Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 8:05AM||Sunset 4:44PM||Sunday December 8, 2019 2:40 PM AST (18:40 UTC)||Moonrise 3:07PM||Moonset 3:55AM||Illumination 90%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, MEHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KCAR 081804 AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 104 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019
SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build across the region today and begin to shift east late in the day. A warm front will cross the area tonight through early Monday. Low pressure will track northwest of the region Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday with strong high pressure building into the area on Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 105 pm update . Warm advection snow showers are working their way acrs srn Quebec twd the region as of 18z. May see isold snow showers, mainly acrs the St. John Vly, this aftn. Temps contg to rise under warm advection. No chgs neeeded to fcst with this update.
Previous discussion: High pressure centered over western New England early this morning will move off the southern New England coast this afternoon. The high will continue to move east of New England tonight. Low pressure developing in the central plains today will track toward the midwest tonight. return flow and warm air advection will commence today and continue tonight with some weak overrunning precipitation from very late this afternoon into tonight, mainly across the northern third of the FA. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the mid 20s north, around the freezing mark in Bangor, with m/u 30s along the coast. The combinaton of clouds, a moderate southwest flow, and milder air mass will cause temperatures to slowly rise tonight. Model soundings and thickness support mostly snow in the north and rain Downeast, but QPF amounts look quite light. Although some freezing rain can't be ruled out toward morning in central areas, confidence with low PoPs/QPF is not high enough to include at this time.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Low pressure will be moving over the Great Lakes and northeastward into Ontario and Quebec while deepening Monday into Monday night in response to a 150+ knot 250mb jet streak and upper level trough. Significant warm air advection will occur with a near linear increase in temperatures for most during the 24 hour period. The minimum temperature for Monday night was adjusted upward compared to model blends to show little to no decrease overnight. Temperatures will start out marginal for snow and freezing rain across the north Monday morning, but fortunately QPF remains light through about 0z when a strengthening low level jet will enhance moisture transport and convergence sufficiently to create more widespread precipitation. One caveat to the earlier light precipitation is a weak boundary noted on 925mb theta-e around and just before 12z Monday that may locally enhance precipitation from about Houlton to Millinocket. Overall, the greatest QPF of over 1 inch is currently across Downeast Maine, where PWATs of over 1 inch are expected along with some convective element to enhance precipitation. Hydro issues are not expected to be widespread, but the best combination of warm temperatures, snowpack melt, and rainfall will exist across central regions including the Piscataquis River where ice jams and other minor flooding cannot be completely ruled out. Further north, deeper snowpack will absorb some of the QPF, which will already be lower to begin with.
Winds will be modestly breezy during the day Monday before increasing with the arrival of a low level jet Monday night. 0Z NAM guidance for Eastport indicates speeds up to around 100 knots at 850mb, with 90+ knots extending down to 900mb. Local research has found that low level jets of this magnitude more often then not produce damaging wind gusts and power outages along the coast. Given these factors, a high wind watch has been issued for the coast for a 10 hour period where the low level jet is strongest Monday night. Elevated instability and strong forcing for ascent could also lead to convection, including the risk of lightning, which is not currently mentioned in the forecast explicitly yet. Convection could enhance wind gusts as well. Minor coastal flooding is also possible, but this threat will be more closely evaluated in subsequent shifts.
By Tuesday morning, the low level jet will move east of Maine into Canada, taking the best forcing for precipitation and strongest winds with it. A cold front will cross the area by Tuesday afternoon with scattered mainly light precipitation accompanying it.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. A southern stream shortwave trough will interact with the previously mentioned cold front along the coast to produce an area of snow just behind the front Tuesday night. Uncertainty remains high regarding the northward extent of the snow, with the 0z GFS and NAM runs farther north compared to the EC. For now a light accumulation is included over portions of Coastal Downeast Maine.
A second, northern stream shortwave trough will pass through on Wednesday evening. PWATs are quite dry at around 0.10 inches, which will limit QPF. Guidance is in relatively good agreement bringing the surface low pressure from southern Quebec and into Maine, but any snow should be relatively light with upslope enhancement likely playing a key role.
A cold area of high pressure will build over the region Thursday into Thursday night, with the coldest night of the season expected Thursday night. Temperatures were adjusted downward compared to the NBM, and in some cases over 10 degrees lower including at Estcourt Station, where some bias corrected guidance even suggests lows of 20 below zero are possible. Fortunately the very cold temperatures are short lived as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds in and the surface high slides off to the east, allowing return flow to moderate temperatures close to or even above freezing for Friday and Saturday afternoons.
Further into the extended model solutions diverge, but there is reasonable agreement for another storm system around next weekend that could bring a mixed bag of precipitation types depending on the ultimate low track. Based on the ensemble height anomalies, the forecast upper trough positioning does favor a low track slightly to the southeast of the Monday to Tuesday system, so more wintry precipitation is likely, particularly across the north.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected to diminish to MVFR late tonight a northern terminals as -sn expected to break out with low cigs. Downeast terminals likely to rmn VFR through 12z before dropping to MVFR after this time. LLWS at 2kft expected through the nighttime hours for all terminals before weakening toward morning.
SHORT TERM: Monday to Monday night . IFR to LIFR expected with rain. South to southwest winds expected with significant low level wind shear likely. Fog is also possible.
Tuesday to Tuesday night . IFR to start the period with south to southwest winds shifting west-northwest with a frontal passage overnight. Precipitation may transition to snow and prolong IFR/LIFR conditions with the greatest chance along the coast, but uncertainty regarding how far north snow gets remains high during this period.
Wednesday to Wednesday night . Mainly VFR with localized MVFR in light snow showers mainly across the north Wednesday night. Light to modestly breezy west winds are expected.
Thursday to Thursday night . VFR conditions are expected with gusty west-northwest winds.
MARINE. NEAR TERM: Have converted the gale watch to a gale warning for tonight, but will end it Monday morning as there will be a break before an even stronger bout of wind affected the area, but more on that below.
SHORT TERM: Gusts to storm force are expected Monday night and a storm watch is in effect through 12z Tuesday. Winds will decrease rapidly and seas soon thereafter Tuesday into Tuesday night, with small craft advisory criteria likely being met through at least Wednesday night. Winds and seas drop below SCA by Thursday as high pressure builds overhead.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Astronomical tides will be low during a significant wind storm Monday night and total water levels are not expected to be an issue, but the combination of wave heights and somewhat longer period waves mean some splashover is possible on coastal roads such as Seawall Rd on MDI and on Schoodic Point. Will continue to closely monitor for any future potential statements.
CLIMATE. Unseasonably mild temperatures are expected on Tuesday, but at this time it appears they will fall a bit short of record highs. The record high in Caribou is 47F, set in 1973. The record high in Bangor is 56F, set in 2008. Near record warm low temperatures are possible Tuesday, but probably will not occur as temperatures will likely begin to drop off rapidly late in the evening as a strong cold front passes.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . High Wind Watch from Monday evening through late Monday night for MEZ029-030. MARINE . Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.
Near Term . CB/Farrar Short Term . Strauser Long Term . Strauser Aviation . CB/Farrar/Strauser Marine . CB/Farrar/Strauser Tides/Coastal Flooding . MCW/CB Climate . CB
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|Presque Isle, ME||19 mi||45 min||SSE 5||10.00 mi||Fair||25°F||14°F||63%||1028.9 hPa|
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Wind History from PQI (wind in knots)
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (13,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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