Ashland, ME Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashland, ME

June 23, 2024 2:08 AM ADT (05:08 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 9:36 PM
Moonrise 10:32 PM   Moonset 5:43 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, ME
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Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1133 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A front will lift north as a warm front tonight into Sunday as low pressure approaches. Low pressure will cross the area Sunday night into Monday followed by high pressure on Tuesday. A cold front will approach on Wednesday.

11:30 PM Update...Clouds are increasing and the air remains mild tonight. A bit of light rain is seen on radar SW of here.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track with no significant changes needed this hour.

previous discussion A frontal boundary has been stationary to the south of the area this afternoon. Clouds are overhead near Bangor and Downeast, with a few light showers at the coast. A low pressure system tracking northward into the Great Lakes will cause the front to lift northward as a warm front. This will spread showers to transition to a steady rain as the night goes on. Most of the rain tonight will fall from the Central Highlands southward.
Northern Aroostook County will likely remain dry until after daybreak. Warm air overrunning the front will cause a temperature inversion late tonight into Sunday morning. This will allow for patchy fog to develop from the Central Highlands southward. Areas of fog are possible near the coast. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s area-wide.

The aforementioned low will move closer to the area on Monday, brining the front closer. Models show PWAT values exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology for Northern and Eastern Maine.
In addition, a deep, warm cloud layer will be present. These factors are favorable for heavy rainfall. Given the frontal location and the location of the jet streak, expecting the heaviest rain in the North. Antecedent conditions are pretty dry, so not expecting widespread flooding. However, some poor drainage flooding will be possible in heavier downpours.

High temperatures on Sunday will remain in the 60s across the area as the region will not be in the warm sector. This will limit CAPE, so not expecting strong or severe thunderstorms.
However, a few rumbles of thunder are expected on Sunday
Frontal boundary extends from New York State eastward across southern New England. The boundary will gradually lift north overnight into Sunday afternoon as an area of low pressure tracks east along the front. Expect rain to spread into western and downeast areas after midnight while it remains mainly dry through daybreak across the far north.

Slowed the timing of the rain into the Bangor region and Downeast by a few hours based on latest trends and guidance.
Otherwise, just minor adjustments to hourly temps/dew points, based on latest observed conditions.

See updated near term aviation section below.

Sfc warm front will likely be across nrn zones on Sunday evening with lopres still back to the west. Locally heavy rainfall likely to still be ongoing at this time over the north as area remains in RRQ of upr jet streak as it heads into the Maritimes overnight. Still some discrepancies on movement of wave along boundary with EC and CMC much quicker moving it thru as GFS hangs it back further to the west. Latest GFS looks to be much more amplified with other guidance keeping upr level pattern somewhat more progressive. 12z NAM is quickest to drive front through with other guidance hanging the front back until early Monday morning when secondary wave pulls it off of the coast.

Although fropa will have occurred Monday morning H5 trof will still be lingering over CWA and with diurnal htg, expect that there likely will be storms over the region in the afternoon. Given showers and clouds, high temps will top out in the lwr 70s.

For Tuesday have cleared things out in the morning as most of the H5 trof should be east into NB with high pressure building in. Temps will rise back into the 80s as skies clear.

High pressure will dominate the weather through Tuesday night before the next system approaches from the west. Pre-frontal trof may move through Wednesday afternoon, bringing another round of storms to the region. Cold front looks to swing through Wednesday night with a return to near normal temperatures into the weekend.


KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR through most of tonight. Conditions deteriorate to MVFR around daybreak Sunday with VCSH and low clouds. IFR or lower Sunday afternoon with +RA and VCTS. Light S winds tonight. S-SE winds 5-15 kts on Sunday.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR/MVFR early, then IFR/LIFR developing mainly after 05z with -SHRA and patchy fog. IFR or lower on Sunday with RA and patchy fog. Light and variable winds tonight, becoming S-SE 5-15 kts on Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Sunday night-Monday...IFR in fog and locally heavy rain over terminals. Wind S 5-10kts southern terminals, N 5-10kts northern terminals, becoming N 5-10kts.

Monday night-Tuesday night...Improving to VFR. N 5-10kts becoming W 5-10kts Tuesday.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. S 5-15kts becoming NW 5-15kts Wednesday night.

Thursday...Improving to VFR with lingering showers over southern terminals. NW 5-15kts.

NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Sunday morning. Visibility on the waters will be reduced below 2 NM with fog and rain. Seas build to around SCA criteria by late Sunday afternoon and continue building after sunset. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued starting late Sunday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Seas will remain above 5ft through Tuesday morning, especially over the outer waters. Winds will be marginal Sunday night but should remain below 25kts under stable layer. Next chance for headlines may be on Wednesday into Thursday.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.

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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPQI PRESQUE ISLE INTL,ME 19 sm12 minS 0710 smClear63°F61°F94%29.95
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Caribou, ME,

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