Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for White Pine, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 441 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Early morning GOES-East water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows initial moisture aloft associated with a weak upper shortwave over northwestern Ontario, though the moisture aloft has not yet translated into precipitation, with only very light radar returns and no precipitation reported in METARs as of 08Z. Elsewhere in the RAP analysis at 500mb is deep troughing off the New England shores, weak ridging over northeast Ontario, more prominent troughing over Manitoba, and weak split flow over the Pacific NW/southern British Columbia region.

Today, the aforementioned weak shortwave will push over the UP, bringing a chance (up to 30%) of precipitation primarily in the 18Z to 00Z window this afternoon. Some breaks in the clouds and enhanced southerly low level flow ahead of an approaching cold front will allow for temperatures in the west today to climb above freezing, with upper 30s expected in the areas that downslope to Lake Superior such as northern Marquette and Baraga counties as well as Ontonagon.
Additionally, downsloping areas will be prone to some gusty winds today in excess of 30 mph in some shoreline locations. Because of the locally warmer temperatures, the aforementioned chances of precipitation will come in multiple ptype flavors, mostly rain or snow, but some freezing drizzle is also possible in some locations, though not much accumulation is expected with the warmer daytime temperatures and warm asphalt surfaces that are exposed to the breaks in the clouds today.

Tonight, the deeper secondary trough rotates through northern Ontario and brings with it a surface low of near 1004 mb and associated cold front draped south of it across Upper Michigan. The 00Z HRRR has significantly slowed down PoPs relative to its 12Z and previous 00Z counterparts with the arrival of widespread precip now expected after 00Z this evening. This timing allows for some cooling to occur, both aloft and at the surface, which has shifted the distribution of precipitation types from a relatively even mix to a snow-dominated one, though enough of a warm nose is present that freezing rain and sleet are still expected for at least some period of time tonight. While the probability of exceeding a tenth of an inch of ice is virtually 0% in the HRRR (especially when considering the 00Z components of the ensemble and not the time-lagged components), the FRAM probability of exceeding 0.05" of ice is 30- 50% in the central UP, with the western UP seeing rain cleanly transitioning to snow overnight and the far eastern UP remaining snowy throughout the event. In the east, despite being in pure snow for the event, temperatures near freezing will limit the SLRs and so snow accumulations of generally around 2 inches are expected. Given the combination of winter weather hazards, will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going, adding Luce County to the bunch but otherwise maintaining the current headlines.

For the midweek period, the wake of the front will allow high temperatures to range from near normal (20s on Wednesday) to near but mainly below freezing (Tuesday/Thursday). With 850mb temperatures bottoming out near -13C on Wednesday, some trailing NW wind lake effect snow showers are forecast, with inversion heights of around 5 kft and DGZ depths of over 5kft above that leading to some elevated SLRs near 20:1, though QPF struggles to exceed 0.05"/6hr rates. Should some localized convergence in the low level wind fields emerge from the ensembles or more moisture available than expected, an advisory-level snowfall is not out of the question, but for now, just light snowfall is forecast.

As high pressure establishes itself over the Great Lakes in the late week period and into the weekend, lake effect snow is expected to end by Thursday. A wide spread in the high temperatures is observed in the NBM, with 25th percentile highs for Thursday through the weekend sub-freezing, but 75th percentile highs are in the upper 30s and even low to mid 40s in some locations. While a healthy snowpack is in place that wont melt away entirely, if the 75th percentile is realized, the melting/refreezing cycles may impact the texture of the snowpack and may make lake ice particularly unstable. Outdoor winter recreators this weekend may wish to keep a close eye on the evolving temperature forecast for this reason. Otherwise, slight chance PoPs (around 15%) remain in the forecast as the UP is not directly in the path of synoptic systems this weekend, though a low projected to pass near the southern extent of the Hudson Bay has some ensemble clusters that bring the low far enough south to bring precip to the area. Additionally, ensembles do have some clusters of solutions that bring a CO Low to the southern Great Lakes basin by Sunday, though the ensembles are slightly more confident in the following low coming out of the Rockies for the beginning to middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 104 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected until tonight when a disturbance brings light snow to the area. The exceptions to this are at SAW where light snow/brief MVFR vis or freezing rain is likely at times this afternoon and freezing rain/snow possible again tonight prior to a full change over to snow late tonight. Added a PROB30 group for the nighttime period as vis restrictions this afternoon should not persist long. Widespread deterioration down to IFR is expected tonight with a 30% chance for LIFR vis at SAW early Tuesday morning.
Improvement to MVFR is anticipated Tuesday morning. Otherwise south- southwest winds this afternoon become west-northwest for Tuesday, increasing to 15-20 kts by the afternoon with gusts up to 20-30 kts.

MARINE
Issued at 441 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Ahead of an approaching cold front, southerly winds gusting near 25 kt are expected over much of Lake Superior today. Winds briefly fall below 20 kt tonight before northwesterly winds behind the front are around 50% likely to exceed gale force gusts over the east half of the lake for Tuesday. With the potential gale will be waves of 7-10 ft and isolated heavy freezing spray threats. Wind gusts fall to near 25 kt by Wednesday afternoon and then fall below 20 kt overnight as high pressure becomes established over the Great Lakes.
The next chances for high winds over Lake Superior will come late in the weekend to the beginning of next week depending on the track and intensity of low pressure emerging from the Rockies and passing through the Great Lakes area.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ004>007- 013-014-085.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MIZ010>012.

Lake Superior...
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for LSZ245>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.