Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 3:49 PM   Moonset 4:02 AM

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LSZ147 Expires:202310052341;;822637 Fzus73 Kdlh 052332 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 632 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz121-147-052341- /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0035.000000t0000z-231005t2345z/ 632 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4673 9060 4674 9068 4687 9063 4695 9044 4713 9035 4714 9013 4672 9040 time - .mot - .loc 2331z 263deg 31kt 4709 9022 4693 9031 4678 9056

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 200907 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 407 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering light snow showers/flurries today. Very little to no additional accumulations expected.

- Near-critical fire weather concerns are expected today and Sunday due to low minimum relative humidity and breezy northwest winds.

- A clipper system will bring light rain late Monday through Tuesday. Some light snow could mix in Monday night into Tuesday.

- Additional precipitation chances late next week into weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Today:

Light snow showers/flurries that are ongoing early this morning due to steep low-level lapse rates and some saturation in the lower portion of the dendritic growth zone. This snow will gradually end over NE MN by late this morning, but linger for parts of NW/north-central WI until around midday as drier air works southeast across the area and erodes what little low- level moisture is left in the atmosphere. Very light dusting at best is expected from these snow showers, but many locations will not see any additional accumulations with little to no reductions in visibility.

Decreasing cloud cover occurs from northwest to southeast today, becoming mostly sunny this afternoon, with some scattered cumulus during the afternoon in NW WI. Winds out of the NW remain breezy today, gusting up to 20 to 25 mph for most through the afternoon. These winds combined with minimum afternoon RH values as low as 20-30% will likely lead to near-critical fire weather conditions for the afternoon into early evening. The lowest RH values will generally be from the Brainerd Lakes east into the Twin Ports and St. Croix River Valley. High temperatures will be a few degrees below average for this time of year, topping out in the mid to upper 40s.

Sunday:

Shortwave ridging will keep skies sunny to partly cloudy for most of the Northland with even drier air than today. Breezy northwest winds with gusts up to around 20 to 25 mph again combine with afternoon RH values of 20-30% to create near- critical fire weather conditions again. The lowest RH values on Sunday are expected to extend from central to the Twin Ports and east into the Pine Barrens of NW WI. Mixing heights in the atmosphere could reach as high as 750-800 mb, so the afternoon RH values may need to be refined even lower if newer model runs trend towards these higher mixing heights. Look for a warmer day, as well, with highs reaching the 50s for all but the tip of the MN Arrowhead and areas immediately near Lake Superior.

Monday - Tuesday:

A trough currently located just off the West Coast will close off and track east into southern Saskatchewan by 12Z Monday and then dive through the International Border/northern MN Monday night and through Lake Superior on Tuesday. Still some slight spread in the low tracks, the consensus is to track very close to or directly through the Northland.

Strong northerly winds will be ushering in increasing moisture and much warmer temperatures ahead of this system on Monday, leading to high temperatures in the low to mid 60s for most.
Precipitation will start in the form of rain Monday afternoon/evening given the warmer temperatures. However, some colder air aloft and at the surface gets pulled in with the backside of this system, so some light snow could mix in as well across northern MN, the MN Arrowhead, and possibly parts of the South Shore Monday night into Tuesday. While the predominate form of precipitation should be in the form of rain, the aforementioned locations have a 25-50% probability of seeing measurable snow accumulations (light dusting), though probabilities of 1" of snow are less than 10-20%. Rain and liquid water equivalent melt from the snow of around 1/4 to 1/3 inch of liquid aren't out of the realm of possibilities with this system, though these higher amounts look to be relegated to the Arrowhead and NW WI for the most part.

Wednesday - Next Weekend:

Another ridge is poised to bring drier weather to the central CONUS for Wednesday through much of Thursday before another trough swings through late week into next weekend and brings the Northland its next shot at precipitation. Still a lot of spread in the timing/location of this trough and resulting transport of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico late next week, so precip chances and amounts will still need some refining. The temperature signal mid to late next week looks to be around to slightly above average for late April, which would generally equate to seeing highs in the 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Isolated to scattered light snow showers continue across parts of Northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight, becoming more flurries and ending from west to east mid to late Saturday morning. Have a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings, with visibility mainly remaining above 6SM with any of the showers. Have kept VCSH in TAFs for these showers given low predictability/coverage of the showers. Expect ceilings to lower to more widespread MVFR overnight, improving back to VFR mid to late morning from northwest to southeast and turning SCT/FEW this afternoon.

Northwest winds continue throughout the TAF period, with a few gusts up to 25 knots under the snow showers. Otherwise, expect gusts to primarily be 16-22 knots today before weakening this evening.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Wind forecasts have continued their downward trend for today and Sunday. Northwest winds with gusts to around 20-25 knots fall below Small Craft Advisory criteria later this morning and afternoon, remaining elevated longest for the Apostle Islands.
However, there appears to be a period of time from this evening into tonight where winds turn westerly and gusts drop below 20 knots, so Small Craft Advisories were removed for this evening and tonight. A short-fuse Small Craft Advisory may be needed for wind gusts to 20-25 knots later tonight into early Sunday morning. Winds become light and variable Sunday night, becoming southerly by Monday morning. Winds are expected to turn lighter as Sunday progresses given warmer air aloft creating a more stable marine layer that would inhibit stronger gusts from reaching the water surface. Winds then turn light and variable Sunday night before turning breezier out of the south on Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>143-146-148.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ144- 145.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LSZ147- 150.

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