Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 10:20 AM   Moonset 1:18 AM

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LSZ145 Expires:202405110230;;997183 Fzus73 Kdlh 110144 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 844 pm cdt Fri may 10 2024
lsz144-145-162-110230- 844 pm cdt Fri may 10 2024
.an area of Thunderstorms approaching western lake superior - .
the areas affected include - . Duluth mn to port wing wi - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Two harbors to duluth mn - .
at 843 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from near knife river marina to 8 nm northwest of mcquade harbor to 13 nm northwest of duluth lift bridge channel, moving south at 35 knots.
locations impacted include - . Knife river marina, superior entry, brule point, mcquade harbor, barkers island, superior harbor, duluth lift bridge channel, duluth harbor, stoney point, and french river.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 33 knots and locally higher waves. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately and remain there until winds and waves subside.
&&
lat - .lon 4669 9229 4668 9224 4672 9223 4681 9211 4699 9178 4673 9152 4666 9193 4666 9203 4671 9210 4666 9211 4665 9216 4662 9221 4663 9228 4664 9229 4664 9230

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 141944 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 244 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of frost tonight for parts of northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead.

- A rainy system moves in Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
A few thunderstorms will be possible. Severe weather is not expected.

- Temperatures warm up over the weekend with off-and-on rain and thunder chances going into next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Mild weather continues today with the usual spring lake breezes in full effect around Lake Superior. Sunshine is plentiful this afternoon, but there are some clouds advancing in over north-central Minnesota associated with a weak upper-level trough. I'm not expecting there to be much precipitation, if any, with this because the air near and at the surface is quite dry and is expected to remain so through tonight. Nevertheless, we should see a gradual trend for increasing clouds from west to east overnight. Temperature- wise, we're looking at another night where some frost will be possible. It is likely to be a bit more patchy than last night since we'll have the clouds moving in and an air mass that's warming up a bit, but some places in the inland Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin may see temperatures fall as low as 34-35 degrees (and reach freezing right at ground level). Some Frost Advisories have been issued, and their end time will be 7 AM.

Models continue to delay the onset of rain that will move in with the next system. Parts of northeast Minnesota should see rain moving in Wednesday afternoon, then elsewhere Wednesday night from southwest to northeast. There's also some model disagreement in exact rainfall amounts, which may be due to some messy synoptic lift (pockets of cyclonic vorticity advection and weak warm air advection). Convective potential also continues to look pretty weak with just a few hundred J/kg of CAPE out there (mainly elevated). All things considered, a quarter to half inch of rain is looking about right for most places, but we can certainly expect some locally lower or higher amounts depending on how the synoptic forcing and small amount of instability work with each other. The rain should start to wind down by Thursday evening, at least for a brief period.

Going into Friday, the overall pattern is looking to remain fairly active. A wavy upper-level pattern will bring more chances for rain/thunder as we go into the weekend and early next week, but there should also be some breaks here and there with sunshine. Temperatures are expected to climb gradually as well, and we could see some pretty toasty weather with highs in the 70s to low 80s over the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A lake breeze will keep winds and gusts blustery through the early evening at DLH (gusts to around 20 kt). Lighter winds elsewhere. VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Gusty northeast winds will continue through about 6 or 7 PM this evening around the head of the lake. Expect occasional gusts to 20-25 kt and waves to 3-4 ft. Winds will lessen overnight, then a nearly identical repeat period of gusty onshore winds are expected Wednesday afternoon. A low pressure system will bring rain Wednesday night through Thursday, and winds are not expected to be as gusty.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ012-021.
WI...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ001>004-009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144- 145.

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