Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 7:49AM||Sunset 5:10PM||Thursday January 23, 2020 6:52 AM EST (11:52 UTC)||Moonrise 7:07AM||Moonset 3:47PM||Illumination 3%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Morris, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBTV 231129 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 629 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020
SYNOPSIS. Above normal temperature are expected across the North Country today and Friday as high pressure remains anchored across the Northeast US. A system is poised to impact the region late Saturday into Sunday, however uncertainty remains in exact precipitation type with chances for a mix of wintry precipitation and snowfall.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 627 AM EST Thursday . Only minor tweaks made at this hour to adjust temperatures. Otherwise, going forecast remains in good shape. Enjoy the pleasant day!
Previous Discussion . No real changes made to the forecast with surface high pressure cresting over the region today. Despite some chillier readings in the deeper hollows this morning, temperatures should warm nicely into the mid to upper 30s by this afternoon. Expect mainly sunny skies with passing cirrus overhead. As upper level ridging begins to dampen Thursday afternoon, coverage of high clouds will increase which will have potential implications once again on overnight low temperatures. Have trended above MOS guidance slightly despite surface high pressure and calm winds across the area due to cloud cover. Upstream obs show thicker cloud cover across Indiana/Ohio area with lots of temperatures remaining in the mid 20s to low 30s. Per model guidance this area of clouds is what will advect over our region tonight. At this time, expect low temperatures generally in the upper teens to low 20s with colder readings across eastern Vermont where ridging will hold stronger longer (and therefore limit cloud cover). Just to note, however, these temperatures could easily be ~5 degrees warmer (which is suggested by some deterministic guidance) if cloud cover remains thick enough to limit radiational processes.
For Friday, another warm January day is on the docket with temperatures warming another degree or two from Thursday's highs. Heights will build once again Thursday night into Friday as upper level pattern amplifies ahead of the system for the weekend. 925mb temperatures warm to around 1-2C before cold air damming sets up across eastern Vermont by Friday night. Continued passing high cirrus clouds are expected with increasing coverage by Friday evening from west to east.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 435 AM EST Thursday . Still anticipate a wintry event to occur over the weekend. Model guidance continues to be in disagreement with the details, however. Low pressure across the Great Lakes will give way to a secondary low which will develop over the Mid Atlantic states, then lift north or northeast. The question will be exactly where and when this secondary low tracks and how quickly its cold air moves into our area. This has big implications on precip type and amounts. Warm advection precip will move in during the day Saturday, becoming heaviest during the evening hours as a band of strong frontogenetical forcing lifts across the region. The NAM takes the secondary low to our south, while the GFS and CMC actually lift northward through NY, keeping it to our west. The NAM solution would mean a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain as east- southeast flow would keep low-level cold air locked up on the eastern side of the Greens and portions of the Adirondacks. However, it should be noted that the warm nose aloft could well be eroded away as evaporational cooling brings the temp aloft down to the wet- bulb temperature which would mean more of a rain/snow type of profile. Meanwhile, the the CMC and GFS solutions would mean snow going to rain with perhaps just a bit of freezing rain or sleet mixed in at the transition. Also noted that the SREF p-type plumes are indicating the most likely p-type east of the Greens will be rain, followed closely by freezing rain at 30-35%. Given all this . have stayed with mainly a rain/snow precip type based on surface temps, but added a slight chance of freezing rain for areas below 32F. This and the warmer GFS and CMC solutions ended up cutting back on snow amounts; now anticipate 2 to 4 inches across much of northern NY where the colder air is more likely to hang in. Much of VT would get 1 to 3 inches of snow, with higher amounts in the higher terrain in the south central Greens. The aforementioned east-southeast flow would result in shadowing in the Northeast Kingdom, so for now expect an inch or less there. Regardless of where the low tracks, colder air will spread from west to east on Sunday once the secondary moves to our east. Flow turns to the north-northwest, which will allow snow showers to become focused along the western slopes of the higher terrain. Temperatures through this entire period will likely be within 5 degrees of freezing, making the precip type and amount forecast even more challenging. Lots of details still need to be ironed out, so stay tuned for later forecasts.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 435 AM EST Thursday . Low pressure pulls away to the east Sunday night and Monday, but mountain snow showers will linger into Monday evening as we will be under northwest flow. Weak ridging builds in thereafter, but low chances for snow showers will continue through the middle of the week as an upper shortwave trough moves through. Stronger high pressure will spread across the region for Thursday, finally drying things out. Temperatures will remain near or just above seasonal normal through the week.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Through 12Z Friday . VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with only passing high clouds. Winds will generally be under 10 knots during the day Thursday with winds slackening areawide as high pressure crests overhead. Expect mostly calm winds Thursday night with light SE drainage wind at KRUT.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance FZRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance RA, Slight chance FZRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN, Definite RA, Slight chance FZRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SN, Likely RA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.
SYNOPSIS . LaRocca NEAR TERM . LaRocca SHORT TERM . Hastings LONG TERM . Hastings AVIATION . LaRocca
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (6,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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