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FXUS61 KCAR 101140 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 640 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Intensifying low pressure tracks across Maine Monday and will draw a cold front across the region Monday evening. High pressure builds Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday. High pressure builds south of the waters Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
630am Update...
Just small tweaks downward first couple hours with temperatures based on observations, otherwise no changes.

Early This Morning...
Lots of low clouds and fog in the late night hours. Some places having visibility to one quarter mile or less, while others are having just a very low cloud deck with okay visibility. Fog is a result of warm advection over an increasingly wet snowpack as temps creep above freezing. Only a few protected spots remain a hair below freezing, with most places in the mid 30s.

Today...
Expect temperatures to slowly climb today, though not as much as previously expected and have backed off on temps some. Looking for highs in the 40s along/east of I-95, with around 40 west/north of I-95. Warm advection continues along with a wet snowpack, and expect low clouds to continue through the day with a bit less fog toward the afternoon as the fog lifts into a low cloud deck for most places. Increasing rain chances toward late afternoon as the next strong weather system moves in.

Tonight and Monday...
Strong weather system we've been advertising still on track.
Overall setup is quite dynamic, with a slow-moving frontal boundary setting up over the forecast area oriented SW/NE tonight. Then with the support of a strong SW upper level jet, a surface low rapidly intensifies as it moves NE along the front and over the area Monday. Lots of moisture to work with, with very high precipitable water values along/east of the front.

Not a whole lot of changes in thinking as model spread is getting smaller and confidence is growing. Still some important details to work out though. Much of this revolves around the position of the front and track of the surface low as it moves along the front, as a lot hinges on this location. General consensus is for the front to position itself roughly along I-95, then perhaps drift a touch west Monday as the low strengthens and rides NE along the front, then quickly crash eastward as the surface low passes. But there is still about 50 miles of uncertainty east or west of the frontal and low track position. The heaviest rain axis of 3-4 inches should align roughly with the front. East of the front is where the strongest winds will be late tonight into Monday. If the front sets up further east, areas along I-95 could miss out on the winds entirely. However, if the front sets up further west, high wind criteria could be reached along I-95 from Bangor to Houlton.
Went with an advisory for now for I-95, with a warning further S/E where we are more confident in the high winds. It looks especially bad toward Eastport, with gusts to 70 mph likely. The position of the front also will impact where the snow falls.
Heavy snow looking quite likely along the Quebec border and western North Woods, and issued a winter storm watch. However, more uncertainty east toward Rt 11 in Aroostook County, as can't rule out some of the heavier snow getting this far east depending on where the front sets up and who gets into the deeper cold air. For now, kept most of the accumulations from Deboullie and Allagash west, with just minor accumulations further east late Monday as the low passes and it quickly changes to snow before ending.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Sfc low will be departing into the Maritimes Mon night with cyclonic flow remaining over the CWA with cold advection allowing gusty west winds to 25-30 mph during the nighttime hours. Upr trof passes into New Brunswick after midnight with snow showers diminishing across the north.

Tuesday will see brief s/wv ridge build over the area with partly- mostly sunny skies expected during the day. High clouds approach from the west late in the afternoon as large upr low swings twd Quebec. High temps on Tuesday will be noticeably cooler than Monday with highs in the m/u 20s across the north and lwr 30s for Downeast.

Next front will approach from Canada late Tuesday night with chcs for snow showers increasing across nrn areas by daybreak. Given clouds and srly flow min temps will be around 5 degrees above normal Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
With cold front swinging thru at the start of the period, indications are being shown for potential snow squalls across nrn and central areas depending on timing of fropa. For now have introduced chc snow showers north of the Baxter Region during the day Wednesday.

High pressure looks to keep pcpn at bay through the end of the week though cannot rule out fast-moving shortwaves zipping thru zonal flow late in the week into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: VLIFR/LIFR is the predominant condition this morning in low clouds, fog, and drizzle. Very little improvement in conditions through the day today and into tonight. LLWS at northern terminals this morning.

Rain, heavy at times, develops tonight, with VLIFR/LIFR at most places. Winds pick up Downeast including BHB/BGR, along with LLWS Downeast as well.

For Monday, strong south winds likely at BHB/BGR. Generally IFR or worse areawide in rain, with rain turning to snow PQI north.
Winds shifting to the west areawide late in the day and becoming gusty areawide, not just Downeast.

SHORT TERM: Monday night...MVFR over northern Aroostook terminals in low cigs and light snow showers early. VFR Downeast terminals. W 10-20kts gusting to 30kts early then diminishing.

Tuesday...VFR. WSW 5-15kts and gusty.

Tuesday night...VFR. MVFR possible at FVE, CAR and PQI. S 5-10kts with gusts to 20kts late.

Wednesday...VFR Downeast terminals. MVFR at Aroostook terminals in snow showers. W 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts.

Wednesday night-Thursday...Mainly VFR. W 10-15kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: South winds slowly increase through the period such that gusts to 30 kt will be frequent by Sunday evening. Since this is a slow ramp up to the Storm Warning, no separate advisories will be issued. Seas will build to around 20 ft Monday.

SHORT TERM: Gale force winds likely over the waters Monday night diminishing on Tuesday morning. Winds will gust aoa 25kts beginning late Tuesday night, remaining at SCA levels through the end of the period. Seas will remain elevated above small craft levels through Wednesday night before dropping below 5ft.

HYDROLOGY
Melting snowpack and heavy rainfall to pose a hydrologic threat across a large portion of Eastern and Northern Maine. Ice is present on some of the rivers but will not be that big of a concern. There is frazil and pancake ice that has frozen in place on the St. John and Aroostook River basins along with other smaller creeks and streams across much of the CWA. Latest NOHRSC analysis shows generally 2-5 inches across the southern 1/2 of the CWA and 4-10 inches across the northern 1/2 of the CWA with highest totals in the North Woods and higher terrain of Baxter. In this snow we generally see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of SWE that is likely to melt with this upcoming event.

The combination of heaviest rainfall, SWE melting and the partially frozen grounds corresponds to a flood threat on small creeks and streams. The Piscataquis River which is prone to rapid rises and has a complex terrain in the basin is likely to experience minor flooding. The Northeast River Forecast Center is predicting the Piscataquis at Dover-Foxcroft to rise to Minor Flood Stage on Monday. In addition, large rivers will experience rises Monday into Tuesday AM before cresting which could send some locations into action stage. Not expecting flooding at this time, however highly isolated issues may occur as rivers approach bankfull.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The high tide near 9AM Monday morning represents the biggest risk for any coastal flooding and wave runup issues. There are two mitigating factors. First, it is not a particularly high astronomical tide. Second, peak surge is about 4 to 5 hours after the high tide based on current projections. In this scenario, wave runup becomes the primary concern. Seas approaching 10-15 ft could deposit rocks on roads exposed to the open ocean. That includes Mount Desert Island locations such as Seawall Road and coastal roads on the Schoodic Peninsula. Do not anticipate needing any coastal flood warnings, as this looks like either a coastal flood statement or advisory scenario.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MEZ001>006- 010.
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for MEZ001-003.
Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for MEZ002-004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MEZ006-011-015.
High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MEZ016-017- 029-030-032.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.

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Newcastle
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Sun -- 04:03 AM AST     0.83 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:22 AM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:56 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:14 AM AST     0.18 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 02:42 PM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:49 PM AST     1.32 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM AST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:16 PM AST     0.05 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Newcastle, Miramichi River, New Brunswick, Tide feet

Newcastle
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Sun -- 04:15 AM AST     1.23 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:22 AM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:56 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:58 AM AST     0.88 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 02:42 PM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:32 PM AST     1.56 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM AST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:05 PM AST     0.40 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Newcastle, Miramichi River, New Brunswick (2), Tide feet

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