Nevis, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nevis, MN

June 19, 2024 10:06 AM CDT (15:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 9:26 PM
Moonrise 6:31 PM   Moonset 2:10 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nevis, MN
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Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 191502 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1002 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional chances for thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible late Thursday through Saturday.

- Active weather continues early next week, with another chance for showers and possibly strong thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

UPDATE
Issued at 1001 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A low level cumulus field is slowly dissipating or moving east as the low level moisture is trapped under our high pressure.
Most of the models have the lower levels drying out by 18z but we shall see if those clouds fully dissipate or not.



DISCUSSION
Issued at 402 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Synopsis

Upper flow remains out of the southwest today into Thursday before favoring more of a zonal tendency. The H5 trough bringing rain over the past several days is pushing off to the northeast, which will serve to end our rain chances as we approach mid morning. A period of quiet weather prevails this afternoon through late Thursday ahead of our next system that is set to move through the area Thursday night through Saturday. Zonal flow then looks to remain in place through next week, with several transient shortwaves showing up in ensemble guidance at various times. Some of these shortwaves have enough pattern support to mention the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms.

Skies are expected to gradually clear from west to east today as this mornings showers move out of the area by mid morning. High temperatures should be able to reach the low 70s where we see the best clearing, with perhaps middle to upper 60s where cloud cover is more persistent. Rain is not expected after midday across the entire forecast area.

For Thursday, 850 mb flow gradually shifts, starting northwesterly during the morning hours, then becoming southerly by late afternoon.
This will allow some degree of moisture return into the low to mid levels, although some uncertainty remains regarding PW values. This will ultimately be determined by the H5 ridge over the eastern CONUS, and how much it weakens and elongates by late Thursday. Most guidance weakens the ridge, but there is still some disagreement to what extent it weakens. A stronger ridge allows better moisture return into the Northern Plains, which will set the stage for our next system heading into Thursday night and Friday.

Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Possible Thur through Sat

Rain chances increase on Thursday from south to north as a theta-e gradient lifts northward into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
While there is still uncertainty regarding moisture availability, there is support (60 percent chance) for at least 0.50 inch of precipitation across portions of the region south of I-94. The axis of development for this precipitation will be somewhat stationary Thursday night through late Friday, when a shortwave is expected to move across the area. MUCAPE ahead of the shortwave could be upwards of 2000 J/Kg according to model soundings, which could support a mention of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, which would likely be elevated due to the overall lack of surface based instability. Shear in both the 0-3Km and 0-6Km layers are supportive of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Tornado risk will be heavily dependent upon whether or not convection becomes surface based, which would support tornadic storms should this be the case. At this time, this looks like a less likely scenario. The highest probability for severe storms will be Friday afternoon and evening, with perhaps another chance Saturday afternoon.

Active Weather Continues into Next Week

A progressive and very active shortwave pattern is expected to persist into next week. Exact timing of these shortwaves is likely to change due to the progressive nature of the H5 pattern; however, there is good agreement that there will be several shortwave passages next week. The first wave could move through the area Monday into Tuesday, with good agreement between ensembles regarding the potential for strong to severe storms. At this time, GEFS probability for surface CAPE greater than 2000 J/Kg is over 70 percent Monday afternoon and evening. Model soundings also show a shear profile supportive of discrete cells. This will depend heavily on timing, which could change in the coming updates; however, pattern support remains strong for potentially impactful weather through a good part of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites through the period. Mid level cloud cover in the vicinity of KFAR and KBJI will gradually diminish this afternoon, with scattered high clouds working back into the area tonight into Thursday morning. Winds will remain generally light, with a slow shift to the southeast through the period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPKD PARK RAPIDS MUNIKONSHOK FIELD,MN 15 sm13 minNW 0910 smMostly Cloudy57°F48°F72%30.22
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