Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield city, WI

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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 090555 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1255 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 933 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Will leave the Severe Thunderstorm Watch as is. SPC mesoscale analysis and CAM trends through 02 UTC favor a strong to severe thunderstorm threat into much of the night. Thunderstorms developing across northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota are expected to continue to propagate northeast into the night with sufficient instability and effective shear to support at least a marginal severe threat. Precipitable water values near 1.8 inches with continued strong moisture transport via the low level jet and training of storms supports an increasing flash flood threat.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Severe weather is the focus in the short term, especially from late afternoon into late evening. Latest satellite imagery was showing cumulus growing over the western half of the Northland and radar shows a few showers/storms have formed. These are elevated given that substantial MLCIN remains across most of the area. However, the RAP shows the MLCIN diminishing by late afternoon as most of the cloud from the earlier convection has diminished and strong heating was occurring. The surface cold and warm fronts in addition to the low level jet of 25 to 35 knots, an upper wave, and jet streak will all contribute to forcing and sustenance of the storms. We should see thunderstorms increase in both coverage and intensity between late this afternoon and early evening over northern Minnesota and this evening over northern Wisconsin. All modes of severe weather will be possible including large hail to golfball size, damaging wind to 70 mph , flash flooding, and a tornado or two. Plenty of instability will be present with MLCAPE forecast to increase to 1500-3500 J/KG, deep layer shear from 25 to 35 knots will be supportive, as will steep mid level lapse rates, and high PWAT values from 1.6 to 2.0 inches. Storm mode should start out with some discreet cells but most of the CAMs show coverage will transition to clusters or lines. Low level hodographs show decent veering and the longer storms can remain discreet the better the chance for a possible tornado. In addition to the tornado, hail, and wind threat will be very heavy rain. Several strong thunderstorm complexes may track over the same areas leading to heavy rainfall. We tossed the idea around for a Flash Flood Watch but opted to not issue at this time. Much of the Northland has seen below normal precipitation over the past week and in some areas of northern Minnesota, the past few weeks. That said, localized flash flooding will be possible late today into tonight. The storms are expected to diminish but not end entirely late tonight.

Another round of storms will be possible on Thursday as the front is moving through the region slowly. The best chance for strong to severe storms will be over parts of northern Wisconsin which will remain ahead of the front and should recover from overnight convection. Elsewhere, we have POPs as far west as eastern Minnesota and the Arrowhead which remain just ahead of the front. Highs will be in the eighties but dewpoints will be lower than today, except in northern Wisconsin where mid sixties to around seventy will occur again.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

The extended period will feature a building ridge over the west that will last into the weekend as the northern portion of the ridge moves east. An upper low will then move east and push the ridge east backing the upper winds to more southwest late in the period as troughing takes over.

Friday will be dry and warm with weak ridging. Highs will range from around eighty to the mid eighties in northern Wisconsin. Dewpoints will be lower though and be in the fifties. There will be a few chances for showers/storms over the weekend as a couple shortwaves move through the region. However, coverage of the showers/storms do not look to be particularly high. Highs will again be from 77 to 85 with dewpoints from the mid fifties to lower sixties for most areas.

A brief lull in precipitation chances will occur Sunday night into Monday across most of the Northland then we have POPs again Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper trough moves closer to the Northland. Highs from Monday through Wednesday will be from 78 to 85 for most areas.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Thunderstorms will affect most terminals overnight, with INL/HYR the least likely to see significant impacts. Storms could be strong to severe, bringing strong winds and large hail. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be light and generally from the south, but thunderstorms will cause winds to fluctuate in both speed and direction. Expect this activity to continue overnight and ending for the most part Thursday morning. Mainly VFR conditions are expected Thursday with a cold front sliding through, though some afternoon showers and thunderstorms may develop which could impact HYR.

MARINE. Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will impact the nearshore waters tonight, particularly along the North Shore from Duluth to Silver Bay and the entire South Shore. Winds will generally be southerly, but expect rapid changes in both speed and direction at times tonight as thunderstorms move through. In addition, hail will be possible as well in stronger thunderstorms. Winds will become west to southwesterly tomorrow as a cold front moves through during the afternoon. Thunderstorms will continue to be possible particularly along the South Shore during the day Thursday. Light westerly winds Thursday night into Friday with high pressure moving in.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 64 84 59 83 / 90 30 10 0 INL 62 83 58 79 / 20 20 0 0 BRD 65 84 59 84 / 80 10 0 0 HYR 65 85 60 84 / 40 40 20 0 ASX 66 87 62 86 / 100 50 10 0

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . None.

UPDATE . PA SHORT TERM . Melde LONG TERM . Melde AVIATION . JDS MARINE . JDS

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI	16 mi	53 min	SE 19 G 26	68°F			1008.2 hPa (-1.2)	67°F
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI	29 mi	73 min	SE 7 G 15	69°F			1008.5 hPa
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI	30 mi	73 min	WSW 4.1 G 8	67°F			1010.8 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN	36 mi	73 min	SSW 8 G 11	69°F			1009.1 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI	22 mi	60 min	ESE 6	10.00 mi	Thunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain	66°F	64°F	93%	1010 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASX

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN

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