Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moscow, ID
May 18, 2024 5:33 AM PDT (12:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:07 AM Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 3:31 PM Moonset 3:08 AM |
FXUS66 KOTX 181223 AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 523 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cooler and unsettled weather will continue through the weekend.
This morning will be quite chilly, with the potential for frost in the sheltered valleys of north Idaho, northeast and north central Washington. A wetter low pressure system is expected on Wednesday and will keep temperatures below normal.
DISCUSSION
Today: After a healthy dose of wind Thursday and Friday, residents of the Inland Northwest can expect more typical May weather today.
The deep low pressure responsible for our recent wind will migrate out of Montana and the Dakotas today. It will still be locally breezy this afternoon and evening, but not out of the ordinary.
Folks in Wenatchee and other locations prone to breezy winds through the Cascade gaps will experience "normal" late day west winds of 20 to 30 mph. Elsewhere, west winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common across the Columbia Basin, eastern Washington and north Idaho. Westerly pressure gradients will tighten this afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves inland. This disturbance will also enhance afternoon instability showers. The most significant concentrations of showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur across our counties near the Canadian border. Republic, Colville, Metaline, and Bonners Ferry will have a 50 to 70 percent chance of measurable precipitation this afternoon and early this evening.
Further south, chances dwiddle to 20 to 30 percent for Spokane and Coeur d'Alene with about a 15 percent chance of lightning around the metro in the evening.
Tonight: The mid-level circulation associated with our incoming disturbance is progged to move through the center of Washington this evening toward the southern Idaho Panhandle by early Sunday morning. Model ensembles generate enough lift and cooling aloft to sustain clusters of showers through the night across north Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. At this time, it looks like there will be enough shower activity and cloud debris to interrupt radiational cooling. It will still be a chilly night, but cold pockets like Deer Park, Colville, and sheltered valleys of north Idaho should remain above freezing...in the mid to upper 30s.
Sunday: It will be a cool and showery day in north Idaho and northeast Washington on Sunday. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will develop under a chilly upper level trough and the mountainous terrain will enhance shower chances. The National Blend of Models (NBM) gives Colville, Deer Park, Sandpoint, and Kellogg a 60 to 80 percent chance of showers. Despite high chances for showers, probabilities for 24 hour amounts exceeding a quarter inch are relatively low for north Idaho and northeast Washington...only 10 to 20 percent per the NBM. While localized amounts to a half inch may occur under a slow moving thunderstorm, the cool air mass and low precipitable water values don't support more than spotty, brief heavy rain. And with snow levels in the 4000-5000ft range motorists headed over Lookout Pass or Sherman Pass could see snow or a rain/snow mix Sunday.
Monday: For outdoor activities, Monday looks like the best day region-wide for mild temperatures and dry weather. With the exception of a 30 percent chance of showers over the mountainous terrain of north Idaho, the remainder of the Inland Northwest should be dry as a shortwave ridge builds across western and central Washington. Afternoon temperatures will range from the mid 60s in Sandpoint and Kellogg to the mid 70s in Omak, Moses Lake, and Wenatchee. And with winds of 5 to 15 mph region-wide, Monday looks like a great day to be outdoors before rain chances increase again Tuesday and Wednesday. /GKoch
Tuesday to Friday: Models are converging to show a good potential for wet weather as we head into the middle of next week for much, but not all, of the area and precipitation chances continue into the at least the end of next week. Tuesday into Wednesday a strong system drops south along the BC coastline and into the region.
The leading warm front noses in from the west-northwest Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The parent low drops into the region Wednesday, though there are still some disagreements on how quickly and this will have implications on the precise timing of the higher precipitation potential. Precipitation chances start into Cascades and northern mountains Tuesday, then start to expand and increase Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as deeper moisture wraps into the incoming low. Regional PWATs increase to 120-150% of normal. EFI table show some higher than normal precipitation anomalies around the eastern third of WA and ID.
Between Tuesday night and Wednesday night show the probabilities for wetting rains (>=0.10") around 70-95% (the higher end of that range near the eastern mountains. These probabilities cover all but the deeper basin and lee-side zones, where probabilities for wetting rain is around 30-50%. For the >=0.25" of rain ensembles show about a 40-75% chance. For >=0.50" of rain, ensembles show about 20-50% around the Cascade crest and the NE WA and ID Panhandle mountain zones.
Hydrology-wise, river forecasts show some rises starting around the middle of next week, though at this time nothing is forecast to push to flood levels on any mainstem rivers. We will keep an eye on any smaller streams/creeks and watch for any debris flow/mudslide and ponding of water potential. Confidence in details will increase as we get closer.
Additionally, Wednesday afternoon and evening will bring at least a slight chance of embedded t-storms. The instability parameters are not too impressive, with about 100 J/kg of CAPE over the the north and eastern CWA, but given the dynamic low having a slight chance in the forecast is prudent until models start to settle on a more solid solution. There will be some breeziness both Tuesday and Wednesday, particularly over central WA, with gusts in the 15-25 mph range. If the track or timing of the low changes it could impact the strength of those winds (up or down) so stay tuned.
Lastly, I did hold temperatures down toward the lower 25-50% percentile of solutions, as the rain may make it hard for some areas to get to 60. The forecast may need to be lowered further than what I have. Milder readings are forecast where rain amounts will be less, with more 60s and perhaps some low 70s in the lee of the Cascades and deeper basin.
Going into Thursday and Friday of next week, model agreement is a bit mushier, with the placement of the various low pressure centers and embedded shortwave highly varied between model to model. Either way, these features will be in the region and keep rain chances alive. About 35-40% of the model place the primary trough axis near the coast, while 60-65% place it to the east- southeast of WA. So there is some slight favor toward that latter longer-wave set-up. Some lingering steadier and locally higher precipitation amounts are possible then over eastern parts of the CWA, particularly the central Panhandle, Thursday. The Spokane/Cd'A area and/or the Palouse could be painted with some higher precipitation amounts too as some solutions wrap some steadier moisture back into these areas too, but confidence is only medium. Right now. The afternoon hours will continue to come with slight t-storms chances around the mountains mostly and some marginally breezy conditions. Right now both of these features look like more of a nuisance than a big impact. Temperature will remain below normal Thursday, then may start to trend closer to normal by Friday. /Solveig
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: An incoming upper level disturbance will enhance instability showers this afternoon across the Idaho Panhandle as well as north central and northeast Washington. Convective showers will begin along the B.C. border between 18-20z with widespread coverage around Republic, Colville, and Bonners Ferry between 21-04z. For Spokane, the best combination of daytime destabilization and lift from the incoming wave will be between 00z-04z...worth a PROB30 in the TAF. Then after 09z the metro will have another shot of showers under the heart of the upper low.
Scattered lightning is expected in the afternoon into mid evening with 30 percent chance of thunderstorms along the Canadian border.
Spokane and Coeur d'Alene have less than a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms so TSRA has not been included in the TAFs for now.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Our air mass is not particularly moist with surface dewpoints in the 20s and 30s.
It will take some time for showers to moisten the lower atmosphere enough for ceiling to fall below 3000 feet. A few spots in the mountainous terrain of northeast WA and north ID may experience some fog and broken clouds below 2000 feet late tonight, but HRRR probabilities for ceilings below this threshold increase after 12z Sunday. Airports like Couer d'Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and Kellogg have a 50 percent or greater chance for stratus Sunday morning. For KGEG, the probability is about 30 percent after 12z Sunday. /GKoch
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 62 40 60 39 69 44 / 20 40 50 20 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 60 39 56 39 66 42 / 30 40 60 20 10 0 Pullman 59 36 57 38 63 42 / 10 30 30 10 10 0 Lewiston 69 43 64 45 71 48 / 0 20 20 10 10 0 Colville 61 33 63 34 71 38 / 70 70 70 20 10 10 Sandpoint 58 36 54 38 64 41 / 70 60 80 20 30 10 Kellogg 56 40 52 41 61 43 / 40 50 70 20 40 10 Moses Lake 67 39 69 42 76 46 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 63 42 67 44 73 50 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 Omak 66 39 68 41 76 47 / 40 30 20 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 523 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cooler and unsettled weather will continue through the weekend.
This morning will be quite chilly, with the potential for frost in the sheltered valleys of north Idaho, northeast and north central Washington. A wetter low pressure system is expected on Wednesday and will keep temperatures below normal.
DISCUSSION
Today: After a healthy dose of wind Thursday and Friday, residents of the Inland Northwest can expect more typical May weather today.
The deep low pressure responsible for our recent wind will migrate out of Montana and the Dakotas today. It will still be locally breezy this afternoon and evening, but not out of the ordinary.
Folks in Wenatchee and other locations prone to breezy winds through the Cascade gaps will experience "normal" late day west winds of 20 to 30 mph. Elsewhere, west winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common across the Columbia Basin, eastern Washington and north Idaho. Westerly pressure gradients will tighten this afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves inland. This disturbance will also enhance afternoon instability showers. The most significant concentrations of showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur across our counties near the Canadian border. Republic, Colville, Metaline, and Bonners Ferry will have a 50 to 70 percent chance of measurable precipitation this afternoon and early this evening.
Further south, chances dwiddle to 20 to 30 percent for Spokane and Coeur d'Alene with about a 15 percent chance of lightning around the metro in the evening.
Tonight: The mid-level circulation associated with our incoming disturbance is progged to move through the center of Washington this evening toward the southern Idaho Panhandle by early Sunday morning. Model ensembles generate enough lift and cooling aloft to sustain clusters of showers through the night across north Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. At this time, it looks like there will be enough shower activity and cloud debris to interrupt radiational cooling. It will still be a chilly night, but cold pockets like Deer Park, Colville, and sheltered valleys of north Idaho should remain above freezing...in the mid to upper 30s.
Sunday: It will be a cool and showery day in north Idaho and northeast Washington on Sunday. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will develop under a chilly upper level trough and the mountainous terrain will enhance shower chances. The National Blend of Models (NBM) gives Colville, Deer Park, Sandpoint, and Kellogg a 60 to 80 percent chance of showers. Despite high chances for showers, probabilities for 24 hour amounts exceeding a quarter inch are relatively low for north Idaho and northeast Washington...only 10 to 20 percent per the NBM. While localized amounts to a half inch may occur under a slow moving thunderstorm, the cool air mass and low precipitable water values don't support more than spotty, brief heavy rain. And with snow levels in the 4000-5000ft range motorists headed over Lookout Pass or Sherman Pass could see snow or a rain/snow mix Sunday.
Monday: For outdoor activities, Monday looks like the best day region-wide for mild temperatures and dry weather. With the exception of a 30 percent chance of showers over the mountainous terrain of north Idaho, the remainder of the Inland Northwest should be dry as a shortwave ridge builds across western and central Washington. Afternoon temperatures will range from the mid 60s in Sandpoint and Kellogg to the mid 70s in Omak, Moses Lake, and Wenatchee. And with winds of 5 to 15 mph region-wide, Monday looks like a great day to be outdoors before rain chances increase again Tuesday and Wednesday. /GKoch
Tuesday to Friday: Models are converging to show a good potential for wet weather as we head into the middle of next week for much, but not all, of the area and precipitation chances continue into the at least the end of next week. Tuesday into Wednesday a strong system drops south along the BC coastline and into the region.
The leading warm front noses in from the west-northwest Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The parent low drops into the region Wednesday, though there are still some disagreements on how quickly and this will have implications on the precise timing of the higher precipitation potential. Precipitation chances start into Cascades and northern mountains Tuesday, then start to expand and increase Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as deeper moisture wraps into the incoming low. Regional PWATs increase to 120-150% of normal. EFI table show some higher than normal precipitation anomalies around the eastern third of WA and ID.
Between Tuesday night and Wednesday night show the probabilities for wetting rains (>=0.10") around 70-95% (the higher end of that range near the eastern mountains. These probabilities cover all but the deeper basin and lee-side zones, where probabilities for wetting rain is around 30-50%. For the >=0.25" of rain ensembles show about a 40-75% chance. For >=0.50" of rain, ensembles show about 20-50% around the Cascade crest and the NE WA and ID Panhandle mountain zones.
Hydrology-wise, river forecasts show some rises starting around the middle of next week, though at this time nothing is forecast to push to flood levels on any mainstem rivers. We will keep an eye on any smaller streams/creeks and watch for any debris flow/mudslide and ponding of water potential. Confidence in details will increase as we get closer.
Additionally, Wednesday afternoon and evening will bring at least a slight chance of embedded t-storms. The instability parameters are not too impressive, with about 100 J/kg of CAPE over the the north and eastern CWA, but given the dynamic low having a slight chance in the forecast is prudent until models start to settle on a more solid solution. There will be some breeziness both Tuesday and Wednesday, particularly over central WA, with gusts in the 15-25 mph range. If the track or timing of the low changes it could impact the strength of those winds (up or down) so stay tuned.
Lastly, I did hold temperatures down toward the lower 25-50% percentile of solutions, as the rain may make it hard for some areas to get to 60. The forecast may need to be lowered further than what I have. Milder readings are forecast where rain amounts will be less, with more 60s and perhaps some low 70s in the lee of the Cascades and deeper basin.
Going into Thursday and Friday of next week, model agreement is a bit mushier, with the placement of the various low pressure centers and embedded shortwave highly varied between model to model. Either way, these features will be in the region and keep rain chances alive. About 35-40% of the model place the primary trough axis near the coast, while 60-65% place it to the east- southeast of WA. So there is some slight favor toward that latter longer-wave set-up. Some lingering steadier and locally higher precipitation amounts are possible then over eastern parts of the CWA, particularly the central Panhandle, Thursday. The Spokane/Cd'A area and/or the Palouse could be painted with some higher precipitation amounts too as some solutions wrap some steadier moisture back into these areas too, but confidence is only medium. Right now. The afternoon hours will continue to come with slight t-storms chances around the mountains mostly and some marginally breezy conditions. Right now both of these features look like more of a nuisance than a big impact. Temperature will remain below normal Thursday, then may start to trend closer to normal by Friday. /Solveig
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: An incoming upper level disturbance will enhance instability showers this afternoon across the Idaho Panhandle as well as north central and northeast Washington. Convective showers will begin along the B.C. border between 18-20z with widespread coverage around Republic, Colville, and Bonners Ferry between 21-04z. For Spokane, the best combination of daytime destabilization and lift from the incoming wave will be between 00z-04z...worth a PROB30 in the TAF. Then after 09z the metro will have another shot of showers under the heart of the upper low.
Scattered lightning is expected in the afternoon into mid evening with 30 percent chance of thunderstorms along the Canadian border.
Spokane and Coeur d'Alene have less than a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms so TSRA has not been included in the TAFs for now.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Our air mass is not particularly moist with surface dewpoints in the 20s and 30s.
It will take some time for showers to moisten the lower atmosphere enough for ceiling to fall below 3000 feet. A few spots in the mountainous terrain of northeast WA and north ID may experience some fog and broken clouds below 2000 feet late tonight, but HRRR probabilities for ceilings below this threshold increase after 12z Sunday. Airports like Couer d'Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and Kellogg have a 50 percent or greater chance for stratus Sunday morning. For KGEG, the probability is about 30 percent after 12z Sunday. /GKoch
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 62 40 60 39 69 44 / 20 40 50 20 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 60 39 56 39 66 42 / 30 40 60 20 10 0 Pullman 59 36 57 38 63 42 / 10 30 30 10 10 0 Lewiston 69 43 64 45 71 48 / 0 20 20 10 10 0 Colville 61 33 63 34 71 38 / 70 70 70 20 10 10 Sandpoint 58 36 54 38 64 41 / 70 60 80 20 30 10 Kellogg 56 40 52 41 61 43 / 40 50 70 20 40 10 Moses Lake 67 39 69 42 76 46 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 63 42 67 44 73 50 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 Omak 66 39 68 41 76 47 / 40 30 20 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPUW PULLMAN/MOSCOW RGNL,WA | 6 sm | 40 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 30°F | 75% | 30.01 |
Spokane, WA,
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