Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 9:49 PM   Moonset 5:40 AM

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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 245 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 25 2024
combined seas 6 to 8 ft. Bar conditions moderate. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 630 pm this evening, 630 am Friday, and 700 pm Friday evening. The ebb Friday morning will be strong

PZZ100 245 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - A low pressure system and associated cold front is currently moving through the area tonight into tomorrow. A weak ridge will quickly move through Saturday morning before another front moves through Saturday evening. The active pattern continues into next week with several additional systems expected.

FXUS66 KPQR 252154 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 254 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showery and unsettled conditions continue through the weekend into next week as the Pacific Northwest remains under the influence of a rather progressive spring-time weather pattern. Beyond the more persistent chances for rainfall going forward snow levels are expected to drop near pass level(4500ft)
tonight into Friday although outside of slushy pavement accumulation most appreciable impacts stay above 5,500ft. The weather trends even a touch cooler early next week.


SHORT TERM
Tonight through Saturday night...This afternoon satellite and radar indicate the bulk of the steadier precipitation has begun to decrease and break to showers as the frontal boundary moves inland ad we quickly transition to post- frontal shower activity. With cooler air now filtering in aloft, snow levels will gradually decrease tonight bottoming out near 4,300-4,500ft come sunrise Friday morning. As a result wet snow likely returns to the higher pass areas like Santiam and Willamette, though that’s not to say snow or a rain/snow mix can’t mix down to the highest reaches of US-26 due to the more convective nature of the precipitation. Still, even at Santiam and Willamette pass the warm antecedent conditions will help to limit pavement accumulation with the bulk of the impacts occurring above 5,300-5,500ft. Due to the late season nature of the snowfall will maintain the current Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades through Friday evening. It’s worth mentioning as far as general precipitation chances are concerned through Friday, models maintain the most frequent showers over the coast range, Willapa Hills, and Cascades/Cascade foothills although the passage of the broader trough axis through western WA/OR Friday midday and afternoon likely servers to increase shower activity region-wide; even across the Willamette Valley and SW Washington.

Late Friday into Saturday the upper-level trough deepens and quickly progress southeastward into the four corners region of the Great Basin. We’ll briefly see upper-level heights rise over the region due to the passage of a weak transient shortwave ridge and both deterministic/ensemble guidance seem confident in a lull or at least noticeable decrease in lingering showers over the lower elevations, especially the central and southern Willamette Valley. However, the arrival of fast moving upper- level shortwave and frontal boundary extending southward off a parent low parked over the gulf of Alaska increases chances for precipitation Saturday afternoon into the evening. At least precipitation amounts don’t look particularly noteworthy due to the quick progression of the aforementioned feature on Saturday with an additional ~0.1” for the inland valleys and 0.3-0.5” for the coast range/Cascades. Once the front passes showers chances generally revert back to the elevated terrain features around western WA/OR the second half of the night. Snow levels Friday night through Saturday night continue to fluctuate between 4500-5500ft. -Schuldt

LONG TERM
Sunday through Wednesday night...For the early to middle portion of next week confidence is high the pattern stays rather progressive, with fronts moving off the northeast Pacific into the Pacific NW. During the late Sunday into Monday time period yet another front will push across the region with post-frontal showers on tap by at least the second half of Monday - model uncertainty is higher regarding the exact timing of this disturbance. Still a bit cooler than that expected for late April, with overall temperatures in the lowlands in the 50s to lower 60s. Snow levels will run 3000 to 4000 ft, which will maintain some snow at times for the higher terrain of the foothills, as well as most of the Cascades.

Few showers linger around region on Tuesday, but think most of the day will end up being mostly dry for the inland valleys, as a weak transient ridge glides over the region. But, models show another potent front offshore later Tue night/early Wed, with that front pushing inland late Wed into Wed night. With this, does look to be more rainy that showery by Thursday. After that, models still in quite a bit of flux with low forecast confidence due to large discrepancies in the longwave pattern over the eastern Pacific and CONUS. -Schuldt/Rockey

AVIATION
Postfrontal showery conditions dominate, with some followup waves of moisture, with a more major one around 15z Thu.
Coastal precipitation is heavier than inland, with generally MVFR conditions occasionally briefly deteriorating to IFR conditions as stronger bands of moisture pass through. Chance of LIFR conditions at this point is <10%. Inland, ceilings are bouncing between VFR and MVFR, with around a 60% chance of just MVFR ceilings expected. Southerly gusts up to 25 kt continue possible throughout Thursday, with winds dropping off around 04z Fri.
Another band of moisture arrives between 15-18z from the west, likely returning all inland terminals to MVFR ceilings. Coastal terminals currently see around a 80-90% chance of at least a brief period of IFR ceilings around that time.

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
The AWOS at KMMV is still out of commission. There is no estimated time of repair.

PDX AND APPROACHES...A brief period of predominantly VFR conditions are expected until 00z Fri. Around that time, the next wave of moisture arrives, deteriorating conditions back to MVFR.
High-end MVFR conditions continue until around 17z Fri, when the next more major band of moisture arrives. Conditions remain MVFR, but deteriorate slightly to low-end MVFR. 50-60% chance of ceilings below 2000 feet at that time. Winds continue gusting to 25 kt until 00-01z Fri, after which gusts will fall below 10 kt.
-JLiu

MARINE
The warm front has passed, though post-frontal conditions allow the Small Craft Advisory to continue, with gusts up to 30 kt possible, decreasing after midnight tonight. Seas are choppy, currently sitting around 7-10 ft at 9 seconds.

Winds turn more westerly/northwesterly Thursday night into Friday as the low pressure system pushes inland. Winds begin to ease slightly with gusts to 20-25 kt. However, a westerly swell will enter the waters and build seas to around 9-11 ft. These elevated seas are brief, as the swell height falls Friday night to Saturday. The next frontal system arrives on Saturday, will return gusty southwesterly winds. The latest NBM has decreased confidence in gales, only around 10% on Saturday.
-Alviz/JLiu



PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight PDT Friday night for ORZ127-128.

WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ210-251>253- 271>273.

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Mailboat Slough, Willapa River, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet

Grays Harbor Entrance
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Thu -- 02:22 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:57 AM PDT     -3.56 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:40 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:23 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:13 PM PDT     2.21 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:36 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:21 PM PDT     -2.06 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:08 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:51 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:45 PM PDT     1.94 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current, knots

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