Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montesano, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
No major forecast changes have been made this morning. See below for previous discussion and updated aviation sections.

An upper level ridge building into the northeastern Pacific this weekend will keep conditions rather calm across western Washington for the time of year. Overall, expect a cooler and drier trend through the short term, though weak disturbances will drop down into the area today and again on Monday under northwesterly flow aloft. The system today will primarily increase cloud cover across the area and will keep much of the area dry, however could see a few light showers pop up as it moves through- particularly over the mountains. Temperatures will cool a few degrees through the weekend, with afternoon highs generally expected to be in the mid to upper 40s across the interior and upper 40s to low 50s along the coast. Morning lows will be in the mid to upper 30s today but will fall within a few degrees of freezing and into the low to mid 30s Sunday and Monday.

Another disturbance will then drop down into the area on Monday under the northwesterly flow aloft. At this time,the system does not look to be very impactful, but does looks to bring better chances for some more widespread light rain to the lowlands and light snow to the mountains. Most lowland locations will likely only see a few hundredths of an inch of rain and most spots across the mountains will likely only see 1-3 inches of snow Monday night into Tuesday. Light snow accumulations will also be possible at the passes.



LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Precipitation will taper across the area throughout the day Tuesday. The pattern through the long term will be similar to that of the short term, with both ensembles and deterministic guidance suggesting the ridge of high pressure remaining situated over the northeastern Pacific through much of the week. A few weak disturbances may drop down into western Washington under the northerly flow aloft again Wednesday into Thursday, but expect any precipitation to remain mostly light. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s and morning lows will be in the 30s.

The pattern becomes more uncertain later in the week as model guidance suggests a wetter system making its way into the area as the ridge over the Pacific weakens. Ensembles hang onto the amplified ridge a little longer though, so will have to see how guidance resolves this scenario over the coming days.

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AVIATION
High pressure over the area will keep conditions largely VFR throughout the day today. Clouds will remain overhead with some breaks. Expect ENE surface winds to continue today at 4 to 7 kts. Very isolated showers are possible this afternoon, but should largely be confined to the mountains. With calm winds and clearer skies, the threat for some low cigs and potential fog remains in the forecast tonight into Sunday morning, particularly for the Chehalis Valley and portions of the Kitsap Peninsula. While it likely won't be widespread, the threat will be evaluated in the next TAFs.

KSEA...
Seeing some FEW020 this morning in VFR conditions this morning with light northeasterly flow. Expect to see those 020 clouds remain through the morning before giving way to higher level cloud decks in the afternoon. A slight chance of a shower remains in the forecast, but most of the showers that develop should be well outside of the terminal. Surface winds will be ENE at 4 to 6 kts through the day, increasing slightly to 7 kts late this evening.

21

MARINE
A ridge over the east Pacific will move inland today, with low pressure further inland moving through. Northeast winds will continue through Sunday with magnitudes remaining light. Seas will remain at 6 to 8 ft through next Tuesday. A system will sneak over the outer coastal waters then, with seas building back to 8 to 12 ft (higher seas in the outer coastal zones). A few gusty northwest winds to 25 kt are possible Tuesday with this system. Towards the end of next week, seas will return to 4 to 6 ft with light winds.

HPR

HYDROLOGY
River flooding is not expected over the next 7 days.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...None.