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LSZ121 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0035.000000t0000z-231005t2345z/ 632 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled...
the affected areas were... Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi... Sand island to bayfield wi...
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat...lon 4673 9060 4674 9068 4687 9063 4695 9044 4713 9035 4714 9013 4672 9040 time...mot...loc 2331z 263deg 31kt 4709 9022 4693 9031 4678 9056

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 071146 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 546 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures today before a cool down this weekend

- Snow and rain/snow mix possible Friday/Saturday

- Next chance of light precipitation will be Tuesday/Wednesday

DISCUSSION
Issued at 256 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Warm, above normal temperatures are possible across the region today. The question is how warm will it get? There are several things that add up to what could be a warm day. There is strong waa at 850mb noted on model soundings with a strong inversion/warm nose, upper high pressure ridge (sinking air) and cloud cover may lift northeastward by early afternoon. However, will the warm air aloft mix down with help of the clearing skies? Model soundings keep the inversion in place along with easterly/southeasterly winds which isn't a good direction for waa. Deterministic models tend to keep the temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s with the HRRR being the somewhat outlier with temperatures to near 50 in portions of NW WI. Therefore, do not think the area will see record breaking warmth, but kept somewhat warm temperatures in the forecast because didn't have the confidence to drop temperatures.

The next opportunity for precipitation will come Friday afternoon mainly for the northwestern portions of the CWA as a trough enters the northern plains from MT. This trough will deepen by late Friday/early Saturday morning and with cold air in place from a cold front that is expected to swing through early Friday morning, the precipitation will be all snow. At least initially. As temperatures warm slightly over NW WI, the snow could transition over to a rain/snow mix.

As the trough swings through, winds will turn northwesterly leading to LES along the South Shore. Delta T Saturday ranges from 14-18C along with good omega in the DGZ. It is possible that northern Iron County will need a Winter Weather Advisory.
Outside the snow belt, not expecting much snow accumulation.
Mostly likely will be less than an inch.

The trough will exit late Sunday putting the region in northwest flow and leaving behind closer to normal temperatures. Next chance of light precipitation appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 546 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions are in place across much of the region with some pockets of MVFR to IFR visibilities. These areas will clear over the next few hours with VFR conditions prevailing into tonight.
A warm front will move through tonight and lead to the development of MVFR to IFR stratus. There are some indications of MVFR fog as well, but have kept at VFR with this update due to lower confidence based on what occurred this morning. There remains the potential for low level wind shear after 00z at BRD, INL and HIB, but current indications are that it will remain just below criteria so have left out with this update.

MARINE
Issued at 256 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Winds will be light and variable this morning increasing this afternoon out of the east at 10 knots. Winds are expected to become more southeasterly and increase to 15 to 20 knots with occasional gusts to near 25 knots. As a result, waves will increase to 2-5 knots through the near shore waters.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM CST Friday for LSZ140>147-150.

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