Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sault Ste. Marie, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 120729 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 229 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 226 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

. More significant snow for parts of the area today .

High impact weather potential: Widespread accumulating snow producing significant travel impacts, especially across the Tip of the Mitt and eastern upper Michigan.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Progressive northern stream flow continues, with steady height rises taking place overhead as deep trough responsible for shot of Arctic air is rapidly moving east into Quebec and New England. Off the deck thermal profiles have warmed considerably since this time yesterday, as evident by H8 level temperatures almost increasing by 10C. Per the usual with these dense cold airmasses, surface response to this warming is delayed, with current temperatures once again in the single digits and teens. Combination of those warming temperatures aloft and increasingly shallow convective depths has definitely disrupted the lake processes, with just shallow clouds and a few lingering flurries found across the area.

Break in our active weather sure won't last long, with water vapor imagery displaying sharp shortwave trough digging rapidly southeast across the Dakota's, with an expanding area of light to moderate snow along and just ahead of this wave. This "clipper" system will race east into and through the area later this afternoon and evening, bringing that widespread snow along with it.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Snow amounts and attendant headlines into this evening.

Details: Expect snow to rapidly spread into the area this morning, with the juxtaposition of deeper moisture and forcing from the approaching wave favoring the steadiest snows across the Tip of the Mitt counties and across eastern upper Michigan by later this morning through the afternoon. Overspreading of this deeper moisture across a still favorable over-water thermal gradient will likely ignite at least some lake response across northern Lake Michigan this morning. Hi-res guidance concurs, showing hints of at least some lake snows spreading north into the Straits and eastern upper Michigan. Not expecting this to be too big a deal given transient nature of any banding and shallow convective depths. Strong indication that a dry wedge centered just off the deck will spread northeast quickly this morning, ending the widespread snow threat across a portion of northern lower Michigan (especially south of M- 72), with chances for snow once again increasing later this afternoon as dry slot is lost (perhaps with a bit of a lake component into northwest lower Michigan). As for snowfall totals, good deep moisture and strong omega centered in an elevated/deep dendritic growth layer both support some decent totals across the north half of the area, likely ranging from 4 to 8 inches, with the greatest amounts along and north of the M-68 corridor . warranting a winter weather advisory for that area. Given that expected dry slot, expect snow totals to drop off fairly rapidly as one goes south, with likely just trace amounts down near Saginaw Bay. As for temperatures, development of south and southeast winds will definitely usher in a milder airmass, with much of the area ranging from the middle 20s to lower 30s by later this afternoon, with even slightly warmer readings in our far southwest and southeast counties.

Kinda an interesting and challenging forecast heading through tonight as forcing departs and moisture thins from top to bottom in the column. May see light snow/flurries transition freezing drizzle as ice nucleation is lost. To complicate matters, while inversion level temperatures become too warm for ice nucleation, they may be just cold enough to entice some lake moisture contribution into northwest lower Michigan . further moistening the low level environment in support for drizzle. Definitely something to monitor as we head into the evening hours. Otherwise, a downright mild night when compared to recent conditions, with temperatures remaining steady-state or even slowly rising into the 20s and lower 30s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 226 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Fairly Quiet Friday, more light Lake Effect late Saturday .

Synopsis/Forecast: Friday morning the weak clipper from Thursday will be filling in and weakening over northern Michigan. The decaying low will still influence our wind field though, as we hang on to light southerly winds. Also through the morning a subtle wave traversing the Rockies will spin up yet another weak compact low through the Central Plains before moving into the Ohio Valley. Overall, relatively little sensible weather over the area through mid-day thanks to a lack of forcing or moisture. As the fetch increases across the big lakes maybe some light flurries and/or freezing drizzle will get pushed into ern upper. Forecast soundings show little to no ice nucleation. A lot of these slight chance pops also depends on the exact position of the decaying surface low. Better snow chances slowly return Friday night as profiles saturate top down, allowing seeder-feeder processes to take over, especially in ern upper. Friday's highs are expected to be a couple degrees above normal.

Northwest flow kicks in Saturday with cold low-mid level air pouring into the region. The low pressure system crossing the Ohio Valley gets absorbed into an intensifying nor'easter. Increasing overlake instability late Saturday will bring more chances for lake effect as the day wears on. Slightly milder temperatures will continue Saturday before a return to colder conditions comes later in the weekend. Between the nor'easter and incoming high pressure, our winds will get increasingly breezy late Saturday evening and overnight.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 226 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

High Impact Weather: Minimal

Sunday into the beginning of the week bring multiple waves passing by, mainly to our north, that will each bring increased chances for lake effect. This mainly targets northwest flow belts on Sunday, then fans out some with a general decrease in likelihood as surface high pressure moves in Monday. There remains potential for a strong system to ride up through the Ohio Valley late Monday night into Tuesday. this could bring gusty winds and another round of synoptic snow, but confidence in this is very low at this point. The general pattern heading into midweek is more of the same as on the weekend: northwest flow with rounds of light lake effect possible. The extended period will run a couple degrees below normal.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1140 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Westerly flow light lake effect snow continues in the snowbelts of northern Lower Michigan, although they have weakened substantially this evening and will continue to do so overnight. MVFR lake cloud cover is still impacting the NW Lower Michigan coast but will also thin out overnight as winds back to south by morning.

But after a brief respite, more snowfall is on the way for Thursday. Low pressure over the front range of the Rockies will eject into the Midwest tonight and slide up through northern Lower Michigan Thursday. This system will spread another round of snowfall across northern Michigan with the heaviest snow anticipated north of M-32 into the U.P. Conditions will gradually trend to MVFR and possibly IFR through the day . with the worst conditions at PLN.

MARINE. Issued at 226 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Another round of gusty winds, this time from the south and southeast, will bring small craft advisory conditions for many of our nearshore waters today into this evening. Well deserved break in the recent gusty winds looks to begin later tonight, lasting into the first half of the weekend.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ016>018-086>088-095>099. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Friday for LHZ348-349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LHZ345>347. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ341-342. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . BA MARINE . mb

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI	2 mi	55 min	SW 5.1 G 8	11°F			1030.4 hPa	-3°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI	4 mi	55 min	WSW 9.9 G 12	13°F	35°F		1029.1 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI	15 mi	55 min	S 4.1 G 5.1				1030.7 hPa
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI	17 mi	55 min	SSW 4.1 G 9.9	14°F			1029.7 hPa	-2°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI	39 mi	55 min	W 4.1 G 7	15°F	37°F		1030.4 hPa	13°F
WFPM4 - Whitefish Point, MI	40 mi	63 min	W 8 G 17	11°F			1029.5 hPa
SRLM4	48 mi	133 min	SSW 18	19°F	33°F			14°F

Wind History for Little Rapids, MI

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SW5

SW8 G14

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W15 G20

W13 G19

W17 G23

W13 G19

SW13 G18

SW15

SW15 G19

W11 G18

W9 G14

SW5 G11

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W7 G15

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N7

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NE11

E11 G14

NE12 G15

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E12 G15

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NE11 G15

N9

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E14 G17

N6

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N7 G10

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NW11 G14

NW12 G16

N14 G17

N13 G17

N11 G16

NW7 G11

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sault Ste. Marie, MI	3 mi	48 min	SW 9	10.00 mi	Overcast	13°F	-2°F	51%	1031.5 hPa
Sault Ste Marie, Chippewa County International Airport, MI	16 mi	47 min	W 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	8°F	3°F	80%	1032.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KANJ

Wind History from ANJ (wind in knots)

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SW11

SW9

SW10 G18

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W13 G25

W14 G27

W14 G24

W17 G26

SW13 G25

W10 G21

SW16 G22

SW12 G20

SW11 G24

W14 G24

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SW13 G19

SW12 G21

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1 day ago

N6

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Calm

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NE8

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NE6 G15

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N9 G16

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NW9 G17

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NW11 G17

N8 G19

N8

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N9

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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