Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ogdensburg, NY
December 1, 2023 8:45 PM EST (01:45 UTC)
Sunrise 7:38AM Sunset 4:21PM Moonrise 8:10PM Moonset 11:45AM
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 012344 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 644 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
SYNOPSIS
Widespread rain will fall through the evening before becoming scattered overnight as patchy fog and drizzle develop. As a front shifts to our south, temperatures will be steady or cool on Saturday. As a result, areas of freezing drizzle will be possible Saturday night and could result in slick travel. Then, a stronger system is expected to impact the region late Sunday into Monday. Several inches of heavy, wet snow is becoming increasingly likely in much of the region except for the lowest valleys.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
645 PM UPDATE...
Forecast remains largely on track so only made minor updates to bring it up to date with current obs. See previous discussion below.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Widespread rain is moving through the entire region this evening associated with a strong upper level wave riding along a frontal boundary draped just to our northwest. Plentiful low level moisture has been able to overrun this boundary such that dew points have risen well above 32 areawide. As a result of these observations and the continued influx of warmer, more moist air with this system, we removed any snow accumulation aside from the highest peaks of the Adirondacks. Rainfall amounts will be relatively uniform in the range of 0.2" to 0.3" for most locations, with a localized amount closer to 0.5" per HRRR probability-matched mean QPF. This wave will help shift the front slightly southeastward, enough so that colder air will drain southward late tonight through tomorrow with some northerly winds developing.
As the frontal zone sits over the area tonight, we will have arguably ideal conditions for patchy, and potentially dense fog following the rainfall, especially where a snow pack is present.
Additional light rain showers will be interspersed with drizzle and fog, especially over the northern half of the region overnight where better surface convergence will reside. As the front shifts southward, so will chances of light rain showers.
Gradual seepage of colder air will also present chances for frozen precipitation, mainly up by the International Border in northern New York during the day with light snow. Unfortunately precipitation type still looks to become drizzle, and therefore, light icing will become more likely overnight as sub-freezing air expands southward. Much of our northernmost Vermont counties could see patchy ice accumulations along with northern portions of northern New York. At this time, have held off on a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow with questions to coverage of ice with marginal temperatures and relatively low precipitation chances during this period, but ingredients for slippery conditions due to a glaze of ice are there during this period.
Overall, temperatures will likely slip to near or below freezing by daybreak Sunday in most locations after an otherwise mild period.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 403 PM EST Friday...The active weather pattern continues Sunday afternoon into Monday as the next system bringing widespread precipitation moves into the region. Current guidance is depicting a primary surface low from the Great Lakes and a secondary surface low off the New England Coast. Widespread QPF amounts between of 0.7 to 1.25 inches are currently expected during this time frame. Strong flow aloft should keep the system fairly progressive, moving out of the region by Monday afternoon.
While confidence is increasing regarding the potential impacts, there is still some uncertainty, especially in regards to snowfall amounts and snow ratios. Thermal profiles continue to be tricky, with very marginal temperatures. The general idea continues to be cold rain with a possible dusting of snow in the broad valleys, while wet and heavy snowfall occurs across the higher terrain and across portions of eastern Vermont with a fairly sharp gradient. With these marginal profiles, snow ratios have been tricky, as they will be very elevational dependent.
Snowfall amounts this forecast package were similar to the previous forecast, with summits possibly seeing 6 to 8 inches, with 2 to 6 inches midslopes, and nothing to 2 inches 1000-1500 feet. One change was to slightly increase potential amounts across eastern Vermont with slightly higher snow ratios. WPC's experimental Winter Storm Outlook continues to highlight a 10- 30% chance of reaching warning criteria across portions of northern Vermont, with pockets of the northern Adirondacks having a 30-50% chance of reaching criteria. There are currently no winter headlines, but confidence is increasing that they will be needed. The potential for heavy, wet snow continues in the HWO and the forecast will continue to be monitored as we get into the hi-res guidance time frame.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 403 PM EST Friday...An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the first half of the week as the region remains under the influence of a broad upper level trough. This broad cyclonic flow will bring some cooler temperatures, cloudy skies, and occasional upslope snow showers. Some additional snow accumulations will be possible across the higher terrain, supported by colder 925mb and 850mb temperatures, adding to the growing snowpack. Snowfall amounts will be limited by available moisture. Daytime high temperatures will generally be in the mid 20s to mid 30s, which is several degrees cooler than typical early December highs. Overnight lows will drop into the teens to mid 20s.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 00z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions are present aside from SLK where ceilings are gradually falling below 1800 feet.
Widespread rain will arrive in the airspace between 19z-21z spreading northeastward. Rain will be moderate in intensity through 02z when intermittent IFR visibilities are possible due to combination of lowering ceilings and heavier rain. Overall, deterioration in conditions is expected, especially in the wake of steady rain due to plenty of low-level moisture and lack of wind. Most if not all sites will see IFR or LIFR continuously after 06Z along with periodic drizzle.
Temperatures will be above freezing so expect precipitation in the form of rain, except perhaps MSS after 12Z where snow showers will be possible. The associated light northerly/ northeasterly winds that develop there will also push into PBG by 18Z. Otherwise expect light and variable winds through the period once the south/southwest winds at SLK/MSS/MPV/BTV diminish with arrival of rain.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance DZ, Chance FZDZ.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA, Definite SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 644 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
SYNOPSIS
Widespread rain will fall through the evening before becoming scattered overnight as patchy fog and drizzle develop. As a front shifts to our south, temperatures will be steady or cool on Saturday. As a result, areas of freezing drizzle will be possible Saturday night and could result in slick travel. Then, a stronger system is expected to impact the region late Sunday into Monday. Several inches of heavy, wet snow is becoming increasingly likely in much of the region except for the lowest valleys.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
645 PM UPDATE...
Forecast remains largely on track so only made minor updates to bring it up to date with current obs. See previous discussion below.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Widespread rain is moving through the entire region this evening associated with a strong upper level wave riding along a frontal boundary draped just to our northwest. Plentiful low level moisture has been able to overrun this boundary such that dew points have risen well above 32 areawide. As a result of these observations and the continued influx of warmer, more moist air with this system, we removed any snow accumulation aside from the highest peaks of the Adirondacks. Rainfall amounts will be relatively uniform in the range of 0.2" to 0.3" for most locations, with a localized amount closer to 0.5" per HRRR probability-matched mean QPF. This wave will help shift the front slightly southeastward, enough so that colder air will drain southward late tonight through tomorrow with some northerly winds developing.
As the frontal zone sits over the area tonight, we will have arguably ideal conditions for patchy, and potentially dense fog following the rainfall, especially where a snow pack is present.
Additional light rain showers will be interspersed with drizzle and fog, especially over the northern half of the region overnight where better surface convergence will reside. As the front shifts southward, so will chances of light rain showers.
Gradual seepage of colder air will also present chances for frozen precipitation, mainly up by the International Border in northern New York during the day with light snow. Unfortunately precipitation type still looks to become drizzle, and therefore, light icing will become more likely overnight as sub-freezing air expands southward. Much of our northernmost Vermont counties could see patchy ice accumulations along with northern portions of northern New York. At this time, have held off on a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow with questions to coverage of ice with marginal temperatures and relatively low precipitation chances during this period, but ingredients for slippery conditions due to a glaze of ice are there during this period.
Overall, temperatures will likely slip to near or below freezing by daybreak Sunday in most locations after an otherwise mild period.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 403 PM EST Friday...The active weather pattern continues Sunday afternoon into Monday as the next system bringing widespread precipitation moves into the region. Current guidance is depicting a primary surface low from the Great Lakes and a secondary surface low off the New England Coast. Widespread QPF amounts between of 0.7 to 1.25 inches are currently expected during this time frame. Strong flow aloft should keep the system fairly progressive, moving out of the region by Monday afternoon.
While confidence is increasing regarding the potential impacts, there is still some uncertainty, especially in regards to snowfall amounts and snow ratios. Thermal profiles continue to be tricky, with very marginal temperatures. The general idea continues to be cold rain with a possible dusting of snow in the broad valleys, while wet and heavy snowfall occurs across the higher terrain and across portions of eastern Vermont with a fairly sharp gradient. With these marginal profiles, snow ratios have been tricky, as they will be very elevational dependent.
Snowfall amounts this forecast package were similar to the previous forecast, with summits possibly seeing 6 to 8 inches, with 2 to 6 inches midslopes, and nothing to 2 inches 1000-1500 feet. One change was to slightly increase potential amounts across eastern Vermont with slightly higher snow ratios. WPC's experimental Winter Storm Outlook continues to highlight a 10- 30% chance of reaching warning criteria across portions of northern Vermont, with pockets of the northern Adirondacks having a 30-50% chance of reaching criteria. There are currently no winter headlines, but confidence is increasing that they will be needed. The potential for heavy, wet snow continues in the HWO and the forecast will continue to be monitored as we get into the hi-res guidance time frame.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 403 PM EST Friday...An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the first half of the week as the region remains under the influence of a broad upper level trough. This broad cyclonic flow will bring some cooler temperatures, cloudy skies, and occasional upslope snow showers. Some additional snow accumulations will be possible across the higher terrain, supported by colder 925mb and 850mb temperatures, adding to the growing snowpack. Snowfall amounts will be limited by available moisture. Daytime high temperatures will generally be in the mid 20s to mid 30s, which is several degrees cooler than typical early December highs. Overnight lows will drop into the teens to mid 20s.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 00z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions are present aside from SLK where ceilings are gradually falling below 1800 feet.
Widespread rain will arrive in the airspace between 19z-21z spreading northeastward. Rain will be moderate in intensity through 02z when intermittent IFR visibilities are possible due to combination of lowering ceilings and heavier rain. Overall, deterioration in conditions is expected, especially in the wake of steady rain due to plenty of low-level moisture and lack of wind. Most if not all sites will see IFR or LIFR continuously after 06Z along with periodic drizzle.
Temperatures will be above freezing so expect precipitation in the form of rain, except perhaps MSS after 12Z where snow showers will be possible. The associated light northerly/ northeasterly winds that develop there will also push into PBG by 18Z. Otherwise expect light and variable winds through the period once the south/southwest winds at SLK/MSS/MPV/BTV diminish with arrival of rain.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance DZ, Chance FZDZ.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA, Definite SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
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