Ashland, ME Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashland, ME

December 9, 2023 11:14 AM AST (15:14 UTC)
Sunrise 8:06AM   Sunset 4:44PM   Moonrise  4:20AM   Moonset 2:32PM 

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, ME
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Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 630 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

A warm front approaches today and crosses the region tonight.
Intensifying low pressure tracks across Maine Monday and will draw a cold front across the region Monday evening. High pressure builds Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday.

615am Update...
Adding slight chance of freezing rain/snow/sleet early this morning for Bangor region as radar is showing a few light, brief showers moving through. Otherwise, no changes.

Previous Discussion...
Although the weather is relatively quiet today and tonight compared to what's coming, there are still some being freezing drizzle later today and this evening, and two being fog tonight.

Highs clouds are increasing from the west early this morning.
Chilly start to the day with lows ranging from around 10 below to 15 above. Pretty good inversion with hills warmer than valleys. Lower cloud deck is still back in far Western Maine, but this will be progressing NE toward us, moving into western portions of the area later this morning and into far Eastern Maine this afternoon. As clouds thicken and lower, there is the concern for freezing drizzle, as there will be no cloud ice in the fairly shallow moisture layer, and surface temperatures will be remaining below freezing inland in a shallow cold layer. Best threat for freezing drizzle this afternoon appears to be along the Central Highlands including areas like Greenville, Dover- Foxcroft, and Millinocket, where the terrain may help squeeze out the little bit of moisture into some drizzle. Drizzle or freezing drizzle is possible throughout the whole area though.
Not enough confidence in impacts though to issue any advisories.
Can't rule out a brief period of freezing drizzle in the Bangor region early to mid afternoon before temperatures sneak above freezing late afternoon or early evening as warm advection continues. Coast should be warm enough for just drizzle. Went on the cool side of guidance for temperatures today, as southerly push is not strong enough to really erode the cold air at the surface, and there will be weak cold air damming along/SE of the mountains.

Warm advection continues from the SW tonight, and temperatures will slowly rise through the night. Could still be some freezing drizzle in the mainly in the evening north of Bangor. By dawn Sunday, expect all areas to be above freezing, with just drizzle. Fog is the other concern tonight, and a pretty big concern as we have the perfect ingredients for widespread fog, possibly dense. We have warm advection over a snowpack that will be becoming increasingly wet due to temps sneaking above freezing, and moist low levels with only a light south breeze.
Not enough confidence to issue a dense fog advisory this far in advance, as it's always hard to tell whether visibility will be a mile or two vs quarter mile or less.

Sunday morning will see longwave upr trof pushing east as H5 ridge axis moves into Atlantic Canada. H5 trof remains pretty neutral as it approaches the area. Area will be in warm sector during the day Sunday and will likely see areas of fog and drizzle in the morning hours before lift associated with approaching slow moving frontal boundary gives way to stratiform rain by the afternoon hours. Fog will remain over most of the region with temps and dwpts rising into the 40s over a melting snowpack.

Latest guidance shows wave of lopres riding along the quasi- stationary boundary Sun evening with pops increasing twd categorical acrs wrn areas early in the evening. 00z guidance has shifted ever so slightly to the west as have their respective ensemble means. Sunday night features an axis of heavy rain from about the Dover- Foxcroft area up through Houlton with 12-hrly qpf amounts ranging between 1.5-1.75 inches, especially in upslope over the Central Highlands. River ensemble forecasts indicate the Piscataquis River at Dover has a 38% chance of rising above minor flood stage Monday morning.
Regarding the wind potential, the low-level jet axis has shifted further to the east and with stable layer at the surface the most likely area to see any damaging wind gusts is also further east into Washington County on Monday morning. Given the considerable uncertainty and very low confidence have opted to leave all headlines as is with Flood Watch for southern and central Piscataquis County, the High Wind Watch in effect for Southern Aroostook and points south with a Storm Watch remaining in effect over all waters.

There is the potential with cold air moving into the northwest Monday morning that moderate snow may fall over extreme northwest areas. However, 00z NAM is much further to the west with track of the sfc low on Monday and takes it along the ME/NH border and up along the international border in the evening. Solutions from the deterministic models range from warning snowfall over the northwest from the GFS to potential for freezing rain with the NAM. All this to say is that the 00z models have not made fcst any clearer with this impactful system. Unfortunately the 06z NAM has moved the low over to the other side of the state with up to 12-18" of snow across the north and west.

Low departs into ern Canada Mon night with strong cold advection leading to northwest winds gusting upwards of 30-35 mph at times overnight. Snow showers continue on the backside acrs the north with accumulations of up to one inch in the North Woods early. Temps will drop blo frzg over most of the area by midnight. Any lingering water on roadways likely to freeze leading to black ice overnight.
However, cannot say with any likelihood as winds may help dry roads in the evening.

Cold advection continues on Tuesday with nw winds continuing to gust to near 30 mph in the morning before dropping in the aftn as high pressure builds in from the west. Highs look to climb above frzg on the Downeast coast with areas to the north hovering around the freezing mark. High pressure crests over the region Tue afternoon before next fast moving system brings chc for snow showers acrs the north Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

High pressure builds in again for Wednesday night though timing differs with operational models. Cannot rule out negative single digit lows across the north on Thursday morning

NEAR TERM: VFR to start the day with just high clouds. However, lower clouds will invade the area from SW to NE, first arriving BHB/BGR around 13z. Expect MVFR this afternoon from about HUL SW. Possibility exists for freezing drizzle midday into the afternoon for all but the coast. Don't have enough confidence in it, though, to put in TAFs. Temperatures rise above freezing at BGR after about 21z which should end the threat there, though the freezing drizzle threat persists from MLT/GNR north until late tonight, when temperatures warm above freezing everywhere.
Fog, possibly dense, is also a concern later tonight. Widespread IFR or lower is likely tonight, with conditions gradually worsening through the night. Light S/SE winds increasing to 5-10 kts later tonight.

SHORT TERM: Sunday...IFR/LIFR in fog and drizzle at all terminals in the morning with minor improvement in the afternoon. S 5-10kts gusting to 20- 25kts late.

Sunday night-Monday...IFR/LIFR in heavy rainfall. Cannot rule out snow at FVE late Monday. S 15-25kts, increasing to 20-35kts Monday morning with gusts upwards of 50-60kts at BHB. LLWS possible. Cannot rule out isolated -tsra.

Monday night...MVFR/IFR over northern Aroostook terminals in -shsn.
Improving to VFR at BGR and BHB. W 10-20kts gusts to 25-30kts.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Cannot rule out MVFR over Aroostook terminals in -shsn. WSW 10-20kts and gusty.

NEAR TERM: South winds may approach small craft levels late tonight. Seas remaining below 5 feet.

SHORT TERM: Storm Watch continues for all waters starting late Sunday night, continuing into the day on Monday. Wind gusts to 60-65kts are possible, mainly over eastern portions of the waters as of now. Seas climb to over 20ft on Monday before diminishing below 10ft Tuesday morning. Winds look to drop below gales Tuesday morning but SCA level seas continue through the end of the period.

Existing snow pack/SWE and river ice does not spark great concern. The combination of heaviest rainfall and the greatest snow depth corresponds to Piscataquis County. The terrain in this county may contribute rises in the Piscataquis River and smaller streams in that county. A Flood Watch remains in effect for southern and central Piscataquis County with these concerns in mind.

However, in general, the biggest threat across entire area may be rainfall rates combined with the partially frozen ground.
This could lead to rapid runoff and more widespread urban and small stream flooding issues later Sunday night through Monday.
The key will be the axis of heaviest rainfall and rates. Have opted to get a better look at high res data today before expanding the watch further.

The high tide near 9am Monday morning represents the biggest risk for any coastal flooding and wave runup issues. There are two mitigating factors. First, it is not a particularly high astronomical tide. Second, peak surge is about 4 to 5 hours after the high tide based on current projections. In this scenario, wave runup becomes the primary concern. Seas approaching 15 ft will be fairly likely to deposit rocks on roads exposed to the open ocean. That includes Mount Desert Island locations such as Seawall Road and coastal roads on the Schoodic Peninsula.

If the timing coincidence between peak surge and the high tide becomes more favorable, we will have to take a harder look at surge up the Penobscot River towards Bangor and vulnerable locations such as the Deer Isle Causeway.

ME...High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for MEZ006-011-015>017-029-030-032.
Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning for MEZ010-031.
MARINE...Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for ANZ050>052.

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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KPQI PRESQUE ISLE INTL,ME 19 sm18 mincalm10 smClear19°F14°F79%30.31

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Caribou, ME,

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