Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Willapa, WA

DISCUSSION
Now through Tuesday...Largely zonal flow aloft beneath the base of an upper-level trough moving inland through British Columbia has supported more widespread low cloud cover this morning. Satellite trends depict rapid clearing and mostly sunny skies are expected today across the region, save perhaps the far-northern Oregon and south Washington coasts. Another upper trough or closed low moving into British Columbia this weekend will see flow aloft turn southwesterly, resulting in only minor changes to the sensible weather locally, namely a farther inland penetration and delayed clearing of overnight and morning cloud cover. As such, seasonable weather will continue with afternoon high temperatures within a few degrees of 80F inland and in the low to mid 60s along the coast, overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, and largely dry conditions. The only exception may be areas of mist or drizzle along the coast and Coast Range during the early morning hours when marine stratus cover is at its thickest.

Early next week, there is high confidence that broad upper ridging will develop over the Central Plains, pushing heights aloft higher and favoring a warming trend locally. Most-likely high temperatures through the first half of next week look to reach the mid to upper 80s inland and mid 60s to near 70 degrees along the coast, while overnight lows similarly push a few degrees warmer into the 50s across the region. This combination of temperatures continues to support Minor HeatRisk across the majority of the region with isolated areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Portland/Vancouver metro and through the Columbia Gorge.
There remains a broad region from Salem north through the Lower Cowlitz Valley and east along the I-84 corridor through the Gorge where there is a 20-50% chance of Moderate HeatRisk on both Monday and Tuesday if forecast temperatures trend warmer, with the highest likelihood in the Lower Tualatin Valley (Beaverton, Tigard, Tualatin) and neighboring portions of Multnomah and Clackamas Counties (Portland, Wilsonville).
Chances for Major HeatRisk are 5% or less across the region.
Uncertainty in the temperature forecast increases beyond midweek as consensus is relatively low in the long-term evolution of the strong upper ridge. Nonetheless, chances for rain remain minimal through the period. -36

AVIATION
Relatively light west to northwest flow aloft today as a broad upper level trough persists over the region.
Predominately VFR conditions are expected for inland terminals through much of the TAF period, as there is currently just a 10-20% chance for stratus to redevelop tomorrow morning. Any lingering stratus is expected to scatter out by 21z this afternoon. Coastal locations are more likely to see marine stratus push back onshore after 06-10z Thursday with around a 30-40% chance of IFR conditions developing.

Northwest winds are expected to increase this afternoon to around 10-15 kt, while gusts up to 25 kt will be possible along the central Oregon coast.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR expected with few lingering clouds this afternoon. Only around a 10% chance of MVFR stratus redeveloping after 12z Thu. Northwest winds are expected to increase to around 10-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible between 00-06z Thu. /DH

MARINE
High pressure will maintain north to northwesterly winds across the coastal waters through the week. Winds generally remain around 15 kt or less, though pressure gradients are expected to tighten later this afternoon and evening producing gusts up to 25 kt near the central Oregon coast. Thus, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters south of Cape Foulweather between 3 PM today and 2 AM tonight.
Isolated gusts up to 20-22 kt will also be possible south of Cape Falcon.

Conditions ease slightly on Thursday, and moreso on Friday, as a weak front approaches the waters. Seas are expected to remain around 4 to 6 ft as relatively benign conditions persist through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. /DH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ253-273.