Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Willapa, WA

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willapa, WA

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Area Discussion for - Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 050314 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 815 PM PDT Sun Jun 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Warm and dry weather continues through the weekend and into the start of the upcoming week. Currently, the hottest days are expected Tuesday with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s and Wednesday with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s. A gradual cooling trend back to the low 80s and upper 70s for the latter half of next week.

DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...Upper flow over the Cascades has become a touch southerly this evening. With the instability over the southern Oregon has lifted up against the Cascades of Lane County, with some high-based showers and a few thunderstorms. Most of this has been along and just east of the Cascades Crest. But, can not rule out one or two drifting north along the west side for a bit this evening. Web cameras show not much punch with these showers and thunderstorms, through may have just some locally gusty winds under the heavier ones. Even so, will keep small pops (20 pct) for a shower or thunderstorms over the Cascades through midnight. Otherwise, rest of the discussion remains on track, with no changes.

Persistent southwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest as a deep upper low off the British Columbia coast near Haida Gwaii and an expansive ridge of high pressure over much of the CONUS are the two dominant synoptic features. A secondary feature is an upper low near central California coast. Will see continued warming through Tuesday as the low over B.C. lifts northward allowing 500 mb heights to rise over the Pacific Northwest. This will result in daytime highs in the low to mid 80s on Monday and peaking in the low to mid 90s on Tuesday for inland locations. Coastal areas look to remain seasonably mild with daytime highs in the 60s for the next week as onshore flow brings a continued marine influence. Expect to see moderate heat risk concerns at this time as the hottest temperatures are limited mainly to Tuesday, even as overnight lows will cool into the 50s. Highs could reach the upper 80s again on Wednesday, but a gradual cooling trend back towards the low 80s and upper 70s for the latter half of next week.

Breezy north/northwest winds will develop each afternoon as surface high pressure offshore and a strengthening inland thermal trough tightens onshore gradients t, through Wednesday. More details on this in the Fire Weather section.

Dry weather continues through the week. Low chances for showers along the Lane county Casacdes as some moisture and instability on the periphery of the upper low off central California coast clips the area. Better chances for showers by mid-week over the Cascades as the upper low over California starts to drift northward towards the region.
Increased instability may be enough to trigger thunderstorms over the Lane County Cascades.

FIRE WEATHER
Ongoing warming and drying trend coupled with expected breezy conditions over the next few days will warrant close monitoring of fire weather conditions, particularly across the Willamette Valley and adjacent foothills of the Cascades and Coast Range. Ensemble guidance shows gusts in the 20-35 mph range today and Monday. In addition expect decreased humidity recovery tonight and Monday night as dry northerly flow develops. Winds ease Tuesday but the air mass remains dry as light offshore flow develops.

NBM deterministic has been a little too high with minimum RH recently. Comparing the raw output of various models against the deterministic NBM, the NBM has been on the higher end within spread of these models, so feel a lower min RH (to around 20 percent for areas away from the coast for Monday and Tuesday) is warranted.

Not expecting widespread critical fire weather thresholds to be met at this time. Ignition of dry fine fuels such as grass could be an issue. /mh /42

AVIATION
VFR across the region, tonight into Monday, with locally breezy north winds inland this evening, and along the coast through midnight.

Main issue will be the scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Cascades from Mount Jefferson southward into northern California.
Most of these will hug the Cascades crest, with no impacts to west.
Generally, CIGS under these still VFR, around 8000 to 10000 ft.
Think showers/tstorms will gradually dissipate by midnight, but the convective debris clouds will continue to lift north along/over the Cascades overnight.

For detailed Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: http://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through Monday. Gusty north to northwest winds will ease between 06Z and 08Z, but pick up again later Mon am.

MARINE
Surface high pressure remains anchored off the Washington coast, while strong thermal low pressure hugs the south Oregon coast into northwest California. This will maintain tight pressure gradients into Monday with gusty northerly winds continuing through Monday. Gale force wind gusts up to 35 to 40 kts are forecast through early Monday across the coastal waters, while winds off much of the northern and central Oregon coast remain elevated through Monday evening. After the strongest winds decrease, gusty winds up to 25 to 30 kts will continue into Tuesday.

While base swell is not all that much, seas will mainly be wind wave driven. Combined seas are expected to run 7 to 11 ft through Monday. Again, lots of wind energy, so expect rather choppy and steep seas. Seas subside on Tuesday into Wednesday, running 4 to 6 ft. /DH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT Monday night for Columbia River Bar.

Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Monday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to midnight PDT Monday night for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning until midnight PDT Monday night for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather OR to Florence OR out 10 NM.Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather OR to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Toke Point, WA

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

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Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Willapa City, Willapa River, Washington

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