Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Willapa, WA

SHORT TERM
Now through Sunday Night...A deep and persistent upper level trough centered near the Alaska Panhandle maintains robust onshore flow across the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. Visible satellite shows a dense blanket of stratus west of the Cascades which has been stubborn to erode as of early afternoon, holding temperatures down in the upper 50s through the interior valleys of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Have adjusted temperatures downward for the remainder of the day as most locations will struggle to get above the low 60s given the abundant cloud cover in place. A weak upper level disturbance crossing the central OR Cascades is supporting a few light radar echoes along and east of the crest, but expect little if any rainfall from these through this evening.

Expect only minor changes in conditions over the next few days as onshore flow persists over the region and promotes dry weather with seasonable temperatures. Highs should be closer to the low 70s in the interior valleys on Saturday as long as morning stratus is able to scatter out more efficiently than today, but will have to keep an eye on forecast highs for Saturday depending on observational trends. Have confidence in a bit more sunshine materializing by Sunday as the marine stratus intrusion should be a bit weaker owing to decreasing onshore pressure gradients and a shallower marine layer. As such, modest 500 mb height rises and 850 mb temps climbing above 10C should allow highs in the inland valleys to reach the upper 70s on Sunday afternoon, with around 40-50% chance to break 80 from Portland to Salem and a 25-30% chance in the Eugene area.
The onshore flow regime will continue to promote breezy conditions through the Gorge this weekend, with winds gusting as high as 25 mph in the western and central Gorge each afternoon. /CB


LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...Inland highs will remain in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees for Monday and Tuesday while onshore flow and marine layer influences keep coastal communities in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Precipitation chances continue to dwindle for Monday as NBM guidance now keeps the area completely dry until Monday night, with chances then confined to coastal areas and parts of southwest Washington through Tuesday. Wednesday will bring the best chance for rain inland as a shortwave trough looks to clip the northern half of the area, The bulk of ensemble members depict at least some measurable rainfall for Portland in this timeframe, but the probability to reach a even a tenth of an inch remains around 10% for Portland and below 5% from Salem to Eugene. Coastal areas and the Cowlitz Valley of SW WA will see a roughly 20-40% chance for a tenth of an inch of rain through mid next week.
High temperatures level off into the low to mid 70s in the interior valleys beyond Wednesday in the wake of the trough.

Models hint at better chances for more substantial rainfall across the area late next week as ensemble clusters show decent agreement on deeper upper level troughing shifting closer to the Pacific Northwest by the weekend. Confidence remains low as minor differences in the strength and position of the trough could have large implications on the forecast, but the synoptic pattern at least looks broadly supportive of a more showery regime across the region late in the period. Stay tuned. /CB

AVIATION
Predominately VFR conditions with CIGS oscillating between FL035 and FL045 across the airspace. This is occurring thanks to a broad upper level trough that continues to slowly push eastward. North/northwest flow will persist with winds around 10 kt along the coast and 5-8 kt inland. Gusty winds return around 06Z Saturday with gusts up to 20 kt expected. Afterwards, winds subside and become light and variable. The reduction in wind could also result in lowering clouds across the airspace, but still expecting generally VFR conditions to persist through the remainder of the TAF period.

*KTTD ASOS is currently INOP except for altimeter and will be AMD NOT SKED.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions with CIGS oscillating between FL035 and FL045 and north/northwest winds generally less than 10 kt. However, could see winds increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt around 00Z Saturday. Winds become light and variable around 06Z-08Z Saturday and could result in lowering clouds across the airspace, but still expecting VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period. /42

MARINE
North/northwesterly flow continues as a a broad, upper level trough pushes inland through today. Winds generally 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt through this evening. Seas around 7 ft at 8 seconds. This will result in steep and choppy conditions at times across all waters through this evening. So, will maintain the current Small Craft Advisories. Also, conditions are marginal so SCA conditions may not be met at times. Seas subsiding to around 3 to 5 ft by Saturday morning at 8 seconds with winds remaining north/northwest. /42-Batz

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251>253-271>273.