Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:12AMSunset 5:15PM Saturday January 18, 2020 2:25 AM AST (06:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:50AMMoonset 12:39PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, ME
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location: 46.62, -68.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 180525 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1225 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Arctic high pressure will build into the area overnight and crest over the region on Saturday. Low pressure will approach Saturday night from the Great Lakes region and track across the area Sunday. An upper trough will remain over the area Monday into Tuesday with high pressure building in for Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. 1225 am update . 1042mb sfc high located over Upstate NY and building ewrd twd New England. This wl likely result in winds decreasing thru the overnight hours outside of the higher elevations. Temps hv dropped to 0 or below north of interior Downeast with srn areas approaching 0 as of midnight. Colder locations ovr nw Aroostook are approaching -20F attm. Wind chills hv eclipsed -25F across the northwest area and wl continue to drop close to the -35 mark by daybreak. Wl continue with the idea of the Wind Chill Advisory dropping off at 4am as winds begin to decouple acrs the north though air temperatures wl still rmn plenty cold. Quick update to bring latest obs into grids but no significant chgs needed at this time.

Previous discussion: Gradient holding this afternoon but showing signs of weakening per the last 3 hr trends. The blowing snow issue should be alleviated by the evening w/the winds letting up. Wind chill Advisory for northern areas will be extending to about 09Z(4 AM) Saturday due to very cold temps and winds expected to hang up 6-10 mph. Winds are expected to drop off as high pres to the west start to press into the region just before daybreak. RAP/NAM soundings show inversion trying to set up. Very cold airmass in place and w/winds dropping off and clear skies, some very cold temperatures by 7 AM. As a matter of fact, all sites across the CWA will see temps below 0F by 7 AM. Some sites across the n and w could be seeing reading AOB -25F.

Saturday will be another cold day w/daytime temps about 5 to 10 degree warmer than they were today. Light winds will make for a more tolerable day to be outdoors. Temps will be still be below normal for mid January. Clouds will be on this increase during the afternoon as low pres apchs from the Great Lakes region.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Saturday night into Sunday afternoon across Interior Downeast into the Upper Penobscot Valley and Bangor Region where 5 to 9 inches is possible. Elsewhere, a widespread snowfall is expected of 4 to 7 inches.

Low pressure will track from the eastern Great Lakes across central New England Saturday night, with development of a coastal low along the east coast. The second low will undergo intensification as it tracks into the Gulf of Maine towards Nova Scotia w/ left front quad of 500mb jet. This will mainly affect how far north rain/snow mixes in, which for now is confined to the immediate coast Sunday morning. Interior Downeast will be under an area of snow enhanced by the strengthening low. As the parent low begins to track across central New England, a trough of warm air aloft extends back through the forecast area. This prolongs moderate snow rates as parent low moves across central New England Sunday afternoon.

Some additional fgen banding may result Sunday afternoon on the backside as cold air begins to flush in at 700mb against retreating warm air. At this time, it is most apparent only on higher res NAM and Canadian guidance at a local scale from the Central Highlands towards Calais/Eastport. With a nudge to the south in track, cloud ice looks to linger, keeping freezing rain/drizzle to a minimum or nil along the coast.

All areas will taper to snow showers Sunday evening and overnight, with dry but cold conditions expected for Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Temperatures will remain on the cold side for the long term, but dry weather is expected. Two nights of below zero lows are possible Monday night and Tuesday night as strong high pressure crashes into the eastern Great Lakes. Tuesday night stands best chance of being the colder of the two as the center of high pressure nears and skies have greater chance to clear out. Winds will also be mostly calm, allowing for good radiational cooling. Temperatures begin to rebound toward mid to end of the week, as highs trend into the mid to upper 20s across the forecast area with lows in the teens.

AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. NEAR TERM: VFR expected at northern terminals through end of TAF valid time. Restrictions will begin to appch MVFR toward 06z for terminals north of KHUL. Downeast terminals will see IFR vsbys by 02z as light snow begins.

SHORT TERM: Sat night-Sun: IFR in -sn with -snra mix at BHB Sun morning. E winds Sun morning becoming W during the day.

Sun night: MVFR north with VFR Downeast. WNW winds 5-15kts.

Mon-Wed: Mostly VFR. Nw winds

MARINE. NEAR TERM: The gales were transitioned to small craft advisories a short time ago, and have issued the SCA until 08Z on the intra-coastal waters and until 12Z on the coastal waters. A few gusts to 35 knots are still possible until around midnight on the coastal zone from Eastport to Schoodic Point, but the wind will continue to trend down during the next couple of hours.

SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed Saturday night as S winds increase above 25 kt. Winds will decrease Sunday morning amid a wind shift to the NW through Sunday afternoon with winds again approaching SCA Sunday night. Freezing spray will be possible during Sunday night and Monday morning as well. Wave heights will remain fairly steady across the coastal waters 3 to 5 feet, slackening with winds Tuesday night into Wednesday.

EQUIPMENT. The Caribou, Maine ASOS observation is still not making it out due to a communications issue. We hope to have the issue resolved in the near future.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Wind Chill Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for MEZ001>006-010. Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for MEZ011-015>017-031-032. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for ANZ052. Freezing Spray Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ050>052. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ050- 051.



Near Term . Farrar/Hewitt Short Term . Cornwell Long Term . Cornwell Aviation . Farrar/Hewitt/Cornwell Marine . Farrar/Hewitt/Cornwell Equipment . CB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Presque Isle, ME19 mi30 minNNW 710.00 miFair-6°F-11°F75%1036.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPQI

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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmN6N7N9N12N15N15N17N21
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.