Sunday, February23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Center, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:52PM Sunday February 23, 2020 9:31 AM PST (17:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:37AMMoonset 6:01PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 859 Am Pst Sun Feb 23 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday... Combined seas 10 to 12 feet building to 14 to 16 ft with breakers possible this afternoon. Bar conditions rough becoming severe this afternoon. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 430 pm this afternoon and 5 am Monday. The afternoon ebb will be strong.
PZZ100 859 Am Pst Sun Feb 23 2020
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A strong frontal system moved through the waters early Sunday morning. Strong onshore flow behind the front this afternoon. Onshore flow will ease Monday and Tuesday with high pressure over the waters. A weak front will dissipate over the area Tuesday night or Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Center, WA
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location: 46.63, -123.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 231157 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 357 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2020

Updated short marine and aviation.

SYNOPSIS. A pacific front will bring breezy conditions, valley rain and mountain snow to the region today. Large waves will bring increasingly hazardous surf conditions to the beaches this afternoon and tonight. High pressure will then return to the West Coast of the US and result in cool nights, mild days, and mainly dry weather this upcoming work week.

SHORT TERM. Today through Wednesday . Satellite imagery early this morning shows a rather impressive looking ~990mb low pressure moving eastward between Vancouver Island and Haida Gwaii. A trailing cold front is sliding southeastward towards the region. Strong lift ahead of a mid level vort max coupled with low level warm advection underneath cooling temperatures aloft has resulted in plenty of elevated showers with a few embedded thunderstorms breaking out off the WA coast this morning. While the best instability will likely be present north of our CWA this morning underneath the main 500mb cold pool, cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm or two across our far northern zones. In addition, daytime heating will enhance surface based instability for inland locations this afternoon across southwest Washington in the post frontal airmass and cannot rule out a brief thunderstorm or two popping as well.

The first signs of the surface cold front off the WA coast are becoming apparent on KLGX radar. A linear extrapolation of the radar returns accompanying it, suggest it will likely reach the north coast around 6 AM and push through the Willamette Valley between 8- 11 AM. Expect a burst of heavy rain and breezy conditions to accompany frontal passage.

A brief lull in the wet weather behind frontal passage and even an hour or two of sunshine will likely immediately behind the front. However, instability will gradually deepen and expect showers to spread eastward across the area this afternoon. Brief heavy rain and small hail will likely accompany the most intense showers. With the coldest temperatures aloft remaining over Washington today, expect showers this afternoon to be more numerous and more intense across our northern zones when compared to our southern zones.

Snow levels will likely hover in the 4000-5000 ft range this morning before dropping into the 2000-3000 ft range later this afternoon and evening. Thus, the main winter weather impacts at the Cascade passes will likely hold off until late this morning/midday when snow levels fall behind the cold front. Snowfall amounts in the Cascades do not appear overly impressive with this storm system and will likely be marginal for an advisory at pass level. Nonetheless, the rapidly falling snow levels this afternoon and evening will likely enable to snow to stick rapidly under any heavier or more persistent showers.

Models remain in good agreement shortwave ridging will build northward over the far eastern Pacific and Pacific Northwest rapidly tonight and Monday. This will result in decreasing showers during this time with most of the area likely drying out entirely by Monday afternoon or Monday evening. Thereafter, shortwave ridging more squarely centered over the region will allow areas of late night and morning valley fog to give to mostly sunny skies Tuesday. High temperatures will rebound to near or slightly above average levels on Tuesday.

Operational models continue to suggest the shortwave ridge over the region on Tuesday will flatten late in the day and allow a weakening front to push southeastward towards the region Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. The front appears likely to stall out across our northwestern zones Tuesday night before dissipating entirely early Wednesday. Given lift and moisture will likely be limited to the atmosphere below 750mb, this continues to look like it will end up a high PoP, low QPF event along our north coast. NBM guidance has struggled to capture these type of events on several occasions over the past year so opted to trend PoPs a bit higher than NBM guidance across our northwestern zones Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

Models are then in good agreement shortwave ridging will build back over the eastern Pacific and Pacific Northwest Wednesday. This will result in a return to areas of morning valley fog giving way to sunshine and mild temperatures Wednesday.

It should be noted that the low pressure moving between Vancouver Island and Haida Gwaii early this morning will produce a 20-25ft west-northwesterly swell that will impact our coastline this afternoon and evening. This will bring a threat of high surf and sneaker waves to our today and tonight. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . Models and their ensembles are in good agreement shortwave ridging will be the dominant feature over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night through Friday. This will bring predominantly dry conditions, morning valley fog in spots and mild temperatures. In fact, temperatures appear likely to top out in the upper 50s to low 60s next Thursday and Friday. Models and their ensembles suggest a more active weather pattern will try to take hold next weekend as a shortwave trough slides into the ridge. However, there are still substantial differences in how this will play out among the models with some scenarios keeping us dry through the weekend while many others result in valley rain and high mountain snow next weekend. NBM PoPs were maintained as it seems to capture the uncertainty well. /Neuman

AVIATION. Light rain continues to spread inland early this morning with generally VFR inland and MVFR to LIFR at the coast. The cold front is timed to reach the coast around 14-16Z and inland 16-19Z with northern areas with the earlier timing. Model guidance indicating the lower conditions at the coast will improve to VFR behind the cold front. For inland locations, guidance indicating occasional MVFR is likely for a few hours with the front. Satellite and models show drier more unstable air behind the front so expect conditions to be VFR behind the front. Also with the unstable air mass will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly to the north coast and over southwest WA from near the Columbia River northward. Gusty northwest winds will develop at the coast behind the front and will likely last into early evening before diminishing, while gusty southwest winds will affect the inland locations. Expect VFR conditions to continue into tonight

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR conditions prevailing through the day, but expect a good chance for MVFR conditions from about 15Z to 19Z. South to southwest winds will pickup and may gust to around 25 kt through 00Z Mon or so.

MARINE. Gale force winds looking likely today for the waters north of Cascade Head. Coastal and buoy obs at 3 am showing south wind gusts to 33 kt. Wind should switch to west then northwest this morning after the cold front moves through and continue to gust to 35 kt into the early evening. This is all brought about by a deep low heading to Vancouver Island with the associated front trailing into the WA & OR waters.

Swell generation occurring not too far offshore is producing a fresh swell that will move into the waters this afternoon. Expect seas to peak around 18 to 23 ft late this afternoon. The higher waves will be over the northern zones. Spectral wave guides for buoy-29 are indicating seas will reach 22 ft at 14 sec around 4 pm and fall below 20 ft around 10 pm tonight. Winds and seas will drop through Monday reaching sub-SCA criteria by Monday night. /mh -BPhillips

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to midnight PST Sunday night for North Oregon Coast.

WA . High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to midnight PST Sunday night for South Washington Coast.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST Sunday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 1 AM to 6 PM PST Sunday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST Monday for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Sunday for Columbia River Bar.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nm offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 5 mi49 min W 23 G 31 47°F 47°F1015.2 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 21 mi55 min W 30 G 38 46°F 47°F1014 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 22 mi31 min 48°F12 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 30 mi31 min 47°F10 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 31 mi43 min W 13 G 24 45°F 43°F1017.4 hPa
46099 41 mi101 min W 21 46°F 48°F1011.5 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 44 mi41 min W 29 G 35 48°F 48°F13 ft1016.4 hPa (+3.6)38°F

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA24 mi38 minW 22 G 2510.00 miOvercast and Breezy45°F37°F77%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE4E3SE3W5W9W9W8W7W8W7W4CalmW4SW6SW6SW6S6SE4S6S4S11W17
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2 days agoE11E9E9E10E8E7E5W5NW4CalmE3CalmE5CalmE6E7E5E4E5E5E6E6CalmE5

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Center, Palix River, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Bay Center
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:29 AM PST     9.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:20 AM PST     3.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:33 AM PST     New Moon
Sun -- 07:36 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:59 PM PST     9.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:52 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:01 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:49 PM PST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8998.37.25.74.13.13.44.66.27.99.29.79.38.26.54.62.610.61.53.15.1

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:28 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:28 AM PST     -2.38 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:07 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:20 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:33 AM PST     New Moon
Sun -- 07:38 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:36 AM PST     1.82 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:01 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:37 PM PST     -3.46 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:52 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:01 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:54 PM PST     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:19 PM PST     2.38 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.90.6-0.7-1.7-2.3-2.3-1.5-0.40.71.41.81.81.30-1.5-2.6-3.3-3.4-2.6-1.30.11.322.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.