Ogdensburg, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ogdensburg, NY

June 19, 2024 2:38 AM EDT (06:38 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:08 AM   Sunset 9:16 PM
Moonrise 6:19 PM   Moonset 2:02 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ogdensburg, NY
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 190609 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 209 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A period of dangerous heat and humidity will continue across the region into Thursday. Highs will reach well into the 90s each day, and overnight temperatures will remain muggy and uncomfortable.
Please be sure to take appropriate precautions to avoid heat stress through the remainder of this week. Although an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out Tuesday or Wednesday, greater chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive late Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...It's still 82 degrees at 130AM with only marginally cooling even possible at this point. Minimum T at BTV will likely only dip into the upper 70s, definitely an uncomfortable evening and a hot start to the morning ahead.
We're on track for reaching our warmest temperatures today with generally miserable conditions with humidity remaining high as well. It'll be a hazy day. Otherwise, we continue to track mud level energy left over from yesterday"s"s convection.
Isolated to scattered showers and a rumble of thunder will be possible in the Adirondacks. If cells do get going, a strong downburst will be possible given ample instability aloft.

Previous Discussion...A warm and muggy evening continues with temps falling back into the 70s, except 82F here at BTV as of 10 PM, while dwpts are holding in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A little shallow fog/haze has developed at SLK already so have placed some patchy fog in fcst acrs the dacks. Given increasing wind fields just off the deck and advancing debris clouds into northern NY should limit areal coverage of fog. Also, did bump pops upward toward 12z acrs northern NY as s/w energy now over western NY is progged to slowly track ne toward our fa. Still some uncertainty on areal coverage/intensity of potential convection, but soundings indicate plenty of instability to support localized thunderstorms. Have schc to chc pops expanding from sw to ne acrs northern NY thru 12z. A few stronger storms are possible toward morning, given the large and tall CAPE profiles, which radar wl need to be watched closely, if convection can hold together. Rest of fcst in good shape.

Previous discussion below: Dangerous heat is expected to continue across the region through Thursday with a strong upper level ridge continue to amplify as it shifts towards the region. Despite the showers and cloud cover early in the day, temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the upper 80s and 90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. This period of prolonged heat will continue the next couple of days, with a Heat Advisory in effect until 8PM Thursday. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms may pop up throughout the afternoon into the evening due with plenty of available CAPE given the moist airmass and warm temperatures, although lack of forcing and shear will limit any development. Overnight lows will continue to be quite warm amd humid, with temperatures struggling to drop below 70 in several locations, which will add to the cumulative impacts of the heat.
Some patchy fog may develop overnight, especially across northern New York where rain had fallen this morning.

Tomorrow looks to be a few degrees hotter than today, with highs climbing into the 90s and heat indices once again near or exceeding 100F. Experimental NWS HeatRisk highlights the threat well, showing major to extreme risk of heat related impacts for the middle of this week. Be sure to practice heat safety by staying hydrated, avoiding strenuous outdoor activity and checking up on your family, friends, neighbors, and those most vulnerable to heat. Several CAMs are showing the development of some isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers across the forecast area, particularly along the periphery of the upper level ridge and across the Adirondacks.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 404 PM EDT Tuesday...Thursday will be the final day of this early summer heat have with temperatures forecast to range from the upper 80s along the Canadian border to low/mid 90s across south/central VT. Relief is in sight though as a weak cold front remains progged to drop southward through the region during the mid- day to evening hours. Timing of the front will play a large role in the forecast temps, as well as the convective potential, which right now coincides with peak heating. Forecast soundings indicate 1500-2500J/kg of SBCAPE likely, but 0-6km shear isn't very impressive. Thoughts are pulse storms will be likely, with heavy rain and downbursts the greatest threat with DCAPES > 1000 J/kg and PWATs still up around 2". As the front shifts south of the region Thursday evening, and with the loss of surface heating, showers and storms will dissipate but mild and muggy conditions will continue Thursday night with lows only in the mid/upper 60s for most areas.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 404 PM EDT Tuesday...Brief high pressure looks to build across southern Ontario and Quebec on Friday, filtering in across northern zones, but the aforementioned cold front will stall across southern New England and may provide the focus for additional showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across Rutland/Windsor counties in the afternoon. Thereafter for the weekend, several shortwave troughs will renew chances for showers and isolated storms, with moderate to heavy rain a possibility as PWATs surge again to near 2".
Temperatures won't be quite as warm as they currently are, but will remain above normal in the 80s with dewpoints likely in the 60s so it will continue to feel quite humid.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR except at SLK where fog has formed with VLIFR conditions ongoing. Low cig/vis will continue until around sunrise when an upper level disturbance moves through bringing increased chances of showers/thunderstorms through 16Z. Could see some showers and thunderstorm elsewhere 14-20Z as the mid level energy moves through the North Country.
Otherwise, hot and hazy conditions likely with potential for some slant-wise visibility reductions.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

CLIMATE
Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 19: KBTV: 100/1995 Forecast 95 KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 93 KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 92 KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 92 KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 89

June 20: KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 93 KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 92 KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 90 KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 89 KSLK: 92/1995 Forecast 87

Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 18: KBTV: 73/1994 Forecast 74

June 19: KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 74

June 20: KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 74 KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 65

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ026>031-034-035- 087.




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