Wednesday, July8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Morris, NY

Version 3.4
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 9:12PM Wednesday July 8, 2020 4:20 AM EDT (08:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:41PMMoonset 7:55AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Morris, NY
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location: 46.91, -78.37     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 407 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. A mid-level trough will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the North Country today, especially from the Adirondacks eastward across Vermont. A few strong to severe storms are possible, with damaging winds, brief heavy rainfall, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning the primary threats. Hazy, hot and humid conditions move in for Thursday and Friday. Heat index values are expected in the mid to upper 90s across the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys for Thursday and Friday. Any thunderstorm development Thursday and Friday is expected to be isolated.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 349 AM EDT Wednesday . Quiet start early this morning with warm/muggy conditions across the North Country. GOES-16 night fog product continues to indicate lower stratus across central/eastern VT. Anticipate these low clouds generally mixing out with increased PBL mixing after 14Z or so. Upstream, continue to monitor progress of shortwave trough and upper trop PV max across the Ottawa Valley. Associated forcing is supporting ongoing thunderstorms north of the International Border. Appears that this activity will largely bypass our region this morning, but with peak daytime heating, additional development is expected. Based on ewd translation of the shortwave and associated mid-level height falls, best convective coverage should occur from the Champlain Valley ewd. Very high resolution NWP such as the BTV-4kmWRF, HRRR, and NAM- Nest all focus most widespread convective coverage across s-central/ern VT, with lowest chances across the St. Lawrence Valley. Max PoPs range from 70% Rutland/Windsor counties, to 50-60% in the BTV area, to 30-40% in the St. Lawrence Valley.

Environment is reasonably supportive of severe storms with SBCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg and sfc-6km shear values of 30-35kt. Should see multicellular clusters with possible bowing segments producing damaging winds, especially s-central/ern VT this afternoon. Brief heavy rain is also expected with PW values of 1.5" to 1.6". Have included mention of severe threat in the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook, and region remains in marginal risk per SPC SWODY1. South winds will shift swly with passage of mid- level trough this afternoon, should see enough sunshine (partly sunny skies) to yield late afternoon highs in the mid- upper 80s, and possibly hitting 90F around KMSS. Dewpoints will hold in the mid-upper 60s with moist S-SW low- level trajectories.

Clearing skies tonight should yield mist and some locally dense fog as dewpoints remain mid-upper 60s. Areas seeing rain from thunderstorms today should be most susceptible to dense fog formation overnight. Overnight lows mainly 65-71F.

Thursday features building 700-500mb shortwave ridging and S-SW low-level trajectories that should contribute to hazy conditions as 2-m dewpoints remain in the mid-upper 60s. With 850mb temperatures increasing to near +18C, should see near-record temperatures in the low-mid 90s (see climate section for record values). With the increased humidity, should see heat index values in the mid-upper 90s in the Champlain/St. Lawrence Valleys. Have posted a Heat Advisory accordingly for the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys (which continues thru the day Friday). Subsidence aloft should generally preclude convective storms on Thursday, but orographic forcing may result in a storm or two across the higher terrain areas of the Adirondacks/Green Mtns, which should generally remain anchored to the terrain given greater CIN in valley locations.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 349 AM EDT Wednesday . Continued hot and humid conditions are expected Friday ahead of the approaching tropical system moving up the eastern seaboard. Advection of high theta-e air northward will act to amplify upper level ridge over northern New England. Based on the strengthening ridge, have erred closer to ECMWF/NAM solution for timing on northward advancement, holding back on increasing cloud cover and precipitation until closer to 00z Saturday. Subsidence combined with the location of the thermal ridge axis directly overhead Friday will boost high temperatures across the St Lawrence and Champlain Valley into the mid to upper 90s. Elsewhere, highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Clouds and chances for precipitation will increase across southern Windsor county Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 349 AM EDT Wednesday . Guidance has come more into agreement that this system will pass over ME/NH, leaving eastern VT on the fringes of chances for precipitation Saturday morning. Better chances for widespread precipitation across the area, including our western NY zones will come late Saturday afternoon/evening as a shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes region interacts with the tropical system. Does not look like these two areas of vorticity will merge, but the proximity of the western system combined with easterly trajectories of Atlantic moisture should provide enough of a mechanism for some beneficial rainfall across the area. Available CAPE on soundings is pretty meager with most available energy below 0C isotherm, therefore not expecting any severe threat with these storms. The most vigorous updrafts may have some embedded thunder, but the main threat will be heavy rainfall as PWATs impressively near 2.0". While not as hot as Thursday/Friday, above normal temperatures will continue Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Cloudiness with a few scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday. A relief from the heat and humidity finally arrives Monday into Tuesday as W/NW flow becomes established aloft but is short lived as global models indicate the return to hot conditions for mid to late next week.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Through 12Z Thursday . Areas of MVFR stratus and 3-5SM BR are possible through 13Z this morning at MPV/RUT/SLK associated with moist low-level air mass. These low clouds should clear later this morning. Main concern thereafter will be scattered thunderstorm development, mainly 17-22Z. A few severe storms are possible, and may impact the TAF locations. Damaging winds are the primary threat. Winds at BTV generally south 10-12kt with gusts to 20kts this morning. Winds will shift swly later this afternoon, before returning light south overnight.

Outlook .

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

CLIMATE. Max Temp Records the next several days. Near record highs are possible Thursday (7/9) and Friday (7/10).

Date KBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK 07-08 98|1921 95|1988 90|2010 95|1988 96|1981 95|1921 07-09 97|1988 94|1988 86|2010 96|1988 94|1981 94|1928 07-10 96|1911 92|1955 88|2005 96|1988 94|1955 96|1936

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 7 PM EDT Friday for VTZ001- 002-005-009. NY . Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 7 PM EDT Friday for NYZ026>028-035-087.

SYNOPSIS . Banacos NEAR TERM . Banacos SHORT TERM . LaRocca LONG TERM . LaRocca AVIATION . Banacos CLIMATE . Banacos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.