Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moscow, ID

SYNOPSIS
Afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorm threat continues into the the start of next week. Temperatures trend warmer. A drier airmass moves in by the middle of next week. pattern change at the end of the week will bring cooler, breezy conditions.

DISCUSSION

0830 Update: Increased chances for shower and thunderstorms across southeastern WA and the lower Idaho Panhandle. Radar has filled in over the last hour or two with scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms. This elevated activity is only delivering a few hundreths of rainfall along with localized wind gusts to 25 mph. New fire starts will be a concern.

Today: A strengthening high pressure over central Conus will start nudge a ridge into the Pacific Northwest. It will start a dry, warming trend for the region that will extend into the much of next week. Lingering residual moisture and instability will bring weak convection during the afternoon and early evening hours. Best chances (10-20%) will be over the mountain areas of the region.
Basin is not expected to see much in the showers or thunderstorms.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with less cloud cover expected. Temperatures expected to reach into the 80s to low 90s.

Monday through Thursday: With the ridge expected through the much of the week, any chances of precip will diminish through the period.
The only chances will come from weak waves moving North to South along a deep trough East of the Continental Divide. Ensembles are showing very little moisture associated with these waves as the clip Northeast WA and the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures will continue to the climb a degree or two each day. Highs will be in the upper 80s to 90s.

Friday and Saturday: Pattern change expected by the end of the week, as ridge slides East and a Low pushes into the Pacific Northwest. It is still fairly early to highlight potential impacts. For now, it will lead to increased precip chances mainly over the mountains.
Ensembles do have winds increasing on Saturday which could bring an elevated fire concern. Temperatures will be on a cooler trend as Saturdays highs will be in the 80s. /JDC

AVIATION
18Z TAFs: Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour TAF period with isolated MVFR visibilities due to smoke.
Confidence in visibility impacts is too low at this time to bring TAF visibilities lower than 6SM for all terminals apart from EAT. Smoke models keep EAT at MVFR for portions of the TAF period. Some showers are passing through SE Washington and are currently moving through the PUW area, which has a TEMPO out for thunder until 20Z, when Time of Arrival shows the line completely outside of the 10 mile radius. Winds will be mostly light through the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in smoke and haze continuing to impact local terminals, but low confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs. Low to moderate confidence in thunderstorms near PUW over the next couple of hours. /AS

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Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
Spokane 88 57 89 57 89 57 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 87 57 88 58 88 57 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 85 51 87 52 87 49 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 91 64 93 65 93 62 / 10 10 0 10 0 0 Colville 86 47 87 48 88 47 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 83 51 83 52 84 51 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 83 55 84 56 85 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 89 58 91 58 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 88 66 90 67 91 64 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 89 61 91 62 92 60 / 10 10 0 0 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Okanogan County, Chelan County, and Douglas County.

ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Lewis County and Nez Perce County.