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LSZ248 /o.can.kmqt.ma.w.0066.000000t0000z-231006t0000z/ 719 Pm Edt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled...
the affected areas were... Huron islands to marquette mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Marquette to munising mi...
the Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat...lon 4677 8728 4691 8674 4647 8712 4645 8727 time...mot...loc 2318z 252deg 17kt 4685 8696 4666 8713

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 300720 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 220 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 220 AM EST THU NOV 30 2023

Key Messages: -Another warm day, but cold front may bring cooler temperatures by the middle of the day.
-Isolated light/weak lake-effect snow showers possible along the northwest wind snow belts by this afternoon.

Outside of a couple of bands of high level cloud cover remaining along the Lake Superior shore and Menominee County early this morning, GOES-16 satellite imagery shows clear skies dominating the Upper Peninsula. However, don't expect temperatures to change all that much before dawn, as warm air advection continues to move across our area into the early daylight hours. Therefore, lows this morning are expected to be in the mid 20s to low 30s; I'm thinking some spots have already hit their low already this morning. Moving into the daytime, partly to mostly cloudy skies move back over our area by the early afternoon as a cold front moves across the region.
This cold front may kick off some isolated light lake-effect snow showers across the northwest wind snow belts early this afternoon.
However, with warm temperatures remaining over our area today, no accumulations are expected; temperatures should be above freezing for much of this afternoon across the Upper Peninsula. During the early afternoon hours, there may be some very fine, light rain mixing in with the snowfall within the showers near the Lake Superior shoreline. As the temperatures fall behind the front though, expect the transition to only snow by late this afternoon near the lakeshore. Ahead of the cold front, high temperatures are expected to get up to the mid 30s to the low/mid 40s; the warmest areas look to be near the Great Lakes and the south central.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 439 PM EST WED NOV 29 2023

Key Messages:

- No widespread, significant snowfalls across Upper MI thru next week.
- Weak clipper passes Thu, initiating nw flow light LES into Thu night.
- After dry weather Fri/Sat, a series of shortwaves will bring periodic light snows next week, best chc on Sun.
- Normal to above normal temps to prevail over the next 7 days with warmer conditions to peak late next week.

Medium range models show a broad mid-level low centered over Hudson Bay rapidly weakening/lifting n Fri/Sat. Meanwhile to the w, a progression of shortwaves from the Aleutians thru the Gulf of AK into the western U.S. thru this weekend will establish a trof that will progress downstream into the eastern U.S. during the early to mid portion of next week. Farther upstream, a deepening trof over the ne Pacific/Gulf of AK Mon-Wed will force an expanding, building ridge over the western U.S. into s central Canada. This ridge will then deamplify a bit as it shifts into the eastern U.S. late next week. For Upper MI, this evolution of the flow will lead to temps around normal to above normal over the next 7 days as we first lose the influence of the mid-level low over Hudson Bay and then start the process of Pacific air masses making progressive inroads downstream across the U.S. and southern Canada. Above normal temps should peak late next week as ridging expands to the eastern U.S. As for pcpn, some w to nw flow light LES off of Lake Superior will occur Thu into Thu night, following passage of a clipper shortwave.
Dry weather will follow Fri/Sat as a couple of initial shortwaves ejecting from the western trof pass by to the s thru the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes. Then, the downstream progression of the western trof will continue to feature a series of shortwaves dropping into it. Much of this shortwave energy will pass by to the s, but some -sn will occur in Upper MI at times, particular on Sun over the s and e. As the western ridge begins to build eastward during the last half of the week, a shortwave will round it, bringing the potential of a period of waa -sn around Wed. Farther down the road, longer range model guidance continues to hold onto the long forecasted period of above normal temps for Upper MI heading into mid Dec. So, the above normal temps expected late next week are likely to persist for most if not all of the second full week of Dec per EPS/GEFS/GEPS/CFSv2 and 11/28 00z ECMWF weeklies.

Beginning Thu, a clipper shortwave will track across northern Ontario and Lake Superior. Associated weak sfc low will pass by n of Lake Superior with cold front sweeping across the fcst area during the day. Given track of system, no pcpn is expected, except for developing lake effect which should initiate with isold/sct -shsn along the front. Model and ensemble means indicate 850 mb temps are likely to bottom out at -10C to -11C Thu night. With Lake Superior sfc water temp averaging 5-6C, this will lead to lake-850 mb delta- Ts increasing to the mid teens, supporting sct lake effect -shsn late Thu thru Thu night for areas favored by nw winds. However, given the developing low-level anticyclonic flow, low inversion heights of 5 kft or less and inverted-v look of the fcst soundings below cloud base in the wake of the cold front, snow accumulations are expected to be less than 1 inch.

A w-e oriented sfc high pres ridge will move across the area Fri/Sat, providing quiet/dry conditions. High temps in the low/mid 30s on Fri will increase to the mid/upper 30s on Sat.

Model uncertainty remains high for Sun-Wed with poor agreement and run-to-run continuity regarding a series of shortwaves tracking into and thru the trof progressing to the eastern U.S. Sun has the best chc of any -sn occurring as a shortwave lifts into the Great Lakes, at least closer to Upper MI, with weak waa/isentropic ascent shown.
Southern and eastern Upper MI would be more favored for pcpn. A few days ago, guidance was in better agreement for this snow to occur, then trends were drier and toward very light snow, if it occurs.
The GFS more recently has trended back toward a snowier scenario with the 12z deterministic showing several inches of snow, going against the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET which all maintain the drier look that has been the overall trend. EPS probability of 24hr snowfall of at least 3 inches of snow at a 10 to 1 SLR is under 10pct, GEFS is around 10pct, and the GEPS is highest at 20-30pct. For now, fcst will keep pops in the chc category of 30-50pct, highest s central and e. As the mid-level trof progresses across the area, weak caa will drop 850mb temps to around -8C, marginal for LES. Uncertainty with timing/amplitude of shortwaves dropping into the trof heading toward the E Coast also leads to high uncertainty in whether any brief periods of system light snow may occur Tue/Wed.
Fcst generally broad brushes low pops in the 20-35pct range Mon- Wed, mainly focused across the w and n, given the uncertainty in shortwaves and LES.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1214 AM EST THU NOV 30 2023

VFR conditions are expected to continue early this morning with patches of mid/high clouds around. Later this morning near/after sunrise, somewhat moist low levels are expected to mix into a bkn- ovc MVFR stratocu deck, eventually aided by lake effect processes as well, although precipitation is not expected. Best guess on timing is around 12Z at CMX, 15Z at IWD, and 17Z at SAW. These clouds may tend to scatter out/lift to low VFR by around 00Z Fri, although this potential is uncertain. In addition, a period of low level wind shear is possible from roughly now to 10Z at SAW as a near-surface inversion may develop beneath 30-35kt westerly winds at 2kft.

MARINE
(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 439 PM EST WED NOV 29 2023

A period of lighter winds is shaping up for Fri into early next week. W to sw winds of 20-30kt will prevail tonight ahead of an approaching cold front with the strongest winds early this evening.
A few peak gusts to gale force 35kt will occur at high obs platforms. The cold front will sweep across Lake Superior on Thu, bringing a wind shift to nw winds gusting 25-30kt, strongest across the e half of the lake. Winds will then begin to diminish Thu night as a high pres ridge builds e toward Upper MI. Expect winds mostly blo 20kt by sunrise Fri. Under high pres ridging, winds will decrease further to 15kt or less Fri into Sat. Winds will increase a little for Sun/Mon, but remain under 20kt.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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