Ashland, ME Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashland, ME

June 15, 2024 2:29 PM ADT (17:29 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 9:33 PM
Moonrise 1:59 PM   Moonset 1:11 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, ME
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Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 151717 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 117 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build in this weekend then shift south of the area on Monday. The area will remain under the influence of high pressure through later next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1:17PM Update...No major changes. Minor tweaks to sky, winds and temperatures based on the trends.

previous discussion Cold front will continue to sag south and off the Downeast coast early today. Some lingering showers can be expected this morning for the coast and downeast Maine until the front finally moves through later this morning.

Otherwise, high pressure builds east from the Great lakes region today. The trend will be for decreasing clouds and increasing sunshine today. A northerly breeze will advect in much drier and cooler air. Afternoon highs across the north will range from the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s for the Bangor region and downeast areas.

Have issued a Beach Hazard Statement for the Hancock County coast in coordination with neighboring office and U.S. Coast Guard. Have decided not to issue for Washington county coast as more in the way of clouds are expected to linger longer there with scattered showers lingering through mid day.

High pressure continues to build east toward the region overnight.
Expect a mainly clear and cool night. Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s to near 40 degrees across the north and low to mid 40s for Bangor and Downeast. Some patchy frost is possible late tonight across the North Maine Woods along with patchy river valley fog elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
By Sunday morning sfc high will be in the vicinity of the Hudson Valley and building off of the New England coast in the afternoon.
Winds will begin to back around to the southwest late in the afternoon with light sea breeze developing along the coast. Max temps will be in the low to middle 70s over inland area and sunny skies with coastal zones in the low-mid 60s.

Sunday night will see a warm front and ridge runner approach late.
Clouds will be on the increase from the southwest with all but nern zones mostly cloudy by daybreak. Given cloud cover and southerly flow temps will only be able to drop into the lwr 50s, though some locations acrs the north might be able to dip into the 40s.
By 12z Monday isolated showers may be entering into the North Woods.

Monday looks to be cooler than currently advertised with cloud cover and showers moving thru CWA By 00z Tuesday sfc warm front looks to be over the Green and White Mountains of New England. Showers developing ahead of the front and with aforementioned s/wv moving thru the area looks to only bring a few hundredths of an inch, mainly over swrn areas. Maxes likely to be warmest over the northeast in the middle 70s where Central Highlands down into the Bangor region only tapping into the lower 70s. Coast and the outer islands may well stay in the 50s to around 60 with onshore flow.

Showers will be moving offshore late Monday night with upper level ridge beginning to exert itself into the area from the southwest. By 12z Tuesday deterministic guidance and their respective ensembles means have 595mb high over the mid-Atlantic with ridge nosing into New Brunswick. H5 heights on the order of 2 SD above normal looks to be present acrs the CWA early Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Confidence continues to be very high with our upcoming heat wave. In fact exceedance probabilities are gradually increasing for highs over 90F on Tuesday afternoon, mainly north of Baxter SP. Ensemble means are showing H5 heights over the area ranging from 2.5-3 SD above normal during the afternoon on Tuesday.

Little relief from the heat is expected on Tuesday night with lows north of Bangor remaining in the U60s to near 70. Downeast coast will support lows in the 50s thanks to cold ocean temperatures.

Dewpoints will be on the increase Wednesday afternoon as the majority of the area will top out around 70, outside of the coast and outer islands. Have bumped temps by a degree or two with nearly 600dm heights over the NJ coast. Being on the northern periphery of this anomalous H5 ridge may allow a s/wv to track across and bring showers to the region in the afternoon. For the time being have gone with near record highs north of interior Downeast on Wednesday afternoon (see climate section below). Ensembles are showing H8 temps of 21C (CMC), 20C (EC) and 19C (GFS). A max value of 22.1C occurred on on the 00z sounding out of CAR on 8/1/95 with a high of 93 degrees that day, so records are not out of the realm of possibility. Any showers that fall across the north will likely increase dewpoints in the afternoon to make it feel like over 100 degrees. Maximum heat indices on Wednesday look to be around and possibly over 100F north of interior Downeast. Heat Advisory looks like it will be needed without a doubt and will need to look a little more closely at a potential Excessive Heat Watch if models continue to trend warmer.

For Wednesday night temps will only drop into the lower 70s acrs the north and west with m/u 60s over interior Downeast. On Thursday guidance continues to differ on timing of the cold front with GFS/EC bringing it through in the afternoon, though not before nrn areas rise once again toward 90F. Central areas may be able to reach into the middle 90s before clouds and showers have an impact. Given that the cold front may come through during the hottest part of the day thunderstorms will definitely be a threat. If the cold front can move through in the afternoon, and uncertainty is very high on this idea, then storms will no doubt be strong as they break the heatwave. Temps on Friday and into the weekend will be around 80F.

AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: 18z TAF Update...VFR conditions with SCT-BKN 035-050 becoming FEW-SCT over next several hours. AMD NOT SKED added to FVE due to ongoing comms issue. Gusty NW winds this afternoon 15-20kt
No major changes
Becoming SKC tonight.

Previous Discussion...
VFR conditions expected all terminals through tonight.
The exception will be KBHB vicinity which may see brief MVFR conditions in showers this morning. Also, early morning patchy fog may affect KPQI early Sunday. N wind 10 to 15 kt today, then 5 to 10 kt tonight.

SHORT TERM: Sunday-Wednesday...VFR. WNW 5-10 kts Sunday, becoming SW 5-10kts into Wednesday.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA levels into the early part of the week. Seas will barely approach 5 ft over the outer waters early Tuesday morning before diminishing through the middle of next week. Patchy fog may reduce visibilities over the water at times early next week.

CLIMATE
June 19th Forecast Highs Records:

Caribou (96) 96 in 2020 Bangor (92) 95 in 1995 Millinocket (95) 95 in 2020 Houlton (93) 95 in 2020 Frenchville (96) 93 in 2020

June 20th Forecast Mins Max Min Records:

Caribou (74) 68 in 1970 Bangor (68) 72 in 1931 Millinocket (71) 69 in 1923 Houlton (70) 67 in 1976 Frenchville (71) 65 in 2016

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029.
MARINE...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPQI PRESQUE ISLE INTL,ME 19 sm33 minNNW 15G1910 smA Few Clouds63°F45°F52%29.95
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Caribou, ME,




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