NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS65 KMSO 111247 AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 547 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023

UPDATE
Added a winter weather advisory for the Flathead/Mission valleys and the Seeley/Swan region. A mix of slushy snow and light freezing rain will make slick conditions through the morning commute.




AVIATION
Areas of fog and low stratus will continue through this morning, impacting airfields KMSO and KGPI. Fog will generally improve as a weather system approaches this morning. A Canadian cold front will begin to cross the Continental Divide this morning, making it to KGPI around 11/15z and to KMSO around 11/19z. Ahead of the front, a burst of precipitation is expected, primarily between 11/10z and 11/16z for KGPI and between 11/14z and 11/20z for KMSO. Precipitation type will be a wintry mix of slushy snow and light freezing rain as snow levels hover at or just above the valleys of western Montana. With and behind the front, winds will transition to northeasterly with gusts of 20 to 25 kts possible, especially through exposed valleys/terrain. KBTM, KHRF and KSMN may also see brief periods of snow showers, but will be more scattered in nature. Drier air moves into the region tonight to end precipitation, but stratus and fog will likely develop by Tuesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 213 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023/

DISCUSSION...A weak cold front is slowly moving south out of Canada this morning and is expected to cross into northwest Montana a little before sunrise and then into west-central Montana by mid morning. A brief burst of precipitation is expected to accompany the front, particularly across northwest Montana near the Continental Divide. Snow levels are hovering at or just above valley bottoms, making precipitation type a tough forecast. Likely a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain and snow will occur.
Accumulations will be minimal, but conditions could become slick during the morning commute due to light ice accumulations and slushy snow. We currently do not have the Flathead/Mission valley in a winter weather advisory, but this may need to be adjusted as we see how precipitation develops through the morning. Mountain showers will continue area wide today, particularly in southwest Montana and north central Idaho, but additional accumulations will be minimal.

Drier air moves in behind the front this evening, and should generally reduce showers across the area. A northerly flow will then build over western Montana and north central Idaho for Monday night into Tuesday. Lingering clouds and even some light flurries will be possible.

By Wednesday, high pressure will migrate over the region. Stable conditions will likely limit valley heating and the potential for fog and stratus looks likely, especially considering the recent snowfall across the region. On Thursday, a weak wave of energy will temporarily move through the ridge of high pressure, bringing some showers to northwest Montana. Overall stable conditions with valley inversions will persist however. High pressure will largely remain in control into next week.

AVIATION...Areas of fog and low stratus will continue through this morning, impacting airfields KMSO and KGPI. Fog will generally improve as a weather system approaches this morning. A Canadian cold front will begin to cross the Continental Divide this morning, making it to KGPI around 11/15z and to KMSO around 11/19z. Ahead of the front, a burst of precipitation is expected, primarily between 11/10z and 11/16z for KGPI and between 11/14z and 11/20z for KMSO. Precipitation type will be a wintry mix of slushy snow and light freezing rain as snow levels hover at or just above the valleys of western Montana. With and behind the front, winds will transition to northeasterly with gusts of 20 to 25 kts possible, especially through exposed valleys/terrain. KBTM, KHRF and KSMN may also see brief periods of snow showers, but will be more scattered in nature. Drier air moves into the region tonight to end precipitation, but stratus and fog will likely develop by Tuesday morning.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for Flathead/Mission Valleys
Potomac/Seeley Lake Region
West Glacier Region.

ID...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Missoula, MT,