Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 9:00 PM Moonrise 7:16 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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FXUS61 KCAR 111553 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1153 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds across the region through tonight. A warm front approaches Sunday, then lifts to the north Sunday night and Monday. A storm system approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday then crosses the region Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Update...
Surface high pressure centered across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence will ridge across the region this afternoon. Aloft, upper troffing re-develops with a disturbance moving through the trof. Forecast soundings indicate steep low level lapse rates this afternoon which will support diurnal cloud development along with isolated showers. Otherwise, expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area through the afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area. Have slightly increased expected high temperatures across much of the region with this update. Have also updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected afternoon clouds.

Previous Discussion...
By tonight, the ridge starts to weaken, which will help keep cloud cover across the south, but decrease in the north. Temps in the north could reach towards freezing, however, if the clouds return later in the night, then temps will hover just above freezing.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Quiet weather is expected through the period. On Sunday, an upper low will be over the area, but high pressure at the surface. Little moisture will be available for shower activity beyond a few sprinkles, but enough 850mb should be in place for partly to mostly cloudy skies on Sunday. The clouds will help limit highs to around 60F. Light winds and clearing skies will promote strong radiational cooling Sunday night as lows drop into the 30s. The frost/freeze program will be in effect for Bangor and Downeast by Sunday night, but temps do not look cold enough for frost at this point.

Upper level ridging builds Monday and the surface high builds east of the area. Temps will warm to the low to mid 60s. That could generate some modest instability in the 850 to 700 mb layer with partly cloudy skies and a few sprinkles.

Clear skies and light winds will allow a shallow radiation inversion to develop Monday night with lows dropping to the lower 40s, but clouds increase later in the night ahead of an approaching warm front. Cannot rule out rain by late night, but with very dry air in place and upstream blocking, the front will make slow progress.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A wetter and warmer pattern emerges in the long term. Blocking the the Atlantic will keep a slow-moving frontal system in the area Tuesday and Wednesday...possibly into Thursday. In general, a northern stream warm front moves into the area Tuesday. A trailing cold front then moves into the area Tuesday night and stalls. At that point, deep southern stream moisture is pulled northward along the stalled boundary into Maine late Tuesday night into Wednesday night. There is potential for an inch or two of rainfall, but it is still uncertain exactly where the front stalls and where that heavier precip is focused. Given the uncertainties, have capped PoPs at 70 percent or less Tuesday into Wednesday and went with a more progressive NBM solution to push rain out of the area Thursday. Part of the uncertainty for Wednesday night into Thursday revolves around how the southern stream system phases with the northern branch. In the case of ECMWF, the southern stream system becomes a vertically stacked cut off south of the area and precip ends earlier than GFS and GEMS solutions.

Once the system does move out Thursday into Friday, the expectation is for mild temps and upper ridging. Readings in the 70s would be possible by next Friday.

AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected this afternoon into tonight.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Saturday night through Monday night...VFR with light winds

Tuesday into Wednesday...MVFR tempo IFR due to cigs and vis reductions in rain. South winds 10 to 15 kt. LLWS possible Tuesday night.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels this afternoon through tonight. Isolated late afternoon showers.

SHORT TERM: Quiet conditions until Tuesday when fog becomes increasing likely. Long period south swell Tuesday night into Friday could be over 5 ft and necessitate a Small Craft Advisory.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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