Wednesday, June3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sault Ste. Marie, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 9:26PM Wednesday June 3, 2020 2:54 AM EDT (06:54 UTC) Moonrise 5:58PMMoonset 3:36AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ322 1030 Am Edt Mon May 25 2020
.the st marys river system has been reopened to vessel navigation... The united states coast guard in sault ste marie has reopened the st marys river system to navigation. The dense fog which affected the river system earlier in the day has now dissipated...allowing for safe navigation once again. Lat...lon 4652 8417 4653 8413 4650 8411 4644 8414 4637 8414 4632 8423 4650 8439 4651 8437 4649 8431 4649 8427 4654 8420
LSZ322 Expires:202005251530;;225390 FZUS73 KAPX 251430 MWSAPX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1030 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020 LSZ322-251530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sault Ste. Marie, MI
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location: 46.46, -84.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 030616 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 216 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 215 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Impactful weather: Chances for showers and thunderstorms across portions of NE lower Michigan today.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Shallow mid level ridging is getting pushed east of us attm, as a shortwave trough is crossing western Ontario and into the western Great Lakes. This was shoving weak low pressure on a cold front south of M-72 attm. Relatively deeper moisture and MUCAPES up to 800j/kg were now sitting across far NE lower Michigan, south of Harrisville, while there was basically no instability north and west of there, ahead of the shortwave. While we did have some showers and thunderstorm activity just south of that portion of NE lower, supported by some right entrance region upper divergence, the main action dove into the previously even greater instability well off to our south in srn lower WI/MI. This is typical. While most of the action was off to our south and west, we were getting some convective light rain and cloud debris across much of the M-55 corridor, with some embedded thunder. Any severe threat has dwindled substantially.

The front just continues to head south through this morning, and the shortwave and it's rather weak forcing and associated precipitation will exit by 12Z. Subsidence and drying in the wake of this wave will bring out the sun for the morning, allowing diurnal heating to begin. There will be little to no synoptic forcing around for the day, outside of a wave dropping through SE Ontario that is expected to fire off some showers and possible storms NE of SSM. We will however, likely have weak enough low level winds for mid-late afternoon lake breeze convergence across far NE lower south of Harrisville, as well in interior eastern upper, mainly Mackinac county. This at least provides for a focus for potential showers this afternoon, induced via good diurnal heating. Modifying latest fcst soundings in these areas, depict maybe a few hundred j/kg of instability for some showers to pop off, probably not any thunder. Whatever does/possibly develops, will push off to the SE in the NW flow aloft, and fade quickly over colder Great Lake water and with nightfall.

The remainder of the night ought to be mostly clear with just some passing cirrus at times. Could have some patchy marine fog that redevelops or is still floating around tonight.

Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s in eastern upper to the upper 70s to lower 80s in nrn lower, cooler coastal areas. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s in eastern upper to mainly the lower half of the 50s in nrn lower.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

. Rain chances increase late Thursday into Friday, with more possible thunder late Friday .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Synopsis/Forecast: Multiple waves will dampen the central CONUS ridging through midweek and the jet sags south over Michigan. This fairly zonal jet remains in place along the US canadian border through early Friday before a pattern changer rears its head through the day Friday A pair of lows pushes onto the west coast. in the form of a deep upper low pushing into the PacNW which phases with a cutoff low swinging northeast out of Southern California. As this occurs omega blocking returns as ridging pumps up over the central CONUS for the weekend. Our main weather-maker for the end of the week is a shortwave sliding down through southern Ontario. This slides a cold front through Michigan Friday, allowing for renewed precipitation chances.

Details: Dry and quiet conditions continue through Thursday morning ahead of the next approaching system. Ahead of this we'll have southwesterly winds which will pump moisture back into the region. Shower chances start to kick off in the afternoon/evening especially near and north of the Bridge as dynamic lift starts to overspread the area ahead of the incoming wave. Moisture and precipitation chances continue to ramp up overnight into Friday, as PWATs climb back to near 1.3". We could again see some thunder chances as MLCAPE values surpass 500 Joules, bulk shear increases to near or above 40 kts, along with the passage of the cold front. We may be capped Thursday and early Friday, but by Friday afternoon the cap looks to weaken as midlevel heights and temperatures start to decrease.

Highs will range from the mid-upper 70s to lower 80s both days, with overnight lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Much of the weekend will be dry until late Sunday when the shortwave overtopping the ridge may generate some very slight precip chances (and at the very least some mid or upper level clouds). This will be at odds with sustained surface high pressure and fairly dry low levels through the weekend. Temperatures remain slightly above normal for early June with highs running in the 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 116 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Weak low pressure on a cold front is pressing south through nrn lower Michigan, and will exit by 12Z Wednesday, taking any convection or light rain along for the ride. Clearing skies behind this front will bring a pretty sunny day, although there could be some marine fog/cloud floating around coastal areas. There could also be a little bit of higher based cumulus, that could lead to isolated showers late this afternoon, primarily for eastern upper and a portion of NE lower. This could theoretically impact PLN/APN late today into early evening. Mostly clear with just some cirrus tonight. VFR for the TAF period, but will have to keep in mind

MARINE. Issued at 215 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

A cold front will drop south of Lakes Michigan and Huron shortly after daybreak, taking any light rain along for the ride. Skies will be fairly sunny for the day, outside of areas of marine fog/stratus (which should erode out for the afternoon). Winds/waves to remain under advisory levels in a relatively weak pressure gradient. Maybe some marine stratus/fog again tonight, and possibly a shot at some showers Thursday-Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 2 mi54 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 51°F 44°F1006 hPa (-0.5)51°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 4 mi54 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 54°F 47°F1005.1 hPa (-0.5)
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 13 mi60 min Calm G 1 56°F 46°F1005.4 hPa54°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 15 mi54 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 50°F1005.4 hPa (+0.0)
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 17 mi54 min Calm G 1 52°F 1005.7 hPa (-0.7)52°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 39 mi54 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 59°F 50°F1005.2 hPa (-0.4)57°F
WFPM4 - Whitefish Point, MI 40 mi74 min E 2.9 G 4.1 52°F 1005.8 hPa
SRLM4 48 mi84 min WNW 11 58°F 47°F55°F

Wind History for Little Rapids, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sault Ste. Marie, MI3 mi59 minWNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F53°F87%1005.5 hPa
Sault Ste Marie, Chippewa County International Airport, MI16 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair57°F54°F90%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KANJ

Wind History from ANJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE44SE4SE4SE3SE5E4SE7SE7SE5SW7W3W9
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W6SW3SW6W4W3NW4
1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW7W7
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2 days agoNW5W7W5SW3CalmCalmCalmSW56SW6W6NW12
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--W6W6CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.