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LSZ250 Expires:202405122045;;097577 Fzus73 Kmqt 122012 Mwsmqt
marine weather statement national weather service marquette mi 412 pm edt Sun may 12 2024
lsz249-250-266-122045- 412 pm edt Sun may 12 2024
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters of lake superior between marquette and munising just north of the lakeshore - .
the areas affected include - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Marquette to munising mi - . Munising to grand marais mi - .
at 411 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located near au train island, or near shelter bay, moving east at 25 knots.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
&&
lat - .lon 4652 8642 4642 8658 4643 8665 4642 8665 4650 8712 4665 8698 4667 8640

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 191113 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 713 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Borderline elevated fire weather conditions today with warm and very dry conditions, but winds on the lighter side.

- Leading edge of next round of showers could reach into the far western U.P. toward sunrise Monday. Then, periods of showers Monday through late week, but mainly focused on Monday and also late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

- A windy day possible on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Today, sfc high pres ridging and an associated very dry air mass will build into the Upper Great Lakes in the wake of last night's frontal passage. Full sun thru the morning will give way to thickening mid/high clouds arriving from the w in the mid-late afternoon ahead of a weak shortwave rippling thru the mid-level ridge. Strong insolation will result in deep mixing into extremely dry mid-levels. NAM soundings show late morning dewpoints at 800mb/~5kft AGL ranging from -20 to -40C, though this is the low end of the model guidance. Even though moisture aloft does increase during the afternoon, mixing potential still supports sfc dewpoints falling thru the 30s F. Some locations will see upper 20s F. The low dewpoint potential is also evident thru the local mixed dewpoint tool and simply in some of the raw model guidance, which the HRRR appears to capture quite well. With high temps fcst in the mid/upper 70s F across the interior, the low dewpoints will drive RH down to around 20pct across much of the interior of Upper MI this afternoon.
The good news is winds will be on the lighter side, though a little higher than previously expected. Sustained winds will be around 10 mph with gusts to around 15 mph. Winds will be strongest across the Keweenaw where gusts to around 25mph are possible. Lake breeze development should help limit fire wx concerns close to the Great Lakes shorelines due to cooling conditions (temps falling into the 60s F), and higher dwpts, resulting in higher RH.

Tonight, the next significant shortwave and rainmaker, now over the SW U.S., will be approaching through the Central Plains and Upper Midwest late tonight. Increasing q-vector convergence and isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave could lead to some showers forming over the far western U.P. around sunrise Monday morning. Model soundings indicate that dry low-levels should keep much of the rest of the U.P. dry through tonight. Expect min temps in the upper 40s to around 50F. under mostly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 536 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

An active pattern will continue across the U.S. during this week.
Troffing currently over western Canada into the northern U.S.
Rockies will amplify over the next couple of days, leading to western Canada/western U.S. troffing this week. A series of shortwaves dropping into this trof from the N Pacific will then eject e and ne across the U.S., supporting the active pattern. For Upper MI, the result will be several opportunities of rainfall this week. The next period of rainfall occurs late tonight thru Mon evening, the second Tue aftn into Wed, possibly lingering into Thu, associated with the strongest low pres of the week, and finally the third at some point Fri-Sun. Models are in overall good agreement thru midweek. Timing of the last system is most uncertain, but that's expected given the farther time range out in the model runs.
That said, the spread has narrowed a little over the last 12hrs of model runs. So, expectation is for overall above normal pcpn across Upper MI over the next 7 days. This will work to ease still lingering drought over portions of western Upper MI where, per the 5/16 U.S. Drought Monitor, severe drought was still indicated, centered around the Porcupine Mtns, and also in eastern Upper MI where moderate drought was still indicated from eastern Delta to western Mackinac counties. As for temps, readings will be around normal to above normal early this week, warmest today. Temps will then trend downward to blo normal Thu/Fri, due to the flow around the deep low that passes across the area midweek. A return toward normal expected over the weekend. Looking farther ahead, ensemble guidance suggests that the pattern of this week will break down next week as western N America troffing transitions to ridging, bringing an end to the train of shortwaves tracking e and ne to the Great Lakes. The western ridging will also force eastern troffing, so temps for Upper MI will likely be around normal to a little blo normal next week with the cooler weather more likely during the last half of the week.

Beginning Mon/Mon night, out of the amplifying mid-level trof over the western CONUS, next shortwave will lift to the Upper Great Lakes on Mon, accompanied by a surge of precipitable water to ~200pct of normal. This increase in moisture along with increasing isentropic ascent will lead to shra/isold tsra, a widespread wetting rain, across much of the fcst area. One recent model trend is for much more pronounced upper diffluence over western Upper MI due to the right entrance of 110kt upper jet across northern Ontario into Quebec. This results in an increase in qpf over the w compared to previous fcst. 00z EPS now has the probability of at least 0.5 inches of rainfall highest over the w at 50-80pct. Probability ranges down to 20-40pct e. Pcpn will diminish/end from nw to se in the aftn/evening. There is disagreement on how quickly the shra exit the area Mon night, but trends seem to support shifting the shra out of the area overnight. Abundant low-level moisture/stratus may linger into Tue morning. Some fog and maybe patchy -dz are a possibility as well. With the clouds and shra on Mon, high temps were knocked down at least a few degrees over the area compared to previous fcst. Expect highs mostly low/mid 60s w and central to around 70F e where rain begins latest.

After a period of dry weather late Mon night thru at least Tue morning, a notably stronger shortwave ejecting from the western trof will strengthen as it reaches the Upper Mississippi Valley Tue night, resulting in healthy 12hr 500mb height falls of 150m. At the sfc, associated low pres will deepen to around 990mb as it approaches and then lifts across or just w of Lake Superior on Wed.
While the low track passing to the w of Upper MI will support the widest coverage of heaviest rainfall to the w of Upper MI, mdt to locally hvy rainfall will still be possible across the fcst area during the period of strong isentropic ascent/strong 850mb theta-e advection to the e of the low Tue night. Precipitable water increases to ~200pct of normal as well. Expect widespread shra and some tsra across the area. EPS probabilities show a 20-60pct chc of at least a half inch of rainfall from this system with the highest probabilities se and w. Shra coverage will diminish significantly for Wed. Some areas may slip in dry weather for much of or all of the day, especially e half. Winds may become an issue. ECMWF EFI/shift of tales has been increasing for Wed with Upper MI mostly in the 0.8 to 0.9 range now, suggesting a potentially very unusual wind event for this time of year based on last 20 years of model climate. Median wind gusts from the EPS for Wed are mostly 40-45mph across the fcst area. While winds for this fcst were increased from what NBM indicates, they are not as high as the median from the EPS.
Will be a time period to reevaluate for higher winds in later fcsts.

As the low lifts across northern Ontario on Thu, isold/sct shra will remain possible under lingering cool, cyclonic flow. Thu should be the coolest day of the week with highs in the lwr 50s to the lwr 60s F warmest s central. Timing shra potential Fri-Sun is uncertain. For now, of the 3 days, Fri and Sun have the better shot at being dry days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 713 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the fcst period.

MARINE
Issued at 536 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

With low pres over northern Ontario and high pres setting up over the western Great Lakes today, sw winds across the w half of Lake Superior will gust up to 20-25kt, strongest btwn Isle Royale and the Keweenaw. Winds will diminish to under 15kt across the eastern lake today. Winds will settle back to under 15kt lakewide tonight, and will be under 20kt Mon/Mon night. Deepening low pres will then lift toward western Lake Superior, reaching the lake Wed morning. Expect e to ne winds to ramp up as the low approaches. NE winds will increase to 25-30kt over western Lake Superior by Tue evening. Winds increase further Tue night. Probabilistic guidance indicates a 50-80 percent chance of reaching gale gusts Tue night into Wed morning across w and central Lake Superior. As the low lifts n of the lake Wed/Wed night, 20-30kt winds will become southerly then westerly.
Probabilistic guidance indicates at 30-60pct chance of gale gusts continuing into Wed evening. It is noted that some of the models that track a deep low just w of Lake Superior into northern Ontario show higher end westerly gales across the lake Wed into Wed night, especially across the w half. Will be something to monitor. Winds will gradually diminish on Thu.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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