Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayfield, WI

Version 3.4 		NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen
Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:21PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 5:30 PM CDT (22:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:00PMMoonset 9:01AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ147 Expires:201910010230;;020673 Fzus73 Kdlh 010026 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 726 Pm Cdt Mon Sep 30 2019 Lsz140>147-162-010230- 726 Pm Cdt Mon Sep 30 2019
.an line of Thunderstorms approaching western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Grand portage to grand marais mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 726 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated a line of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from 13 nm northwest of beaver bay, to 16 nm west of duluth lift bridge channel, moving east at 40 knots. Locations impacted include... Raspberry island lighthouse, split rock bay, castle danger, sand island, barkers island, sugar loaf cove, horseshoe bay and safe harbor, tofte safe harbor, duluth lift bridge channel, twin points safe harbor, tofte, beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, bayfield peninsula sea caves, brule point, herbster, larsmont, superior harbor, and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4669 9229 4668 9224 4679 9214 4715 9149 4754 9093 4773 9051 4799 8945 4690 9080 4693 9086 4692 9095 4684 9110 4674 9149 4666 9201 4671 9210 4665 9213 4664 9229
LSZ147

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield city, WI
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location: 46.86, -90.85     debug

Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 162041
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
341 pm cdt Wed oct 16 2019

Short term (this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 341 pm cdt Wed oct 16 2019
northwesterly flow aloft, in combination with some weak to neutral
temperature advection at 850mb, and an upper level impulse to
generate plenty of cloud cover across the area. Pockets of rain
showers were also occurring, especially over the arrowhead. High
pressure at the surface has kept winds relatively light.

Tonight, an upper level short wave trof will move over the region in
the continued northwest flow aloft. Additional upper level impulses
are progged to move over the area. The high pressure remains in
charge at the surface. Moisture below 2k feet is marginal for
precipitation. Model ensembles including the SREF and GEFS suggest
a dry forecast for tonight and have followed.

Upper level ridging covers the forecast area Thursday, a southwest
flow underneath the ridge, with warm air advection in the afternoon
points toward warmer MAX temps and more moisture. However, a
southeast surface wind precludes a good bump up in temps, which has
occurred in the recent past. Ensembles also indicate wind speeds
will be held in check.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 341 pm cdt Wed oct 16 2019
the main forecast concerns for the long term continue to involve
a warming trend Friday into the weekend and the potential for a
low pressure system to bring strong winds and precipitation to
the region early next week.

A high amplitude mid- and upper-level ridge will slide farther
east into the great lakes region Thursday night and Friday while
a shortwave trough develops over the northern plains and canadian
prairies. The trough will support a surface low over southern
manitoba by Friday evening with a weak cool front extending
farther south into the upper midwest. There is a small chance of
rain showers Friday night and early Saturday morning with the
passing system. Boundary layer mixing should continue through
much of Thursday night, which will buoy temperatures in the
middle 30s to low 40s. Have trended temps above the consensus
blend for Friday with warm air aloft and efficient mixing.

Temperatures will reach the low 50s in the high terrain of the
sawtooth mountains to the low 60s in north-central and central
minnesota east into portions of northwest wisconsin. Wind speeds
were adjusted slightly higher, too. A little cooler, but still
higher than the consensus blend for Saturday as efficient mixing
is expected once again. Overnight lows will be in the low to
middle 40s with highs in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees.
Attention then shifts to a low pressure system which will take
shape in the central plains and lift into northern minnesota and
adjacent areas of northwest ontario from early Sunday morning
through Tuesday. Several differences in the timing, strength, and
track of the low are found between the long range models.

Confidence is high that precipitation will affect the northland,
with some combination of rain, thunderstorms, and snow likely. At
this time it seems the trend is for less snow and more rain with
each successive model run, and any accumulation will likely be
relegated to elevated or grassy surfaces. Keep up to date with
the latest forecast through the weekend as details regarding this
system are refined.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 105 pm cdt Wed oct 16 2019
high pressure will influence the region through the TAF period,
which will lead to light winds this afternoon and calm winds
overnight into Thursday. Clouds will linger through the TAF period
with MVFR ceilings expected this afternoon and early evening. Most
short term model guidance suggests that ceilings will rise toVFR
around or soon after 00z this evening, though MVFR ceilings will
likely remain at inl for the entire period. Ceilings may lower to
MVFR again late tonight.

Marine
Issued at 341 pm cdt Wed oct 16 2019
a building ridge of high pressure will limit wind speeds over the
waters during the next 48 hours. Hazardous conditions are not
expected. An area of low pressure is forecast to move from the
central plains through the upper midwest and across northeast
ontario Sunday night through Tuesday. A period of stronger winds
is likely and may result in conditions hazardous for smaller
vessels.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 35 47 38 58 0 0 0 10
inl 32 49 38 58 0 0 0 0
brd 33 53 42 61 0 0 0 0
hyr 33 51 37 60 0 0 0 0
asx 36 52 36 61 0 0 0 0

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Gsf
long term... Huyck js
aviation... Js
marine... Huyck js

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 16 mi30 min W 14 G 15 46°F 1016.4 hPa (-0.9)40°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 30 mi50 min WNW 11 G 13 47°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
24hr		N4
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G16
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G12
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1 day
ago		SW1
SW5
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W1
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NE2
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NE6
G9
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N3
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NE5
G11
NE12
G19
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G16
NE11
G18
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G7
N6
G13
2 days
ago		NW6
G9
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G11
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G13
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G15
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G12
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G18
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G19
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G25
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SW5
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G11
W6
W6
G10
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G11
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G11
W11
W8
G13
S5
G8
SW6
Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI22 mi37 minW 710.00 miOvercast45°F37°F77%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASX

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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AM		1
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PM
Last 24hrNW6NW4N7N5NW8NW4NW5NW6NW6NW5NW5NW5NW7NW6NW5W5NW4NW8NW9NW9NW10NW8NW6W7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3N5CalmN5E4NE7NE5NE7N11N12N11N8
2 days agoSW6SW5SW3SW6W6SW7S8W9SW9SW9SW9SW9SW9SW5SW7SW10SW11SW10W9SW13
G19		SW9W7W9W5
Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.