Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ogdensburg, NY
May 17, 2024 4:08 AM EDT (08:08 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:26 AM Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 1:43 PM Moonset 2:16 AM |
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 170748 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 348 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Isolated showers are possible along the international border this afternoon as a stationary boundary lifts north. Chances for showers and a few rumbles of thunder increase tonight into Saturday as a weak disturbance aloft passes through the region. Drier conditions follow for Sunday and continue into early next week with temperatures warming to summer-like levels in the 80s.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...A nearly stationary boundary that has been the focus for showers and thunderstorms the past few days will finally lift north of the international border this morning as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in. Some isolated showers and maybe a rumble of thunder are possible close to the boundary across north-central and northeast Vermont this afternoon, but coverage should be fairly limited with a lack of any appreciable mid-level moisture. Otherwise, mid/high clouds will be on the increase through the day from west to east, but shouldn't inhibit steep low-level lapse rates from developing supporting warm air aloft to mix to the surface and produce widespread highs in the mid 70s with locally around 80 at KBTV.
Late in the day and into tonight, guidance has come into better agreement as compared to yesterday supporting a weak mid-level shortwave trough dropping into the region. With dry air in place it will take some time to saturate the atmosphere enough to support rain, with the best chances for showers and an isolated thunderstorm being across the western Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley through midnight. Thereafter, guidance diverges in regard to the potential for Atlantic moisture working inland on southeasterly flow interacting with the aforementioned trough pushing eastward through New England. The NAM3 and HRRR are quite aggressive with this moisture producing widespread rain showers across much of Vermont late tonight into Saturday, with some support from the ECMWF, while the GDPS and GFS are basically dry. Considering this is a large shift from yesterdays guidance, will just offer some low chance PoPs for now, but this will need to be monitored by the next shift as Saturday could end up much wetter. Low tonight should be similar to this morning in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and depending on clouds and precip, high Saturday could be as warm as the low/mid 70s if dry, or stuck in the 60s if more precipitation develops.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...Saturday night and Sunday will feature drier weather with warmer than normal temperatures. Surface and upper level ridging over the area will lead to some sunshine as well as temperatures warming into the upper 70s Sunday afternoon. Will need to keep in mind potential for fog Saturday night with partial clearing and light winds also. Precipitation chances are nil for both Saturday night and Sunday.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...Dry weather pattern with persistent warming trend will continue into the first half of next week. Monday and Tuesday will be quite warm as surface and upper level ridging build over the north country. Highs will reach the lower 80s for the first time in this calendar year across much of our area. These temperatures will lead to some surface based instability, so may need to add chances for afternoon showers but for now have a dry forecast. Better chances for precipitation will be Wednesday into Thursday as a low pressure system passes through the Great Lakes region then passes to our northwest. Still quite far out, but will monitor potential for thunderstorms with frontal passage. Latest model runs are indicating best chance for showers will be on Thursday.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 06Z Saturday...The main aviation concern for the period will be overnight MVFR/IFR fog which will be up and down at KSLK and more prevalent at KMPV and KEFK where visibility could go as low as LIFR. After 11-12Z, fog lifts and VFR is expected thereafter for the remainder of the period under SCT/BKN mid/high clouds. Winds will be nearly calm overnight with the exception of the typical southeast drainage wind at KRUT, then winds trend SSE at all sites during the daylight hours at 5-10kts.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 348 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Isolated showers are possible along the international border this afternoon as a stationary boundary lifts north. Chances for showers and a few rumbles of thunder increase tonight into Saturday as a weak disturbance aloft passes through the region. Drier conditions follow for Sunday and continue into early next week with temperatures warming to summer-like levels in the 80s.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...A nearly stationary boundary that has been the focus for showers and thunderstorms the past few days will finally lift north of the international border this morning as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in. Some isolated showers and maybe a rumble of thunder are possible close to the boundary across north-central and northeast Vermont this afternoon, but coverage should be fairly limited with a lack of any appreciable mid-level moisture. Otherwise, mid/high clouds will be on the increase through the day from west to east, but shouldn't inhibit steep low-level lapse rates from developing supporting warm air aloft to mix to the surface and produce widespread highs in the mid 70s with locally around 80 at KBTV.
Late in the day and into tonight, guidance has come into better agreement as compared to yesterday supporting a weak mid-level shortwave trough dropping into the region. With dry air in place it will take some time to saturate the atmosphere enough to support rain, with the best chances for showers and an isolated thunderstorm being across the western Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley through midnight. Thereafter, guidance diverges in regard to the potential for Atlantic moisture working inland on southeasterly flow interacting with the aforementioned trough pushing eastward through New England. The NAM3 and HRRR are quite aggressive with this moisture producing widespread rain showers across much of Vermont late tonight into Saturday, with some support from the ECMWF, while the GDPS and GFS are basically dry. Considering this is a large shift from yesterdays guidance, will just offer some low chance PoPs for now, but this will need to be monitored by the next shift as Saturday could end up much wetter. Low tonight should be similar to this morning in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and depending on clouds and precip, high Saturday could be as warm as the low/mid 70s if dry, or stuck in the 60s if more precipitation develops.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...Saturday night and Sunday will feature drier weather with warmer than normal temperatures. Surface and upper level ridging over the area will lead to some sunshine as well as temperatures warming into the upper 70s Sunday afternoon. Will need to keep in mind potential for fog Saturday night with partial clearing and light winds also. Precipitation chances are nil for both Saturday night and Sunday.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...Dry weather pattern with persistent warming trend will continue into the first half of next week. Monday and Tuesday will be quite warm as surface and upper level ridging build over the north country. Highs will reach the lower 80s for the first time in this calendar year across much of our area. These temperatures will lead to some surface based instability, so may need to add chances for afternoon showers but for now have a dry forecast. Better chances for precipitation will be Wednesday into Thursday as a low pressure system passes through the Great Lakes region then passes to our northwest. Still quite far out, but will monitor potential for thunderstorms with frontal passage. Latest model runs are indicating best chance for showers will be on Thursday.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 06Z Saturday...The main aviation concern for the period will be overnight MVFR/IFR fog which will be up and down at KSLK and more prevalent at KMPV and KEFK where visibility could go as low as LIFR. After 11-12Z, fog lifts and VFR is expected thereafter for the remainder of the period under SCT/BKN mid/high clouds. Winds will be nearly calm overnight with the exception of the typical southeast drainage wind at KRUT, then winds trend SSE at all sites during the daylight hours at 5-10kts.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
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Montague, NY,
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