Friday, September20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Bend, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:19PM Friday September 20, 2019 1:09 PM PDT (20:09 UTC) Moonrise 9:49PMMoonset 12:31PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 858 am pdt Fri sep 20 2019 combined seas 4 to 6 ft. Bar conditions light. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 845 am and 915 pm today and 945 am Saturday.
PZZ100 858 Am Pdt Fri Sep 20 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Onshore flow will prevail today with high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. A frontal system will approach the area Saturday, then move inland Sunday. Another weak frontal system will move through the area around Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Bend, WA
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location: 46.69, -123.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 201614
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
915 am pdt Fri sep 20 2019

Synopsis A weak frontal system will bring plenty of clouds and
some spotty light rain to SW washington and NW oregon today, with
temperatures remaining a little below normal. High pressure will
likely result in less clouds and slightly warmer temps Saturday,
especially in the afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase again
Saturday night, ahead of a cold front that will spread more rain
across the forecast area Sunday. After what may be the coolest night
so far this season Sunday night, dry and mild weather is likely
Monday. Additional frontal systems may bring more wet weather later
in the week.

Short term Today through Sunday... No changes. Previous discussion
follows. A weak warm front aloft has been providing just enough lift
overnight to squeeze out some light rain, primarily east of
interstate 5. This area of mid-level frontogenesis is already moving
into the cascades early this morning, shifting the better rain
chances eastward. While the best forcing aloft races eastward today,
a few showers will still be possible in shallow instability as
what's left of the surface cold front moves onshore today, similar
to what's depicted by the 06z NAM 4 km nest model.

Instability appears to be far too shallow for any thunderstorms
today.

Higher pressure will build into the region tonight, decreasing the
chance of showers for most of the forecast area. However, the
lingering moist low-level air mass combined with onshore flow may
still lead to some showers overnight in the S wa cascades and across
the western columbia gorge. Despite some cloud cover, valley fog will
be possible tonight Sat morning as ground moisture remains quite high
for september. Morning fog low clouds should give way to at least
some sunbreaks Saturday afternoon, potentially allowing temperatures
to break into the 70s for the inland valleys.

Higher clouds will be on the increase from the north and west
Saturday night as our next frontal system approaches from the
pacific. Rain associated with this system will likely begin to spread
onshore before dawn Sunday, then across the forecast area during the
day Sunday. Rainfall amounts appear modest with this system compared
to the last two, with most of the jet energy punching into the back
side of the associated upper trough rather than being ahead of it.

Post-frontal showers may become fairly strong Sunday afternoon as a
cold pool aloft of around -20 deg c at 500 mb moves through. However,
some models suggest fairly quick capping developing near 700 mb
Sunday evening, which should bring a quick end to any deeper
convection that may develop Sunday. Weagle

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday... No changes. Previous
discussion follows. Any deeper convection which develops behind our
cold front Sunday will likely come to a quick end Sunday night as
some models show a capping inversion developing near 700 mb.

Increasingly northerly flow aloft will probably result in some
clearing Sunday night, which may allow temperatures to fall deep
into the 40s for all but the more urban and coastal areas for Monday
morning. Indeed this may be the coolest night of the season so far,
and we undercut nbm temperatures by a few degrees, opting instead
for values closer to the 00z ec ensemble mean. High pressure, weak
mixing, and clearing skies may also raise the possibility of some
locally dense fog Sun night Mon morning. Once low clouds fog clear
Monday, there should be plenty of sunshine Monday afternoon with
temperatures rebounding to near 70 degrees for the inland valleys.

One challenge with the long term forecast lies in how the
numerical models are handling the ridge. In previous runs it has
been more amplified leading to clearer, drier and warmer weather.

However in more recent runs, several disturbances over canada have
begun to shift southward causing the ridge to flatten. The
flattening will increase a chance of several shortwaves passing
through the ridge and bringing spouts of rain on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Weagle muessle

Aviation Surface observations showed a mix ofVFR with
occasional MVFR ceilings across the region this morning, along with
a few light embedded showers. Expect ceilings to gradually lift most
areas, to predominantlyVFR conditions after 20z. The north coastal
areas may see areas of MVFR ceilings persist through the afternoon
and evening. Clouds are likely to fill in again tonight from the
north oregon coast and into the north willamette valley as a mix of
vfr and MVFR ceilings, while further south where clouds are less
likely to persist there is a chance for MVFR to ifr conditions to
develop in fog and low stratus after 05z-10z.

Kpdx and approaches... MostlyVFR conditions today and tonight, but
occasional MVFR ceilings can be expected through 18z to 20z today.

There is a chance for seeing clouds lower into MVFR category later
tonight after 09z, with a slight chance of seeing ifr conditions
developing late tonight as well.

Marine No changes. Previous discussion follows. Surface high
pressure centered offshore will result in northwest to north wind 15
kt or less over the waters through sat. Latest model runs in good
agreement with the next frontal system. However, last couple of runs
show slightly lower boundary layer wind speeds, with a short period
of 20-25 kt gusts with the front Sun morning. Slightly stronger post-
frontal northwest wind develops Sun afternoon and then weakens sun
night and mon. Stronger northwest wind returns mid to late next
week.

Seas 4 to 6 ft will be the norm through Sat evening. The cold
front Sunday will boost seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. Latest
guidance shows a west to northwest fetch developing in the ne
pacific Mon night or Tue and continuing into the latter half of
the week. Seas 11 to 14 ft are likely Tue through thu. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 8 mi63 min W 6 G 8 63°F 63°F1020 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 21 mi93 min W 5.1 G 6 61°F 62°F1019.7 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 25 mi39 min 62°F4 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi51 min WSW 1.9 G 5.1 64°F 67°F1019.8 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi39 min 63°F4 ft
46096 39 mi89 min 62°F

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA22 mi16 minWSW 88.00 miOvercast63°F59°F87%1020.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10SW8W11W10W8W8W6W9W8NW6W3CalmW5NW4CalmNW4NW3CalmCalmCalmW3SW5W7SW8
1 day agoW10NW8NW9W7W8W6CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E5CalmE5CalmE3E3E5E4E5CalmS3SW7
2 days agoS12SW7S10SW9SW5S5SW8S5SE4NE3E5NE4NE5E3E5E3E5E5E4NE4E5SE7SE4SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Mailboat Slough, Willapa River, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
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Fri -- 12:02 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:29 AM PDT     1.69 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:01 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:45 AM PDT     -1.84 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:54 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:33 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:24 PM PDT     1.71 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:33 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:13 PM PDT     -2.81 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:49 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.11.11.61.61.20.70-0.9-1.7-1.8-1.6-0.90.11.11.71.61.10.4-0.4-1.3-2.3-2.8-2.7-2.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.