Sunrise 5:29 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 12:31 PM   Moonset 1:52 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LSZ148 /o.exp.kdlh.ma.w.0035.000000t0000z-231005t2345z/ 641 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning will expire at 645 pm cdt - .
the affected areas were - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Oak point to saxon harbor wi - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - .
the showers have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. A gale warning remains in effect for this area until 12 am cdt tonight.
lat - .lon 4673 9060 4674 9068 4687 9063 4695 9044 4713 9035 4714 9013 4672 9040 time - .mot - .loc 2340z 265deg 35kt 4710 9010 4694 9019 4679 9044

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 162346 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 646 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog possible overnight before additional showers possible Friday.

- Another round of rain and thunderstorms expected Saturday, with marginally severe conditions possible.

- Very dry day Sunday before additional chances of rain and thunderstorms arrive through next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Our areas of rain and fog will continue to steadily move off this evening leaving a brief period of dry weather into Friday. Lingering low level moist air could lead to some dense fog tonight, especially in northeast Minnesota. A weak ripple in the upper level flow arrives Friday, along with very warm temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures in the high 60s and 70s expected, with some areas along the southern CWA portion getting into the low 80s. This should lead to some isolated to scattered rain showers tomorrow, mostly over northern Minnesota, but CAMs suggest a couple afternoon storms in NW WI are possible as well. Additionally, a lake breeze off Lake Superior is expected to develop in the afternoon, which could be another source of lift for a couple more rambunctious storms to fire in the afternoon along the North and South shores. No severe weather is expected tomorrow.

Another more robust shotwave moves over the Dakotas and into Minnesota Saturday, with a stout small jet. Warm air and southern flow continues, allow a narrow corridor of instability to nose into the Northland. The best shear lags behind the front bringing up an area of over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, which may reduce the severe potential - it will be a matter of precise timing as to whether or not we can get an isolated severe storm or two. If they do line up correctly, the primary hail would likely be hail up to a quarter size. This front pushes northeast Saturday evening, leaving us dry for the second half of the weekend.

Sunday should be a very dry day with humidities dropping into the 20- 30% range and continued warm temperatures in the 70s. The next wave of precipitation should arrive with a low pressure system Monday, but low level dry air may lead to the start time of that precipitation becoming later, more midday Monday into the afternoon.
This disturbance arrives with some good shear and instability, and will have to be monitored for any severe potential. Additional chances for rain continue through next week, but exact details and tracks remain uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Mixed flight cats with conditions improving before deteriorating tonight. IFR or lower fog tonight mostly around and inland of Lake Superior. Still quite a bit of variance in the model guidance with the fog handling overnight, so went middle of the road on forecast. Wind decrease overnight before accelerating from the south on Friday with the strongest winds over NW WI that may gust to 20 kt.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Winds turn southwesterly this evening, as northeast winds subside.
This should allow the lake to lay down a little through Friday morning. Moist air sticks around through Friday morning, which may lead to dense fog becoming more widespread through overnight. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been expanded to include all nearshore zones through 10am Friday. Winds become northeast again Friday afternoon, with a brief gusty period mid to late afternoon at the head of the lake as ample daytime heating reinforces a lake breeze circulation. Some thunderstorms may be possible close to shore Friday afternoon as that lake breeze could pop up some storms along the North and South shores. Winds stay northeasterly into Saturday but ease slightly before becoming southwesterly through the day with some stronger winds up to 20 knots possible.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140>148- 150.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Duluth, MN,