Ogdensburg, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ogdensburg, NY

June 14, 2024 11:16 AM EDT (15:16 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:08 AM   Sunset 9:14 PM
Moonrise 12:34 PM   Moonset 12:36 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ogdensburg, NY
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1022 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A cold front will help produce isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms late this morning into the afternoon. Dry weather with abundant sunshine expected this weekend. Then by Monday, warm and moist air will shift back into the region.
Temperatures warming into the upper 80s to mid 90s is expected by the middle of next week. In conjunction with high dewpoints and warm overnight conditions, heat impacts are likely next week.

As of 1013 AM EDT Friday...Other than a few showers over far southern Rutland and Windsor Counties, there is a break in the precipitation across the region. The clouds are clearing from northwest to southeast and this should allow the atmosphere to destabilize more. This will lead to some showers and storms will redevelop this afternoon across central and southern Vermont, where there will still be some frontal forcing. Isolated severe storms are still possible there. Had to increase dew points a little to line up with observations, but they will still decrease today with drier northwesterly flow and as some of the drier air aloft mixes down.

Previous Discussion...The prefrontal trough that downed several trees and powerlines along the Route 11 corridor is exiting east. Nevertheless, there are still showers developing, and one thunderstorm north of Burlington. Forecast models are not handling this very well, and have tried to broadly depict this activity also sliding east, but this could impact our chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon as well as our high temperature forecast. For now, forecast temperatures in Vermont are likely to warm to the mid 70s to lower 80s with surface dewpoints still in the upper 50s to lower 60s. So if any afternoon convection is intense enough, it could entrain some dry air and relatively fast flow aloft to produce strong to locally severe downburst winds. The highest CAPE and shear lies across southern Vermont, and that's where a marginal risk outlook (Level 1 of 5) remains for the idea of localized, short- lived severe potential. Little to no organization is expected due to the mid- level dry air.

The front slides south about 6 or 7 PM, but a few localized showers may linger as the dewpoint boundary doesn't move south until overnight. Cool north flow should bring us into the mid 40s to mid 50s, with the warmest temperatures in the lower Connecticut River Valley. Exceptionally beautiful weather is expected on Saturday. There should be a steady north wind, low dewpoints, and temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. A nice start to what should be a great weekend. PoPs nil Saturday.

As of 335 AM EDT Friday...After a spectacular day on Saturday, winds should diminish quickly after sunset. With clear skies and light winds and a 1020mb surface high building into the region, it should be a good radiational cooling night with widespread lows in the 40s, except mid to upper 30s for the sheltered colder hollows and low 50s for the immediate Champlain Valley.

Father's Day looks to be quite similar to Saturday, with lighter winds and daytime highs in the 70s. Dew points look to be a tad higher, but still generally in the 40s. Once again, with abundant sunshine and comfortable humidity, get outside and enjoy the gorgeous conditions. And if you haven't already done so, you might want to set aside some time to put in the window AC as summer heat and humidity will be making a return in a big way for much of the upcoming work week.

As of 335 AM EDT Friday...Let's cut to the chase. There will likely be a prolonged significant heat event for much of the upcoming work week, with many locations potentially experiencing a three or four day heat wave. Ensemble guidance shows good agreement that a 594+ Dm upper ridge will build across the southeast U.S., allowing for summer heat and humidity to be advected into our region. NAEFS/GEFS ensemble guidance shows height fields at 99th percentile to maximum of climatology for our region from Tuesday into Thursday. Indeed, some deterministic guidance even has 600 Dm ridge centered right over parts of New England. Daytime highs could approach or exceed 90 degrees each day from Monday into Thursday with little nighttime relief. Some locations, including Burlington, could see the first heatwave of the season, defined as three consecutive days of 90+ degree high temperatures. With dew points in the 60s, heat index values could be in the mid to upper 90 range, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. There are some indications that a cold front would be delayed or hung up across our far northern zones. If that happens, then Thursday could be another uncomfortably hot and humid day with heat index values once again in the mid to upper 90s range. Once again, at this time frame in the forecast cycle, the fly in the ointment would be the development of thunderstorms.

Given plenty of daytime instability and the potential for somewhere in the Northeast to be on the periphery of a building heat dome, there is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and ride up and over a crest of high pressure. Whether or not your location can muster three straight days of 90+ highs, or is being issued with Heat Advisories, the new experimental WPC heat risk is now highlighting the growing potential for moderate to major (level 2 to 3 out of 4) risks of heat-related impacts on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. It is not out of the question that if thunderstorms do hold off, heat index values could even push 100 degrees for part of the Champlain Valley and the St Lawrence Valley from a combination of air temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. This would result in a low but non- zero chance of extreme risk (level 4 of 4) of heat related impacts.
The extreme heat risk would be more plausible on Thursday, given the accumulated effects of prolonged heat if cooling relief does not arrive by then. Given that the major heat risk category affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration, the public is encouraged to take preventative measures such as having access to AC or minimizing vigorous outdoor activities during the peak of the heat.

Through 12Z Saturday...Mostly isolated showers cover Vermont and northern New York with one thunderstorm just north of BTV. MVFR ceilings are being noted at KMSS, and should remain through about 14-15z before lifting. A cold front will shift southeast today and has just crossed Ottawa. This front will result in a transition to northwest winds today with speeds mainly between 6 and 12 knots with a few gusts 16 to 19 knots. Isolated convection could continue to develop along and ahead of the cold front, which will pass south of the region by about 20 to 22z.
Beyond 00z, winds will become northerly at 5 knots or less, and perhaps even terrain driven at KRUT. Skies will gradually clear out.


Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 18: KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 91

June 19: KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 92 KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 93 KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 91

June 20: KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 96 KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 93 KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 92

Record Low Temperatures:

June 16: KSLK: 32/2020 Forecast 35

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 19: KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 68

June 20: KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 69 KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 64


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