Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neihart, MT
December 1, 2023 11:30 PM MST (06:30 UTC)
Sunrise 7:50AM Sunset 4:38PM Moonrise 8:27PM Moonset 11:59AM
Area Discussion for - Great Falls, MT
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FXUS65 KTFX 020517 AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1017 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023
Aviation Section Updated
SYNOPSIS
There is a series of upper-level disturbances moving through the area Today through early next week. These disturbances will bring gusty winds to most of the area, especially Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, and snow primarily in the mountains. The temperatures will be on a warming trend through the weekend and stay unseasonably warm through the middle of next week.
Update
On-going forecast is performing well this evening and only minor updates were made.
AVIATION
1017 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023 (02/06Z TAF Period)
The main concern at terminals this TAF period will be for increasing winds and gusts through the day Saturday. Southerly to westerly winds will increase in magnitude Saturday, with strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains, where mountain wave turbulence is forecast. Otherwise the concern will be for scattered light snow at times early tonight and then again Saturday afternoon and evening across Southwest and portions of Central Montana. Mountains will be obscured at times across Southwest and portions of Central Montana. -AM
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 410 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023/
Rest of today through Sunday morning...There is an upper- level shortwave in the Northwest corner of Montana which will bring light mountain snow to the Rocky Mountain Front this afternoon through Saturday morning. The rest of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana will remain dry the rest of today. On Saturday a series of upper-level shortwave troughs moves through the area bringing with them gusty winds and mountain snow.
Currently there is northwest flow causing light snow showers over the Little Belt Mountains. This snowfall should remain light and intermittent the rest of today through Saturday evening with probabilistic guidance only showing a 40% chance of snowfall exceeding 2 inches.
A front associated with an upper-level shortwave trough will begin moving through North-central, Central, and Southwestern MT Saturday afternoon. Through Saturday at 5 PM there is a 60% chance of locations along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front, including Marias Pass, receiving 4 inches or more of snow. This in combination with the gusty winds will cause there to be slick roads and reduced visibility at times at Marias Pass. As a result a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the East Glacier Park Region. The heaviest snow is most likely to occur Saturday late morning through the late afternoon/early evening. Late morning through the afternoon/early evening the front will bring snow to extreme Southwestern Montana, including Chief Joseph Pass.
Saturday late morning through late afternoon/early evening there is a 90% chance of extreme Southwestern Montana, including Chief Joseph Pass, receiving 2 or more inches or snow. Since this snowfall amount is low and for a short duration a Winter Weather Advisory was not issued for that area. This will need to continue to be monitored and tomorrow a Special Weather Statement may be needed.
The shortwave troughs and front will bring strong 700mb winds above the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains by Saturday evening. This will result in strong gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front down to MacDonald Pass. Additionally the plains adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front will have strong gusty winds.
The probability of locations along the Rocky Mountain Front down to MacDonald Pass exceeding 55 mph gusts (High Wind Warning Criteria) is 80%. Along the plains adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front the probability of exceeding 55 mph gusts is 50%. The High Wind Watch was upgraded to a High Wind Warning for very early morning Saturday (12 AM) through Saturday evening for the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains and for Saturday morning through early Saturday night (11 PM) for the MacDonald Pass region. Additionally, there are isolated locations in the plains of Central and Southwestern Montana that have a 50% chance of wind gusts exceeding 55 mph. This will need to continued to be monitored especially for Meagher and Judith Basin counties.
On Saturday there is about a 75% chance for mountain snow across the other locations of North-central, Central, and Southwestern MT. On Saturday there is a chance (50%) for lower-elevation locations of Southwestern Montana to receive a trace of snow. On Saturday there is a slight chance (30%) for lower-elevation locations of North- central and Central Montana to receive a trace of snow. Across most of the lower-elevation locations of North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana the warming trend for high temperatures will continue on Saturday. The front continues to move through the area Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
Saturday evening through Sunday morning the disturbance from the front continues to bring mountain snow and gusty winds primarily to the Rocky Mountain Front. From Saturday evening through Sunday morning locations along the northern Rocky Mountain Front, including Marias Pass, have a 60% chance of snowfall exceeding an inch. This will need to continue to be monitored for a possible extension of the Winter Weather Advisory. -IG
Sunday through next Friday...The progressive west to northwesterly flow aloft will continue to send shortwaves into the Northern Rockies on Sunday into early next week, maintaining mountain snow and gusty winds for most locations. The most significant systems and their attendant cold fronts come through Saturday through early Sunday and Sunday evening into Monday. The best potential for accumulating snow will remain along the Continental Divide north of Lincoln to the Canadian border, and the southwestern mountains hugging the MT/ID/WY stateline where probabilistic data favors an additional 2 to 6 inches of snow between the two systems, with even higher amounts over the higher peaks. Lower elevations will mostly remain on the drier side, but isolated to scattered rain/snow showers in combination with gusty winds can be expected at times, mostly during the frontal passages.
Guidance from the NAEFS Forecast Analysis, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, and NBM probabilistic guidance remain in agreement with the Sunday afternoon through Tuesday being the period with the strongest and most widespread winds. H700 flow will be at or above 50 kts and some deterministic models bring widespread H700 wind speeds of 60 to 90 kts Sunday evening through early Monday.
The one limiting factor will be the strongest swath of winds aloft looking to occur mostly during the nighttime and morning hours, which may limit gusts from transferring to the ground in a widespread fashion, particularly for plains locations away from terrain and other wind protected areas. Regardless, the aforementioned mountain wave activity along with mountain top stable layers increase the likelihood of at least some periods where very strong gusts reach the surface.
Probabilities for wind gusts 55 mph or greater are currently running in the 50 to 90% range along the eastern slopes of the Continental Divide from MacDonald Pass to the Canadian border, the plains adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front, and Central/North- central areas along the US Highway 200 corridor. A High Wind Watch was issued for these areas where confidence for more widespread impactful winds look to occur. Probabilities for 55 mph gusts have also increased for other areas including the southwest wind prone valleys and other central/north-central areas, but remain below 50% at this time.
The breezy to windy conditions persist next week, but mountain snow activity slows down a bit after Monday in response to upper level ridging moving into the region. Temperatures warm well above average by mid-week before troughing cools things down and increases mountain snow again late in the week. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 28 43 27 47 / 10 10 10 20 CTB 25 41 25 44 / 0 20 10 20 HLN 24 43 26 46 / 20 40 20 40 BZN 18 39 20 43 / 30 30 40 30 WYS 10 24 12 29 / 90 90 90 80 DLN 20 36 20 41 / 20 40 30 30 HVR 22 45 23 44 / 0 10 20 10 LWT 22 42 23 43 / 10 10 20 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST Saturday for East Glacier Park Region.
High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 5 PM MST Saturday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gates of the Mountains-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap- Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-Western and Central Chouteau County.
High Wind Warning from 3 PM Saturday to midnight MST Saturday night for Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1017 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023
Aviation Section Updated
SYNOPSIS
There is a series of upper-level disturbances moving through the area Today through early next week. These disturbances will bring gusty winds to most of the area, especially Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, and snow primarily in the mountains. The temperatures will be on a warming trend through the weekend and stay unseasonably warm through the middle of next week.
Update
On-going forecast is performing well this evening and only minor updates were made.
AVIATION
1017 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023 (02/06Z TAF Period)
The main concern at terminals this TAF period will be for increasing winds and gusts through the day Saturday. Southerly to westerly winds will increase in magnitude Saturday, with strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains, where mountain wave turbulence is forecast. Otherwise the concern will be for scattered light snow at times early tonight and then again Saturday afternoon and evening across Southwest and portions of Central Montana. Mountains will be obscured at times across Southwest and portions of Central Montana. -AM
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 410 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023/
Rest of today through Sunday morning...There is an upper- level shortwave in the Northwest corner of Montana which will bring light mountain snow to the Rocky Mountain Front this afternoon through Saturday morning. The rest of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana will remain dry the rest of today. On Saturday a series of upper-level shortwave troughs moves through the area bringing with them gusty winds and mountain snow.
Currently there is northwest flow causing light snow showers over the Little Belt Mountains. This snowfall should remain light and intermittent the rest of today through Saturday evening with probabilistic guidance only showing a 40% chance of snowfall exceeding 2 inches.
A front associated with an upper-level shortwave trough will begin moving through North-central, Central, and Southwestern MT Saturday afternoon. Through Saturday at 5 PM there is a 60% chance of locations along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front, including Marias Pass, receiving 4 inches or more of snow. This in combination with the gusty winds will cause there to be slick roads and reduced visibility at times at Marias Pass. As a result a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the East Glacier Park Region. The heaviest snow is most likely to occur Saturday late morning through the late afternoon/early evening. Late morning through the afternoon/early evening the front will bring snow to extreme Southwestern Montana, including Chief Joseph Pass.
Saturday late morning through late afternoon/early evening there is a 90% chance of extreme Southwestern Montana, including Chief Joseph Pass, receiving 2 or more inches or snow. Since this snowfall amount is low and for a short duration a Winter Weather Advisory was not issued for that area. This will need to continue to be monitored and tomorrow a Special Weather Statement may be needed.
The shortwave troughs and front will bring strong 700mb winds above the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains by Saturday evening. This will result in strong gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front down to MacDonald Pass. Additionally the plains adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front will have strong gusty winds.
The probability of locations along the Rocky Mountain Front down to MacDonald Pass exceeding 55 mph gusts (High Wind Warning Criteria) is 80%. Along the plains adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front the probability of exceeding 55 mph gusts is 50%. The High Wind Watch was upgraded to a High Wind Warning for very early morning Saturday (12 AM) through Saturday evening for the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains and for Saturday morning through early Saturday night (11 PM) for the MacDonald Pass region. Additionally, there are isolated locations in the plains of Central and Southwestern Montana that have a 50% chance of wind gusts exceeding 55 mph. This will need to continued to be monitored especially for Meagher and Judith Basin counties.
On Saturday there is about a 75% chance for mountain snow across the other locations of North-central, Central, and Southwestern MT. On Saturday there is a chance (50%) for lower-elevation locations of Southwestern Montana to receive a trace of snow. On Saturday there is a slight chance (30%) for lower-elevation locations of North- central and Central Montana to receive a trace of snow. Across most of the lower-elevation locations of North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana the warming trend for high temperatures will continue on Saturday. The front continues to move through the area Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
Saturday evening through Sunday morning the disturbance from the front continues to bring mountain snow and gusty winds primarily to the Rocky Mountain Front. From Saturday evening through Sunday morning locations along the northern Rocky Mountain Front, including Marias Pass, have a 60% chance of snowfall exceeding an inch. This will need to continue to be monitored for a possible extension of the Winter Weather Advisory. -IG
Sunday through next Friday...The progressive west to northwesterly flow aloft will continue to send shortwaves into the Northern Rockies on Sunday into early next week, maintaining mountain snow and gusty winds for most locations. The most significant systems and their attendant cold fronts come through Saturday through early Sunday and Sunday evening into Monday. The best potential for accumulating snow will remain along the Continental Divide north of Lincoln to the Canadian border, and the southwestern mountains hugging the MT/ID/WY stateline where probabilistic data favors an additional 2 to 6 inches of snow between the two systems, with even higher amounts over the higher peaks. Lower elevations will mostly remain on the drier side, but isolated to scattered rain/snow showers in combination with gusty winds can be expected at times, mostly during the frontal passages.
Guidance from the NAEFS Forecast Analysis, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, and NBM probabilistic guidance remain in agreement with the Sunday afternoon through Tuesday being the period with the strongest and most widespread winds. H700 flow will be at or above 50 kts and some deterministic models bring widespread H700 wind speeds of 60 to 90 kts Sunday evening through early Monday.
The one limiting factor will be the strongest swath of winds aloft looking to occur mostly during the nighttime and morning hours, which may limit gusts from transferring to the ground in a widespread fashion, particularly for plains locations away from terrain and other wind protected areas. Regardless, the aforementioned mountain wave activity along with mountain top stable layers increase the likelihood of at least some periods where very strong gusts reach the surface.
Probabilities for wind gusts 55 mph or greater are currently running in the 50 to 90% range along the eastern slopes of the Continental Divide from MacDonald Pass to the Canadian border, the plains adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front, and Central/North- central areas along the US Highway 200 corridor. A High Wind Watch was issued for these areas where confidence for more widespread impactful winds look to occur. Probabilities for 55 mph gusts have also increased for other areas including the southwest wind prone valleys and other central/north-central areas, but remain below 50% at this time.
The breezy to windy conditions persist next week, but mountain snow activity slows down a bit after Monday in response to upper level ridging moving into the region. Temperatures warm well above average by mid-week before troughing cools things down and increases mountain snow again late in the week. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 28 43 27 47 / 10 10 10 20 CTB 25 41 25 44 / 0 20 10 20 HLN 24 43 26 46 / 20 40 20 40 BZN 18 39 20 43 / 30 30 40 30 WYS 10 24 12 29 / 90 90 90 80 DLN 20 36 20 41 / 20 40 30 30 HVR 22 45 23 44 / 0 10 20 10 LWT 22 42 23 43 / 10 10 20 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST Saturday for East Glacier Park Region.
High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 5 PM MST Saturday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gates of the Mountains-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap- Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-Western and Central Chouteau County.
High Wind Warning from 3 PM Saturday to midnight MST Saturday night for Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.
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Airport Reports
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Great Falls, MT,
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