Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sault Ste. Marie, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 6:54PM Monday October 14, 2019 10:18 PM EDT (02:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:42PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ322 820 Am Edt Tue Oct 8 2019
.the st marys river system has been reopened to vessel navigation... The united states coast guard in sault ste marie has reopened the st marys river system to navigation. The dense fog which affected the river system earlier in the day has now dissipated...allowing for safe navigation once again. Lat...lon 4653 8413 4650 8411 4637 8414 4633 8411 4630 8412 4625 8430 4627 8432 4628 8430 4635 8431 4643 8436 4638 8445 4644 8451 4651 8438 4649 8427 4654 8420
LSZ322 Expires:201910081230;;392945 FZUS73 KAPX 081220 MWSAPX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Gaylord MI 820 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 LSZ322-081230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sault Ste. Marie, MI
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location: 46.46, -84.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 150030
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
830 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 239 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019

Lake effect winding down...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: vertically stacked low pressure has
migrated into james bay this afternoon with cyclonic flow and
pocket of cold air across the region finally loosing it's grip on
the northern great lakes region. But sufficient over water
instability (16c to 20c delta t's), moisture flux off the lakes
and daytime "heating" continues to produce loosely banded to
cellular lake clouds and showers across the region with the
focus now through the tip of the mitt m-32 corridor. Mostly rain
at this point, although here at the office we are still getting
some mixed rain snow showers at times, within the heaviest
convective cells.

Deep cyclonic flow will continue to lose it's grip tonight as
short-wave ridging begins to build into the region. Low level
(850 mb) temps further modify to a few degrees below 0c this
evening and go above 0c for most of the northern lakes region by
Tuesday morning. With loss of daytime heating and low level flow
backing toward southwest, ongoing lake effect showers should
focus more into the tip of the mitt straits region heading into
the evening before eventually winding down completely.

Otherwise, outside of the lake effect... We should loose a good bit
of cloud cover this evening particularly across the E S parts of
the forecast area. Some thicker mid and high cloud cover begins to
return later during the overnight hours. But this will set the
stage for temperatures dipping into the low 30s for a good part of
the region.

Short term (Tuesday through Thursday)
issued at 239 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019
high impact weather potential: slight chance of thunderstorms across
northern lower michigan Tuesday.

Pattern synopsis forecast: by early Tuesday morning, vertically
stacked low pressure centered across northern ontario today will
have shifted well off to the northeast across quebec as attention
turns to an incoming clipper system set to dive across the region
Tuesday through Tuesday night. Strengthening low pressure and
attendant deepening wave aloft are expected to trek overhead through
this time frame before exiting east of the region by Wednesday
morning. A renewed shot of cold air is expected in its wake with
lake effect showers anticipated at times through at least midweek,
primarily downwind of lake superior & michigan.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: pops through the forecast
period.

By early Tuesday morning, the aforementioned clipper system is
expected to be situated across west-central wi with isentropically
driven showers spreading eastward across lake michigan into far
western reaches of the forecast area. Forecast soundings suggest top-
down moistening initially struggles across much of the region early
Tuesday morning before ramping up significantly late morning midday
with showers becoming likely through this time frame, most
widespread across the tip of the mitt into eastern upper. By late
afternoon into the evening hours, the system's cold front is
expected to be sweeping west to east across northern lower as the
center of low pressure treks nearly directly overhead. As was
alluded to by the prior forecaster, simple dynamics of this system
may allow for a few rumbles of thunder, especially across northern
lower, despite a lack of instability. Given the placement of a 120+
kt jet streak, nearly 50 kts of 500 mb wind, and 60-65 knots of
effective bulk shear - suppose there's an outside chance of some
gusty winds mixing down to the surface in any convection and or
heavier showers.

Otherwise, the cold front is expected to clear the forecast area
near or just after midnight with strong cold air advection to
follow. Gusty northwest winds (gusts 20-30 mph) will become the rule
Wednesday morning through much of the day with renewed precip
chances as wrap around moisture on the back side of the departing
system combines with ample lake induced instability to kick of
additional precip across much of the area. Precip should gradually
transition to more natural lake effect variety by Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night as synoptic moisture begins to exit
stage right... Most numerous in northwest flow lake belts of eastern
upper and NW lower. Wouldn't be entirely surprised to see a few more
nocturnal snow flakes in the interior higher terrain, but not
expecting much in the way of impact.

Lake effect showers may linger into Thursday morning, although
warming low levels and depleted background synoptic moisture will
certainly hinder the organization and frequency of showers before
warm air advection takes over in full force Thursday afternoon
ending all precip chances across northern michigan.

High temperatures Tuesday in the upper 40s to low 50s for most,
although will likely feel 5-10 degrees cooler than that given
cloudy showery breezy conditions. A couple of degrees cooler for
Wednesday's highs, but again expected to feel several degrees cooler
than that. High's in the low 50s Thursday with more sunshine
expected to prevail area-wide late in the day as warm air advection
takes over.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 239 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal.

A brief reprieve from the active weather is set to return Thursday
night through Friday as high pressure becomes centered across the
ohio valley aiding to provide quieter sensible weather and
moderating temperatures into the upcoming weekend. Latest long range
trends suggest a weak mid-level wave and attendant surface boundary
sliding across northern michigan Saturday, perhaps with enough
support moisture to bring scattered showers back into the forecast.

However, with little impact, focus turns to early next week as
ensemble guidance suggests a storm system developing across the
central plains before trekking northeast toward the upper
mississippi valley western great lakes. While the details remain
muddy and low confidence at this time, the potential returns for
more wet and windy weather as early as late Sunday through early
next week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 800 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019
vfr aviation weather conditions will prevail across the northern
mi terminals through much of the 00z TAF valid time. Clouds will
increase in coverage, thicken, and lower during the day Tuesday as
a clipper system pushes across the great lakes. Some rain showers
are expected with the clipper as well, especially Tuesday
afternoon. May see conditions degrade to MVFR during the rainfall,
and especially later in the afternoon as the cold front
associated with the system starts to move into the area.

Marine
Issued at 239 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019
gusty west to southwest winds continue into early evening before
diminishing. Still a few marine locations reporting gusts and or
waves near small craft criteria. But those will subside by early
evening.

Quieter weather for tonight. But southerly winds become establish
on Tuesday and there may be another period of small craft advisory
winds waves later in the morning and during the afternoon.

But bigger attention turns to late Tuesday night through
Wednesday as another strong storm system swings through the
region. Westerly to northwesterly gale force gusts look increasing
likely on lakes michigan and huron during that time, and thus plan
to hoist a gale watch.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Gale watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night
for lhz347>349.

Lm... Gale watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for
lmz323-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lsz321.

Near term... Ba
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Pb
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 2 mi49 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 40°F 55°F1014.7 hPa36°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 4 mi49 min W 9.9 G 13 45°F 55°F1013.5 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 13 mi49 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 37°F 56°F1014.7 hPa35°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 15 mi49 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 52°F1015.1 hPa
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 17 mi49 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 41°F 1014.3 hPa
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 39 mi49 min W 4.1 G 4.1 40°F 56°F1015 hPa36°F
WFPM4 - Whitefish Point, MI 40 mi39 min W 5.1 G 8 39°F 1014.6 hPa
SRLM4 48 mi49 min WSW 11 44°F 52°F37°F

Wind History for Little Rapids, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sault Ste. Marie, MI3 mi24 minWSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F35°F76%1015.3 hPa
Sault Ste Marie, Chippewa County International Airport, MI16 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair34°F32°F92%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KANJ

Wind History from ANJ (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.