Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayfield, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:03PM Sunday August 25, 2019 8:06 PM CDT (01:06 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 3:30PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ147 Expires:201908051700;;159169 Fzus73 Kdlh 051525 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 1025 Am Cdt Mon Aug 5 2019 Lsz121-143-145>148-162-051700- 1025 Am Cdt Mon Aug 5 2019
.an area of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Oak point to saxon harbor wi... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors... At 1023 am cdt, doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located near herbster, or 32 nm east of duluth lift bridge channel, moving east at 35 knots. The area of Thunderstorms will be near... Bayfield peninsula sea caves around 1045 am cdt. Sand island around 1050 am cdt. Raspberry island lighthouse and red cliff around 1100 am cdt. Madeline island around 1110 am cdt. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 300 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4661 9079 4656 9091 4657 9097 4667 9094 4670 9089 4676 9092 4687 9080 4690 9080 4693 9086 4691 9096 4684 9110 4683 9121 4675 9145 4718 9145 4721 9140 4725 9005 4666 9044 4656 9043
LSZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield city, WI
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location: 46.86, -90.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 252354 aaa
afddlh
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service duluth mn
654 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019

Update
Issued at 638 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

Short term (this evening through Monday night)
issued at 237 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
cool and wet tonight and through Monday as a slow-moving cold front
moves across the northland from west to east. Along and ahead of
this cold front, showers and a few thunderstorms will bring around
an inch or two of much-needed rainfall to northeast minnesota and
much of northwest wisconsin, with most of the rain falling through
the day Monday. Lows fall to the 50s to near 60 tonight, rising into
the upper 60s to near 70 on Monday.

This cool and rainy pattern is driven by a longwave mid upper level
trough approaching from the west across the canadian prairie and
causing a resultant surface low to deepen over the manitoba-ontario
border. While normally southerly flow that develops ahead of the
trough at low levels would bring in warmer air, richer low level
moisture, and elevated instability from the southwest, a pair of mid-
level shortwave troughs over the great plains ahead of the main
longwave trough axis are causing scattered to widespread
precipitation and limiting the potential warm air advection as well
as richer low level moisture from advecting north into the upper
midwest. This will lead to limited instability, generally only
around 500 j kg MUCAPE or less, greatest in central minnesota.

Despite poor conditions for deep convection, there will be plenty of
layer moisture and broad-scale lift for widespread rainfall across
the region along and ahead of the front as a mid-level shortwave
trough approaches from the west on Monday embedded within the
greater longwave trough. As the surface low rapidly deepens Monday
into Monday night, cool wrap-around flow will lead to continued
chances for rainfall in the wake of the surface cold front, though
the most intense precipitation rates are expected along and ahead of
the cold frontal passage on Monday.

Total rainfall amounts may vary locally due to embedded
thunderstorms producing heavier rainfall rates as well as along-
front storm motion causing some training effects, but generally most
locations can expect at least a healthy inch of rainfall between
tonight and Monday night, with locally higher amounts of 2 to as
much as 3 inches of rainfall possible. While there are a number of
factors that will affect where the highest rainfall amounts fall,
the steep elevation change along the north shore may lead to some of
the locally higher rainfall amounts due to near-perpendicular storm
motion causing some terrain enhancement. At this point storms are
not expected to be severe, and while heavy rainfall amounts are
possible, recent dryness as well as moderate rainfall rates should
limit flash flood potential.

Finally, note that our radar will continue to be down through most
of these week due to a major hardware upgrade. While technicians
will be working through the rain, without the radar we depend on
observations from spotters to help us monitor conditions on the
ground. Please do not hesitate to report any minor flooding to the
national weather service as well as rainfall totals - your reports
are critical to us! If you would like to report rain snow on a
regular basis, consider signing up for cocorahs - visit cocorahs.Org
for more info.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 237 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
a cool and wet pattern lingers through mid-week, then a return to
drier conditions and slightly warmer temps late-week through next
weekend. Temperatures remain slightly on the cool side, with highs
generally in the mid 60s to near 70 each day and lows in the 40s. At
this point no significant frost or freeze is anticipated through the
weekend.

On the synoptic scale northwest flow lingers through mid-week with
residual mid-level moisture and cool air aloft leading to continued
chances for rain showers Tuesday and Wednesday, with a mid-level
shortwave trough aiding in the large-scale lift on Tuesday, then
more just diurnally driven showers on Wednesday. A few thunderstorms
are possible on Tuesday, but severe storms are unlikely. Late week a
broad area of high pressure builds in from the west leading to dry
conditions. Late in the weekend this area of high pressure builds
over the upper great lakes, leading to southerly flow causing
somewhat warmer air at low levels to advect northward. While the
deterministic GFS and a few of the GEFS ensemble members speed up
and amplify the broad scale flow which leads to a chance for rain
late in the weekend into early next week, this is an outlier - odds
are more likely that conditions remain dry through the weekend.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 654 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
mostlyVFR conditions were observed as of the 00z TAF issuance,
with some MVFR ifr visibility reductions at kbrd due to some
light rain showers that have developed ahead of a cold front. This
front will slowly move eastward this evening through the day
Monday. Mostly ifr conditions are expected to build into the
region ahead of the cold front on Monday due to ceilings between
500 to 1000 ft over much of the area. Showers with some isolated
thunderstorms are possible through the day Monday, so some
MVFR ifr visibility reductions will be possible as well. South to
southeasterly winds will be gusty at times Monday, especially for
khyr, khib, and kdlh, with gusts generally between 15 to 25 knots.

Marine
Issued at 1221 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
persistent southeasterly winds ahead of a front will lead to some
larger waves along the north shore tonight into Monday night,
especially north of silver bay where wave heights of 2 to 4 feet
are possible. A small craft advisory may be needed. In addition to
the stronger southeast winds, widespread showers and a few storms
are possible late tonight through Monday night, with heavy
rainfall possible at times.

Once the front moves through late Monday, winds will switch to
become westerly Tuesday through Wednesday with persistent 15 to
20 knots winds and gale force gusts up to 35 knots possible. A
gale watch warning may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday for parts
of western lake superior.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 58 66 56 66 80 100 60 60
inl 60 66 53 60 90 100 70 80
brd 61 68 56 65 90 100 30 40
hyr 59 71 55 67 40 100 90 50
asx 56 74 56 70 40 90 90 50

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jts
short term... Jjm
long term... Jjm
aviation... Jts
marine... Jjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 16 mi67 min E 12 G 13 66°F 1015 hPa (-1.2)60°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 30 mi87 min S 1.9 G 4.1 72°F 1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI22 mi74 minSSW 810.00 miFair69°F54°F59%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASX

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3----S3Calm--S5S6--SE6S5--S7
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1 day agoCalm--------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS86S954CalmE6S6S75S4S4
2 days ago------Calm------CalmCalmSW3Calm--CalmCalm4N8N9N12N11NE10N10NE11NE9NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.