Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield city, WI

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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 081523 AAA AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Duluth MN 1023 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1006 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Updated for the 10 AM CDT Marine Discussion below.

SHORT TERM. (Today through Thursday) Issued at 440 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

A weak disturbance is traversing across the International Border this morning, perhaps dropping a few sprinkles or flurries. Elsewhere, skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy. The main story today will be a cold front that will pass through this morning. As it does, northwest winds will increase and become rather gusty by mid-day and into the afternoon as a tight pressure gradient sets up. A potent upper level trough that will become closed off will move into the region from the northwest today, and this will produce a good deal of lift that will create some rather impressive mixing depths. Many of the short range models suggest mixing to 700 mb or perhaps even higher today for much of the region. This will allow for mid- level winds to mix down to the surface, and this will likely bring gusts as high as 25 to 35 mph today. In addition, enough moisture combined with fairly continuous lifting from the upper level trough will bring chances for pop-up variety convective showers late this afternoon. Precipitation type will be dependent on the intensity of the showers, with light rain most of the time but potentially some snow showers in areas of heavier precipitation due to adiabatic cooling. Not anticipating much QPF with these showers since they should be scattered and short in duration. Temperatures will warm up into the 40s today, but temperature fluctuations are expected in the afternoon due to passing showers. Expect a mix of clouds and sun today with generally increasing clouds in the afternoon.

The upper level closed low will continue to pivot about the region tonight into Thursday with gusty northwesterly cold air advection. This will keep a chance for some sprinkles/flurries overnight tonight, though the intensity should be less without the convective instability created by sunlight. There could be scattered dustings of snowfall as temperatures drop into the 20s overnight. Scattered showers of rain or snow are possible Thursday as the upper trough continues to pivot through, with the best chance over the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin closest to the closed off low to the east. Highs will reach the upper 30s to low 40s with mostly cloudy to overcast skies expected.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 440 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

A vertically stacked low pressure system will slowly propagate east Thursday night into Friday, bringing some lighter winds and dry weather to the region. Temperatures will rise into the 40s with sunshine expected.

A fairly complex pattern is expected for the remainder of the extended period. An upper level trough will move into the eastern Rockies Saturday into Sunday, bringing in cold air from Canada and developing a strong surface low over the Plains. There remains disagreement between the models this far out, but the general consensus is for a strong spring storm to develop somewhere over the midwest, bringing the potential for accumulating snow for parts of the region. The GFS is further northwest with the low pressure center, bringing the highest QPF into northwest wisconsin. The Euro, on the other hand, has the surface low further southeast but a broader QPF field spreading perhaps into northeastern Minnesota. Both the GFS and Euro suggest the low will become nearly vertically stacked over or near Lake Superior Monday into Tuesday, which would keep snow or mixed precipitation chances for several days early next week. This system will have to be monitored in the next several days, as changes in the storm track and intensity are expected.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 649 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

VFR conditions are expected through the morning. An MVFR cloud deck over INL should depart quickly this morning. A cold front will pass through from west to east this morning, and gusty northwesterly winds will develop behind it, lasting today through Thursday. Gusts from 25 to 30 kt will be possible at times. Another concern starting generally late this afternoon is the possibility for some scattered showers of rain or snow. These could bring very brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities. The best chance for any reduced ceilings or visibilities due to showers will be late this afternoon into the early evening.

MARINE. Issued at 1023 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

West to northwest winds will prevail across western Lake Superior today through the day Thursday, thanks to a tight pressure gradient building across the region. Winds have already become gusty this morning, particularly near the Duluth canal area, with gusts reported between 25 to 30 knots. We have bumped up the start time of the Small Craft Advisory to the present time due to the winds already starting to gust. Wave heights are increasing, but they seem to be around 1 to 2 feet at the most at this time.

The rest of the Small Craft Advisory remains unchanged, which will expand across the rest of western Lake Superior for this evening through the day Thursday. Gusts will remain between 20 to 30 knots, with some stronger gusts up to 35 knots possible along the Bayfield Peninsula, especially late tonight through Thursday morning. Wave heights along the Bayfield Peninsula will increase to between 3 to 5 feet tonight into Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 48 27 39 23 / 20 20 10 0 INL 43 23 38 18 / 30 30 10 0 BRD 47 27 40 23 / 20 20 10 0 HYR 52 28 42 24 / 10 20 10 0 ASX 50 29 41 26 / 10 20 10 0

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-146>148.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ140>145.



UPDATE . JTS SHORT TERM . JDS LONG TERM . JDS AVIATION . JDS MARINE . JTS

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI	16 mi	35 min	WSW 16 G 20	37°F			1006.2 hPa (+0.0)	33°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI	30 mi	55 min	W 7 G 14	51°F			1005.8 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN

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NW12 G17

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1 day ago

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NE7 G17

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI	22 mi	42 min	WNW 13 G 23	10.00 mi	Fair	51°F	34°F	52%	1007 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASX

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (11,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN

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