SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure remains in place for the next few days with a few passing disturbances and weakening fronts bringing some deeper marine clouds and cooler temperatures at times through the weekend. Stronger high pressure may build and bring some light offshore flow early next week, bringing temperatures back above normal.



SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A weak disturbance may induce a few light showers in portions of the interior (especially toward the Cascades) on Friday, but most areas will stay dry and some additional cloud cover (and resulting cooling in temperatures)
will remain the most notable impact to sensible weather. Yet another front approaches and likely fades away as it stalls over British Columbia, again leaving most of western Washington dry.
Temperatures trend a little warmer into Saturday as a result, making it closer to seasonal normals. Sunday will likely be a return to cloudy cool and somewhat wetter across the region as the next front is likely able to hold together better and bring some additional moisture. While ensembles still have a fair amount of variability with this system, we're likely to see rainfall in the one quarter to half inch range near the coast and in the mountains (especially to the north). Confidence remains lower in the lowlands of the Puget Sound region and especially south along I-5 through Lewis County.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Ensemble guidance has consolidate to favor a building ridge across the western U.S.
early next week, which would support warming temperatures and decreasing cloud cover. This could bring temperatures back into the mid to upper 70s through much of the interior, with the warmest locations approaching 80. Offshore low-level flow would likely bring this warming to the coast as well, as the sea-breeze will be limited or eliminated. Fortunately the antecedent moisture will likely hinder any significant fire weather concerns, but will need to continue to monitor the evolution of the pattern. The ridge likely breaks down by Wednesday or Thursday, again opening the door for cooler temperatures and increasing clouds and rain chances. That said, spread in the ensemble guidance does increase once again in this time period and forecast confidence decreases again. Cullen



AVIATION
Northwesterly flow aloft will continue tonight into Friday as an upper level trough moves eastward allowing for ridging to build along the coast. Onshore flow persists at the surface...generally light for most interior terminals however those along the coast and Strait could see winds up to 10-15 kts with occasional gusts this evening before starting to taper off after midnight.

Widespread VFR conditions this evening although starting to see some stratus creep onto the coast, resulting in isolated MVFR conditions there. Cigs gradually eroding overnight with widespread MVFR conditions in place over W WA by 12Z Friday morning. Locations that favor lower cigs may see IFR conditions emerge from time to time.
Model guidance also suggesting the potential for fog around PAE, with both IFR cigs and some vis restrictions expected there mainly between 12-18Z. Widespread VFR conditions expected to return early Friday afternoon in the 18-21Z time frame.

KSEA...VFR conditions expected to remain in place tonight and into early Friday. MVFR conditions expected to emerge at or around 12Z and persist through the remainder of the morning. VFR conditions expected to return by 20Z with skies clearing by 00Z. West to southwesterly winds 4-8 kts this evening becoming light and variable tonight. Switch to southerly winds early Friday morning before becoming more northwesterly by 10Z. Speeds returning to 4-8 kts for remainder of TAF period.

18



MARINE
Ridging will remain offshore through this weekend, keeping onshore flow in place with northwesterly winds over the coastal waters. Gusty winds to 25 kt are expected over the outer coastal waters tonight into Friday as well as over the central and eastern portions of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. That said, inherited SCA looks good and will remain in place. These winds will also allow seas to build up to 8 to 9 feet at 8 to 10 seconds in the outer coastal waters. In addition, areas of patchy to dense fog are possible over the east Strait of Juan de Fuca, Admiralty Inlet, and Northern Inland Waters Friday morning. The fog may bring visibilities down to a quarter of a mile in some spots.

The remainder of this weekend into next week will see calmer winds out of the west or southwest as the ridge moves inland. A couple of weak frontal systems will move through the area next week, but are not expected to produce significant winds. Seas will drop to 4 to 6 feet over the weekend, increasing to 5 to 7 feet next week.

HPR/18



SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.