Sunrise 6:50 AM   Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 4:35 PM   Moonset 4:50 AM

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LSZ248 /o.can.kmqt.ma.w.0066.000000t0000z-231006t0000z/ 719 Pm Edt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Huron islands to marquette mi - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Marquette to munising mi - .
the Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4677 8728 4691 8674 4647 8712 4645 8727 time - .mot - .loc 2318z 252deg 17kt 4685 8696 4666 8713

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 200634 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 234 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- West winds gusting up to 25 to 35 mph through tonight.
- Hit and miss precipitation into Saturday, then dry through Monday.
- Fire weather concerns increase through Monday with lowering RH's and breezy winds.
- Best chances for precipitation arrive early next week with low pressure system. Then dry weather through Thursday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
Issued at 233 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low in James Bay with a trough across the upper Great Lakes and northern plains. This upper trough remains through 00z Sun. Deeper moisture moves out today, so flurries and light snow showers will come to an end.
Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 452 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Saturday starts with a broad trough over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes alongside a sfc high pressure building southeast over the Plains. With Lake Superior around 2C and 850mb temps dropping down to around -10C by Saturday morning, delta-ts will be just shy of the ideal profile for LES. Expect a brief period of light snow showers in the morning as a shortwave trough moves east through the Great Lakes. Inversion heights will be around 5kft with some moisture reaching into the DGZ, however dry air increasing at the sfc with limited forcing will be limiting factors. Overall confidence in snow showers is low with dry weather expected in the afternoon as cloud cover clears out. Accumulations should remain below 0.5". Temps will be cooler than normal during the day in the 40s; temps drop into the mid to upper 20s in the interior with low to mid 30s along the lakeshores Saturday night. While west to northwest winds will be gusting up to 15-25 mph during the early part of the day, min RHs are expected to remain above 30%, lowering fire weather concerns. A very weak shortwave drops south over the UP Saturday night, but dry model soundings indicate no precip is to be expected.

The mid level trough axis moves from northern Ontario on Sunday into Quebec Sunday night. PVA stays north of of Lake Superior, but a sfc trough and cold front will drop south across the UP Sunday afternoon increasing cloud cover and bringing some gusty northwest winds up to 20-25 mph. With highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s (warmest south central) and low level lapse rates around 7-8C/km, RHs will approach 25-30%. This increases fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon, especially over the south central UP. Winds become light again overnight with sfc high pressure moving east over the UP. With good radiative cooling, lows fall into the mid 20s to low 30s with coldest temps expected over the east where the best subsidence will be. Warmer than normal temps are more broadly forecast on Monday in the mid 40s to low 60s, warmest interior west. Elevated fire weather concerns return Monday afternoon with min RHs in the mid 20s to mid 30s, lowest west, and gusts increasing to around 15-20 mph.

A mid level closed low forms over Saskatchewan Sunday night, moving southeast through the midwest on Tuesday as it opens up in to a trough. The trough then continues southeast into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. An associated sfc low follows a similar track, just a bit more to the north through the Great Lakes Basin. This will bring the best chances for precip during the extended forecast with showers moving in from the west Monday night, continuing into Tuesday night. Main p-type will be rain, however there is some low chances for some snow to mix in on the back side of the low (<50% chance). Sfc high pressure returns to the Great Lakes on Wednesday bringing back dry weather into Friday while mid level ridging over the rockies moves east over the Great Lakes. Uncertainty in the forecast grows from here regarding the timing and track of shortwaves riding northeast into the Great Lakes late next week into the weekend bringing our next precip. Thus, left NBM PoPs which increase Friday into the weekend as models indicate a sfc low or two ejecting off the rockies and heading northwest into the region. The southwest flow does bring a return to above normal temps late this week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1220 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Some light snow showers look to continue through the area the rest of this morning as low pressure troughing slowly is pushed out of the region by a weak ridge. This will likely (80+% chance) cause cigs to drop into high-end MVFR conditions. However, chances seem fairly low (20 to 30%) that we will get below 2 kft now. That being said, in a "heavier" snow shower, we could see the vis drop down to MVFR from time to time also. As ridging tries to build in from the west during the daylight hours, expect the snow shower activity to cease and for skies to scatter out by the afternoon. Otherwise, expect gusty W to NW winds today. Some marginal LLWS is possible, but unlikely (20 to 30% chance), over KSAW for the next couple of hours. However, cold air advection should bring the stronger winds to the surface instead of keeping them trapped aloft. We also have a low chance of seeing some marginal LLWS over KCMX and KSAW this evening too, but given the low 20 to 30% chance, I'm certainly not confident enough to include it within the TAF.

MARINE
Issued at 452 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Widespread westerly winds of 20-30 kts with some gales to 35 kts over the central 3rd of the lake will continue into this evening.
Winds then veer northwest tonight, maintaining around 20-30 kts. On Saturday winds back west, dropping down to around 20-25 kts Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front drops south across the lake on Sunday. That being said, high pressure building in from the west will increase stability and lower winds below 20 kts across the entire lake by Sunday night. Winds then are expected to remain below 20 kts through Monday as high pressure moves east over the Great Lakes. A low pressure system early next week will see east winds increasing to 20-25 kts Monday night, becoming north 20-30 kts Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds look to fall back below 20 kts on Wednesday behind the low pressure system, continuing through most of next week as high pressure returns.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ240-245-246.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for LSZ241-247>249.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ242>244-250- 251.

Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ221- 248-250.

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