Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moscow, ID

SYNOPSIS
A cold front is moving through the region on this afternoon, bringing chances for elevated fire weather conditions and localized blowing dust. Temperatures cool by around 10 degrees from Thursday to Friday. Saturday and Sunday, a low pressure system will bring widespread chances of precipitation and a return of gusty winds, alongside isolated thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Today and Friday: A cold front will continue to sag southward slowly today, bringing breezy west winds around 10-20 mph with gusts around 25 mph. There is a chance for blowing dust across the Columbia Basin but with the wind forecast trending down, not expecting widespread impacts. Little precipitation will come from this front besides some sprinkles and light showers late this evening in southeast Washington and the central and southern Idaho Panhandle. There is a small chance (5%) of isolated lightning with these showers with up to 200 J/kg CAPE from the most unstable parcel originating near the 700 mb warm nose on forecast soundings. Temperatures Friday behind the cold front will return to below average in the 60s to mid 70s. Light upslope fall into the northern ID Panhandle will bring a chance (15-30%) for surface showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Forecast instability looks very weak again tomorrow around 100-200 J/kg so not expecting widespread lightning.

Saturday through Thursday: Larger changes arrive Saturday afternoon as a deep trough strengthens off the coast. Much of the day will be fairly nice with highs in the 60s and 70s with breezy northeast winds in the Columbia Basin. Ensembles suggest PWATs will increase from near normal in the morning to around 120-180 percent of normal by Saturday evening. Precipitation chances will increase from south to north as the atmosphere saturates in the evening. There are still substantial differences in the QPF amounts amongst the ensembles but the overall trend is a higher chance of 0.5 inches or more of rain through Monday morning, especially outside of southeast Washington and the southern ID Panhandle. For example, yesterday morning’s NBM run only had a 34 percent chance of 0.5+ inches for Spokane while this morning’s run increased to 62 percent.
Overall, these chances for central Washington are around 30-45%, 50-70% for eastern Washington (greatest chances near the Idaho border), and 60-75% for the Idaho Panhandle. There is a small chance of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon near the Idaho/Washington border and Idaho Sunday as the cold pool aloft passes through the region. Forecast instability looks very weak with fairly stable mid levels, but surface heating may be sufficient to get a couple strikes. Temperatures Sunday will be well below normal in the 50s and 60s. Monday onward will bring a warming and drying trend as the low departs. There are some disagreements amongst the ensembles of additional troughing into Tuesday which would bring additional showery conditions. As ridging returns mid next week, temperatures will return into the 70s and 80s. /Butler

AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail as a cold front continues to hover over the region today, bringing mid and high clouds with gusty surface winds through this evening. An additional surge of moisture may bring sprinkles/light rain to KPUW-KLWS around 06-09z, but otherwise no precipitation is expected from this front. Mid and high level cloud cover will persist over the region through the 24 hour TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions through the period. Low confidence in precip hitting KPUW-KLWS so did not include in the TAFs at this time.

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
Spokane 49 71 51 71 50 61 / 0 0 0 0 70 80 Coeur d'Alene 49 68 49 69 47 57 / 10 0 0 0 70 90 Pullman 49 68 47 73 48 58 / 20 0 0 10 80 80 Lewiston 57 76 52 77 51 65 / 30 0 0 10 80 80 Colville 45 74 46 73 49 65 / 10 0 0 0 60 80 Sandpoint 48 65 47 65 46 57 / 20 20 0 0 70 90 Kellogg 48 66 47 67 45 54 / 60 0 0 0 70 90 Moses Lake 51 75 53 76 53 68 / 0 0 0 0 70 60 Wenatchee 52 75 57 75 52 69 / 0 0 0 10 70 60 Omak 50 75 53 76 52 69 / 0 0 0 0 60 70

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
ID...None.