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FXUS63 KFGF 010109 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 709 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 703 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Stratus continues working southward into the region this evening, with near overcast skies from Highway 200 and points north.
Isolated flurries remain possible, primarily along and just south of the International Border in northwest Minnesota. Given the thicker cloud cover, temperatures are holding steady in the 20s for many areas north of Highway 200, with temps falling into the teens to low 20s across the I-94 corridor in eastern North Dakota.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 232 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Key Message: - Chance for a few flurries in northwestern MN this evening, otherwise quiet and dry through the end of the work week.

West to northwesterly flow aloft continues across the region, with one weak shortwave from this morning exiting through the MN arrowhead and another subtle shortwave digging through southern Saskatchewan. This weak shortwave will head off into southwestern Ontario tonight. Plenty of cloud cover upstream, with at least the northern counties staying socked in overnight. Around a 20 percent chance for clouds lower than 3000 ft by the early morning hours.
The HRRR brings some very light precip into portions of northwestern MN this evening. Think chances for anything measurable are very low, but could see a few brief flurries along the international border as the shortwave moves through. Included a mention but no impacts are expected.

Flow becomes west to southwesterly tomorrow as the next upper trough digs into the Rockies. Weak surface high pressure moves to the east and winds return to the south to southeast. Clouds in the north should be decreasing a bit by daytime tomorrow but more clouds coming in across the south with waves going through the Central Plains. Temps will be on the warmer side of average in the upper 20s to mid 30s, and lows Friday night around 20 degrees.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Ahead of an upper wave arriving in the northern plains late this weekend dry westerly upper level flow will switch to southwesterly. As a sfc low develops to our south increasing cloud cover with help to limit highs this weekend to the low to mid 30s which is still near to slightly above average. With the expected track of the sfc low we are not anticipating any precip across the area. As the upper low and attendant sfc low track east by monday flow begins to turn more northwest/northerly ahead of building western ridging. However this northwest flow is expected to be relatively short lived as the the ridge flattens allowing more zonal flow latter in the week. It is in the in between period of Late Monday into Wednesday that ensemble guidance continues to show chances for precip across the Dakotas and Minnesota though with a large spread in possible outcomes confidence is low. The overall consensus averages out to a fairly light event anyways.
Past wednesday when flow becomes more zonal aloft there is good agreement on highs reaching the mid 30s in the north and low 40s in the south with the NBM percentile reflecting this. This trend of above normal temps looks to continue well in the December with ridging likely being the dominant feature in the west with short duration breaks.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR conditions prevail at all sites this evening. Low to mid-level stratus continues to push southeastward, and could bring MVFR CIGs to the area for the overnight period and into early Friday morning; however, Upstream observations are mainly VFR.
Otherwise, generally light westerly winds are expected through the period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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