Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Presque Isle, ME

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:07AMSunset 4:44PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 11:45 AM AST (15:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:59PMMoonset 6:06AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Presque Isle, ME
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location: 46.62, -68     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 101503 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1003 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front crosses the area late today. A secondary cold front crosses the area Wednesday night. High pressure builds in late Thursday. Low pressure approaches the area from the south on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 10am Update . Winds over the waters have slipped below Gale, and have converted these to a Small Craft Advisory. Waves will continue to be elevated given the persistent SW flow into the evening.

Otherwise, adjusted PoPs for this AM. Shower activity has been limited, but some radar returns are increasing across the north after a few breaks in the clouds. More persistent precip still on track for this afternoon, mainly across the Downeast region.

Previous Discission . As of 4am, winds on the Downeast coast have died down some as the low level jet has moved east of the area, and have cancelled the high wind warning and wind advisory. Gusts topped out around 60 mph on the Washington County coast, with even a report of 70 mph just across the border on Campobello Island.

As of 4am, the heavier rain has also tapered off and moved off to the east. Still, however, low clouds and mild air persist with the cold front still well off to the west, even still west of Montreal. Caribou tied a record high of 47 in the pre-dawn hours in this warm pre-frontal airmass.

For today, expect the mild temperatures and low clouds to persist ahead of the approaching cold front. It will be fairly breezy, but with low clouds persisting, not expecting full gust potential to be reached due to limited mixing. Some rain is possible ahead of the cold front, but nothing more than a few more hundredths of an inch. Whether any rain can develop ahead of the cold front is actually very important because of the threat of a flash freeze tonight. As the cold front passes late today with plummeting temps in the evening, any water on roads will likely freeze. The threat is the greatest in the north where temps fall below freezing by mid-evening. Downeast, it drops below freezing a little after midnight and think roads should be dried out by then.

A potential issue tonight for Downeast, however, is a system that could graze the coast with a little snow later tonight into early Wednesday. This is from a shortwave riding up NE just behind the cold front. Most models keep the precipitation mostly just offshore, but a shift north 30 miles and Downeast coast could pick up an inch or two of snow. Reasonable worst case/90th percentile of snow totals has dropped from 6 inches to 2 inches for the Downeast coast with the latest model cycle, so feel confident that even at its worst it won't be a very significant system. For now, going with chance PoPs along the Downeast coast with less than an inch of snow. Also, could be a few snow showers in Northern Maine with perhaps a few Saint Lawrence streamers or a weak Laurentian plume snow band setting up, so went with 20 PoPs up north to account for this possibility.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. An area of moisture and lift will be streaming northeastward just ahead of the upper trough over the Great Lakes Wednesday morning, leading to an area of light snow with a back edge roughly parallel to the coast. Mesoscale models, including the WRF-ARW, NAM, NAM nest, and HRDPS all keep the snow offshore except perhaps the outermost islands, while global models bring snow inland as far as Bangor. Mesoscale models show the best 850mb frontogenesis moving through the coast and offshore before the main plume of moisture aloft builds in. At 250mb, the jet streak’s right entrance region appears to be focused mainly offshore. The 90th percentile of guidance has decreased to around 2 inches along the coast from 6 inches yesterday at this time. Given all these factors, snow amounts were lowered by roughly 50 percent along the coast with accumulations of a coating to an inch shown now. It remains possible that the coast could see little to no accumulation at all.

By Wednesday night, any light snow will begin to move off into the Canadian Maritimes. A strong shortwave trough will move from Eastern Ontario and into Quebec. Its surface reflection is forecast to pass north of Maine near the St. Lawrence River and Gaspe Peninsula by about 6z Thu. A trailing Arctic cold front will move through the area from west to east overnight. Snow squall parameters are lighting up, particularly across the west, with values of over 4. Mesoscale models also indicate some skinny SBCAPE of up to 100j/kg below 15kft AGL and are showing convective snow showers with some quasi-linear segments. Fortunately timing of the snow showers before the morning commute Thursday likely precludes the need for any SQWs. Skies clear during the day Thursday with face-numbing wind chills of 5 to 15 below possible across the north.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Temperatures look more likely to hold steady or even increase slightly compared to what was previously anticipated Thursday night due to mid level cloud cover from a warm front lifting across Ontario, Quebec, and portions of Maine. High pressure center positioning has also trended southward over the Gulf of Maine, so radiational cooling will not be quite as efficient. Forecast lows on the NBM of around 0 across the north and low teens across the south seem more reasonable with this setup. Highs rebound nicely on Friday for what will probably be the best day of the week.

Another warm area of low pressure will move over the area this weekend. Low track is currently projected to be southeast of the previous system that is bringing widespread rain today; However, temperatures aloft will be marginal for snow even at the onset across the north Saturday morning. The previous forecast mentioned freezing rain across the north during this period, which was kept with this forecast update given the presence of high pressure to the northeast just off the coast of Newfoundland that could enhance some cold air damming. All precipitation should change over to rain by Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. A cold front will then move through Sunday afternoon and evening, changing any lingering precipitation over to snow showers. High pressure builds in Monday through Monday night with drier weather and more seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures expected.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. NEAR TERM: MVFR and IFR conditions today with low ceilings. Localized VFR early this morning, but think that's the exception rather than the rule today. Still breezy with some low level wind shear, but not as windy as it was earlier in the night at KBGR and KBHB. Cold front moves through late today with a wind shift and conditions improving rapidly to VFR in the 20z-0z timeframe. Possible exception is KFVE where MVFR cigs could persist. Mainly VFR tonight and breezy from the west.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday to Wednesday night . Mainly VFR with localized and brief IFR in snow showers mainly across the north Wednesday night. Light to modestly breezy west winds are expected.

Thursday to Thursday night . VFR conditions are expected with gusty west-northwest winds during the day. Winds will rapidly diminish overnight with mid level clouds building in.

Friday to Friday night . VFR to MVFR CIGs are expected with increasing and lowering clouds Friday. At least IFR CIGs are possible Friday night as a storm system brings lower CIGs and precipitation into the area. FZRA is possible across the north late Friday night. Breezy southwest winds are also expected.

Saturday to Saturday night . IFR conditions are expected in rain and low CIGs. FZRA is briefly possible across the north Saturday morning.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: Replaced storm warning with gale warning through midday as storm force winds are done. Still some pretty impressive seas to around 15 feet early today. Winds and seas slowly decrease through the day and into tonight, though small craft conditions still expected all this afternoon and tonight after the gale expires at noon.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas continue to decrease Wednesday morning with small craft advisory criteria still being met through at least Thursday morning. Winds may briefly attain gale behind an Arctic cold front Wednesday night into early Thursday morning before decreasing late Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds overhead. The next storm system will approach this weekend, with potential for at least gale conditions by Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052.



Near Term . Cornwell/Foisy Short Term . Strauser Long Term . Strauser Aviation . Cornwell/Foisy/Strauser Marine . Cornwell/Foisy/Strauser


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Presque Isle, ME6 mi49 minSSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F45°F93%1002.1 hPa
Caribou, Caribou Municipal Airport, ME18 mi51 minS 810.00 miOvercast46°F43°F89%999.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPQI

Wind History from PQI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Fredericton, New Brunswick
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Fredericton
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Tue -- 01:25 AM AST     1.66 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 05:54 AM AST     1.71 meters High Tide
Tue -- 05:58 AM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:57 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:02 AM AST     1.68 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 03:55 PM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:41 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:26 PM AST     1.77 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.81.81.81.81.71.71.7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.