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LSZ250 737 Pm Edt Thu Oct 5 2023
.strong Thunderstorms over the waters...
the areas affected include... Grand marais to whitefish point mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Lake superior from grand marais mi to whitefish point mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border... Munising to grand marais mi...
at 737 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 25 nm north of grand sable dunes to near pictured rocks national lakeshore, moving northeast at 25 knots.
locations impacted include... Grand sable dunes and pictured rocks national lakeshore.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
this strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds to around 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
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lat...lon 4663 8615 4655 8636 4707 8636 4736 8603 4728 8584 4663 8586

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 090503 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1203 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SHORT TERM
(The rest of this afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 133 PM EST FRI DEC 8 2023

Key Messages: -Warm this afternoon. Some spots may flirt with 50F again, especially over the west. Some records may also be broken.
-Rain could be seen over the west-central U.P. by early Saturday morning.

We are already seeing another warm day across our area today as spots across Upper Michigan have already reported temperatures up to 50F as of 1PM EST. While mostly cloudy conditions will somewhat limit temperatures from getting much warmer across the central and east, a hole in the cloud cover currently moving over the western U.P. (as seen by satellite imagery) will likely increase temperatures a couple of degrees from what we are seeing as of the time of this writing. Therefore, there may be quite a few spots over the western U.P. that get above 50F this afternoon before cloud cover over northwestern Wisconsin moves in later this afternoon.
Thus, I'm confident (80 to 90% certain) that some high temperature records will be broken today, particularly over the west.

Expect fairly mild temperatures tonight as mostly cloudy skies dominate. As a low pressure lifts from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Lake Michigan tonight into Saturday morning, we may see some rainfall starting to fall across our west-central area before dawn tomorrow.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 431 PM EST FRI DEC 8 2023

Key messages:

- No widespread, significant system snowfalls across Upper MI thru next week.
- Quick-moving low pressure system brings rain and some snow Saturday. Snow potential greatest in a narrow swath over a portion of the west and central U.P., with 1-2" likely and possibly isolated amounts near 3" but should stay sub-advisory - 3 to 6 inches of lake enhanced and lake effect snow is likely (at least 60% chance) for areas favored by nw winds Saturday night into Sunday, greatest over higher western terrain areas.
- Above normal temps to prevail on most days through next week with warmth peaking again late next week.

Beginning Saturday, 12z models coming into better agreement on track of sfc low lifting north through the Central Plains and then across the eastern U.P. Saturday afternoon. Relatively compact pcpn shield associated with the wave suggests best pcpn will stay over central and eastern UP where I will continue with the categorical pops of 80% or higher with a sharp drop in pops over far western Upper MI where little system pcpn is expected Saturday. Given the antecedent warmth over the area, unphased waves and positive tilt of the mid-level trof, expect most of the pcpn with the first wave to be in the form of rain on Sat, especially east half. However, CAMs suggest there could be 1-2" of snow over central portions of Upper MI (Baraga/western Marquette/Iron/Dickinson counties) and perhaps higher amounts of 2- 4" in a stronger fgen/deformation band if the HRRR and NSSLWRF solutions verify. If the stronger band develops per HRRR and NSSLWRF then travel impacts would also be expected on Saturday.

To the w, another shortwave will support a sharpening sfc trof that will sweep into western Upper MI late aftn/early evening. 850mb temps falling blo -4C will support lake enhancement. Wetbulb zero heights above 700ft AGL suggest some rain initially at low elevations near the lake as this next batch of pcpn initially arrives/develops. Snow will become steadier during the evening as the trof/wind shift passes. Fcst soundings don't show much of a favorable overlap of the upward motion with the DGZ, and that combined with temps around freezing may hold snow accumulations down during the period of best forcing in the evening. Still, it's looking more and more like a potential of 3-6 inches in the usual highest terrain areas, greatest west higher terrain where a WSW advisory may be needed. The trof will shift e thru Sat night, changing lake enhanced rain/snow to snow east. Accumulations e will be lower than over the w.

Deeper moisture departs from w to e late Sat night thru Sun morning, marking a transition to pure nw flow LES under 850mb temps of -10 to -12C. Fcst soundings indicate the DGZ will be near the top of the convective layer and largely above the best upward motion, so SLRs will be held down a bit. With inversions at around 4kft w, LES will be light. To the e, inversions upwards of 6-7kft will support better LES and 1-3 inch snow accumulations on Sun. The lingering LES will end w to e Sun night into early Mon morning with increased ridging and associated drying/subsidence.

Next shortwave will dive se into northern Ontario and Upper MI Mon night. WAA/isentropic ascent ahead of this wave should lead to some -sn developing across the n and e Mon night, followed by wnw flow LES for Tue as 850mb temps dive toward -16C. Drier air mass flowing into the area with the CAA will limit LES intensity as will the quick passage of the 850mb thermal trof, but snow accumulations in the 1-3 inch range are certainly a possibility. It will be a blustery day on Tue as well with gusts 20-30mph, perhaps near 40 mph at times over the Keweenaw.

A warming and dry period will set in Wed thru the end of the work week as westerlies retreat n and ridging takes hold. Warmth should peak on Thu with high temps back into the low/mid 40s F.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1203 AM EST SAT DEC 9 2023

Flight categories will hover around the MVFR/VFR mark early this morning at IWD and CMX. SAW, however, will predominantly be MVFR as a low pressure system approaches Lake Michigan. All TAF sites will deteriorate further though during the Sat 12-14Z time frame as that system moves into the area, spreading snow and then a rain/snow mix across the TAF sites. Flight retrictions will be most impactful at SAW where visibilities and cigs will dip into the LIFR range.
Elsewhere, IWD and CMX should hold steady at IFR. Do not expect much improvement though in this TAF period. In addition, winds will increase out of the northwest at IWD and CMX this evening with gusts up to 24 kts. Will not, however, mention any blowing snow at CMX due to the heaviness of this snow.

MARINE
(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 431 PM EST FRI DEC 8 2023

With low pres tracking into northern Ontario, expect southerly winds 20 to 30 knots to becoming sw tonight across Lake Superior. Some brief gale force gusts are possible from Grand Marais Mi to Whitefish Pt into early evening. SW winds will settle back to blo 20kt after midnight tonight thru Sat morning. A cold front will then sweep across Lake Superior late Sat aftn and night, bringing a wind shift to the nw 20-30kt. There is a 40-60pct chance of low end 35- 40kt gales, with the greatest chc near the MN n shore to across the tip of the Keweenaw and from Grand Marais to Whitefish Pt. Winds will slowly subside on Sun with the risk of gales over by midday Sunday. Expect winds under 25kt late Sun aftn and mostly under 20kt Sun night. Another cold front approaching on Mon will cause sw winds to ramp up to 20-30kt by late aftn, strongest w half where low-end gale gusts could be possible. With passage of the front, there is a high probability (at least 90pct) of w gales 35-40kt shifting to the wnw Mon night and Tue.

CLIMATE
Issued at 536 AM EST FRI DEC 8 2023

For WFO Marquette in Negaunee Township:

Record high max temp Dec 8: 44F (1984)

Record high min temp Dec 8: 33F (2015)
Dec 9: 32F (2015)

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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