. The most widespread activity though is further south, over Lake MI and pushing into Leelanau/ Benzie/Manistee Cos. (This is the exact opposite of what was expected 24 hours ago. Convection!) Instability is unimpressive right now, and intensification is not expected thru late morning. In fact, coverage should overall show a gradual decreasing trend this morning, as activity crosses most of northern MI.

For this afternoon, the front will be over ne lower MI, and a weak surface wave may spin up along the boundary (slowing its eastward progress). Temps will again take a run at 90f/low 90s in ne lower, even with the eventual arrival of some cloud cover. MlCape values will bubble up to almost 1k j/kg in se sections of the forecast area. Thus expect convection to become more numerous and more intense this afternoon in ne lower MI. 0-6km bulk shear values are still restrained (15-25kt), but this is more instability than we have realized the past couple of days. Locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail may be possible with stronger afternoon storms. A stray pulse svr storm is not out of the question, though an organized svr threat is not expected. (We are presently not outlooked for svr by SPC.) Another place convection could briefly fire this afternoon is in eastern upper MI, south of M-28, as a secondary trof/low-level convergence axis develops.

Max temps will be somewhat cooler today in eastern upper and nw lower MI, ranging thru the 80s. Still toasty in ne lower, near 90 to the lower 90s.

Activity could linger as late as mid-evening near Saginaw Bay, but otherwise briefly cooler, drier, and more stable air will be in place across northern MI tonight. No precip is expected. Skies will initially be mostly clear, but some patchy fog/stratus could form overnight. Min temps tonight a little cooler, upper 50s to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 323 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

. Hot and Muggy with Some Rainfall Possible .

High Impact Weather Potential . Low.

Forecast Concerns . Pops.

The ridge restrengthens again Wednesday leaving lake breezes as the sole focus for the possible development of isolated convection from mid to late afternoon (mainly across north central and northeast lower). Another trough begins to approach the region from the northwest Thursday. Slowly falling heights out ahead of that system in combination with strong daytime heating could spark a few showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening. It will remain hot and muggy with highs in the upper 80s to the mid 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 323 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

. An Eventual Break from the Extreme Heat .

High Impact Weather Potential . Low.

Another short wave arrives overnight Thursday into Friday likely resulting in a round of showers and thunderstorms. Lingering troughing over the weekend could ignite a few diurnally driven showers or storms. It will remain hot and humid through Friday then temperatures (and humidity) are expected to decrease by several degrees for the remainder of the period but still be slightly above normal.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1145 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

A cool front will slide thru Northern Lower Michigan overnight and Tuesday . providing our area with small chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time. Prevailing conditions will remain VFR overnight thru Tuesday night . but may briefly drop to MVFR within any showers or storms that develop. Light/variable winds overnight will again lend to lake breeze development on Tuesday.

MARINE. Issued at 323 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

A weak cold front will gradually cross the region today. Southwest winds ahead of the front will veer west and northwest behind it today into tonight. Winds will remain on the light side, and winds/waves will remain short of advisory criteria (in most cases, well short). Light southerly winds return for Wednesday. Southwest winds will be a bit gustier on Thursday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . MR MARINE . JZ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI	2 mi	43 min	Calm G 1.9	66°F	53°F		1012.4 hPa	65°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI	4 mi	43 min	Calm G 0	67°F	63°F		1011.6 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI	13 mi	43 min	Calm G 1	66°F	56°F		1012.1 hPa	65°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI	15 mi	43 min	Calm G 1		64°F		1012 hPa
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI	17 mi	43 min	ESE 1.9 G 2.9	67°F			1012.2 hPa	67°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI	39 mi	43 min	WSW 1.9 G 2.9	70°F	61°F		1012.2 hPa	70°F
WFPM4 - Whitefish Point, MI	40 mi	21 min	SW 2.9 G 4.1	66°F			1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Little Rapids, MI

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E2

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NE1

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sault Ste. Marie, MI	3 mi	66 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	69°F	66°F	90%	1011.9 hPa
Sault Ste Marie, Chippewa County International Airport, MI	16 mi	65 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	69°F	68°F	96%	1012.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KANJ

Wind History from ANJ (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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