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FXUS61 KCAR 090001 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 801 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will cross the region tonight, then exit across the Maritimes Thursday. Low pressure will track to our south Friday while high pressure builds to our north. Low pressure will track south of the region Saturday. An upper level trough will remain over the area Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
750pm update...Dry air remains entrenched in northern Aroostook County where PoPs and QPF were reduced. A band of mid-level forcing is not too far south across northern Piscataquis County towards southern Aroostook County and have increased QPF for the next 4 to 6 hours in that corridor. With drier air north, have removed mention of fog in northern zones, but retained it in southern zones into early Thursday morning. Reduced PoPs for Thursday. Trend is for the high in Canada and drier air to build slowly southward during Thursday, but there is probably too much remaining 850/700mb moisture to count on much clearing anywhere.

Previous discussion...
Surface low pressure crosses the region tonight, exiting across the Maritimes late, with a trof extending back across the forecast area.
Aloft, an upper level disturbance also crosses the region. Expect rain tonight, tapering to showers late. The greater rain totals through tonight will occur across central and Downeast portions of the forecast area, with the lowest totals across northern Aroostook county. Upper level troffing persists north of the region Thursday, while another disturbance moving around the trof crosses the region.
Expect mostly cloudy skies with isolated/scattered showers Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 40 north, to the lower 40s Downeast. High temperatures Thursday will range through the 50s north, with lower to mid 50s Downeast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Latest guidance continues to trend drier Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds out of Canada into the CWA Sfc low pressure slides off of the mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday evening and with northeast flow over the area it looks to remain far enuf to the south to keep the area dry overnight. Clouds will be present acrs the region in the evening before becoming partly cloudy after about 08z with clearing acrs the northwest by daybreak. Min temps look to drop into the lwr 30s over the North Woods with m/u 30s elsewhere.

Elongated upper level trough will continue to plague the region on Friday with upr lvl cold pool possibly resulting in diurnal showers over the area in the afternoon.

Some differences in guidance with movement of cold pool with GFS moving it out quicker and NAM lingering it over the area into Friday night. Either way have kept just a slight chance of showers over Downeast until 06z before showers try to back in from NB on easterly flow Saturday morning into the afternoon. With cool easterly flow temperatures on Saturday will be cooler than Friday which is already below normal.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Upr low will slowly close off near New England Saturday night and become negatively tilted. How fast this happens and spreads rain to the CWA still remains up in the air. Will continue with chc pops late Saturday night and into the day on Sunday. GFS brings upper low over the waters and into NB before moving it into the Maritimes Monday night.

CMC and EC are much quicker with the movement and subsequent building of upr lvl ridge. Given such uncertainty in any one solution will keep slgt chc-chc pops from Monday morning into Tuesday. With subsequent runs may be able to keep Monday and Monday night fairly dry but too much variability in model solutions to go with this at this point.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, tonight. Rain early tonight, tapering to showers late. MVFR/IFR early Thursday, then VFR/MVFR late. Isolated to scattered showers.
East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots early tonight, becoming northeast/north 10 to 15 knots late. Northeast/north winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Thursday night-Friday...VFR. ENE 5-10kts.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR, with ocnl MVFR in cigs and possible showers. ENE 5-10kts.

Saturday night-Sunday...Mainly VFR though may see MVFR in light showers. NNE 5-10kts.

Sunday night-Monday...Mainly VFR. SW 5-15kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas generally below small craft advisory levels tonight through Thursday. However, a few wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels Thursday. Rain early tonight, tapering to showers late. Isolated showers Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Wind gusts will be marginal over the outer waters Thursday into Friday evening and again on Saturday morning. Seas will range from 2 to 4 feet and may approach 5ft on Sunday and Sunday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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