Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neihart, MT
May 16, 2024 1:16 AM MDT (07:16 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:43 AM Sunset 8:59 PM Moonrise 12:54 PM Moonset 2:13 AM |
Area Discussion for - Great Falls, MT
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FXUS65 KTFX 160541 AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1135 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Winds increase and become gusty on Thursday and Friday, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front and the nearby high plains. Temperatures remain above average on Thursday before trending closer to average for the weekend with showery condtions moving in. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week, with periods of rain and mountain snowfall expected.
DISCUSSION
The evening update has been published. Mostly dry conditions are expected tonight, but a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder may move through the north and eastern portions of North- central MT overnight tonight into Thursday. Otherwise westerly winds will be on the increase along the Rocky Mountain Front later tonight into Thursday morning before expanding eastward later in the day. Pops, winds, and hourly temperatures were freshened with newer data, but no significant changes were required this evening.
- RCG
AVIATION
16/06Z TAF Period
Expect VFR conditions across North Central and Southwestern Montana over the next 24 hours, even as winds increase and upper level cloud cover increases. Winds will be strongest across the plains, particularly at KCTB and KGTF during the afternoon hours, and we will have a few light rain or virga showers around, particularly around KLWT and KHVR during the afternoon. Ludwig
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 305 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024/
Short Term (Today and Tomorrow)... Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon along the hi-line as a shortwave moves over the region today and tomorrow. Thursday will be a similar setup to today with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, particularly across north-central and central Montana. Showers are expected to be more hit-or-miss with most locations generally staying dry, especially into southwestern Montana.
Otherwise, the main driver of unsettled weather heading forward will be a large trough that is expected to start moving along southern Canada/northern US through the late week into the weekend. Ahead of the trough, gusty winds will start picking up early Friday morning and continue through the rest of the day.
Gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front and higher elevations of southwestern Montana are expected to reach at least 50 mph.
When evaluating the risk for high winds, the NBM has a very narrow signal in the Rocky Mountains with about a 30-50% chance of gusts greater than 60 mph. Looking at probabilities across different models, a similar picture is painted where conditions will definitely be windy but are not expected to reach high wind criteria at this point in time. Thus the decision to hold off on headlines was made with this update.
Accompanying the gusty winds will be a widespread chance for rain across most of Montana with some mountain snow possible in the Rockies. The heaviest precipitation is expected in north-central and central Montana where some locations could see up to a tenth of an inch with locally higher amounts possible.
Extended (Saturday through next week)... Looking towards the weekend, the trough will move into the northern US/southern Canada and bring some unsettled weather across the region. Storm total amounts are generally expected to be lighter and more hit-and-miss with higher amounts expected with afternoon showers.
The next impactful system is expected early next week as one trough departs the region and another starts moving onshore behind it. Uncertainty with this system remains high as ensemble guidance diverges. But looking through next week the general pattern of unsettled weather is expected to continue across the region.
-thor
HYDROLOGY
The latest reports from the Monarch area indicate continued receding waters along Belt Creek, so the small stream Flood Advisory from Neihart to Sluice Boxes State Park will be allowed to expire at 9 pm MDT. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 50 74 51 62 / 10 10 20 30 CTB 50 70 44 55 / 10 10 20 60 HLN 52 79 52 64 / 0 10 10 30 BZN 42 76 45 65 / 0 10 10 50 WYS 34 66 38 61 / 0 20 10 40 DLN 43 75 45 64 / 0 0 0 20 HVR 49 76 49 64 / 20 30 20 50 LWT 46 71 46 59 / 20 30 20 50
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1135 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Winds increase and become gusty on Thursday and Friday, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front and the nearby high plains. Temperatures remain above average on Thursday before trending closer to average for the weekend with showery condtions moving in. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week, with periods of rain and mountain snowfall expected.
DISCUSSION
The evening update has been published. Mostly dry conditions are expected tonight, but a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder may move through the north and eastern portions of North- central MT overnight tonight into Thursday. Otherwise westerly winds will be on the increase along the Rocky Mountain Front later tonight into Thursday morning before expanding eastward later in the day. Pops, winds, and hourly temperatures were freshened with newer data, but no significant changes were required this evening.
- RCG
AVIATION
16/06Z TAF Period
Expect VFR conditions across North Central and Southwestern Montana over the next 24 hours, even as winds increase and upper level cloud cover increases. Winds will be strongest across the plains, particularly at KCTB and KGTF during the afternoon hours, and we will have a few light rain or virga showers around, particularly around KLWT and KHVR during the afternoon. Ludwig
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 305 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024/
Short Term (Today and Tomorrow)... Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon along the hi-line as a shortwave moves over the region today and tomorrow. Thursday will be a similar setup to today with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, particularly across north-central and central Montana. Showers are expected to be more hit-or-miss with most locations generally staying dry, especially into southwestern Montana.
Otherwise, the main driver of unsettled weather heading forward will be a large trough that is expected to start moving along southern Canada/northern US through the late week into the weekend. Ahead of the trough, gusty winds will start picking up early Friday morning and continue through the rest of the day.
Gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front and higher elevations of southwestern Montana are expected to reach at least 50 mph.
When evaluating the risk for high winds, the NBM has a very narrow signal in the Rocky Mountains with about a 30-50% chance of gusts greater than 60 mph. Looking at probabilities across different models, a similar picture is painted where conditions will definitely be windy but are not expected to reach high wind criteria at this point in time. Thus the decision to hold off on headlines was made with this update.
Accompanying the gusty winds will be a widespread chance for rain across most of Montana with some mountain snow possible in the Rockies. The heaviest precipitation is expected in north-central and central Montana where some locations could see up to a tenth of an inch with locally higher amounts possible.
Extended (Saturday through next week)... Looking towards the weekend, the trough will move into the northern US/southern Canada and bring some unsettled weather across the region. Storm total amounts are generally expected to be lighter and more hit-and-miss with higher amounts expected with afternoon showers.
The next impactful system is expected early next week as one trough departs the region and another starts moving onshore behind it. Uncertainty with this system remains high as ensemble guidance diverges. But looking through next week the general pattern of unsettled weather is expected to continue across the region.
-thor
HYDROLOGY
The latest reports from the Monarch area indicate continued receding waters along Belt Creek, so the small stream Flood Advisory from Neihart to Sluice Boxes State Park will be allowed to expire at 9 pm MDT. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 50 74 51 62 / 10 10 20 30 CTB 50 70 44 55 / 10 10 20 60 HLN 52 79 52 64 / 0 10 10 30 BZN 42 76 45 65 / 0 10 10 50 WYS 34 66 38 61 / 0 20 10 40 DLN 43 75 45 64 / 0 0 0 20 HVR 49 76 49 64 / 20 30 20 50 LWT 46 71 46 59 / 20 30 20 50
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Great Falls, MT,
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