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LSZ121 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0035.000000t0000z-231005t2345z/ 632 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled...
the affected areas were... Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi... Sand island to bayfield wi...
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat...lon 4673 9060 4674 9068 4687 9063 4695 9044 4713 9035 4714 9013 4672 9040 time...mot...loc 2331z 263deg 31kt 4709 9022 4693 9031 4678 9056

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 301151 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 551 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

DISCUSSION
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Key Messages: - Light snow/flurries over northern Minnesota today with little accumulation.

- Light snow chances (20-30%) in spots Sunday but the trend is lower.

- Clipper system Monday afternoon/Tuesday morning to bring light snow chances (20-30%) and is trending higher.

- Near or above normal highs through much of the period.

A cold front and shortwave will move through the Northland today spreading clouds along with a chance for light snow or flurries to northern Minnesota. We currently have some POPS going from 20 to 50% over far northern Minnesota this morning and then just have some flurries in this afternoon. Little accumulation is expected, perhaps a dusting to a half inch. Colder air will be moving in behind the front and there may be some lake effect flurries along portions of the South Shore tonight. Low level fetch and deeper moisture are not ideal which is why we only have flurries going for now. The airmass is cold enough to support some clouds/flurries/light snow downwind of the larger inland lakes as well but ice reports and satellite imagery suggest that window is closing with ice forming.

High pressure settles over the region tonight into Friday providing dry weather and highs will be near normal, from the upper twenties to lower thirties. Most will be dry into Saturday with temperatures warming a bit. We did add some flurries along the North Shore as low level winds become southerly but delta-T values are marginal.

We still have a chance (20-30%) for light snow Sunday over portions of the Northland but the latest deterministic runs of the GFS/ECMWF as well as many of the ECMWF ensemble members are trending toward lower chances. We did raise POPS over NBM from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning given the latest run of the ECMWF which has support from both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. A clipper system will move southeast through the region.
The exact track is still uncertain but confidence is increasing that there will be some light snow over parts of the Northland.
Most areas will only see light snow amounts, mostly less than 1 inch, but areas around the lake (including the Twin Ports) could get a bit of a boost from off lake winds. Delta-T values are not real high though, generally less than 10 degrees.

Temperatures by Monday will be above normal,ranging from the lower to mid-thirties. Above normal temperatures will continue into late week with a few additional chances for light precipitation.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 551 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Conditions varied widely across the Northland early this morning, from VFR over northwest Wisconsin to VFR/MVFR over northern Minnesota. Clouds were moving southeast through northern Minnesota and there were some areas of MVFR ceilings. One area developed in northwest Minnesota and was moving toward KBRD and we added a TEMPO for the possibility it affects that area this morning.
Overall, we expect mostly VFR conditions with some MVFR ceilings and perhaps some light snow/flurries in far northern Minnesota.
Northwest winds will occur or develop this morning and they will be gusty at times to 15 to 20 knots. Higher gusts are expected along the North Shore through the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

West to southwest winds as of 3AM CST will veer to northwest this morning. They will be or increase to 10 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 knots. The strongest wind will occur along most of the North Shore and in the Outer Apostle Islands. We will continue to the Small Craft Advisory there into this afternoon. A decreasing wind will occur tonight with high pressure moving into the region. Expect the wind to back later tonight into Friday to west and generally be from 8 to 15 knots. Winds will back further on Saturday becoming east to southeast and increasing slightly. We don't anticipate meeting Small Craft Advisory thresholds on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 33 16 29 18 / 0 0 0 0 INL 30 15 29 15 / 30 0 0 0 BRD 34 16 31 19 / 0 0 0 0 HYR 35 14 32 17 / 0 0 0 0 ASX 36 17 33 18 / 0 10 0 0

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ140>143-150.

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