Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montesano, WA

SYNOPSIS
Additional precipitation, including heavier mountain snow, expected tonight through Sunday. A brief break in the active pattern is expected Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. Additional systems will likely bring in more lowland rain and mountain snow towards the latter half of next week.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An upper level trough will continue to dig into the region today, sliding a cold front inland throughout the afternoon and evening. As snow levels drop to near 3000 ft behind the cold front, shower activity and orographically enhanced precipitation paired with onshore flow will allow for significant snowfall accumulation in the mountains. The heaviest snowfall rates will occur where convergence zone showers set up tonight, with current radar already showing enhanced echoes over the central Cascades moving towards Stevens Pass and the central Cascades. The trough will continue to dig southward into the region on Sunday, bringing in another round of widespread shower activity resulting in lowland rain and additional mountain snow.
The highest snowfall totals throughout the course of the weekend will be focused over the central and northern Cascades, where accumulations could reach 1 to 2 feet, including through Stevens Pass. Snoqualmie Pass is on track to see lower snowfall totals of 6 to 10 inches over the weekend. Accumulations southward towards Mount Rainier are on track to top out at 6 to 10 inches.

Active weather will come to an end by Sunday night as surface high pressure and an associated upper level ridge settle into the region. The first half of next week will see a period of dry conditions with some sun breaks through the clouds each afternoon.
Monday night looks to be the coldest night of the period, with overnight lows bottoming out near or below freezing across most of the area early Tuesday morning. Tuesday is on track to be the coldest day of the period, with high temperatures several degrees below normal in the low to mid 40s across the lowlands.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast models have come into slightly better agreement over potential for active weather to return by the middle of next week. Ensemble forecasts continue to differ on how long the upper level ridge will persist over the region, through solutions generally weaken the ridge through the end of the week with a return to troughing by next weekend. Operational runs indicate several shortwaves that may move through the ridge, bringing several chances for additional rounds of rain, breezy conditions, and mountain snow.

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AVIATION
Westerly flow aloft late today and tonight will become northwesterly on Sunday as an upper trough and associated frontal system moves onshore. A mixed bag of MVFR and low VFR ceilings in post-frontal showers except in and around a convergence zone in the vicinity of KPAE extending into the Cascades. Ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR areawide once again by around 06Z with areas of IFR early Sunday morning as the second of a pair of frontal system moves onshore. These conditions will persist through much of Sunday.
Gusty S/SW surface winds will continue into Sunday morning before easing.

KSEA...A secondary frontal system moving into the area will bring ceilings back down to solid MVFR in increasing rain overnight. Rain is more likely after 06Z but will become more scattered after 08Z.
There's a least a 40-50% chance of a some IFR ceilings between 12Z- 18Z Sunday as the front drags across the area. S/SW surface winds 10- 15 gusting 20-25 knots will continue into Sunday A.M. before easing.
27/Kristell

MARINE
The second of a pair of frontal systems will cross the waters tonight. Surface high pressure will rebuild across the waters Sunday afternoon and move inland Sunday night. The ridge will remain over the waters into Tuesday. Another front will reach the area Wednesday night. Small craft advisory conditions are expected across the coastal and most of the inland waters with the front tonight.

Seas around 10 feet today building to 14 to 19 feet tonight.
Seas subsiding to 12 to 14 feet Sunday night and to below 10 feet Monday.

Another round of headlines are expected by midweek with the next front. 27/Kristell

HYDROLOGY
A frontal system moved across Western Washington today resulting in heavier QPF amounts for the Cascades and Olympic mountains, generally ranging 1 to 3 inches for these regions. Showers will increase tonight into Sunday. However, lower snow levels, as well as less QPF, will only lead to minimal rise on rivers across the area. A Flood Watch continues for the Skokomish River in Mason County. JD

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Olympics.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Sunday for West Slopes North Cascades and Passes-West Slopes North Central Cascades and Passes-West Slopes South Central Cascades and Passes.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor Bar- West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet- Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.