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FXUS61 KCAR 291103 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 603 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
An upper level trof exits across the Maritimes today. A warm front will cross the region tonight into Thursday. A front will cross the region Friday. High pressure approaches from the west Saturday. A low pressure system may impact the region early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
602AM Update...No major changes to the forecast for this update.

Previous Discussion...
The surface trof will slow move east today as a weak surface ridge moves in. For this morning, breezy W winds will continue with the tight pressure gradients on the backside of the shortwave. RH models indicate some cloud thinning towards the afternoon, but expect partly cloud skies. By the afternoon, the ridge will begin pushing in, decreasing winds. Cloud cover and cold air advection will keep temps below freezing across the region. By tonight, a weak low pressure system over Canada will move NE, bringing a warm front north of the region. High-res models show the warm front push north this evening, causing winds to shift to a southerly flow. Thus model temps show an antidiurnal trend through the night, where our coldest temps of teen in the north and 20s in the south across the region will be at the beginning of the night and gradually warm throughout the night. Thought the temps will be increasing tonight, scattered showers moving into the north ahead of the front will be scattered snow showers.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
For Thursday, expect warm advection with a southwesterly low- level flow as surface high pressure moves offshore. Highs will climb above freezing across the entire CWA with some lower 40s towards the coast. Not looking for too much cooling Thursday night as lows dip only into the upper 20s to lower 30s ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will be mostly dry with just scattered rain and snow showers across the north on Friday. Temperatures will be mild ahead of the front with high temp readings exceeding 40F for most of the area and some upper 40s possible for Bangor and coastal Downeast.

The front eases southward across the southern half of the forecast area Friday night while a weak shortwave rapidly moves eastward along the stalled front. The lift is weak and max QPF should be less than a quarter inch along the coast. P-type will be mostly in the form of rain, but north of Bangor towards southern Piscataquis County and eastward towards Millinocket, it's possible that up to an inch could fall in higher terrain.
Some radiational cooling is expected later in the night towards the North Woods where lows bottom out in the teens. Further south along the stalled front, lows will be in the lower 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The stalled frontal boundary remains in place Saturday. Some guidance pushes another shortwave along the boundary on Saturday, but have low confidence in that scenario and will go with slight chance PoPs. Do expect a lot of cloud cover across the southern half of the CWA throughout the day. This will likely limit highs to the mid to upper 30s under the denser clouds. Further north, the nominally colder air behind the front will produce highs closer to the freezing mark. A large high will sprawl across northern Quebec.

For Saturday night and Sunday, the high in Quebec will shift further eastward and cold air damming will set up with falling 925mb temps. This will ensure colder temps Sunday with highs back in the upper 20s for much of Aroostook County and mid to upper 30s for Bangor and Downeast. Weak overrunning precip develops on Sunday into Sunday night...mostly in the form of snow except on the coast.

The period from Sunday night into Tuesday will likely feature a prolonged period of snow for large portions of the area.
Significant snow amounts are most likely in the northern half of the area while rain is more likely towards the coast where easterly flows will promote warmer boundary layer temps. The general scenario features surface low pressure developing in the Gulf of Maine and advecting moisture northward/westward into an emerging upper level cut-off low over the forecast area. Timing and intensity remain problematic. The 29/00Z ECMWF and GEMS are faster in the low pressure system development for Monday into Monday night while GFS/GEFS lag into Monday night into Tuesday with a more amplified solution. The timing discrepancies led to prolonged period of chance PoPs Sunday into Tuesday. Favor a compromise with surface low pressure in the Gulf of Maine Monday night and a northerly flow developing on the backside of the low on Tuesday.

AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions for today with the approaching ridge.
This morning, W winds around 10 kts, then decreasing this afternoon to around 5 kts. For tonight, VFR in the south, mainly VFR with MVFR/IFR possible in snow showers in the north. S-SW winds 5-10 kts.

SHORT TERM: Thursday/Thursday night...VFR. SW winds 10 to 15 kt.

Friday...MVFR cigs possible north of GNR and HUL, otherwise VFR with SW winds near 5 to 10 kt.

Friday night...Becoming IFR due to cigs except north of PQI where VFR is most likely. Chance of IFR vis in snow for MLT and GNR.

Saturday...MVFR tempo IFR cigs most likely with light winds.

Saturday night...VFR north of HUL and GNR. MVFR most likely south of HUL and GNR with light winds.

Sunday...Prevailing MVFR cigs for all sites. Tempo IFR in snow later in the day. Light east to northeast winds.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory has been extended into the rest of today due to both winds and waves. By tonight, winds and waves will decrease below SCA conditions and remain for the rest of the night.

SHORT TERM: An SCA will likely be needed for Thursday into Friday. There is a slight chance of gale conditions Thursday night. The next threat of SCA or gales occurs Monday into Tuesday next week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ050>052.

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Fredericton
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Wed -- 04:48 AM AST     1.97 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 07:45 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:42 AM AST     2.02 meters High Tide
Wed -- 10:25 AM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:29 PM AST     1.99 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 03:22 PM AST     2.00 meters High Tide
Wed -- 04:01 PM AST     2.00 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 04:44 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:16 PM AST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:52 PM AST     2.08 meters High Tide
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