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FXUS63 KBIS 022357 AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Bismarck ND 557 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 556 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Little changes to the forecast for this update. We kept the slightly higher PoPs (20-30%) in the southwest tomorrow as the transient shortwave passes across the area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Overall look for a quick chance of snow tonight with some breezy and mild conditions on Sunday.

Mainly clear skies with a light southerly wind will continue through much of this evening. Overnight tonight will see a weak clipper system move across the state from west to east. This could increase clouds cover to the area, and bring some light snow to the southwest. With the increase in clouds comes slightly warmer overnight lows in the teens and 20s.

Precipitation from this wave looks to diminish Sunday morning, although cloud cover may linger into the afternoon in some southwestern and south central areas. The gradient from this wave could bring some breezy northwest winds through the day Sunday, especially in the southwest. At this time advisory winds are not expected, although winds could gust over 30 MPH in the far southwest. Temperatures for Sunday will be slightly cooler yet still mild with highs in the 30s, with some lower 40s in the south.

LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

An active start to the week will give way to a warming trend, followed by a slightly active pattern later in the week.

The next clipper system looks to push through Sunday night through Monday. Chances for rain and snow will accompany this system and may push into the west overnight Sunday night, then move eastward through Monday. Right now accumulations look limited given the mild temperatures (highs in the 30s and 40s) that are still expected with this system. The biggest impact with this system could be the potentially strong winds with this system. 850 mb winds are quite strong as this system moves through, with modest pressure rises also expected. NBM winds increased even further today, giving some potentially high wind criteria in the southwest with advisory level possible across much of western and central portions. NBM probabilities of over 45 MPH wind gusts during this time period are quite high in some areas (over 70%), with over 55 MPH wind gusts over 30% in some areas. Decided to leave in the higher NBM winds for now, with the decision for any highlights being left for later shifts.

A building ridge and dry westerly flow then brings us less wind and warming temperatures through mid next week. Wednesday still looks to be the warmest day. With enough mixing and limited cloud cover some areas could see highs reach into the lower 60s. The breakdown of this ridge later in the week still brings wide uncertainty when it comes to chances of precipitation. The ensemble mean is still leaning towards split flow with the lesser trough moving over the area. These types of patterns bring limited precipitation typically, although there still remains some ensemble members that try to perform more than this mean. Overall NBM brings in slight chances for snow through next weekend, yet picking one particular period of impacts still remains uncertain.
With this pattern there is higher confidence temperatures will cool. However this cooling still brings highs and lows to near or even perhaps slightly above normal.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 556 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Currently VFR conditions across all terminals. Mostly clear skies as the sun sets, with a couple high cirrus clouds across KJMS. The next push of clouds comes through later tonight, arriving at the western terminals around 10z, and moving east into early tomorrow morning.
Some MVFR ceilings are possible with this wave, though currently too little agreement between models to warrant anything more than a SCT deck. Some gusty west-northwesterly winds across the southwest will arrive tomorrow morning as well, with the potential for some light showers, however not enough agreement to put VCSH in at KDIK.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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