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LSZ147 Expires:202310052341;;564170 Fzus73 Kdlh 052332 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 632 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz121-147-052341- /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0035.000000t0000z-231005t2345z/ 632 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled...
the affected areas were... Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi... Sand island to bayfield wi...
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat...lon 4673 9060 4674 9068 4687 9063 4695 9044 4713 9035 4714 9013 4672 9040 time...mot...loc 2331z 263deg 31kt 4709 9022 4693 9031 4678 9056

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 040515 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1115 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

DISCUSSION
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 422 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Key Messages...

1) Low chances for light snow tonight through Tuesday with weak systems affecting the area. Little to no accumulations are expected.

2) A late week warm-up will see temperatures significantly above normal for the latter half of the work week, with highs and lows more than 10 degrees above normal.

3) An interesting system is developing for late next week and next weekend, which may bring significant precipitation to the area. Due to the warm temperatures, a rain/snow mixture is expected.

A low pressure system moving into the NY/PA area this afternoon is producing some rather active weather there with thunderstorms, but leaving the forecast area in an in-between col of somewhat unsettled weather with clouds and rather persistent flurries over the area. This continues tonight into early Monday before a shortwave dives out of Manitoba and across the forecast area Monday night. The forcing is relatively weak as the shortwave is mostly to our south, but there should be at least a short period of light precipitation that moves across the area. I have included some lingering lake effects on Tuesday with the strong north- northwest flow, lingering moisture and just enough lake to 850mb temperature difference to trigger it. Temperatures tonight through Tuesday will be near to above normal with highs rising above freezing for most areas during the daytime, then dipping into the 20s overnight.

A warm front will push through the area from the west on Wednesday, which may be able to bring some small precipitation chances across the area. The warm front brings in enough warm air for this precipitation to be a wintry mixture. NAEFS Precipitable water anomalies show we should have enough moisture for precipitation, so have some high chances pops in parts of the area. Also, Wednesday through Friday temperatures will be above to significantly above normal with an upper level ridge and warm air that pushes into the area. Record warm low temperatures are a possibility, with overnight low temperatures and even a few daytime high temperatures more than 10 degrees above normal.

There is general agreement that a fairly potent system will move across the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes in the Thursday- Saturday time frame. This system has the potential to bring us some accumulating precipitation, even if it does appear to start out as rain and slowly transition over to snow before it moves out again. Behind it we should see some lingering lake effect precipitation along the south shore through the weekend. Whether this system can bring the area some much asked for snowfall remains a big question mark, but there is a possibility.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

A mix of MVFR ceiling and VFR conditions across the region. IFR ceilings have developed to the southwest of BRD and should advect in during the morning. Models are bringing in an area of LIFR, but did not have confidence it would reach BRD, therefore have kept out of the forecast for now.

MARINE
Issued at 950 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Quiet weather across western Lake Superior for the next couple of days. Winds will be light and variable overnight increasing to 10 knots out of the southwest with occasional gusts to 15 knots.
Waves will be less than 2 feet. By Monday winds will switch around to the northwest at 5 to 10 knots.

Winds are expected to increase out of the south towards mid-week.
As a result waves will increase which could lead to hazardous conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 25 34 24 33 / 10 10 10 0 INL 24 32 17 30 / 10 10 0 0 BRD 23 34 21 34 / 0 10 10 0 HYR 23 37 24 35 / 10 10 10 10 ASX 23 38 27 36 / 10 10 20 20

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.

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