Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sault Ste. Marie, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 300357 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1157 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 930 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Few changes needed to the going grungy forecast. Nearly stacked low is near the North Channel of Lake Huron, and will gradually pinwheel away from the area. Deeper moisture will depart for a period, evidenced by warmer cloud tops over upper MI and ne WI. But abundant low-level moisture and cyclonically curved flow will maintain light rain and/or drizzle, even after the stronger returns presently over northern MI diminish and move east.

Slow cold advection will arrive with developing w to nw winds behind the departing system. This may allow snow to mix in, especially if outermost f-gen band reintroduces colder cloud tops again very late tonight. This wintry mix will again be quite light.

NEAR TERM. (Through Monday) Issued at 334 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

. Showery weather into Monday .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Gusty northwesterly winds develop tonight into Monday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Stacked low pressure system is located over Green Bay as of 19Z with a pronounced short-wave circulation center sliding out of eastern Wisconsin into central Lake Michigan. Attending occluded boundary arcs across the Straits/tip of the mitt to a triple point over Georgian Bay and cold front that continues down through western Pennsylvania. Associated rainfall well ahead of the front arcs up through Quebec and Ontario and back westward to around the Duluth/western U.P. area. A second area of more widespread showery precip associated with the short-wave circulation itself has been steadily rotating across Lake Michigan into northern Lower Michigan over the last several hours.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Return of gusty winds tonight into Monday.

Stacked low pressure system will gradually fill and track across the tip of the mitt/Straits region this evening and into Canada overnight, while short-wave impulse/circulation slides across northern/central Lower Michigan. Round of fairly widespread showers associated with the short-wave circulation will obviously be sliding through the region over the next several hours, especially across northern Lower Michigan. Those will exit the region later this evening/early overnight But. we will still have one last round of wrap-around/deformation precip that will have to slide across the region overnight into Monday So. and damp night on tap overall as cooler air spreads into the region and temperatures slide back down through the 30s.

Precip-type: Generally . light rainfall is anticipated through this evening and overnight. Might get a bit mixy during the overnight hours into Monday morning with slow arrival of cooler air and temperatures beginning to flirt with the freezing mark. That said, per forecast soundings saturated layer thermal profiles are not particularly cold (mostly warmer then -10C with limited in cloud ice) and suggest that precip will remain mostly of the liquid variety. Precip may simply dwindle to a brief period of drizzle/freezing drizzle/flurries through Monday morning.

Otherwise, gusty north-northwest winds redevelop tonight as the system slides off to the east. Not strong enough to warrant any land based headlines. But we will be hoisting another lakeshore flood advisory for parts of the Lake Michigan shore from Leelanau county southward.

SHORT TERM. (Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 334 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Quite the messy large scale pattern across the midsection of the CONUS heading into midweek as this weekend's upper-level closed low continues to shift toward the Northeast, before washing out somewhat and even retrograding a bit back westward toward the Great Lakes. Another mid-level shortwave treks across the lower MS Valley into the southern Ohio Valley, with larger scale energy aloft spinning across the Pac NW into British Columbia.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Low PoP chances/drizzle? Temperature and cloud trends.

By and large, relatively tranquil conditions expected across much of the forecast area through the majority of the forecast period, although some uncertainties present themselves at various times. The primary uncertainty revolves around the low potential for a few showers and/or drizzle, especially during the day Tuesday into Tuesday night. While chances would be driven by the aforementioned system over the Northeast potentially retrograding a bit, sending spokes of deeper moisture and support aloft into parts of the forecast area, confidence is rather low in any shower activity making it to the surface given model sounding depicting quite a bit of low-level dry air/inverted-V through much of this time frame. Have opted to keep the forecast dry at this point, but again, can't entirely rule out a low chance of a few stray showers or patchy drizzle. Certainly more clouds than sun will hang on across the area Monday night through Tuesday with high temperatures topping out in the low 40s for most Tuesday afternoon.

By Wednesday, weak warm air advection takes over across the Great Lakes region, ultimately promoting more peeks of sun and moderating temperatures. Wednesday's high temps expected to range from the mid- upper 40s area-wide.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 334 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal for now, although some thunder chances may present themselves during the Friday/Saturday time frame.

Quite the overall pattern reversal depicted in long range guidance than was seen 24 hours ago, and as a result, have little confidence in any one solution at this point. Despite this uncertainty, latest trends suggest quiet conditions can be expected across northern Michigan through the end of the work week. Attention then turns toward the late Friday into Saturday time frame as energy ejects out of the Rockies with lee side cyclogenesis across the central plains before strengthening low pressure rapidly treks northeastward towards or west of the arrowhead of MN. This would potentially result in at least a brief bonafide warm up across the forecast area during the day Friday before the system's cold front comes barreling across Friday night into Saturday. If all this pans out, the potential for a period of rain and perhaps embedded thunderstorms would increase through the late week/early weekend time frame, eventually followed by another spell of cooler temperatures to wrap up the weekend. Lots of time to sort of the details, and given the lack of model consistency, would expected some chances over the next several days.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1157 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Low pressure is of Sault Ste Marie, and will continue to move east away from the region. But there is plenty of low-level moisture present in the wake of the system. Showers will continue to be prevalent overnight, perhaps transitioning to something a little more drizzly before ending Monday. Widespread IFR to LIFR cigs overnight into Monday morning. Slow improvement to MVFR will occur on Monday afternoon.

W winds will veer nw and remain gusty into Monday.

MARINE. Issued at 334 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Gusty north to northwest winds develop tonight as low pressure tracks east of the region into Canada. This will lead to small craft advisory conditions for most nearshore areas tonight through the day Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Monday for MIZ020-025- 031. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ348. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346-347. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . JZ MARINE . BA

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI	2 mi	46 min	NNE 6 G 9.9	38°F			1003.6 hPa	36°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI	4 mi	46 min	NE 2.9 G 6
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI	13 mi	46 min	NNW 1.9 G 2.9
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI	15 mi	46 min	NW 5.1 G 6				1002.6 hPa
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI	39 mi	46 min	NE 2.9 G 4.1	37°F	34°F		1002.6 hPa	37°F
WFPM4 - Whitefish Point, MI	40 mi	36 min	N 5.1 G 8	34°F			1004.1 hPa
SRLM4	48 mi	46 min		38°F	37°F			36°F

Wind History for Little Rapids, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sault Ste. Marie, MI	3 mi	21 min	NNE 6	10.00 mi	Overcast	39°F	35°F	86%	1003.9 hPa
Sault Ste Marie, Chippewa County International Airport, MI	16 mi	20 min	NNE 7	10.00 mi	Light Rain	37°F	37°F	100%	1004.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KANJ

Wind History from ANJ (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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