Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Newberry, MI

UPDATE
Issued at 957 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

The forecast remains on track tonight. Light rain/snow showers are largely tapering off tonight as low pressure continues to track east of Lake Superior. Subsidence behind this is leading to clearing skies from west to east across the UP. However, would not be surprised to see some fog forming late tonight given ample low-level moisture and decreasing winds.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb shortwave over the upper Great Lakes which moves out of the area tonight. A shortwave over the northern Rockies will head into the northern plains by 12z Tue.
As the shortwave moves away from the area, the pcpn should slowly come to an end, first in the south and west. This is covered well in the going forecast. A rain/snow mix over the west will come to an end this evening with little accumulation. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Positive height anomalies over the east and central CONUS build behind the departing trough Tuesday morning. This pattern will persist through much of the coming week and into the following weekend, allowing for a period of above normal temperatures and chances for rain showers via embedded shortwaves. Along with rising temperatures, ongoing snowmelt will continue resulting in water level rises in rivers and streams.

An elongated shortwave over the High Plains Tuesday afternoon drives weak isentropic upglide/WAA into the Upper Midwest, which may result in a few light rain showers over the west half by Tuesday PM; however, a dry low level airmass will work to hinder precip from reaching the ground. Both the latest LREF/NBM ensembles project low probabilities (<20%) for 6hr measurable QPF. Some uncertainty still remains on if precip will be able to develop overnight into the central and east half, so have carried some slight chance PoPs then.
As the shortwave continues north of the UP Wednesday/Thursday and south to southwest return flow develops across the south-central CONUS, high temperatures will soar into the 60s area wide save for 50s in the Keweenaw and nearby lakeshores.

Measurable rainfall returns Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave develops off the Front Range, moving northeast into Great Lakes. Predictability remains rather low at the moment as spread in deterministic guidance is fairly high on the track/timing of the developing warm front in the vicinity of the UP Thursday, as well as the progression of the system through the OH River Valley Friday.
Further into the weekend, there is modest agreement that Sat/Sun will be pleasant days under high pressure. Warmer than normal temps continue into the extended. This is highlighted well by favorable probabilities in the CPC days 6-14 outlook.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 115 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Skies are clearing out tonight, with terminals generally returning to VFR. However, patchy fog is already developing around IWD, which should bring MVFR and eventually IFR restrictions through the second half of the night. With somewhat stronger wind speeds at CMX and SAW hanging on through the early morning hours, fog may be a little harder to come by; have decided to handle this with a TEMPO group for IFR fog for the pre dawn hours. Otherwise, mainly VFR is expected the rest of the day Tuesday before a weak wave moving through causes ceilings to lower again Tuesday evening. A brief period of MVFR restrictions is expected at IWD.

MARINE
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Gusty northwest winds up to 30 knots persist tonight behind a departing low pressure, building waves in the east-central lake between 5-10 ft. In the wake of the low pressure system, northwest winds settle below 20 kts over the western third by this evening.
The remainder of the lake gradually settles below 20 kts from west to east through mid Tuesday morning. Winds look to remain 20 kts or less the remainder of the forecast as either high pressure or weak low pressures pass by the area.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.