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LSZ144 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0031.000000t0000z-231005t2000z/ 229 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled...
the affected areas were... Two harbors to duluth mn...
the Thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
lat...lon 4691 9165 4705 9109 4694 9096 4691 9096 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4682 9127 4674 9158 time...mot...loc 1929z 256deg 36kt 4684 9149

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 030330 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 930 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

DISCUSSION
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Key Messages:

1. Fairly quiet weather continues with a chance for light snow on Sunday along the North Shore and in northwest Wisconsin. Amounts will be around an inch or less.

2. A series of Clipper systems this upcoming week will bring several additional chances for snow and wintry precip.

3. Temperatures are likely to remain roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the forecast period.

Discussion: Conditions this afternoon have been fairly quiet as high pressure to our east propagates downstream. Cloud cover is expected to increase this evening into tonight as an upper-level trough slides eastward into the Upper Midwest. A shortwave trough currently located around Texas and Oklahoma will be pivoting into the lower Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. A surface low associated with this shortwave will follow a similar path, reaching the northeastern CONUS by Sunday evening. The majority of impacts associated with this sfc low will be east of the CWA. However, northwest WI will still has around a 30-60% chance of seeing a couple tenths of an inch of snow tonight through Sunday.

The greatest impact from Sunday's system in our CWA will be lake and orographically enhanced snowfall along the North Shore. Southeast flow occurring this afternoon is expected to continue tonight into Sunday morning. Light snow is not expected to begin until moisture advection occurs tonight, saturating the low-levels. 850mb temps will only be around -7 to -8 degC tonight into tomorrow with lake sfc temps around 6 degC. This marginal delta-T will result in fairly skinny lake-induced CAPE profiles of 100-200 J/kg per soundings from the CAMs. When accounting for entrainment effects, the strength of lake-effect snow will be reduced. Amounts have been increased slightly along the North Shore in this afternoon's forecast update.
However, totals tonight through Sunday will still only be an inch or less for most. There is about a 30-40% chance for a localized pockets up to 2" near the Lake/Cook County line, which is the reasonable worst case scenario for this weekend's system.

This upcoming week will see a somewhat active pattern as a series of Clipper systems propagate through the CWA. Despite this active pattern, impacts will be minimal as moisture remains scarce and temps sit around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. These above-normal temps will increase daytime highs to or above freezing through the week for most locations. While there are a few chances for widespread light snow, notably on Monday and Wednesday, any snow that accumulates will likely melt from diurnal heating. Total snow accumulations for the upcoming workweek are currently very likely (greater than 70% chance) to be an inch or less.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

VFR conditions across the region this evening. A shortwave is expected to move through the area beginning overnight tonight.
This will bring areas of light snow mainly for HYR and DLH.
Additionally some model soundings are showing possible freezing drizzle, but given the lack of confidence with location and timing, have kept out of the TAFs for now. As this area of precipitation moves in from the south VFR conditions will transition over to MVFR/IFR ceilings and occasional LIFR ceilings.
The lower ceilings should remain through the period as the shortwave continues to affect the region.

MARINE
Issued at 926 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

No hazardous conditions are expected across western Lake Superior over the next 48 hours. A few light rain and snow showers will be possible through Sunday, but winds will remain around 10 to 15 knots or less into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 24 33 24 35 / 10 20 0 20 INL 22 34 22 33 / 10 0 0 10 BRD 25 35 23 34 / 0 0 0 20 HYR 23 36 23 37 / 10 20 0 10 ASX 22 35 24 38 / 10 10 0 10

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.

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