Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Missoula, MT
January 12, 2025 6:20 PM MST (01:20 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 8:16 AM Sunset 5:12 PM Moonrise 3:36 PM Moonset 7:53 AM |
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FXUS65 KMSO 122027 AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 127 PM MST Sun Jan 12 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- High confidence (70 to 90%) for the coldest airmass of the season to descend upon the Northern Rockies next weekend.
This week begins with seasonably cold mornings on Monday and Tuesday, accompanied by lingering cloud cover and/or freezing fog in some areas. While light snow is possible on Wednesday, the chances remain low. The primary focus is on the Arctic cold front expected late Friday, which will bring a significant drop in temperatures and light snowfall, marking the coldest conditions of the season.
The arrival of Arctic air is well-supported by models, but significant uncertainty remains regarding the extent and intensity of the cold air, particularly in the Northern Rockies.
This region lies near the western edge of the Arctic influence, with a northerly to northwesterly flow, resulting in notable variations in model projections for temperature extremes.
Near the Divide: - 90% probability of temperatures below zero by Sunday.
Western Montana and portions of central Idaho: - 50% probability of temperatures below zero by Sunday.
Temperatures and Precipitation Outlook
Winds will strengthen from the west on Thursday ahead of a trough, expected to dig into the region from the north. By Friday evening, model guidance is in fair agreement for the Arctic front to move into Montana and Idaho, bringing a rapid drop in temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to plummet to single digits and below zero by Sunday. Winds will shift to northerly and easterly, further reinforcing the cold air intrusion.
Snowfall with the Arctic front is expected to remain light, generally less than a couple of inches, but localized heavier snow is suggested by some models. The combination of light snow and dropping temperatures may result in slick surfaces, particularly on roadways.
Recommendations
Prepare for significantly colder temperatures and potentially hazardous conditions, including slick surfaces. Protect newborn livestock.
AVIATION
Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals widespread stratus covering western Montana and north-central Idaho. Marginal instability is present, supporting the development of isolated snow showers. These showers may cause brief visibility reductions, primarily at higher elevations. Model cross-sections indicate persistent low-level moisture through at least tonight, which will likely maintain obscured terrain conditions across the region.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
ID...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 127 PM MST Sun Jan 12 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- High confidence (70 to 90%) for the coldest airmass of the season to descend upon the Northern Rockies next weekend.
This week begins with seasonably cold mornings on Monday and Tuesday, accompanied by lingering cloud cover and/or freezing fog in some areas. While light snow is possible on Wednesday, the chances remain low. The primary focus is on the Arctic cold front expected late Friday, which will bring a significant drop in temperatures and light snowfall, marking the coldest conditions of the season.
The arrival of Arctic air is well-supported by models, but significant uncertainty remains regarding the extent and intensity of the cold air, particularly in the Northern Rockies.
This region lies near the western edge of the Arctic influence, with a northerly to northwesterly flow, resulting in notable variations in model projections for temperature extremes.
Near the Divide: - 90% probability of temperatures below zero by Sunday.
Western Montana and portions of central Idaho: - 50% probability of temperatures below zero by Sunday.
Temperatures and Precipitation Outlook
Winds will strengthen from the west on Thursday ahead of a trough, expected to dig into the region from the north. By Friday evening, model guidance is in fair agreement for the Arctic front to move into Montana and Idaho, bringing a rapid drop in temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to plummet to single digits and below zero by Sunday. Winds will shift to northerly and easterly, further reinforcing the cold air intrusion.
Snowfall with the Arctic front is expected to remain light, generally less than a couple of inches, but localized heavier snow is suggested by some models. The combination of light snow and dropping temperatures may result in slick surfaces, particularly on roadways.
Recommendations
Prepare for significantly colder temperatures and potentially hazardous conditions, including slick surfaces. Protect newborn livestock.
AVIATION
Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals widespread stratus covering western Montana and north-central Idaho. Marginal instability is present, supporting the development of isolated snow showers. These showers may cause brief visibility reductions, primarily at higher elevations. Model cross-sections indicate persistent low-level moisture through at least tonight, which will likely maintain obscured terrain conditions across the region.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
ID...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMSO
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMSO
Wind History Graph: MSO
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Pacific Northwest
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Missoula, MT,
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