Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 5:46AM||Sunset 9:31PM||Friday July 10, 2020 4:33 PM ADT (19:33 UTC)||Moonrise 11:44PM||Moonset 10:25AM||Illumination 72%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, MEHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KCAR 101749 AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 149 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
SYNOPSIS. High pressure will cross the region today. Low pressure will approach from the south tonight then track west of the area Saturday. A cold front will cross the region Sunday followed by upper level low pressure early next week slowly exiting the region to the east on Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Update . High pressure, at both the surface and aloft, will remain across the region this afternoon along with warm humid conditions. Diurnal heating will support the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with the better chances across central and northern portions of the forecast area. With weak winds aloft, expect the showers/thunderstorms will only move slowly with the potential to produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Otherwise, expect generally partly sunny skies this afternoon. The exception could occur along the immediate Downeast coast where more extensive low clouds could persist into the afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the upper 80s to around 90 north, to the lower to mid 80s interior Downeast. Temperatures along the Downeast coast will generally range through the 70s. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with afternoon temperatures and clouds
Previous Discussion . Late tonight, shwrs and potentially semi-steady rain will begin to arrive ovr Downeast areas from the periphery of Fay movg N from the mid-Atlc states coastline with fog again possible ovr this area. Ovrngt lows will again be quite warm region wide.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. TS Faye is forecast to lift from the Mid Atlc region on up into the Nern US. The consensus of the model guidance brings the center across NYS as it transitions to extra-tropical. Tropical feed of moisture will be transported northward during the day on Saturday. The strongest forcing is expected to be across NYS, VT and NH where some heavy rainfall is possible. There is a plume of deep moisture shown by the NAM/ECMWF and GFS that gets pulled up into western areas of Maine during the day on Saturday. S winds of 30-40 kts at the 925-850mbs layer crossing SE winds at the sfc will allow for some decent overrunning and the potential for periods of heavy rainfall as east as Piscataquis County into southern Penobscot County and portions of the Downeast region. Up to an inch or so of rain is possible by Saturday evening. Decided to leave the mention of tstms in the forecast as some elevated CAPE is shown by the GFS and even the NAM. Further n and e, rainfall amounts will be less. Daytime temps will be much cooler given the rain and clouds. The rain looks like it will wind down Saturday night as the best forcing lifts into southern Canada w/some scattered showers remaining. Given the dry conditions and the expected rainfall amounts, the flood threat attm looks to be minimal. Some partial clearing is possible late at night which will aid in fog development. It will be a humid night w/overnight temps in the 60s across the CWA.
Sunday will see see low clouds and fog in the morning which should burn off and some sunshine is possible. It will remain humid and temps are expected to warm AOA 80F by the afternoon. The atmosphere is expected to destabilize w/a frontal system apchg from the w. Showers and tstms are expected to develop in the afternoon and last into the evening. A potent upper level disturbance associated w/the front and good shear will allow for good tstm organization. The ECMWF and GFS point to this potential. Decided to keep the mention tstms in the forecast but it is still too early to add any enhanced wording. This can be dealt with as we move closer to the event. The activity looks like it will wind down by early evening w/the loss of diurnal effects and the best mid level forcing lifting into NB. Another round of fog expected Sunday night into early Monday morning.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. An active pattern continues through mid week. A series of disturbances will be moving across the region bringing the threat for showers and tstms up through Wednesday. A warm front is shown by the long range guidance to lift up across the region later Monday into Monday night bringing the first round of showers and possible tstms. The front looks like it stalls across the region on Tuesday w/another disturbance lifting up across the region. This will set the stage for another round of showers and tstms. A brief break in the activity expected Tuesday evening, but then shower and possible tstms on Wednesday as the upper low across the eastern Great Lakes swings across the region. Some interesting things to note are the upper level difluence noted at 500 mbs especially Tuesday and Wednesday and the cold pool aloft which could result in some strong tstms. Still plenty of time to assess this potential. Humidity holds into Tuesday w/daytime temps expected to be near normal.
A cold front is shown by the long range guidance to push through the region on Thursday w/yet another round of showers and possible tstms. The latest guidance shows afternoon temps on Thursday to reach into the 80s.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions will occur along the Downeast coast through early afternoon with low clouds and fog. The low clouds and fog could then linger along the immediate Downeast coast through the afternoon. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will produce variable conditions across mostly northern and central portions of the forecast area. Locally gusty winds and heavy rains are possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. Conditions are then expected to lower to IFR/LIFR levels across the forecast area overnight with low clouds and fog along with developing showers.
SHORT TERM: Saturday: LIFR/IFR going to MVFR by the afternoon w/showers and possibly a tstm. SSE winds 10-15 mph.
Saturday night . A return to IFR/LIFR w/fog for all terminals. SSE winds around 10 mph.
Sunday: IFR to MVFR, becoming VFR in the afternoon. Showers and possible tstms. S wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday night: Showers and tstms early. VFR w/the possibility of MVFR and IFR late at night w/some fog and low cigs. Light SSW wind.
Monday: Patchy and low cigs early w/IFR in the morning. Otherwise, VFR. Light and variable wind becoming SEE around 10 mph.
Monday night: VFR becoming MVFR and possibly IFR w/fog once again. SSE wind dropping below 10 mph.
Tuesday: IFR/MVFR, becoming VFR. SSE wind 10 mph.
MARINE. NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels this afternoon through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in fog this afternoon through tonight. Scattered showers are also expected later tonight.
SHORT TERM: Areas of fog will be across the waters through at least Monday w/vsbys down below 1 NM at times especially overnight into morning hrs. A S swell coming into the area will bring seas up close to 6 ft later Sat into early Sun mainly across the outer waters. SSW winds are expected to increase to 10-20 mph.
Sun into Sun night . S swell will continue w/seas of around 6 ft across the outer zones, while the intra-coastal zones will see 4-5 ft. SSW 10-15 kt w/gusts to 20 over the outer zones.
Mon into Tue . SSW wind continues at 10-15 kts. Showers and possible tstms w/some fog at night. Seas are expected to subside some w/heights 4-5 ft.
CLIMATE. Today will very likely be the 26th day this year with a high of 80 degrees (F) or warmer in Caribou, Maine. The long term (30 year average, 1981-2010) is 26 days. This would also be the earliest in the year that we have observed 26 days with a high of 80 or warmer in Caribou, if indeed we reach 80 degrees (the forecast afternoon high this afternoon for Caribou is 88).
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. MARINE . None.
Near Term . Norcross/VJN Short Term . Hewitt Long Term . Hewitt Aviation . Norcross/Hewitt Marine . Norcross/Hewitt Climate . VJN
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|Presque Isle, ME||19 mi||37 min||SSE 8||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||87°F||72°F||61%||1017.9 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KPQI
Wind History from PQI (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||S|
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (15,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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